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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Must be.  Not white women specific, but looks like she does well with women in general, so that should ease some minds.

SEX__1_.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&w=2400

That chart is entirely inconclusive regarding how white suburban women might have answered. Harris will win the women vote, Trump will win with men. The questions about white suburban women is a subset of that.

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Posted
Just now, SydneyCarton said:

And most of that baggage was the right hating on her because she was a woman who tried to have a prominent place in politics. They haaaaaaaated that. 

Maybe, but they used to make fun of her on SNL when she was the First Lady.  I think it was more time in the spotlight, and she had the last name Clinton.

1 minute ago, troph said:

That chart is entirely inconclusive regarding how white suburban women might have answered. Harris will win the women vote, Trump will win with men. The questions about white suburban women is a subset of that.

Yes, but statistically, it has to have as many, or more suburban white women to top both Biden and Warren.

Posted
5 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

I don't believe that.  Hillary was a flawed candidate, and her gender was not the reason she lost.

She lost because people wanted someone new, and she was lugging around 20+ years of baggage.

Confused Emma Stone GIF by SAG Awards

Posted
Just now, DixonHur said:

Maybe, but they used to make fun of her on SNL when she was the First Lady.  I think it was more time in the spotlight, and she had the last name Clinton.

most if not all of her 20 years of baggage was indirect criticism of her gender. she's too ambitious, she was trying to be a policy setter in HIS administration, she's not likable, her pants suits, stand by her man, she's not just a stand by her man, why didn't she leave Bill, etc. etc. etc.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And she ran a bad campaign and Comey threw a huge wrench into things 

That’s also true. She also got fucking wrecked by white women. 

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Posted
Just now, hobbes2702 said:

That’s also true. She also got fucking wrecked by white women. 

And the coalitions have changed since 8 years ago. College educated women vote Dem, not overwhelmingly, but more than they did in 2016. Remember that Trump winning ended up flipping a lot of them to Dem

This board comprised of mostly men just go in circles about how women hate women and won’t vote for women. 

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Posted
Just now, troph said:

why didn't she leave Bill

I think this was a biggie.  But let's be honest, even if he could have run, Bill Clinton wouldn't have won either and, as far as I know he doesn't have a vagina.

Not many people, outside the beltway, liked Hillary. It wasn't just women.

Posted (edited)

my wife and I play tennis in a white lady tennis league in an area that qualifies as suburban. There are no men involved at all. So there is no dampener. Most of the time it's fun, but when decision-making and control is up for grabs, holy shit you have never seen more tearing down of one another than with a group of white suburban women. I stay the fuck out of it.

HRC lost from a combination of things, but suburban white women not voting enough for her was a top 3-5 reason.

Now I will also say that we have had conversations about abortion access, etc. and the conversations are short and not in depth but more conservative women than you might think are pretty pissed about Dobbs mostly for very selfish reasons - their daughters. 

So Dobbs is a game changer on this point.

Edited by troph
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Posted

More from Deadline Whitehouse

 

Trunp campaign really, really, really wants to run against Biden. Their campaign has been strategically put together to run solely against Biden. It’s why they believe they are doing well with their targets and why the campaign really believes they are going to win in a “landslide” and this election is over. The last thing they want is a change at the top of the ticket.

There was a poll done (sorry I’m trying to remember this from listening while at the gym) about should Biden stay in a drop out and Biden’s strongest group of wanting him to stay in was Republicans lol. 

 

 

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Posted

I think there is too much  “all or nothing” thinking around racism and misogyny. There are ranges and levels of both. 

Sure, there are a lot of people who simply don’t like the idea of a women or black in a position of authority, but a lot of the racism and misogyny out there is around preconceived notions about a person based upon their race or sex. If the candidate demonstrates competence, that can be overcome. It’s why Obama got to the top and why Hillary almost did. 

Harris can win by going apeshit on Trump’s flaws, misdeeds, etc while at the same time playing up her law and order side and slightly tamping down any extreme left positions. She’ll win the middle with that. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

And the coalitions have changed since 8 years ago. College educated women vote Dem, not overwhelmingly, but more than they did in 2016. Remember that Trump winning ended up flipping a lot of them to Dem

This board comprised of mostly men just go in circles about how women hate women and won’t vote for women. 

