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2018 Houston Astros Season Thread

Planet Houston

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TexArcher
TexArcher

Bregs is going Crawford Boxes right here.

ERhine
ERhine

Prior to the footage being edited by Bender:

wesleywest
wesleywest

Two Diamond Club tickets available for the Sunday night game.  Free.  Need to pick them up from me in 77027. Rules: Poster must be a big contributor to this thread/last years shag thread.  No gue

runthebone

runthebone 7874

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, runthebone said:

 

Yeah, wouldn't you?  They are all nasty. 

At some point, beating teams by 10 runs doesn't really matter.  Bullpen success in beatdowns doesn't matter. 

The Astros are 7-13 in one run games.  

 

5 hours ago, formermav43 said:

One run games? Really? Ok then.

 

Yeah, n=1, offense was shit, etc.

But still.

 

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8017

Posted
Posted

I’m not as upset with Giles as I am with the position players as a group. Giles just isn’t all that good. But our lineup has to score runs. Call in a shrink or whatever, but somebody take charge and get the offense going. We’re not facing Steve Carlton. 

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Focht Up

Focht Up 631

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9 hours ago, ScottishHorn said:

He gets paid too much.  He needs to be traded.   He hates Houston anyway.  He got booed tonight bad

At a minimum he should get switched to middle relief, nothing beyond the sixth inning.  I think any of rondon, devo, or McHugh would be adequate closers.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9288

Posted
Posted
At a minimum he should get switched to middle relief, nothing beyond the sixth inning.  I think any of rondon, devo, or McHugh would be adequate closers.

I could argue Hinch has already moved him down his 3rd best reliever
Last night Devo gets the 6th in his lefty specialist role. Hinch has already shown he’ll pitch him no matter the point in the game if the matchups show lefties coming up
Rondon gets the 7th against the 2/3/4 part of the order. Has a very “Giles-like” inning but Hinch sticks with him and he gets bailed out on a swing on a slider way out of the zone.
Meanwhile your offense grounds in to double plays with one out in back to back innings and your left with Giles needing to coming in in 0-0 game
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ckhorn

ckhorn 208

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Posted

It seems our issues wont be closing out post season games, but regular season games if we don't make a trade. I think we will. I like Rondon in the 7th or 8th, but not the 9th for some reason. We need some of our arms in the minors to start getting healthy. Still can't figure out whats going on with Martes and Bukauskas.

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WBT

WBT 20131

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Cosimo de' Medici said:

Giles salary $4.6M

Bregman salary $599K

You're telling me salaries are almost entirely service time related for the first 6 years?  Get Rosenthal on the horn, he's got to get the word out

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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12 hours ago, thetruth said:

That's all we got? Two goddamn hits?

Shitload of guys on base though. 3 double plays. 2 with the bases loaded. Sometimes that happens. Nobody goes undefeated. 

Giles needs to go though. Not sure why Hinch keeps trotting him out there. He has had way more than enough chances. I cant recall another relief pitcher or below average closer ever getting this many chances.  It's not like its Rivera going through a rough patch or even Lidge. Giles has never had a stretch of elite play that earned him this much rope. Let him go get his head straight on a shitty team. 

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Posted
4 hours ago, Cosimo de' Medici said:

Giles salary $4.6M

Bregman salary $599K

Giles has already provided $4.6M worth of production this season.  Here's the thing about Giles' ERA this season - his BABIP against is 44 points higher than his career average and his LOB% is 14% less than his career average.  In a 25 IP sample those stats are meaningless (along with ER/IP).  

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runthebone

runthebone 7874

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Posted (edited)

There is a disconnect where some fans think that because the Astros are all in on analytics that we fans have to be.  We don't.  I can use my fucking eyes and tell that the back end of this bullpen is a problem and isn't good enough right now.  

