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FINAL 2024 CFB polls/rankings - Texas #3/ #4 /#3 (CFP/AP/Coaches)


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Posted
Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

Texas beats Indiana by at least 17

That's not something I'm going to disagree with but we wouldn't get 10 against them in Indiana. 

Spreads are extremely predictable - just go to the Sagarin ratings and see what the difference is.

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Posted
Just now, ztejas said:

That's not something I'm going to disagree with but we wouldn't get 10 against them in Indiana. 

Spreads are extremely predictable - just go to the Sagarin ratings and see what the difference is.

Using Sargarin to say that would be the Vegas spread is wild.

Posted
1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Using Sargarin to say that would be the Vegas spread is wild.

It is literally the most accurate predictor of Vegas lines. His model has Texas 8 better than IU. On the road drop 3. Texas -5 - it sure as shit isn't getting to 10. 

Were you dropped on the head as a child?

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Posted
Just now, ztejas said:

It is literally the most accurate predictor of Vegas lines. His model has Texas 8 better than IU. On the road drop 3. Texas -5 - it sure as shit isn't getting to 10. 

Were you dropped on the head as a child?

A road game doesn't drop 5 pts...homes are usually worth max 3. Not a good model.

Posted
1 hour ago, BurntEyes said:

This is a terrible take.

IU has been working nearly every opponent they've played. 

They would have soundly beaten:

CSU 

Did beat Michigan 

UTSA

ULM

MSU

OUSux

Georgia (this would be a pick em with the 3 int QB)

Vandy

Florida

The only one in possible doubt is Georgia, if you think IU would have lost any of those others you haven't been watching them. They're the best team D, O and ST in the B1G save perhaps Oregon.

So either Texas and IU are both dog shit or you don't know wtf you're talking about.

 

 

Indiana has been in one score games in the fourth against Maryland, Northwestern and Michigan and would have lost yesterday if Michigan had a QB capable of throwing for 200 yards. Let’s see Indiana beat Ohio State before crowning them Big 10 elite. 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I'll be the first to admit our SEC schedule this year is more advantageous than most competitors in the conference, but Penn State literally has a 1 game season and their punishment for losing the 1 game is missing the Big 10 championship game (and a chance for 2 losses) so they will almost certainly slot into the 5 or 6 seed with a home playoff game and nice bracket setup.   There just isn't an upper middle or middle tier in the Big 10 this season.  It's a 4 team league and Ohio St. is the only one that has to play anyone else.  I hate Ohio State but if they were to lose to Indiana they damn sure better still be slotted ahead of Penn St.

I just can't see PSU getting that high of a seed.  Absent something crazy, I think those are going to losers of big 10 and SEC championship game.  Obviously 1 and 2 seeds are going to winners. 

They'll still probably get a 7 or 8 and host a game.  I'd laugh if they got a 9 or 10 seed Georgia.

Posted
Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

A road game doesn't drop 5 pts...homes are usually worth max 3. Not a good model.

Dude what the fuck are you talking about. Go back to the recruiting board or CR.

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Posted
Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

Rarely post in the latter. Vegas would have Texas as double digit favorites that's a fact brother.

Bro I'm giving you what the line would be and you're disagreeing. Texas in Bloomington next week would not lay 10. There is no way in fuck. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

I just can't see PSU getting that high of a seed.  Absent something crazy, I think those are going to losers of big 10 and SEC championship game.  Obviously 1 and 2 seeds are going to winners. 

This is certainly what should happen.  Will actually be a good test of how they treat championship games.   

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Posted
4 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Dude what the fuck are you talking about. Go back to the recruiting board or CR.

You are arguing with the same clown that thought our season was effectively over and our QB dog shit after beating Vandy on the road by 3, but just 1 good game against a bad team and we're beating Indiana by 17.  He is the quintessential over reactionary Texas fan that doesn't know shit about fuck. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Skipper said:

You are arguing with the same clown that thought our season was effectively over and our QB dog shit after beating Vandy on the road by 3, but just 1 good game against a bad team and we're beating Indiana by 17.  He is the quintessential over reactionary Texas fan that doesn't know shit about fuck. 

