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Posted
38 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

Iran is an irrelevant blip for "us", no need to act as if Israel's defense is tied up with America's national security. 

CENTCOM’s response to Iran’s attack is concrete evidence otherwise but it’s neat to live in an alt-timeline where it didn’t happen I guess. 

Posted
31 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

CENTCOM’s response to Iran’s attack is concrete evidence otherwise but it’s neat to live in an alt-timeline where it didn’t happen I guess. 

we know that happened, but it's unnecessary for practical purposes - more of a political move.  Jordan provided protection also, for the same political reason. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

we know that happened, but it's unnecessary for practical purposes - more of a political move.  Jordan provided protection also, for the same political reason. 

National security is politics. 

Posted
19 hours ago, Victorious1 said:

The only countries that play by the "rules of the game" are USA, UK, France, Germany and to a degree USSR.  

Do you remember the '72 Olympics in Munich?  Black September kidnapped Israeli athletes from the Olympic Village and things went south.  What was Israel's response?  They sent the Mossad after the Black September members and killed them to send a message...'you don't play by the rules and neither do we".

Remember the Vietnam War?  The US played by the rules but the enemy did not and we pretty much got our asses kicked. 

What do you think would happen to Israel in the Middle East if they "played by the rules" while Iran and everyone else played their own game?

 

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Posted
56 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

They can easily handle a “war” in Gaza, a “war” in Lebanon, and the real war against Iran in mainland Iran against a nuclear paper tiger. 

Not without US support. If you think we're going to back anyone in a boots on the ground war in Iran you are out of your fucking mind.

Posted
37 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

They can without US support. Certainly without our putting fucking boots on the ground in Iran, which nobody suggested and is an insane proposition. 

So you're contending that Israel--a nation of less than 10M people--could "easily" handle a land invasion of Iran, a nation with nearly 10 times the population and with several countries and/or bodies of water between it and Israel?

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Yes. At least get Iran to agree to a ceasefire and get it to (temporarily) cease funding terror campaigns. I’m not sure some of yall realize how bad ass Israeli military is. Head to head, Israel would absolutely obliterate Iran. Is this a real question?

And how do you imagine Israel will get boots on the ground in Iran? Do you genuinely believe Jordan, Syria, Iraq or other Muslim nations would simply allow Israel unfettered access to their airspace, or that they'd be OK with columns of Israeli tanks and troops driving through their borders?

Israel doesn't have much of an amphibious surface fleet AFAIK, and it's not as if Egypt would allow one passage through the Suez, anyway. But the thought of an Israeli invasion force slowly working its way around the Arabian Peninsula definitely brings the chuckles.

This is entertaining, so please keep the answers coming.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Braff Zacklin said:

And how do you imagine Israel will get boots on the ground in Iran? Do you genuinely believe Jordan, Syria, Iraq or other Muslim nations would simply allow Israel unfettered access to their airspace, or that they'd be OK with columns of Israeli tanks and troops driving through their borders?

Same way my neighbors were okay with me trenching their yards on the way to and from HEB. When it is midnight and you absolutely, positively have to get some Doritos.

Edited by Bevo
Posted
Just now, Rex Kramer said:

I never said their feet would touch the ground. They don’t need to. 

The discussion is literally about invasion. What do you think that entails?

Just now, Rex Kramer said:

And yes, they’d have unfettered access to Iran. 

You're out of your fucking mind. Did you just learn the middle east exists last week?

Will Ferrell Crazy Pills GIF

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Posted
5 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

National security is politics. 

There are practical politics and symbolic politics (ie Jordan's actions as one example). Israel doesn't need US military personnel engaging their enemies, perfectly capable of utterly smashing all of them in quick time - witness the last 75 years. 

Posted
58 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Yes. At least get Iran to agree to a ceasefire and get it to (temporarily) cease funding terror campaigns. I’m not sure some of yall realize how bad ass Israeli military is. Head to head, Israel would absolutely obliterate Iran. Is this a real question?

