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2018 Houston Astros Season Thread


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2 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Nothing worse than a loss followed up with an off day.

these fuckers need to sit in that stench for a while. outside of today, pitching has been really good and we probably should have 2 losses at the most. i don't know if guys are trying too much, or not making adjustments at the plate. i didnt watch the game on tv, just radio, but we seem to be getting killed on stuff away, springer and bregman especially with the soft stuff - how many times have you seen them flail at pitches this year? i know, right?

good hitters make adjustments and right now, we're not doing that. hell, we just may be showing up hoping the pitchers throw a shutout every game (thanks a lot Cole). it will be nice to get Yuli back on friday and start to set our actual lineup at the plate friday

show me a win?

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I'll be interested in hearing why Hinch handled that pitching meltdown the way he did. By the time he acted, the team was staring at Everest instead of a speed bump. 

 

I assume he’d say he wanted to see LMJ work through it and willing to sacrifice a game in hopes LMJ could gain some confidence and stretch out for more than 4 innings as a starter

Unfortunately neither worked out

 

Clearly he wasn’t going to get deep in to the game today after the rough start to the 4th, but it’s still a bit mind blowing he’s pitched in to the 7th one time since May 7 of last year (yes, he missed all of August)

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1 minute ago, UTexasFight said:


I assume he’d say he wanted to see LMJ work through it and willing to sacrifice a game in hopes LMJ could gain some confidence and stretch out for more than 4 innings as a starter
Unfortunately neither worked out

If the HP umpire had a rational strike zone in the first inning, we might have seen a very different game from LMJ. But I suppose you have to be able to work through that kind of problem. He didn't.

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22 minutes ago, wesleywest said:

Two Diamond Club tickets available for the Sunday night game.  Free.  Need to pick them up from me in 77027.

Rules: Poster must be a big contributor to this thread/last years shag thread.  No guests, no lurkers.

First to reply gets them.  

That's a solid move. +rep

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19 hours ago, Gut Wagon said:

If the HP umpire had a rational strike zone in the first inning, we might have seen a very different game from LMJ. But I suppose you have to be able to work through that kind of problem. He didn't.

I will agree the ump was pegging him with the strike zone.

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13 hours ago, TexArcher said:

All will be right with the world after we sweep Arlington by a combined score of 23-4.

No way they muster up enough offense to score 4 in the series. Of course, most days lately I'd say we can't score 23, either. But I do like our chances of unwedging our collective heads well enough to take the series. 

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1 hour ago, wesleywest said:

Two Diamond Club tickets available for the Sunday night game.  Free.  Need to pick them up from me in 77027.

Rules: Poster must be a big contributor to this thread/last years shag thread.  No guests, no lurkers.

First to reply gets them.  

The Rockets also play Sunday night--first playoff game. 

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12 minutes ago, Mez2 said:

What was it like to receive a World Series trophy, visit the White House, unveil a world championship banner and receive your World Series ring? What was your favorite part?

Everything that happens after winning a championship is amazing and something I wish everyone could experience … especially so many people in baseball who have never had the opportunity. My favorite part of all the events was the parade in Houston, because we shared it with our fans who waited 56 years for the first baseball championship in Texas.

Let’s go back to the beginning with Houston. You presented a 21-page plan to owner Jim Crane, who hired you after that interview. Give us some of the headlines of that presentation. Would you change anything now?

I’ve been asked many times by many people to see this so-called plan … and I believe I have the only copy somewhere in my files. At this point, it’s been built up to the point where it can only disappoint. The truth is any plan captures a point in time, and this one had my best thoughts from the outside in looking at the Astros as of November 2011. It appropriately served as a tool to have a series of deep conversations with Jim Crane and George Postolos about how to guide the Astros from 106 losses in 2011 to an eventual world championship and hopefully more than one. Much of what was in there focused on building the capabilities in amateur scouting, pro scouting, player development, sports medicine, economics and analytics that would give the Astros an advantage over other clubs over time. Much has changed since then, but many of the principles remain a focus for our baseball operations.

Take us through how you built the Astros, stage by stage?

One thing I want to clear up right away is that, at every stage of our process, we wanted to win as many games as possible while staying true to our primary objective – to build an organization that could compete for multiple championships as soon as possible. The idea that we would set an objective to pick high in the draft is just not true. I watched every game, most in person, during 2012 and 2013, and every loss pained me and those around me. I celebrated every win. We all did. 

