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Posted
50 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

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the playoff has to just be awesome for the committee.  they can always put ND in as long as ND can schedule no more than 3 losses, which is pretty easy with their scheduling.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

People say this every year, and yet every year the loss column still matters the most- especially once you hit 3 losses.

Until this thing expands to 16, a 3 loss team won’t be making it.

Disagree. BUT, it requires overrated teams like ND to lose and just general chaos.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BigHorn'13 said:

So basically we need Ole Miss to lose at least once, or aggy twice, plus win out to make the ccg? 

Also got a scenario with Alabama losing one game if the other games break in favor of our previous opponents. Tiebreaker rules steeped in transitive property are brilliant.

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Edited by Bevo14
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Posted
15 minutes ago, Bevo14 said:

Also got a scenario with Alabama losing one game if the other games break in favor of our previous opponents. Tiebreaker rules steeped in transitive property are brilliant.

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That would mean Oklahoma beat Alabama, which bumps them up of course. 

Posted
1 minute ago, ATXbronco said:

That would mean Oklahoma beat Alabama, which bumps them up of course. 

Nope, still works if Auburn beats them instead. Becomes Texas vs Bama in the title game.

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Posted
9 hours ago, wood said:

Hmm ... maybe their coaching is aight.

Of course the coaching is the difference, but still, how is their incredible transformation even possible?
 

 It’s not like this was a great program w great players that just needed a coaching change.
 

Can’t think of another program that is parallel to their rise but there may be a few.

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Posted
9 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

People say this every year, and yet every year the loss column still matters the most- especially once you hit 3 losses.

Until this thing expands to 16, a 3 loss team won’t be making it.

Why are you so aggressive in your stupidity?  

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Posted
9 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Disagree. BUT, it requires overrated teams like ND to lose and just general chaos.

No. It doesn’t. That is one way. Another way is Oregon beats USC (or Iowa or ucla does it), Ohio state beats Michigan, Georgia beats Georgia tech and tech wins the big 12. All those things are absolutely likely to happen. And all would end with Texas in the playoffs at 9-3. 
this is why all the oddsmakers have us with like a 60-75% chance of making the playoffs even though we have like a 17% chance at winning our last 3 games. 
We don’t need chaos (wherever that’s fine if it’s total chaos) we are just fine with order. 
put another way if you are running around and bleating like a moron on the wrong side of a Vegas proposition over 60% you should probably just shut the fuck up and be wrong in your wrongness and maybe read some shit from people smarter than you that lays it out in logical detail, or at least not waive your dick around like an idiot. 

Posted
9 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

People say this every year, and yet every year the loss column still matters the most- especially once you hit 3 losses.

Until this thing expands to 16, a 3 loss team won’t be making it.

The term for people who are absolutely certain about something despite being ignorant is often referred to as exhibiting the "Dunning-Kruger effect." This cognitive bias leads individuals with low ability or knowledge to overestimate their competence.

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Posted
40 minutes ago, TreatyOak said:

Of course the coaching is the difference, but still, how is their incredible transformation even possible?
 

 It’s not like this was a great program w great players that just needed a coaching change.
 

Can’t think of another program that is parallel to their rise but there may be a few.

Great coaching and portal scouting.  I have never seen a program with little to no recent history turn it around this quick.  Closest I can think of is Miami with Schnellenberger who got them to 9-3 in his second season with a final ranking of 18.  Snyder a KSU is the all-time wizard as KSU had never been ranked or won a conference championship.

 

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Posted
56 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

 or at least not waive your dick around like an idiot. 

55 minutes ago, MontereyMX said:

he has the blue ballz   lol

Waiving your dick will do that pretty much every time.

YARN | I choose to waive that right. | The Simpsons (1989 ...

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Posted
10 hours ago, Bevo14 said:

Also got a scenario with Alabama losing one game if the other games break in favor of our previous opponents. Tiebreaker rules steeped in transitive property are brilliant.

image.png.4cbd4ca02888b894436544fdfee6a045.png

So, the key to this one is Florida beating Tennessee. The odd thing, it also works out in our favor if Tennessee beats Florida and Kentucky beats Vandy. Arkansas beating LSU also helps. 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, 66BUFF said:

Great coaching and portal scouting.  I have never seen a program with little to no recent history turn it around this quick.  Closest I can think of is Miami with Schnellenberger who got them to 9-3 in his second season with a final ranking of 18.  Snyder a KSU is the all-time wizard as KSU had never been ranked or won a conference championship.