You’re not wrong. My evidence is purely anecdotal from a life of interacting with suburban white women. They might be the worst subset of people on the planet outside of the Dutch. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And the coalitions have changed since 8 years ago. College educated women vote Dem, not overwhelmingly, but more than they did in 2016. Remember that Trump winning ended up flipping a lot of them to Dem

This board comprised of mostly men just go in circles about how women hate women and won’t vote for women. 

I think Dobbs changes everything on the suburban white women vote this go round for sure. So if not clear, I'm speaking historically.

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Posted
1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

You’re not wrong. My evidence is purely anecdotal from a life of interacting with suburban white women. They might be the worst subset of people on the planet outside of the Dutch. 

Outside of really nasty people, like objectively really nasty people, I don't think you are wrong.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I think there is too much  “all or nothing” thinking around racism and misogyny. There are ranges and levels of both. 

Sure, there are a lot of people who simply don’t like the idea of a women or black in a position of authority, but a lot of the racism and misogyny out there is around preconceived notions about a person based upon their race or sex. If the candidate demonstrates competence, that can be overcome. It’s why Obama got to the top and why Hillary almost did. 

Harris can win by going apeshit on Trump’s flaws, misdeeds, etc while at the same time playing up her law and order side and slightly tamping down any extreme left positions. She’ll win the middle with that. 

Yeah, I think the vast majority of racists and misogynists are voting Trump already.  I don't think either Harris' race or gender matter much.

Her biggest obstacle, in terms of GOP messaging, will be the fact that she was Biden's Border Czar.  But I think that's pretty easy to overcome by simply counting the number of times the GOP squashed border bills.

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Posted

Claire McCaskill and Jen Psaki are on msnbc and both are saying everyone they are talking with say it's Kamala, even though nobody has said that publicly. 

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Posted

I’m not sitting here imagining all the Moms 4 Liberty suburban white women voting Dem. But there are a lot of very normal ones who will. Because of Dobbs. Because Project 2025. Etc. 

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Posted
Just now, mchookem said:

he'll, i am a suburban white woman, and i hate suburban white women. 

I was posting about this topic and cringing hoping I wouldn't offend. I'm glad we are like-minded. I routinely turn down invites to all women things simply to avoid the nonsense. give me my queer people, guys or mixed company but all women, yeah I'm out.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Claire McCaskill and Jen Psaki are on msnbc and both are saying everyone they are talking with say it's Kamala, even though nobody has said that publicly. 

I have a strong preference for the mini-primary idea. I think it will produce a stronger candidate in the end, even if it's Kamala prevailing in that contest. Everyone tries out their best Trump attack. 

Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I’m not sitting here imagining all the Moms 4 Liberty suburban white women voting Dem. But there are a lot of very normal ones who will. Because of Dobbs. Because Project 2025. Etc. 

not to go backward but this election for the Dems is two things (with the candidate third):

1. anti-trump

2. Dobbs/Project 2025

3. the candidate

I didn't like the wildcard aspect of replacing Biden but hell, this thing will be won or lost on points 1 and 2 and I agree I think Harris will clean house with the women vote this time.

Edited by troph
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Posted
1 minute ago, horncyclist said:

I have a strong preference for the mini-primary idea. I think it will produce a stronger candidate in the end, even if it's Kamala prevailing in that contest. Everyone tries out their best Trump attack. 

Agree. She’s much stronger emerging from a contested convention, even if Kayfabe

Posted
Just now, Zonahorn said:

Trump is on oxy

Did Vance steal it from his mom Who stole it from the clinic where she worked?

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Posted (edited)

For those who don't think a lot of the Hillary hatred was based on misogyny, you probably never browsed CR on the old board. Some of their favorite memes were based on her riding a broomstick, wearing a witch's hat, etc. It was full-bore brain-dead he-man women-hater shit like this:

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image.png.e86c1d36c4a3a2a597f63e7806652d23.png

image.thumb.png.0caf381473709af9dac09fb13f50c553.png

 

Edited by bolverk
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Posted
5 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

I have a strong preference for the mini-primary idea. I think it will produce a stronger candidate in the end, even if it's Kamala prevailing in that contest. Everyone tries out their best Trump attack. 