The first stage (2012-13) was really focused on evaluating the existing talent in the organization both on and off the field and making necessary adjustments. Clearly, we had player talent in the organization despite the poor results and system rankings. Since I had been a scouting director for the prior nine seasons, I knew a lot about George Springer, Vince Velasquez, Mike Foltynewicz, Brett Wallace, Jarred Cosart, Dallas Keuchel, Jason Castro, J.D. Martinez, etc. I scouted all these players first hand. I had seen Altuve in rookie ball and followed his ascent to the big leagues. There were plenty of players I didn’t know much about … like Jonathan Villar, Jonathan Singleton, Paul Clemens, Jimmy Paredes, Domingo Santana, etc., and I needed to learn about them quickly.

Also, we had a ton of scouting, coaching and front-office talent in the organization, and I needed to give everyone a chance to prove themselves. New leaders will often replace key people too quickly, and I didn’t want to do that … I knew there was institutional knowledge and exceptional people here that I just didn’t know well. We still have several scouts and coaches and front-office people that were here prior to 2012, and they have been essential to our recent success.

The trades that were made the first and second year were all done with a purpose … we moved players that we believed were not likely to be around for the resurgence and who had more value to another team than to us in the short term. We moved Carlos Lee, Chris Johnson, J.A. Happ, Bud Norris, Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers and others. Good players in the middle or late stages of their careers who could help other teams with immediate needs. In exchange, we received younger players who our scouts believed could be a part of our resurgence or help us win games in the following years … and from those trades we received Chris Devenski, Brad Peacock, Derek Fisher (as a comp pick) and Max Stassi, who are on our current big-league roster, as well as Joe Musgrove, Matt Dominguez, Chris Carter, Josh Hader, L.J. Hoes and others that helped us win games during the down years or add to our prospect depth.

The next stage was the transition stage (2014-15), where we started to feel much better, that our plan was working, and we could possibly accelerate the time frame. We signed free agents including Gregerson, Neshek and Rasmus. We picked up players on waivers like Will Harris, Tony Sipp and Collin McHugh that our scouts had identified, and all were good players. Top prospects had started arriving in Houston (Springer, Singleton, Cosart). Altuve kept getting better. Keuchel began to dominate. Plus, we knew we had more good players coming.

The fun part of that stage was acquiring players that we believed made our big-league team better immediately, but it made me nervous to dip into our prospect depth to do so. We traded for Hank Conger and Evan Gattis during the 2014 offseason, and then traded for Carlos Gómez, Mike Fiers, Scott Kazmir and Oliver Pérez during the 2015 season to help get us to the playoffs.

After our playoff run in 2015, we felt good about the next period where we expected to be competitive every year. That offseason, we made a big trade for Ken Giles to bolster our pen. 2016 was a disappointment after we got off to a terrible start and then clawed our way back into contention, only to see our two top starters go down late in the second half and fall a few games out of a playoff spot. After that, we aggressively pursued our top targets in the trade and free-agent market and landed Brian McCann, Josh Reddick, Charlie Morton and Carlos Beltrán to surround our core that we knew was ready to take the next step.

What were your two best moves?

I will let others be the judge of that, but candidates would include:

— The summer ‘14 trade with the Marlins that brought us Jake Marisnik, Francis Martes, Colin Moran and a comp pick that turned out to be Daz Cameron.

— The offseason trade after 2012 with Oakland that brought us Peacock, Stassi and Carter.

— The trade on August 31st of last year that brought us Justin Verlander.

— Signing Altuve to an extension during his sophomore year.

— Trading for Gerrit Cole a few months ago.

— Picking up Will Harris off of waivers.

— Picking up McHugh off of waivers.

— Drafting Carlos Correa.

— Getting Marwin González in the Rule 5 hours after I was named GM.

— The summer '13 trade with Baltimore that brought us Hader and the comp pick, which turned into Fisher.

Two worst moves?

Well, moves that have been appropriately criticized include releasing J.D. Martinez, trading Hader, Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana and Adrian Howser to Milwaukee, two of the three selections we made with our 1-1 picks, trading Villar to the Brewers … among others!

Which particular analytics did you implement immediately after getting the job?

In December of 2011 when I took over, the Astros didn’t have analytics capabilities. The first task was simply to catch up to most of the teams that were doing something. Fortunately for me, there were a number of third-party organizations that used analytics to evaluate players. So, the first few months, I relied heavily on those in combination with our internal scouting reports to make decisions.

What are two or three new analytics that you have introduced over the past few seasons?