Those are two good ones, for sure, since they were not traditional powers. Bob Stoops is another with a similar impact at OU, winning the NC in his second year, but they were formerly a powerhouse program, so it's not the same. 

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Posted
33 minutes ago, 66BUFF said:

Great coaching and portal scouting.  I have never seen a program with little to no recent history turn it around this quick.  Closest I can think of is Miami with Schnellenberger who got them to 9-3 in his second season with a final ranking of 18.  Snyder a KSU is the all-time wizard as KSU had never been ranked or won a conference championship.

 

KState in the 80's before Snyder was abysmal.  People forget or never knew how bad that program was.

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Posted

Seth Emerson: Seven SEC teams in the Playoff, including Vanderbilt? Here’s a chaos scenario

Quote

The college football world is not talking enough about how fun it will be to have Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt in the College Football Playoff. OK, technically speaking, nothing is assured. Vanderbilt’s Playoff odds are still only 28 percent. The Commodores still have to beat Kentucky — and wow, what in the name of Motivated Mark Stoops is suddenly happening there — and then win at Tennessee.

However, if they win those two games, they will be 10-2 with the only two losses at Alabama and Texas. They are absolutely in the Playoff in that scenario — or there should be an immediate expansion to 16 teams just to make it happen. Pavia, with his swagger, scrambling, throwing and cursing, is great for college football. Send him and his team — a pretty good one even without him — to play a first-round game somewhere: Texas Tech, Oregon, Notre Dame, whatever.

A year after four duds in the first round, we need to make up for it. Pavia would be appointment viewing. And if it does happen, Vanderbilt would still just be the fifth SEC team in the field. Thus, the vibes in the conference office in Birmingham: high, though growing annoyed, realizing that its sixth, seventh and eighth teams may all end up ranked higher than the champions from the ACC and Group of 5, but will miss out because of the format.

In fact, there’s a not-unreasonable scenario in which the SEC has seven teams with two losses or fewer. Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Texas can all win out without causing Georgia, Alabama, Texas A&M or Ole Miss to reach three losses if each wins its other games. Have fun with all that, everyone who hates the activation of the SEC media apparatus.

But that’s a whole other column. These are the SEC vibes rankings, which, per the requisite reminder, are not a straight-up ranking of each team. They seek to rank the overall feel around the teams and programs, taking into account fan sentiment, momentum and hope.

1. Texas A&M (9-0, 6-0)

Result: Won at Missouri, 38-17
Last week: 1
This week: South Carolina

Just chugging along. The only question is how high the playoff seeding will be. Mike Elko should be SEC coach of the year. He was second to Shane Beamer last year, which was fair. It shouldn’t be close this year. Unless…

2. Vanderbilt (8-2, 4-2)

Result: Won vs. Auburn, 45-38 (OT)
Last week: 6
This week: Bye

Clark Lea’s team needed overtime to win at home against a team that just fired its coach, so feel free to say we’re overreacting here. However, again, this is not a pure ranking; it’s the vibes. It’s Vanderbilt. And it’s winning. And it’s Pavia.

3. Georgia (8-1, 6-1)

Result: Won at Mississippi State, 41-21
Last week: 4
This week: Texas

Yes, consider the opponent. But a) that opponent nearly beat Texas and Tennessee on the same field, and did beat Arizona State, and b) Georgia blew out that opponent in a way it had not anybody but Kentucky in SEC play. That’s a great trajectory for this team. The offense being explosive, running and passing. The defense going into shutdown mode after giving up the customary opening-drive touchdown. That doesn’t mean Georgia is about to roll over Texas and the rest of its schedule. It also doesn’t mean the Bulldogs won’t do that, either.

4. Alabama (8-1, 6-0)

Result: Won vs. LSU, 20-9
Last week: 2
This week: Oklahoma

Was it the most impressive victory? Nah. Is it slightly worrisome coming off the South Carolina game, which required a late rally? Yes, slightly worrisome. There could be a late-season sleepwalking effect going on here. A revived and dangerous Oklahoma team coming to town this week should be a better measurement for whether there’s cause for concern.