Actual photo of Israeli army massing right now:

 

image.png.2a89d2b6512d88a36e2a8fcef4b1965b.png

 

Posted
30 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Yes, an asleep-at-the-wheel disengaged military. They’re now fully engaged. Do yall doubt their capabilities?

Look at the only Israeli designed MBT (Merkava) to get a little insight into how their military is structured.  Small unit tactics and training, they are exceptional.  Intel gathering and FFF (find, fix, finish), they are exceptional.  

If you expand that out to "big army", see my Merkava example - it is all predicated on the defense of their land.  The Iron Dome - a defensive system.  The Merkava, a defensive-minded tank designed with the engine in the front and a fixed cannon for static, defensive scenarios.  They enact their defenses much like the Americans did in the battle of the bulge.  Quick transitions of firepower moved along multiple axis' to coordinate and maneuver firepower as needed.  This draws from past experiences of fighting a defensive war on multiple fronts.  After taking advantage of gains, they did take the Sinai Peninsula.  The point being they are not designed for sustained, offensive invasion-style attacks over such a significant amount of land & time.  

The second they tried this, the biggest fear would be attacks from the rear from the usual suspects that they defend against today.

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Posted
37 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Yeah, read that the other day.  Really good piece with some interesting insight into what should be a perilous time in Iran....but won't be.  Like everywhere on earth in this current timeline, the hard right hardliners will end up winning, because rational moderates get steamrolled.  And the Iranian people just don't have what it takes to do what is necessary: kill the fascists.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Rex Kramer said:

They don’t need this. If they throw the might of their Air Force at the Iranians, and drone the shit out of them, they will capitulate, and quickly. There’s a reason they haven’t done this, but they’re considering it on an increasing basis. If they did they’d rout those pig fuckers in weeks and possibly days. 

History books say otherwise - sustained air attacks without commensurate pressure from the ground only serve to galvanize the attacked.  There's a reason for the phrase that only the infantry win wars.  

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Posted
1 hour ago, Rex Kramer said:

They don’t need this. If they throw the might of their Air Force at the Iranians, and drone the shit out of them, they will capitulate, and quickly. There’s a reason they haven’t done this, but they’re considering it on an increasing basis. If they did they’d rout those pig fuckers in weeks and possibly days. 

I wish I was crazy enough to be this confidently wrong.

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Posted
3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, read that the other day.  Really good piece with some interesting insight into what should be a perilous time in Iran....but won't be.  Like everywhere on earth in this current timeline, the hard right hardliners will end up winning, because rational moderates get steamrolled.  And the Iranian people just don't have what it takes to do what is necessary: kill the fascists.

What's interesting in the link I provided yesterday, the Iranian revolution was of intellectuals and non-right wingers - they got hoodwinked.

Posted
3 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

If Israel shoulder checks Iran, would that be crossing a red line?

 

If the elbow is tucked in, it is perfectly legal.

Posted
16 minutes ago, Born to Run said:
28 minutes ago, Bevo said:
 
If the elbow is tucked in, it is perfectly legal.

What about in left field?

 

In left field or out of left field? It makes a big difference. Plus it could cause cross-sport metaphors which are bad so don't.

Posted
10 hours ago, Bevo said:

Same way my neighbors were okay with me trenching their yards on the way to and from HEB. When it is midnight and you absolutely, positively have to get some Doritos.

Wait... The HEB in Tehran is open at midnight?

Posted
19 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

I wish I was crazy enough to be this confidently wrong.

I just know if I could get Ana de Armas and Jessica Alba in the same room with me we'd have a threesome.

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Posted
8 hours ago, gernblansten said:

I just know if I could get Ana de Armas and Jessica Alba in the same room with me we'd have a threesome.

Must be nice to get within 500 feet of Jessica Alba without having to worry about a restraining order.

