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Posted
10 minutes ago, Bill Brasky said:

I call bullahit on this, I can't imagine anyone posting names of teenage victims already 

You don't understand these camp alumni.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:


What’s a bit odd is that the forecasts seemed to totally miss this risk. There was talk of rain, mostly w of 35, but not of any major flood risk. It’s not common for forecasts to miss so widely these days.

lot have changed recently with the resources of those who forecast the weather.

plus let's not forget the sudden brain drain. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, King George said:

Hey go for it. I did not post one piece of disinformation. 

you posted a tweet with a video that wasn't even from this event, among other crap.   go fuck yourself 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Homesickhorn said:


Looking back at the radar, this storm exploded and dropped an unprecedented amount of rain at an unprecedented rate at 2am. .

The biggest issue was that it sat in pretty much the exact same place for 10 - 12 hours.

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Wally Pryor said:

The biggest issue was that it sat in pretty much the exact same place for 10 - 12 hours.

 

Yeah, the bastard just parked there.  Reminds me of that one that did the same over CenTex in 2015 and refilled Travis in a week.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, FORTY NINE TO ZERO said:

lot have changed recently with the resources of those who forecast the weather.

plus let's not forget the sudden brain drain. 

I know for a fact at least one south central Texas meteorologist was hinting at high flood risk in the Hill Country as early as yesterday morning ~ 9:30 AM.  But, risk doesn't necessarily demand evacuation.

Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


What’s a bit odd is that the forecasts seemed to totally miss this risk. There was talk of rain, mostly w of 35, but not of any major flood risk. It’s not common for forecasts to miss so widely these days.

Tomasco was talking about this risk couple of days ago. Some of the models were predicting this, but they were outliers, as were those that predicted totals not exceeding an inch. Forecasts are about what's probable. It's a good reminder that a 5-10% chance is still a chance.
Also our once in a decade reminder that the Hill Country is very hard land and one of the most flash flood prone places on the planet. 

Anyway, I can't even imagine the pain those parents and families are going through. Horrible

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted
Just now, Cajun said:

Yeah, the bastard just parked there.  Reminds me of that one that did the same over CenTex in 2015 and refilled Travis in a week.

Someone posted a radar image a couple of hours ago but it could have been the same image we saw at 1AM.

Perfect storm, so to speak. System got cut off and, yeah, just parked itself.  That often yields the catastrophic shit. 

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Posted

I know it’s all hands on deck lots of help incoming. in addition to National Guard and other agencies. 
 

so much beauty gone in an instant. Hard to fathom. Hard to fathom like that freak storm that hit Lake Tahoe two weeks back. And also claimed lives. 
Power of nature, beauty of nature, mercilessness of nature…all of us at her whim. 
 

Already tragic from those poor souls at the trailer park. 
the fucking lakes better fill the fuck up then. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Cajun said:

Yeah, the bastard just parked there.  Reminds me of that one that did the same over CenTex in 2015 and refilled Travis in a week.

It pales in comparison, but Hermine dumped over a foot of rain on Austin in one night back in 2010.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


What’s a bit odd is that the forecasts seemed to totally miss this risk. There was talk of rain, mostly w of 35, but not of any major flood risk. It’s not common for forecasts to miss so widely these days.

they posted a flood watch for Kerr County and points westward around 3pm yesterday 

Posted
8 minutes ago, royiv said:

Two hours ago you were sure it was Mystic and now you’re sure it’s La Junta. Quit posting unsubstantiated information, Rex.

 

6 minutes ago, Bill Brasky said:

you posted a tweet with a video that wasn't even from this event, among other crap.   go fuck yourself 

2 hours ago I posted a tweet that was sent to me by many people and many people on this thread had seen it. The tweet said it was from Mystic. I did not. It was however from this event, as it was at La Junta and certainly relevant to this thread. I haven’t posted one wrong thing to my knowledge, particularly knowingly. If I have I apologize, but things are moving fast. I’m very concerned about friends and their kids down there.

I don’t know why royiv is calling me Rex and negging every one of my posts for sport. 

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Posted

The guy on the San Antonio station seems to be speaking pretty confidently about the models and another big round overnight in the same area of the Hill Country.  By that time the damage will have been done, the toll of what is TBD. It hasn't sounded good but hoping for the best. 

Supposed to be another presser at 3 so hopefully some updates. 