5. Ole Miss (9-1, 5-1)

Result: Won vs. The Citadel, 49-0
Last week: 3
This week: Florida

Took care of business, will be heavy favorites in the final two regular-season games, Playoff ticket basically assured: Great vibes. The sought-after head coach is still sought after: Nervous vibes.

6. Texas (7-2, 4-1)

Result: Bye
Last week: 5
This week: at Georgia

The Longhorns sat at home and watched their next opponent (Georgia) finally put together a complete game, and their final opponent (Texas A&M) still looked extremely tough. But before all that, the Longhorns saw the CFP committee rank them No. 11, leading to the realization that 9-3 could be enough for the Longhorns to get in. One cautionary note: That loss at Florida is going to be a real problem.

7. Oklahoma (7-2, 3-2)

Result: Bye
Last week: 7
This week: at Alabama

All apologies to our previous hyperventilating about Vanderbilt. The Sooners are the Playoff contender none of us are talking about. If the Sooners go into Tuscaloosa and win on Saturday, look out. Their final two games are home against a Missouri team on its third-string QB and LSU with its interim coach.

 

Posted

LOL Vanderbilt at #2 because "vibes" when they lost to Texas and needed a comeback and OT to beat fucking Auburn 

The Diego Pavia suckfest is literally the worst thing about this year.  By far. 

Posted

Don’t have much quibble with the AP other than the Miami/ND issue (I’d have both below both BYU and Utah and Miami ahead of ND), and I wouldn’t rank Tennessee. 

Posted
1 hour ago, SimkinsMan said:

The term for people who are absolutely certain about something despite being ignorant is often referred to as exhibiting the "Dunning-Kruger effect." This cognitive bias leads individuals with low ability or knowledge to overestimate their competence.

Arrogant ignorance is another way of putting it.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No. It doesn’t. That is one way. Another way is Oregon beats USC (or Iowa or ucla does it), Ohio state beats Michigan, Georgia beats Georgia tech and tech wins the big 12. All those things are absolutely likely to happen. And all would end with Texas in the playoffs at 9-3. 
this is why all the oddsmakers have us with like a 60-75% chance of making the playoffs even though we have like a 17% chance at winning our last 3 games. 
We don’t need chaos (wherever that’s fine if it’s total chaos) we are just fine with order. 
put another way if you are running around and bleating like a moron on the wrong side of a Vegas proposition over 60% you should probably just shut the fuck up and be wrong in your wrongness and maybe read some shit from people smarter than you that lays it out in logical detail, or at least not waive your dick around like an idiot. 

Whoah chill buddy. I want us in the playoffs as much as you do. I would love for you to be right so let's math this out. Let's say Texas beats aggy and Arky but loses to UGA and finishes with 3 losses. We would need Vandy to lose (they are sitting on 2 losses) and OU to lose. That gets us to 5th in the SEC. Now we have to worry about other conferences. ACC and a G5 will both get a spot. ND will get one unless they lose to Pitt. Big 10 is likely getting 3 with Oregon, OSU, and IU. SEC has 4 guaranteed slots (Aggy, Bama, UGA, Ole Miss). Big 12 getting one or two will be the issue. If Tech stays on current trajectory, they are going to be your big 12 champ with 1 loss. But it's entirely possible that a 1 loss BYU plays Tech in the champ game and loses (or beats) Tech. Then who are they taking? 3 loss Texas over a 2 loss BYU or Tech who lost in the championship game? That doesnt feel like a great bet to me. Bama lost that argument last year. Maybe we win it? 

 

The clearest path feels like ND losing a game. 

Posted

So is it people don’t think we can win out? 
 

if we cannot beat UGA in the regular season we ain’t winning it all anyway…right? 
 

fucking losing to fucking Florida after a fucking bye week. Ridiculous loss. We just need to lace up and win out. Fuck Georgia. 

Posted
15 hours ago, TreatyOak said:

How many fanbases (including ours) are asking themselves today how Indiana managed to create such a great program in less than two years? They brought in a bunch of unknown transfer players and when I watch them, I am amazed. They swarm the ball carrier, they protect the passer, they are really fundamentally sound and they win! Yesterday, they had a backup WR making amazing catches throughout the game. A no-name white-guy backup who looked like Randy Moss.