 

1 minute ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

You have to stop engaging with this guy. He’s borderline futureman 

I know I know... I just try and give people a chance. 

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Posted
3 hours ago, dcar00 said:

so are we getting to the point that if we come in with 1 loss and aggy has 2 losses that they have to win to be in but we don't?

No gty that a 2 loss Texas is in CFP playoffs especially if the 2nd loss is to aggy.  

Naysayers will point out that if Texas loses to aggy, we would have zero wins over the current Top 25 teams

Screenshot_20241110-085118_kindlephoto-3015789.png.fdfeb06f726384a9d531c2c73d2b1489.png

 

Michigan and blOU really sucking is hurting the Longhorns current strength of schedule.

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Posted
1 hour ago, ztejas said:

You're fucking high if you think Indiana is as good as Texas. We would get a full TD against them at a neutral site. 

You can't just use W/L to dictate who the best teams are. You have to also watch the games.

You taking Indiana over Alabama at a neutral site? Okay. I'm not. 

Indiana would get throatfucked by Bama, Texas, and Georgia. So would Pedo State. The Big 10 is a joke but even more so, Indiana is a joke and so is their schedule. 

Posted (edited)

You guys fret too much.  Just keep winning.  When there’s no one left to play and Fowler and Herbstreit have finished yelling, take your trophy and put it in the case.  Well done.

It’s time to euthanize the conference championship games and their promoters.  We didn’t miss them before 1992 and the segue from regular season to CFP post season games would make better sense.

As a Bama fan, unless we can somehow win the SECCG and get a bye, all I want to see is my team in one of the 5-8 slots hosting a first round game. ND vs Bama in Tuscaloosa would be pretty cool, considering we were dead meat three weeks ago.

Edited by Bama Llama
Spazoid typing
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Posted
46 minutes ago, Skipper said:

You are arguing with the same clown that thought our season was effectively over and our QB dog shit after beating Vandy on the road by 3, but just 1 good game against a bad team and we're beating Indiana by 17.  He is the quintessential over reactionary Texas fan that doesn't know shit about fuck. 

Show me where I said our season was over aside from something like if Quinn doesn’t play better it is. You won’t. He played a good half vs Vandy and was bad in second half. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Bama Llama said:

It’s time to euthanize the conference championship games, and their promoters.  We didn’t misd them before 1992 and the segue from regular season to CFP post season games would make better sense.

As a Bama fan, unless we can somehow win the SECCG and get a bue, all I want to see is my team in one of the 5-8 slots hosting a first round game. ND vs Bama in Tuscaloosa would be pretty cool.

Yeah, playing in conference championship games is not necessarily an advantage to winning the CFP National Championship.  

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Bama Llama said:

As a Bama fan, unless we can somehow win the SECCG and get a bue, all I want to see is my team in one of the 5-8 slots hosting a first round game. ND vs Bama in Tuscaloosa would be pretty cool.

They damn sure better slot Bama ahead of Notre Dame this week.  Hell, they should move Ole Miss ahead of them as well.

Posted
2 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Yeah, playing in conference championship games is not necessarily an advantage to winning the CFP National Championship.  

it's the playoff game for a bye, but the loser gets no bye week, unlike the 3rd place team that didn't make the CCG, gets a bye week AND hosts the wildcard with no travel

so for the b1g and sec it's a real faafo proposition HOWEVER it makes the league a fuckton they don't have to share with anyone else which trumps the downside for the ccg loser

for the mid2 and g5 it's only way to sort out their mess

what are the options to do away with it at 12 and 16?

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

A road game doesn't drop 5 pts...homes are usually worth max 3. Not a good model.

That’s exactly what he said. The fuck man. You should read as hard as you argue

Edited by B00M
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Posted
2 hours ago, Cairn Horn88 said:

Who?

The couch burning, sister fucking, toothless, people who live in a shitty state. 

2 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

I've watched every single IU game you dumb fucking idiot, but obviously you missed that point. Now get fucked.

Wow. You've actually watched IU football? Damn. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, The Dog said:

Name a team that’s trading on their preseason ranking more than Mizzou.