Nightmare. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Bill Brasky said:

they posted a flood watch for Kerr County and points westward around 3pm yesterday 

methinks the officials didn't want to scare off the tourists

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

I know it’s all hands on deck lots of help incoming. in addition to National Guard and other agencies. 
 

so much beauty gone in an instant. Hard to fathom. Hard to fathom like that freak storm that hit Lake Tahoe two weeks back. And also claimed lives. 
Power of nature, beauty of nature, mercilessness of nature…all of us at her whim. 
 

Already tragic from those poor souls at the trailer park. 
the fucking lakes better fill the fuck up then. 

 

they need to be in contact with county judges and county emergency directors, not members of congress 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Cajun said:

You don't understand these camp alumni.

fair point.  my summer camp experience was getting to work for the local farmers so I got to deal with aggies which may or may not be worse 

Posted
4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It pales in comparison, but Hermine dumped over a foot of rain on Austin in one night back in 2010.

Marble Falls rain bomb in 2007 - 19 inches in six to eight hours. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

The guy on the San Antonio station seems to be speaking pretty confidently about the models and another big round overnight in the same area of the Hill Country.  By that time the damage will have been done, the toll of what is TBD. It hasn't sounded good but hoping for the best. 

Supposed to be another presser at 3 so hopefully some updates. 

Nightmare. 

 

just saw that 

they want to extend flood warnings into tomorrow am 

Posted
Just now, tx 3 putt said:

 

they need to be in contact with county judges and county emergency directors, not members of congress 

No doubt. Not disagreeing. But they do need all the help they can get, even with Avery’s prediction no one was expecting a hurricane size tropical storm to just sit on central Texas like a shit cloud. As far as I can tell. Or at least a situation now surpassing the shit in 1987.


it’s fucking pouring where I am. 
 

as far as the mystic alumni group the person in that I know from my Amarillo days. Her father practiced pathology with my father. Her grandmother was killed and they made the movie Bernie about it with Jack Black. Weird ass sad story. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, BachelorTrek said:

I remember that. It was in the middle of a workweek, too.

Cost me $20K in new hardwood floors.  Kinda seems trivial compared to what happened 10 years ago and now today.

Posted
1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

This is actually the best time and place to remind people that their decisions have consequences. We are way, way past decorum mattering.

Seth Meyers Lol GIF by Late Night with Seth Meyers

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Posted
1 minute ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Eh, as much as i would like to post “why the fuck do people live on/near rivers” and “who did this county vote for?”, its maybe too son?

Any time is too soon.

Posted

govs office ...

The state of Texas is surging all available resources to respond to the devastating flooding around the Kerr county area.

That includes water rescue teams, sheltering centers, the National Guard, the Texas Department of Public Safety.

The immediate priority is saving lives.

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Posted
My cousin just texted me to say that her sorority sister’s daughter is missing from Camp Mystic. She is 8 years old. Fuck fuck fuck. 

Same from a friend of mine who’s married to a Texas Theta. Not their child, but one of her sorority sisters. This is rough.
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Posted

In addition to people I worry about all the horses. At Waldemar you have like 50-75 horses and I’m guessing the other camps have quite a few as well. 
 

this is like nightmare scenario tropical shit hurricane size storm that won’t move. And it’s not like it appears to get any better in some places the next day or so. 

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Posted
16 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It pales in comparison, but Hermine dumped over a foot of rain on Austin in one night back in 2010.

I had forgotten about that one.

 

Posted (edited)

The low is gradually making its way eastward and the outer edge  is out of the Kerrville area, finally.  Moving over us but it looks like a lot of the moisture has been tapped out so the rain isn't too heavy. Need to keep that trend. Can't believe I'm saying that.

Edited by Wally Pryor
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Posted
Just now, Nicole44 said:

In addition to people I worry about all the horses. At Waldemar you have like 50-75 horses and I’m guessing the other camps have quite a few as well. 
 

this is like nightmare scenario tropical shit hurricane size storm that won’t move. And it’s not like it appears to get any better in some places the next day or so. 

Yeah, I had the same thought about all the horses. Didn’t post it because human life is more important, but I worry a bunch won’t survive.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Homesickhorn said:


Same from a friend of mine who’s married to a Texas Theta. Not their child, but one of her sorority sisters. This is rough.

Damnit.
So that’s two kids for certain as my cousin like me is a Kappa Delta so damnit. At least two still don’t know the fate of their babies.

Damn. When I was a counselor at Waldemar I was 19 and we had the kids for 5 weeks basically. The whole month. My cabin was all 8 year olds and one 7 year old who came with a broken arm. I cannot fathom waking up in the middle of the night to this. 7 girls per cabin and one counselor. Counselors are mostly but not all around the same age I was then. 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Bill Brasky said:

they posted a flood watch for Kerr County and points westward around 3pm yesterday 

Which with systems like, can mean death and destruction.  It might only flood one small area, or not.  The rainfall totals in these storms are very unpredictable with how they tend to stall and back feed.  The risk was there. No one expected this but we should anticipate the chance for this.