So happy for them but the hell. 

The shortest answer is great fundamemtal coaching, great talent evaluations, great NIL usage with a focus on both lines, great player development, great alignment of your scheme to both the talent on your team and the weaknesses of your opponent and solid play calling.

Cignetti is running a clinic on how to operate as a HC in the current football world. 

There are others doing it well, some terribly, but right now it's hard to argue that anyone has done it better than Cignetti.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

So is it people don’t think we can win out? 
 

if we cannot beat UGA in the regular season we ain’t winning it all anyway…right? 
 

fucking losing to fucking Florida after a fucking bye week. Ridiculous loss. We just need to lace up and win out. Fuck Georgia. 

My probably very unpopular take is, if we can't beat the top teams of our conference we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. For the record, I hold that to be true of Texas because I hold it to he true of every team. 

Beat the teams in front of us. That's what needs to happen.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

The shortest answer is great fundamemtal coaching, great talent evaluations, great NIL usage with a focus on both lines, great player development, great alignment of your scheme to both the talent on your team and the weaknesses of your opponent and solid play calling.

 

Just to be a bitch, I'll add in: mediocre and inconsistent B1G schedule and a really shitty OOC schedule

2024 - laughable OOC, only played Ohio State (no Oregon or Penn State)
2025 - laughable OOC, no Ohio State (the Illinois and Oregon wins were impressive, I will give them that) 

Posted
6 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

My probably very unpopular take is, if we can't beat the top teams of our conference we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. For the record, I hold that to be true of Texas because I hold it to he true of every team. 

Beat the teams in front of us. That's what needs to happen.

Exactly. It shouldn’t even be an unpopular take. We spent a lot of money on this team. We should be able to beat the best of the best. It’s not rocket science. Stop dropping meaningful regular season games that put us in a back to the wall situation. These games matter. You don’t get to start the season in the playoffs thank goodness bc we only started getting our shit together in the 4th quarter against Miss State. But damn. Win your games. Losing to Florida was stupid as fuck. I hope Pitt tears Notre Damnit a new one. ☝️ 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Why are you so aggressive in your stupidity?  

What the fuck is up your ass about this? You have a whole thread to talk about if 9-3 Texas is “probably” in the playoffs. Some of us disagree with the probability and you won’t let it fucking go. 

It’s a fucking opinion, we can’t prove it either fucking way at this point. 

Posted
12 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Whoah chill buddy. I want us in the playoffs as much as you do. I would love for you to be right so let's math this out. Let's say Texas beats aggy and Arky but loses to UGA and finishes with 3 losses. We would need Vandy to lose (they are sitting on 2 losses) and OU to lose. That gets us to 5th in the SEC. Now we have to worry about other conferences. ACC and a G5 will both get a spot. ND will get one unless they lose to Pitt. Big 10 is likely getting 3 with Oregon, OSU, and IU. SEC has 4 guaranteed slots (Aggy, Bama, UGA, Ole Miss). Big 12 getting one or two will be the issue. If Tech stays on current trajectory, they are going to be your big 12 champ with 1 loss. But it's entirely possible that a 1 loss BYU plays Tech in the champ game and loses (or beats) Tech. Then who are they taking? 3 loss Texas over a 2 loss BYU or Tech who lost in the championship game? That doesnt feel like a great bet to me. Bama lost that argument last year. Maybe we win it? 

 

The clearest path feels like ND losing a game. 

 

If BYU loses a second time to Tech in the CCG, they don't have a compelling argument to be included in the playoffs. In other words, they've definitively and emphatically proven they're not the best team in the country if they lose to the same team twice and, therefore, should not be stealing another team's spot.

I could see that as being the committee's reasoning for excluding them when it comes to selection time.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

My probably very unpopular take is, if we can't beat the top teams of our conference we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. For the record, I hold that to be true of Texas because I hold it to he true of every team. 

Beat the teams in front of us. That's what needs to happen.

That’s the best take. 

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Posted
20 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

My probably very unpopular take is, if we can't beat the top teams of our conference we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. For the record, I hold that to be true of Texas because I hold it to he true of every team. 