This is the worst idea and your preference is wrong. So there 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Trump is on oxy

Nah. His sycophants are just going to press the “he’s a changed man, touched by god” angle. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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Posted
4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Agree. She’s much stronger emerging from a contested convention, even if Kayfabe

No one comes out stronger from a contested convention. It makes the party look like a bunch of morons 

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Posted
1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

No one comes out stronger from a contested convention. It makes the party look like a bunch of morons 

You’re going to, what, break up the Biden campaign infrastructure amongst candidates or make them sit around and wait a month to see who wins and if the candidate wants them and what they’ve been doing/building for 4 years? And what about all the money and booked TV time if Harris doesn’t win it?

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Posted
28 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Nah. His sycophants are just going to press the “he’s a changed man, touched by god” angle. 

After 9 years the media still cannot help themselves.

Posted
17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I’m not sitting here imagining all the Moms 4 Liberty suburban white women voting Dem. But there are a lot of very normal ones who will. Because of Dobbs. Because Project 2025. Etc. 

Lou Dobbs is dead.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, troph said:

not to go backward but this election for the Dems is two things (with the candidate third):

1. anti-trump

2. Dobbs/Project 2025

3. the candidate

I didn't like the wildcard aspect of replacing Biden but hell, this thing will be won or lost on points 1 and 2 and I agree I think Harris will clean house with the women vote this time.

The issue I have with this logic is you're relying 100% on Dems to win the election.

I think anti-Trump is last for many independents.  My ranking would be:

1. the candidate

2. Dobbs - 

3. Project 2025 

4. Trump

Separated Dobbs and Project 2025 because I think they influence different people different ways (aside from the obvious national abortion ban in P2025).

Trump is last because I think a lot of us see him as nothing more than a puppet at this point.  We're not worried about him as much as the people surrounding him...IE Project 2025.

Trump, if he actually followed his beliefs, wouldn't be that bad.  He doesn't care about abortion, and when he gets off message on immigration, he has a few decent ideas, like automatic Green Cards for immigrants who earn a degree in the US.  Then his handlers scold him and the next day he changes course to propose an immigrant fighting league.

Posted
Just now, DixonHur said:

The issue I have with this logic is you're relying 100% on Dems to win the election.

I think anti-Trump is last for many independents.  My ranking would be:

1. the candidate

2. Dobbs - 

3. Project 2025 

4. Trump

Separated Dobbs and Project 2025 because I think they influence different people different ways (aside from the obvious national abortion ban in P2025).

Trump is last because I think a lot of us see him as nothing more than a puppet at this point.  We're not worried about him as much as the people surrounding him...IE Project 2025.

Trump, if he actually followed his beliefs, wouldn't be that bad.  He doesn't care about abortion, and when he gets off message on immigration, he has a few decent ideas, like automatic Green Cards for immigrants who earn a degree in the US.  Then his handlers scold him and the next day he changes course to propose an immigrant fighting league.

I don't believe those promises for one second

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Posted

Just watched the Biden/Trump episode of Kill Tony. 

omfg. Tears of laughter. Do yourself a favor and go watch it. /csb

Posted
12 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Trump is on oxy, and the person that wrote this is smoking crack

that's a bunch of horseshit. Trump's number one negative is he is a total piece of shit. His campaign is smart to try and soften his image. It's bullshit.

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Posted

Maybe somewhere in that narcissistic brain of his the ear shot made Trump realize what a dupe and a patsy he really is. 
 

I’ve never believed for a moment that Trump has any strong convictions behind the shit he says. Trump is it for one thing…Trump. He’s just a useful narcissist and he got fed a bunch of shit to say that fed that insatiable fire. 
 

Now maybe he realizes what he’s stepped in. 
 

 

naaaaah

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Posted
2 minutes ago, wood said:

Just watched the Biden/Trump episode of Kill Tony. 

omfg. Tears of laughter. Do yourself a favor and go watch it. /csb

It would be helpful if a link were provided for those of us who are unfamiliar with Kill Tony.

Posted
3 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

The issue I have with this logic is you're relying 100% on Dems to win the election.