Posted
1 hour ago, Planet Houston said:

We are hearing the same. I know many of the couples with girls in that notice, and I’m currently with a couple that has a daughter at Mystic and son at La Junta (thankfully both accounted for). We heard that news about 30-45 mins ago, just hoping that it’s true. 

 

1 hour ago, Homesickhorn said:


Waldemar, Loma Linda (Mo Ranch), and Stewart all sit on the north fork (I think)of the Guadalupe.
Mystic, Heart of the Hills, Arrowhead, and La Junta all sit on the south fork. I have no idea if it makes a difference, but I’m pretty sure they collide right at Hunt. Hence, La Junta getting absolutely pummeled.

1st term ended last weekend at HoH. I’m so fucking thankful I was able to pick up my daughters before this.

Id be a fucking wreck right now.

Wife’s mom text is blowing the F up. 
 

This is crazy nightmare fuel.

Any more news? Last I heard Mystic had girls unaccounted for.

I keep doom scrolling / seeing shit like this:

 

and

 

IMG_4433.jpeg

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Posted
1 minute ago, Wally Pryor said:

The low is gradually making its way eastward and the outer edge  is out of the Kerrville area, finally.  Moving over us but it looks like a lot of the moisture has been tapped out so the rain isn't too heavy. Need to keep that trend. Can't believe I'm saying that.

KXAN's "future radar" seems to be predicting a near-total weakening by rush hour, and then a second build around sunset (for whatever that's worth).

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

KXAN's "future radar" seems to be predicting a near-total weakening by rush hour, and then a second build around sunset (for whatever that's worth).

 

sa news is saying it's going to reform tonight, 11pm to 3am

Edited by tx 3 putt
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Posted
4 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Damnit.
So that’s two kids for certain as my cousin like me is a Kappa Delta so damnit. At least two still don’t know the fate of their babies.

Damn. When I was a counselor at Waldemar I was 19 and we had the kids for 5 weeks basically. The whole month. My cabin was all 8 year olds and one 7 year old who came with a broken arm. I cannot fathom waking up in the middle of the night to this. 7 girls per cabin and one counselor. Counselors are mostly but not all around the same age I was then. 

Mystic Guadalupe is like 18 girls per cabin - at least my daughter’s cabin this summer.  There really isn’t high ground on that campsite to speak of.  We toured Stewart for my son last week and the river sits far below the campsite there.  We also looked at La Junta same day and I see how that could get overrun.  Guess I know where we are sending him next summer.  

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Posted
15 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Cost me $20K in new hardwood floors.  Kinda seems trivial compared to what happened 10 years ago and now today.

Yo!; that flooring is either now dated or in need of attention. Hit me up!

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

 

1st term ended last weekend at HoH. I’m so fucking thankful I was able to pick up my daughters before this.

Id be a fucking wreck right now.

Wife’s mom text is blowing the F up. 
 

This is crazy nightmare fuel.

Any more news? Last I heard Mystic had girls unaccounted for.

I keep doom scrolling / seeing shit like this:

 

and

 

IMG_4433.jpeg

What a brave badass counselor. Glad the littles did as they were told. I taught swimming to the 8 year olds in the Guadeloupe and I’m impressed with those campers in that situation. Scariest thing ever to happen was a water moccasin swimming under the pier right at them and I told them (bc they did not see the snake coming at them) to race each other to the other pier. Snake went under the pier under me and down an embankment thing. Kids never knew. 
 

It is hard to fathom all this shit. Sorry for rambling. This hits really close to home. I should take a break and only post if I hear anything news worthy. 

Posted

Wife update:

Still 4 girls unaccounted for from camp mystic.

The fact they are all from the youngest cabin turns my fucking guts in knots.

I can’t imagine what these girls’ parents are going through.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

What a brave badass counselor. Glad the littles did as they were told. I taught swimming to the 8 year olds in the Guadeloupe and I’m impressed with those campers in that situation. Scariest thing ever to happen was a water moccasin swimming under the pier right at them and I told them (bc they did not see the snake coming at them) to race each other to the other pier. Snake went under the pier under me and down an embankment thing. Kids never knew. 
 

It is hard to fathom all this shit. Sorry for rambling. This hits really close to home. I should take a break and only post if I hear anything news worthy. 

 

thats extremely quick thinking and reacting !

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