Edited by runthebone
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UTEX_ME

UTEX_ME 4724

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2 minutes ago, runthebone said:

There is a disconnect where some fans think that because the Astros are all in on analytics that we fans have to be.  We don't.  I can use my fucking eyes and tell that the back end of this bullpen is a problem and isn't good enough right now.  

Yep. It took two starters to close out both game 7s last year. 

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Posted (edited)

Isn't it odd to you that the things Giles has the most control over, and where random fluctuation and the skills of his teammates plays the smallest role, he's been just fine this season?  Very mysterious.  

Edited by Fozzz
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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10378

Posted
Posted

I can’t even come to this thread in-game anymore. Just a bunch of pissing and moaning with little-to-no real baseball talk. So many posters here don’t understand that baseball is not a game of perfect. If we don’t get a hit in every RBI situation, make the perfect pitch, win every game then we suck. In reality, we are one of, if not the best, teams in baseball. Expectations are totally unrealistic. I choose enjoy this once in a lifetime team and not always be miserable.

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runthebone

runthebone 7874

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No one is saying "we" suck or that we don't enjoy this team.  Ken Giles/closer is the weakest part of a team that is good enough to win another championship.  He has 11 saves and only one (I think) in a one-run game because Hinch is trying to protect him and build his confidence with meaningless saves.  After what happened in the playoffs, he hasn't recovered.  Some people are Maverick and some people are Cougar. 

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Rimbo

Rimbo 25212

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I can’t even come to this thread in-game anymore. Just a bunch of pissing and moaning with little-to-no real baseball talk. So many posters here don’t understand that baseball is not a game of perfect. If we don’t get a hit in every RBI situation, make the perfect pitch, win every game then we suck. In reality, we are one of, if not the best, teams in baseball. Expectations are totally unrealistic. I choose enjoy this once in a lifetime team and not always be miserable.

thank you

this ain't football

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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3747

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Interesting article about JV and Cole's improvement with the Astros:

Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole's Triple Crown numbers paint in broad strokes. Their ERAs and strikeout totals this season reflect how they've fully unlocked their ace-level stuff in an Astros organization that has assembled a pitching staff for the ages.

But when you look deeper, at the specific type of poor contact they're getting from hitters, you get a window to a fundamental change both Verlander and Cole made when they came to Houston: prioritizing four-seam fastballs and deemphasizing two-seam fastballs.

"I stopped throwing my two-seamer," Verlander said. "I know I'm extremely efficient at throwing a four-seamer. I stay behind it probably better than anybody else, or just about. One of the things that was explained to me when I got here was, my two-seamer is basically just an ineffective four-seamer. So why would I throw it? I'm basically just doing guys favors."

The change works for both Verlander and Cole because their fastballs profile similarly. They have, as Verlander terms it, "hop."

"Just because you throw hard doesn't mean you have our profile," Verlander said. "[Cole] is somebody who has good four-seam hop, and that plays well. You can't lump everybody in and say, 'Oh, OK, you throw hard, you should throw fastballs at the top of the zone.' It doesn't work like that. But [the Astros] identified him very similarly to what they did with me -- like, 'You're basically doing guys favors trying to throw them two-seamers at the bottom of the zone.'"

How do they know it's working? Not just by the swings-and-misses (Verlander has a Major League-best 134 on four-seam fastballs, and Cole ranks 10th with 95), but by the balls in play. Verlander and Cole are generating a ton of weak fly balls and popups.

Statcast™ classifies all batted balls, based on exit velocity and launch angle, into either productive or unproductive categories of contact. As Astros, Verlander and Cole have had a huge jump in the number of poorly-hit balls they've induced in the "Under" category -- air balls that don't do damage.

Verlander and Cole's rate of "Under" contact induced in 2017 vs. '18

Verlander
2017 -- Tigers: 29.6 percent
2017 -- Astros (including postseason): 39.6 percent
2018: 44.8 percent (highest among starting pitchers)

Cole
2017: 22.6 percent
2018: 29.9 percent

On batted balls classified as "Under," opposing hitters have a combined .034 batting average against Cole and Verlander this year: 3-for-63 against Cole, 3-for-111 against Verlander. And it's mainly their four-seamers that are getting those results.