We are doing what all other teams are doing as well now, and that is trying to make sense of all the new information being generated every day at ballparks across the country and world. Our knowledge continues to grow quickly as the information grows, and we closely guard any insights that we believe will lead to a competitive advantage.

What are some of your favorite new wave statistics in evaluating pitchers? Position players? Which stats are so outdated that you won’t even look at them?

I know it sounds bizarre, but we don’t look at most stats that the media and fans use because we have our own ways of measuring success and, more importantly, predicting what may or could happen in the future. Many of the new-age publicly available metrics are really good and way better than the traditional metrics. There are a ton of really smart people writing about and analyzing baseball. I will say that the idea of runs above replacement and wins above replacement is a concept that we do use and has great value.

You reduced the size of your scouting department. Was that because technology and analytics are replacing them, or filling the role they were in?

Player evaluation at all levels — amateur, international, pro — has been and will continue to be a core part of our success. Last summer, we changed the composition of our staff and the result was fewer people in the field with larger areas but more scouts based in Houston. Overall, our headcount is expected to remain roughly the same. We very much believe in having experienced, trained evaluators providing their expert opinion about what he or she sees in a player. This value will only increase with information and technology, not decrease.

How do you weight scouting reports, analytics, information, make-up, character, off-field issues, tools and intellect in making player decisions?

That is the key question and always has been. My first draft as scouting director in 2005, I struggled mightily with this issue. I had so much information coming at me from all sources, and it was my job to figure out the final answer for the organization. That is a huge responsibility, and there is no obvious answer. We all say it’s a blend, but that doesn’t really mean much because everyone has their own biases and unique blend, and they can’t all be right!  

USATSI_10766063-1024x683.jpg
 
(Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports)

Who is the best talent evaluator (besides yourself) that you’ve ever worked with?

I wish I were an elite talent evaluator. I have had success in large part because I’ve recognized that I’m not a good talent evaluator, but I’ve listened to those that are better. From my early days with the Cardinals, I trusted and learned from great scouts like Joe Rigoli, Chuck Fick, Mike Roberts, Aaron Looper and Joe Almaraz. Freddy McCallister was a great scout, and he taught me how to trust the scouts.

Today, I trust our scouting director, Mike Elias, as one of the top evaluators in the game, and he has a number of great evaluators working for him (Ralph Bratton, Jim Stephenson and many more). If I had to take one scout's opinion across any venue (international tryout, pro game, college game, etc), I would take Charlie Gonzalez. Charlie’s advocacy for Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker led to us taking both in 2015 and, so far, both look like home runs for the Astros.

How long did it take to get the José Altuve deal done?

Years. We’ve tried every year for the past three to extend him beyond the years we had control. It’s been a top priority for myself and Jim Crane, and we were thrilled to get it done. He’s one of the greatest sports stories of our generation, and I’m glad he’s going to be an Astro for a long time.

Are Carlos Correa and George Springer the next two on the totem pole? Will you try to retain Dallas Keuchel?

If I could wave a magic wand and keep all three of those guys, plus others here for the foreseeable future and possibly for their entire careers, I would do it! It’s amazing to watch them.

How did you handle the 50-game suspension to your top pitching prospect, Forrest Whitley? How much of a setback will that be in his career and timeline to the show?

Forrest is a great athlete, an amazing pitcher and a really solid person who continues to mature. I believe in Forrest Whitley. His suspension is a minor speed bump, as long as he learns from it, and all indications are that he has and will not make off-the-field mistakes again. The future is bright for Forrest.

Is it true that Kyle Tucker, Derek Fisher and Forrest Whitley were all off limits in the Gerrit Cole trade?

Ha! I can’t disclose our negotiating stance! All I can say is that we gave up a ton of value to get Cole, and it was a fair deal for both sides. I’m also delighted that we have Tucker, Fisher and Whitley still in an Astros uniform because they are all going to be important for us in the future.

How did the Cole trade come down, and did you celebrate when the Pirates said yes?

Neal [Huntington] and I worked a long time and sorted through many iterations before finally landing on this deal. Premature reports that a deal had been done were not accurate and certainly don’t help things. The hardest part was calling Joe Musgrove after he had spent all weekend at our fan fest and telling him he was traded. After it was official, I went on a mini-vacation with my wife for her birthday and definitely celebrated!

Twice now you have made deals (Ken Giles was the other) where you trade quantity for quality. Is that the “signature trade” for you?