When anyone says our schedule is soft, point to mizzou. If South Carolina shows up, they’ll blow out mizzou just like the other 2 decent teams on their schedule did. Otherwise mizzou could ALSO end up 10-2 

Posted
33 minutes ago, scottsins said:

The CFP rankings do not have jack shit to do with preseason or even in-season coaches and AP polls.

CFP uses formulas and shit where pre season polls create inherent biases. Especially with regards to SOS type shit in formulas 

Posted
23 minutes ago, scottsins said:

The CFP rankings do not have jack shit to do with preseason or even in-season coaches and AP polls.

It’s true that the CFP is its own independent ranking and can place teams however it sees fit.

But the initial CFP poll last week was identical to the AP poll, except UGA and tOSU were swapped at 2 and 3. Poll inertia and some preseason bias is baked in. That’s just how it is in this sport.

Fortunately, now that the CFP poll is out there, it tends to be its own thing and work differently than the legacy polls. But I would argue the starting point is always influenced by those polls.

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Posted
51 minutes ago, cmontexas said:

Lol at 2 loss SEC 4th place Tennessee hosting that playoff game ahead of the juicy Notre Dame-Indiana 1 loss showdown

We know they are going to manipulate the ranking/seeding for the best matchups some and while ND@IU is juicy locally, nationally it doesn’t move the needle.

Ohio State at 5 vs the G5 champ is a lock if they win out but lose their CCG.

Then you get to the SEC 10-2 teams.

You have to split up UGA, Bama, TN because they all played each other already. I think you swap UGA and TN because Texas and UGA have already played and UGA vs Oregon and Texas versus either ND or TN would be great. Bama/Pedo is also a great matchup so that one stays.

Obviously this all changes based on the outcomes of the Indiana/Ohio St and UGA/TN games but “as is” I think this is close to what could be a great playoff.

Indiana/UGA and Boise/Ohio St would be the worst games and go to TNT while ND/TN and Bama/Pedo would headline on ESPN.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Yeah, playing in conference championship games is not necessarily an advantage to winning the CFP National Championship.  

 

10 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

it's the playoff game for a bye, but the loser gets no bye week, unlike the 3rd place team that didn't make the CCG, gets a bye week AND hosts the wildcard with no travel

so for the b1g and sec it's a real faafo proposition HOWEVER it makes the league a fuckton they don't have to share with anyone else which trumps the downside for the ccg loser

for the mid2 and g5 it's only way to sort out their mess

what are the options to do away with it at 12 and 16?

Maybe when they go to 16 CFP playoff teams, the 8 teams in Power4 that make their conference championship games are guaranteed a CFP playoff seed no lower than #8 and all receive 1st round home games???

This would guarantee at least 2 spots for both B12 and ACC in the CFP playoffs...🤔

 

Edited by LTtxfan
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Posted
50 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

If BYU loses to Arizona State and Boise St wins out there is a strong shot Boise gets the bye week over Big 12 champion

Why do you think the Rig 12 made sure BYU won? 

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Posted
58 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

If BYU loses to Arizona State and Boise St wins out there is a strong shot Boise gets the bye week over Big 12 champion

Is it not true that P4 champs get the byes no matter what?

Posted
2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Is it not true that P4 champs get the byes no matter what?

4 highest ranked conf champs get the byes. MWC champ being ranked higher than the Big 12 champ would give them a bye

But that’s apparently only happened a few times ever. Notably 2020 when PAC-12 champ Oregon was ranked low due to lack of games and 2009 with TCU/Boise 

Posted
Just now, Js1 said:

4 highest ranked conf champs get the byes. MWC champ being ranked higher than the Big 12 champ would give them a bye

But that’s apparently only happened a few times ever. Notably 2020 when PAC-12 champ Oregon was ranked low due to lack of games and 2009 with TCU/Boise 

That makes sense then, and I like that better.

Posted

Honestly, Big 12 is really fun to watch despite the officiating because it's unpredictable. There's commuter campuses, party schools, super religious schools, skyline chili, cornfield schools, couch burners, and former 40-year-olds that have given up on everything. It's as if Stephon from SNL made a CFB conference.

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Posted

Indiana having OSU on the schedule makes it even fucking dumber that they aren't #2. 

None if this even makes a shit anymore anyway. 12 team playoff has made polls kind of irrelevant tbh. 

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