"I'm doing something to get that kind of contact -- I'm throwing more four-seamers, attacking the top half of the zone better," Cole said. "It wasn't, like, attacking that specific outcome. It's just proof in the pudding.

"Every player's profile is different. [The Astros] are just trying to highlight what you do well. Maybe they chase four-seamers, I don't know. But as far as I'm concerned, they just highlighted what my strengths were. And that's how I've crafted my approach."

Highest rate of "Under" contact on 4-seamers by starting pitchers in 2018
Minimum 50 batted balls vs. 4-seamer (95 starters)
1. Justin Verlander: 50.9 percent
2. Matthew Boyd: 47.7 percent
3. Gio Gonzalez: 47.1 percent
4. Jhoulys Chacin: 45.1 percent
5. Gerrit Cole: 44.8 percent

 

 

Having Verlander already in Houston when he got there helped Cole tremendously, giving him someone with whom he could break down the craft of pitching, who had already bought into the Astros' suggestions and experienced brilliant success.

"I specifically remember talking to him about what we were trying to get out of the four-seam," Cole said. "Just understanding the type of action that I wanted. That was new."

Verlander has long been the king of the high fastball; Cole calls it "one of the best four-seamers of all time." Statcast™ has helped show one of the reasons for the electricity of that pitch: Elite spin rate. High-spin fastballs tend to get more swings-and-misses, especially when elevated. The spin creates the "rising fastball" effect, as the ball defies gravity slightly longer.

Highest average 4-seam fastball spin rate by starting pitchers in 2018
1. Garrett Richards: 2,606 rpm
2. Justin Verlander: 2,604 rpm
3. Yu Darvish: 2,542 rpm
4. Tyson Ross: 2,519 rpm
5. Mike Minor: 2,511 rpm
Average 4-seam spin rate for starting pitchers: 2,246 rpm

In addition to whiffs, high-spin four-seamers also produce more balls in the air, as hitters swing under the ball. Sometimes, that means high-spin fastball pitchers can be hurt by the home run. But Verlander's four-seamer is so good that, for him, air contact often just means popups.

Popups, essentially, act as strikeouts. They're automatic outs, and runners can't go anywhere. Verlander has gotten even more of them since he stopped throwing two-seamers with Houston. The same has gone for Cole as he's adopted the four-seam-first approach. With elevated four-seamers, they get more popups with less damage.

"My two-seamer was a popup pitch as well," Verlander said. "It just was less effective, more likely to get barreled."

Verlander has gotten 37 popups this year, most of any pitcher, and 27 have been generated by his four-seamer, the most of any four-seam thrower. Cole has gotten 23 popups of his own, 15 on four-seamers. Their popup rates have increased significantly with Houston.

Verlander and Cole's popup rate in 2017 vs. '18

Verlander
2017 -- Tigers: 9.7 percent
2017 -- Astros (including postseason): 14.5 percent
2018: 14.8 percent

Cole
2017: 7.6 percent
2018: 10.9 percent

"Weak popups are more effective than groundouts. Weak popups turn into outs more often than anything else," Verlander said. "I've always been a fly-ball guy. I don't get a lot of ground balls. I never have. So why not just embrace it?"

 

 

Cole's four-seamer doesn't have the same spin rate as Verlander's (although he has increased his average four-seam spin from 2,156 rpm with the Pirates in 2017 to 2,338 rpm with the Astros in '18). That's likely a factor in why Verlander's popup numbers are more extreme. Still, when Cole joined the team, Verlander saw the same life in Cole's fastball that he had in his. He helped Cole see that for himself, and act on it.