I think anti-Trump is last for many independents.  My ranking would be:

1. the candidate

2. Dobbs - 

3. Project 2025 

4. Trump

Separated Dobbs and Project 2025 because I think they influence different people different ways (aside from the obvious national abortion ban in P2025).

 

I think you underestimate the anti-trump sentiment. we have soft Dems now who are Dems for anti-trump only. Think the former RNC chair, think the Lincoln Project. Anti-trump is the number one issue for men who will vote for the Dem nominee, regardless of their enthusiasm. 

For women it's no worse than second.

Anti-trump is number 1, I'm 100% convinced of that.

 

 

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Posted
Just now, Surly Bevo said:

Maybe somewhere in that narcissistic brain of his the ear shot made Trump realize what a dupe and a patsy he really is. 
 

I’ve never believed for a moment that Trump has any strong convictions behind the shit he says. Trump is it for one thing…Trump. He’s just a useful narcissist and he got fed a bunch of shit to say that fed that insatiable fire. 
 

Now maybe he realizes what he’s stepped in. 
 

 

naaaaah

I believe Trump is an opportunist who doesn't let his personal beliefs get in the way of his ambition... or his wallet. 

Posted
1 minute ago, troph said:

I think you underestimate the anti-trump sentiment.

Fair, but I think you overestimate it.  

I know too many people in my circle of friends who hate Trump but would rather sit the election out than vote for Biden. 

Posted
1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Not resigning and not endorsing isn’t ideal imo.  Have to look like a well oiled machine. This already looks like chaos.  An open convention will further that. 

I didn’t figure he would resign. But he still has to run the country. If he’s not going to endorse Kamala THOUGH thats  an ugly way to end it for him and the party.

 Especially after going to BET and NAACP in the last few days and asking for their support telling them what all he has done for them. 

he will be around the WH as a bitter reminder. Hey I would be bitter too. But goddamn it, Joe, you shouldn’t have run again.

He really is living up to Obama’s alleged statement.

Speaking to a fellow Democrat about Joe Biden being the party’s nominee in 2020, Obama famously warned, “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f–k things up.” 

Posted
1 minute ago, DixonHur said:

Fair, but I think you overestimate it.  

I know too many people in my circle of friends who hate Trump but would rather sit the election out than vote for Biden. 

And how many of them would vote for Kamala Harris?

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Posted
Just now, DixonHur said:

Fair, but I think you overestimate it.  

I know too many people in my circle of friends who hate Trump but would rather sit the election out than vote for Biden. 

to be fair, more than half the country won't vote no matter what. they are allowed to have opinions too.

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Nicole44 said:

Especially after going to BET and NAACP in the last few days and asking for their support telling them what all he has done for them. 

His big quote from the NAACP was that President and vice president of the United States IS a black job. Not endorsing Kamala would be stabbing them in the back, because he’s saying she’s qualified but then not endorsing for her the job she’s in actually in line for 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, bolverk said:

It would be helpful if a link were provided for those of us who are unfamiliar with Kill Tony.

I didn't have one when I posted. My kid watches it all the time and I was watching with him. A very quick google search led me here ...

ETA: btw iirc there is no Kill Tony thread on the surl, which absolutely blows my mind. It might be the most surly-esque show/podcast ever.

 

Edited by wood
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Posted
20 minutes ago, bolverk said:

For those who don't think a lot of the Hillary hatred was based on misogyny, you probably never browsed CR on the old board. Some of their favorite memes were based on her riding a broomstick, wearing a witch's hat, etc. It was full-bore brain-dead he-man women-hater shit like this:

image.png.3fe0ccd7166d82e288776fa5674dfa28.png

image.thumb.png.12add926a1c22fdb34365db23b3eed8c.png

image.thumb.png.bc1904c27b2589330977445024903892.png

image.png.e86c1d36c4a3a2a597f63e7806652d23.png

image.thumb.png.0caf381473709af9dac09fb13f50c553.png

 

And some people who were exposed to that garbage over the years came away thinking that she’s just got so much “baggage.”

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Posted
1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

And how many of them would vote for Kamala Harris?

all of them will say it.

Just now, DixonHur said:

I think all of them.

will all of them actually vote?

 

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