Posted

Great deep dive on the performance of the F-15E agains the Iranian missiles and drones— and what that means for the F-15EX program.  The much discussed proposed sale of several billion dollars in jets and munitions has a big chunk dedicated to F-15EX and air to air capabilities. 
 

https://www.twz.com/air/f-15e-strike-eagles-defense-of-israel-bolsters-the-case-for-f-15ex

Quote

The EX can lug up to 12 AIM-120 AMRAAMsout of the box, which is 50% more than its Eagle predecessors. This upgrade is due to the activation of stations one and nine under its outer wings. Fly-by-wire controls largely made this possible with the introduction of the F-15SA for Saudi Arabia, which evolved into Qatar's F-15QA and then into the F-15EX. New wing structures are also featured in the latest models, including the F-15QA and the F-15EX. You can read all about what it's like to fly the latest Eagle iteration in this past special feature.

 

Quote

Nothing else in the USAF's fighter inventory can employ 12 air-to-air missiles. The F-16 carries half that, while the F-35 is limited to four AIM-120s internally, with this hopefullygrowing to six in the coming years. F-35 configurations with more missiles carried externally have been depicted, but never realized operationally. Doing so would rob the stealth fighter of its greatest advantage and would further bog down its kinematic performance. Still, for some mission sets, this is worth pursuing and the F-35 could be a valuable player in this regard.

 A look at the development chain and clients shows that this is a response to Iran. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Great deep dive on the performance of the F-15E agains the Iranian missiles and drones— and what that means for the F-15EX program.  The much discussed proposed sale of several billion dollars in jets and munitions has a big chunk dedicated to F-15EX and air to air capabilities. 
 

https://www.twz.com/air/f-15e-strike-eagles-defense-of-israel-bolsters-the-case-for-f-15ex

 

 A look at the development chain and clients shows that this is a response to Iran. 

The War Zone (sponsored by Boeing)

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Posted

I’m way behind on this, but was it Israel fucks with Iran, and there response is to announce before hand that some slow moving drone weapons would be headed to Israel expecting them to be knocked out, and conclusion being “message sent”? Man, humans can be really stupid sometimes.

Posted
3 hours ago, 'stache said:

I’m way behind on this, but was it Israel fucks with Iran, and there response is to announce before hand that some slow moving drone weapons would be headed to Israel expecting them to be knocked out, and conclusion being “message sent”? Man, humans can be really stupid sometimes.

It was basically choreographed. Weird stuff but it is what it is. I guess I can understand it at some level.

Posted
3 hours ago, 'stache said:

I’m way behind on this, but was it Israel fucks with Iran, and there response is to announce before hand that some slow moving drone weapons would be headed to Israel expecting them to be knocked out, and conclusion being “message sent”? Man, humans can be really stupid sometimes.

10 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

It was basically choreographed. Weird stuff but it is what it is. I guess I can understand it at some level.

All about pride.

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Posted
8 hours ago, Rockwell Torrey said:

The War Zone (sponsored by Boeing)

Hold the Fort! Defense focused media gets ad revenue from defense industry? 
 

What’s next, GM advertises in Car and Driver? 

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

All about pride.

Ballistic missiles are not slow-moving drones. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

I assume:

Iran’s top nuclear facilities, especially the installations at Natanz in central Isfahan, have been subject to multiple significant sabotage attacks blamed on Israel amid a shadow war in more than a decade that also saw several Iranian nuclear scientists assassinated.

But Israel has never directly attacked Iranian soil, let alone its nuclear facilities.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/18/iran-threatens-tit-for-tat-bomb-run-if-israel-attacks-nuclear-facilities

 

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Posted

https://www.nti.org/education-center/facilities/natanz-enrichment-complex/

 

Natanz is Iran’s primary enrichment facility and houses both the commercial Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) and the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP). 1 The facility consists of three underground buildings, two of which are designed to hold 50,000 centrifuges, and six above ground buildings. Two of the above ground buildings are 2,500 meter halls used for gas centrifuge assemblies. 2 The nuclear material and enrichment equipment located at the FEP and PFEP are under IAEA safeguards. 3

Iran covertly moved its gas centrifuge research, development, and assembly operations to Natanz from the Kalaye Electric Company in 2002. 4 The operation did not remain secret for long, however, because the opposition group The National Council of Resistance of Iran publicly identified the site in August 2002. The revelations prompted Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, President of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, to reveal Iran’s intention to develop the full nuclear fuel cycle at the 2002 IAEA General Conference. 5 During IAEA Director General Mohammed El-Baradei’s follow-up visit in February 2003, Tehran officially declared that it was constructing the FEP and the PFEP at Natanz. 6