"He found out that he had good four-seam hop, and he didn't really know how to use it," Verlander said. "[In Spring Training] we were playing catch, and I was pointing out the ones that were good and the ones that were bad. And they were basically the opposite of what he thought."

Cole was targeting his throws where his normal two-seam action would make the ball run back to the center of Verlander's body. But not all his throws were running. And the ones that didn't run -- that hit Verlander in the right shoulder and not the chest -- were the ones Verlander was highlighting.

"To me, it seems like I'm yanking the ball," Cole said. "But to him, he's like, 'You're actually staying behind the ball and getting better rotation. It's actually doing what you want it to do. It's not fading, it's jumping.' I took that trajectory and moved it to my spots. Trying to chase that type of action, that was a big day for me."

Once he knew what he was looking for, Cole could implement the changes in his pitch repertoire, and get the repetitions needed to breed improvement.

"When you're spinning a two-seam, getting on the side of the ball to get more run or sink can be good, but it can really be detrimental to your four-seam," Cole said. "Especially when you're throwing both back and forth as much as I was -- and probably, even in my mind, using the two-seamer as the No. 1 fastball. Cleaning up that lack of the definition between the two, and then leaning on the four-seam, having it become my primary fastball over my two-seam, it's just benefited me as a whole."

Now, Cole's contact profile, like Verlander's, is undergoing the corresponding shift to the air. Cole's ground-ball rate has dropped more than 10 percent from 2017 to '18, down to 36.5 percent -- near Verlander's 30.8 percent, among the lowest for starting pitchers. That contrasts the Astros' other starters -- Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr. and Charlie Morton -- three of the league's heaviest ground-ball generators. But Verlander and Cole have the fastballs to make their approach extremely effective. The proof's in the pudding.

"I don't think you can generate hop," Verlander said. "When you have it, you can work on it. If you've got it naturally, you can learn how to use it."

David Adler is a reporter for MLB.com based in New York. Follow him on Twitter at @_dadler.

Edited by Seasick Sailor
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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Posted

That’s an excellent article. There was a good one too a while back on FG’s community research page pointing out the relationship between spin rate and release extension (“staying behind the ball”), and those interviews seem to confirm that Cole has adjusted his mechanics to achieve the increased spin.

What really pissed me off about the allegations from Kyle Boddy and that shithead Trevor Bauer was the implication that increased spin could only be achieved through the use of substances when they simply weren’t smart enough to find the link between mechanics and spin, as the Astros have apparently found. 

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formermav43

formermav43 4599

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, runthebone said:

There is a disconnect where some fans think that because the Astros are all in on analytics that we fans have to be.  We don't.  I can use my fucking eyes and tell that the back end of this bullpen is a problem and isn't good enough right now.  

I think the disconnect is that you think your eye test is relevant to anyone but you. It’s not. 

That goes for anyone constantly bitching about the bullpen. The data just doesn’t support your fragile psyches.

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WBT

WBT 20131

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, runthebone said:

No one is saying "we" suck or that we don't enjoy this team.  Ken Giles/closer is the weakest part of a team that is good enough to win another championship.  He has 11 saves and only one (I think) in a one-run game because Hinch is trying to protect him and build his confidence with meaningless saves.  After what happened in the playoffs, he hasn't recovered.  Some people are Maverick and some people are Cougar. 

Insider's tip: Giles is no longer the closer

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8349

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

I can’t even come to this thread in-game anymore. Just a bunch of pissing and moaning with little-to-no real baseball talk. So many posters here don’t understand that baseball is not a game of perfect. If we don’t get a hit in every RBI situation, make the perfect pitch, win every game then we suck. In reality, we are one of, if not the best, teams in baseball. Expectations are totally unrealistic. I choose enjoy this once in a lifetime team and not always be miserable.

ZOMG how do we not have nine runs of this rag arm yet?????? Time to see what we can get, if anything for Correa, Tuve, Springer, McCullers, and Verlander. Rip it down to the studs. It's 2010 all over again!!!!

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