To acquire elite talent, you have to typically give up either a corresponding elite player or multiple pieces that could become elite down the road. I’m not afraid of the multi-player trade (one of my first was a nine-player trade with Toronto in 2012) as it allows you to find more common ground. I hope the signature trades for me are deals that are fair to both sides, help both sides accomplish their objectives and help us continue to win.

When you were deciding between Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa to take with the first overall selection in 2012, what were some of the deciding factors? 

Both are elite talents, of course. We saw Buxton as a sure bet and Carlos as a higher upside play. We had Carlos ranked a tick ahead of Buxton, and we wanted the best player. The bonus was being able to create resources to get Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz.

How surprised were you that the Diamondbacks took Dansby Swanson, leaving you the opportunity to draft Alex Bregman?

Not at all. Swanson was regarded by most as the top player in that draft for good reason. We felt Bregman was a better fit for us, and it worked out.

Did you know that Charlie Morton was going to be this good, and what was the plan when you signed him to that club-friendly, free-agent deal?

Charlie’s club option was declined by the Phillies, and it seemed mostly due to his injury risk. We loved his stuff and felt like we could keep him healthy, or that it was at least worth the risk. Brandon Taubman here in the office was a huge advocate and presented a compelling case, including giving him the second year. Charlie has been terrific, and our medical staff deserves an assist for keeping him on the field.

How far away is Kyle Tucker from the major leagues? Any chance we see him before the All-Star break?

Kyle is going to be special. I can’t predict when he will make his debut, but I do see a guy who will be a regular in the middle of our lineup within a year or two.

Will you try to extend Justin Verlander?

Like I said, magic wand waved, Justin finishes his career here in Houston.

Are you confident Ken Giles can learn from last postseason and be more effective this October?

I am. Many of our young players learned from the experience in the Division Series against Kansas City in 2015, and that helped them in 2017. The postseason is brutal for closers, and most struggled at some point last year. Ken’s stuff is elite, and I believe he will channel his energies towards being an elite pitcher in the most important games.

How important were Brian McCann and Carlos Beltrán to last year’s team in terms of leadership?

Having good veteran players who have won before can really stabilize and focus the clubhouse. That’s what happened with these two. They have both been on great teams. They both expected the best from themselves and others around them. It was contagious, and it helped us win it all last year.

How important is it for teams to have players like Marwin González that can play multiple positions?

The last three World Series champions all had super utility players on the roster, as well as others who could play multiple positions. Flexibility in pitching roles and defensive roles is key to maximize the value of any roster, and we will continue to see more versatile players.

Rank the tools in order of importance for position players. For pitchers.

That’s a hard question to answer. For me, it’s combinations of tools that lead to run production or run prevention that matter. Tools in isolation are fun to discuss but don’t lead to major-league success. I tend to bias towards hitters who make consistent hard contact and make good swing decisions, and pitchers who have elite stuff and command of it.

 Your team has been one of the best at utilizing shifts. Why? Do you think we will see position-less baseball in the near future? Even going so far as shifting right and left fielders between batters?

We have seen increasingly creative defensive alignments, and that will only increase. It’s because we have really good information about where the ball is likely to go and how we can best record an out. Not everyone is willing to try it, and it takes players and coaches getting used to it for it to become routine. That’s happened with the infield shift, but it took a while.

Are you in favor of the pitch clock?

I support MLB’s desire to speed the game up and make it more appealing to the next generation of fans. I’m fine with the clock as long as we don’t create additional injury risk for our players.

What cities do you think deserve to be the next two for expansion?

Oakland and Tampa need new stadiums as a first priority … they are both great cities and have good organizations, but they’ve been hamstrung by their stadiums. As far as expansion goes, a team in Mexico would be amazing. Montreal. London. Las Vegas. Many places that might work.

How proud are you of hiring A.J. Hinch as manager? What are his best traits?

Hiring A.J. was a home run for me and for the Astros. He’s smart, he has great instincts, and he soaks up information from those around him. Players like him but also respect him. He’s been the ideal manager for us.  

Describe your World Series ring, and how important was it for the Astros organization to step up and deliver after the hurricane?

Our city suffered the worst storm in history in 2017, and it was devastating. To give our fans some hope and ultimately pride and joy was incredibly satisfying. The ring means so much to me — first championship for the franchise, first for me as a GM. … and it’s absolutely beautiful to boot.

What is your team's biggest need right now?

As with most teams, to stay healthy. We have great players in all spots. Our bullpen will continue to be discussed, and I’m sure at some point we will feel a need there, but most teams do over the course of the season.