In October 2003, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the European Union and Iran commenced negotiations on suspending Iran’s enrichment and conversion activities. 7 In addition to ceasing such activities, Iran agreed to halt manufacturing and assembling centrifuge parts at its enrichment installations. 8 The suspension was maintained through the duration of talks with the E3 and EU in November 2004. 9 Following the election of the conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in August 2005, however, Iran began to backtrack on cooperative agreements with the IAEA. On January 10, 2006, Iran broke the seals safeguarding Natanz and resumed its enrichment program. Shortly thereafter, Iran introduced UF6 into the gas centrifuges at the PFEP, and by February 2007 it had started feeding UF6 into the cascades installed at the FEP. 10

With negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program deadlocked in 2006, the George W. Bush administration initiated a cyber-warfare operation, code-named “Olympic Games,” aimed at sabotaging Iran’s growing enrichment activities through a slow barrage of cyber-strikes. 11 Popularly known as “Stuxnet,” the virus, which was developed with the help of Israeli intelligence agencies, targeted the computer systems that commanded the centrifuges at Natanz. Designed to produce continuous, incremental damage rather than a catastrophic, one-hit strike, the virus caused the centrifuge rotors to spin uncontrollably fast. These substantial increases in velocity led to a destructive rise in the rotor wall pressure, thereby causing the centrifuges to break. 12 After assuming office in 2009, President Obama intensified the program, gradually increasing the rate and severity of attacks on Natanz’s enrichment complex. According to IAEA reports, between the end of 2009 and early 2010 Iran decommissioned and replaced approximately 1,000 centrifuges at Natanz due to damage from the Stuxnet virus. 13 In November 2010, Iran temporarily suspended enrichment activities at the FEP amid growing issues with centrifuge operations. Estimates of Stuxnet’s success vary, as some Obama administration officials believe the cyber-attack delayed Iran’s nuclear development by 18 months to two years. Other assessments are more critical of Stuxnet’s significance and point to the quick recovery of centrifuge activity at Natanz following the facility’s brief shutdown. 14

As negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program proceeded in fits and starts, the Iranian government notified the IAEA in January 2013 that it planned to install more than 3,000 of the country’s advanced centrifuges, the IR-2m. 15 More durable and efficient than the IR-1 model, these centrifuges were capable of significantly increasing Iran’s output of enriched uranium. 16 The declaration signaled another step by Iran towards expanding its enrichment program in violation of IAEA Board of Governors and UN Security Council resolutions.

On November 24, 2013, Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) concluded a Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) to place a temporary freeze on Iran’s nuclear program and lay the groundwork for a more sweeping, long-term agreement. Under the JPOA, Iran agreed to cap its uranium enrichment operations at Natanz, begin diluting its LEU stockpile, and discontinue the installation of new centrifuges at the FEP. It also gave the IAEA broader access to the facilities at Natanz. 17

Using the JPOA as a foundation for a more comprehensive agreement, Iran and the P5+1 concluded the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on 14 July 2015, a far-reaching 25-year settlement that constrained Iran’s nuclear capacity in exchange for sanctions relief. In accordance with the JCPOA, Iran agreed to remove approximately two-thirds of Natanz’s centrifuges, limit uranium enrichment to 3.67 percent, and down-blend or sell the majority of its LEU stockpile. Iran is also required to provide the IAEA daily access to Natanz for continuous monitoring of enrichment activities and centrifuge production. 18

In April 2021, the Natanz site experienced a blackout that Iran blamed on sabotage by Israel. This event created uncertainty for the diplomatic efforts underway to attempt restoration of the JCPOA.19

An Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) report revealed that as of October 2022, Iran had installed 4,000 advanced centrifuges across its enrichment facilities, which was an increase of 44% from late August. At the Natanz site, new deployments included 6 IR-2m cascades and one IR-4 cascade.20

 

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