Who is the one prospect in your farm system that people aren’t talking about enough?

Probably Yordan Alvarez. This guy is a monster. He’s going to crush baseballs. 

Five years from now, where is Jeff Luhnow and what is he doing?

Sitting right here at Minute Maid Park answering questions from Jim Bowden at The Athletic about how we maintained success since the 2017 championship.

If you could have any job in the world other than GM, what would it be?

I’ve had other really cool jobs. I was an engineer, making stuff. I was a management consultant helping companies reach their goals. I was an entrepreneur who started two companies from scratch. One job I’d like to have in the future is either a minister (but I’d have to go to Divinity school first) or a college professor. But right now, I’m enjoying doing this.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

High School: American High School in Mexico City, Webb School of California

Colleges: University of Pennsylvania, Northwestern University

Majors: Economics and Mechanical Engineering undergraduate; Finance, Management, Marketing and Organizational Behavior in graduate school.

How did you get into the front office? I was hired by Bill Dewitt Jr. in October of 2003 as vice president of baseball development for the St. Louis Cardinals.

How far did you play baseball, what was your position, and give us a quick self-scouting report: JV baseball in ninth grade in Mexico. I was a better tennis player than baseball player, so I focused on tennis later in high school. I was a prospect as a future G.M., but didn’t know it at the time!

Family: Wife Gina, daughter Elizabeth, a sophomore at Penn, son Jeffrey, a senior at Episcopal High School in Houston heading to college next fall, and son Henry, going to pre-school next year.

FAVORITES

Type of music: 1st Wave (Sirius/XM)

Artist: The Cure

Walk-up song: Blue Monday (New Order)

Actor: Jim Carrey

Actress: Emma Stone

Comedian:  Jay Mohr

Book:  Currently reading Truth Decay by Michael Rich from RAND

website: www.WSJ.com

Road city: Seattle

Food: Steak and sushi

What is your diet like?: Almost ZC

Houston restaurant:  Steak 48

TV shows:  Seinfeld reruns. Curb. GOT. Walking Dead. Amazing Race. The Apprentice.

Movies: Anything by Pedro Almodóvar

Car:  2014 Audi S5

Hobbies: Writing, reading, current affairs, economics

Non-baseball accomplishment:  Two patents in my name

Possession: Piece of the Berlin wall, piece of the Fabulous Forum floor

Childhood memory: Church and lunch with family on Sundays in Mexico City

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4 hours ago, wesleywest said:

Two Diamond Club tickets available for the Sunday night game.  Free.  Need to pick them up from me in 77027.

Rules: Poster must be a big contributor to this thread/last years shag thread.  No guests, no lurkers.

First to reply gets them.  

Damn it. Solid gesture though

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Ran into Mattress Mack outside one of his stores tonight. He was rocking the Astros pullover he wore to throw out the first pitch.

We were walking behind him. I can't decide if it's stupid or awesome that I called out "Mattress Mack?" to get his attention.

I guess what else would I call him? Seems weird to call him Mack since I don't know him. Mattress Mack it was. 

Anyway, I thanked him for everything he'd done for the city and took my leave. 

coolstarrybra.gif

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57 minutes ago, runthebone said:

I haven't lived in Houston for over 20 years, and I can still say without hesitation

 

6006 I-45 North between Tidwell and Parker

Gallery Furniture really will save you money!

Just call Gallery, 694-5570.

 

That will be stuck in my brain until the day I die, I bet.

Llama Mr. Norman.

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The former 11th rounder out of Notre Dame, Brandon Bielak, looks like he could be breaking out this season at Buies Creek after tearing up the short season leagues last year.  This org has a nose for pitching talent.  

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10 hours ago, runthebone said:

I haven't lived in Houston for over 20 years, and I can still say without hesitation

 

6006 I-45 North between Tidwell and Parker

Gallery Furniture really will save you money!

Just call Gallery, 694-5570.

 

That will be stuck in my brain until the day I die, I bet.

You must have watched Houston Wrestling. Spent many a Saturday night and Sunday mornings watching with my grandpa. Other than a couple wrestlers my biggest memory is Mattress Mac commercials.

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Was happy to see the bats wake up after LMJ's melt down on Wed. Hopefully that's a good sign going into this weekend against Arlington.

Also, Andrus being out will be good for us - he was on fire in the season opening series.

I'm going Sunday night. Want to see us finish the sweep.

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