Beat the teams in front of us. That's what needs to happen.

this should eliminate aggy.

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Posted

Too late to edit my post above, but if BYU beats Tech in the Big 12 championship game, I think both have a good case for inclusion and giving that conference two spots in the playoffs while lowering Texas’s chances of getting in at 9-3

Posted
22 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

If BYU loses a second time to Tech in the CCG, they don't have a compelling argument to be included in the playoffs. In other words, they've definitively and emphatically proven they're not the best team in the country if they lose to the same team twice and, therefore, should not be stealing another team's spot.

I could see that as being the committee's reasoning for excluding them when it comes to selection time.

Good thing you weren't on the committee last year.

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Posted
11 hours ago, Bevo14 said:

Nope, still works if Auburn beats them instead. Becomes Texas vs Bama in the title game.

Would look impossible on paper, but that series is like the ou game, weird shit happens.

Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

Good thing you weren't on the committee last year.

Bc we lost to Georgia twice?

Im guessing the SECx3 CCG loser isn’t getting left out ever unless they have 4 losses. Which would either be a really bad conference season overall or they got killed in non-conference and crushed SEC Play

Edited by Js1
Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Bc we lost to Georgia twice?

Im guessing the SECx3 CCG loser isn’t getting left out ever unless they have 4 losses. Which would either be a really bad conference season overall or they got killed in non-conference and crushed SEC Play

I agree with you re sec ccg loser never missing a 12 team playoff, absent some absurd conditions.

Just a flippant comment that losing to same team twice should not be disqualifying, but losing to same team twice and playing and beating nobody else worth a shit is IMO.  Kind of like BYU this year.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Nicole44 said:

if we cannot beat UGA in the regular season we ain’t winning it all anyway…right? 

I'm not sure what Texas team is going to show up on a given week, but it's all about getting hot (and consistent) at the right time.  I like to believe Texas is starting to grow up based on the Vandy game, but nobody knows what this young offense is going to do next Saturday.    

And for what it's worth - OSU's loss to Michigan last year was worse loss than Texas dropping an away game late to Georgia (assuming it's close).  That turned out OK for OSU.  Lots of teams have dropped silly games like our florida loss and gone on to win NC's.  Winning is hard and all the crap...

Edited by blutow
typo
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Posted
35 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

Good thing you weren't on the committee last year.

agree but we did take Georgia to OT and basically fucked the game away.

If BYU gets drilled again by Tech it would be different.  If they took Tech to OT it would change how the committee looked at them IMO.

Posted
1 hour ago, BurntEyes said:

The shortest answer is great fundamemtal coaching, great talent evaluations, great NIL usage with a focus on both lines, great player development, great alignment of your scheme to both the talent on your team...

Agreed. I'd rather have his lower-rated, but really smart and coachable players* to the five-star morons who permeate college football. His QB is a prime example. He doesn't have the biggest arm or real speed, but he plays smart and protects the ball. But the player who truly amazed me was their backup WR, Charlie Becker. He made incredible catch after incredible catch.  

*Of course, you have to have smart coaches to coach the coachable players, and there aren't too many coaches like Cignetti. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, TreatyOak said:

Those are two good ones, for sure, since they were not traditional powers. Bob Stoops is another with a similar impact at OU, winning the NC in his second year, but they were formerly a powerhouse program, so it's not the same. 

Stoops also inherited good talent.  John Blake was just too inept to use what he recruited.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Stoops also inherited good talent.  John Blake was just too inept to use what he recruited.

How dare you besmirch the good name of the late and legendary John Blake on this forum!!!! 

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Posted

Boy, the playoff scenario discussions coupled with the SEC CG scenario discussions are just running rampant on this board. It's somewhat fascinating to see. I hope the optimism is warranted. 

I guess I'm stuck in neutral with this team. I can't figure out if I think they've turned a corner or not. The first 7.75 games are lodged front in center in my brain for me when I think about this team. I'm still expecting a blowout at the hands of Georgia this weekend. Just thinking about being 0-5 against UGA and OSU over the last 13 months makes me want to vomit. 

Anywho ... certainly wanting you guys to be right that we're back, baby. 

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Posted
Just now, closetojumping said:

Boy, the playoff scenario discussions coupled with the SEC CG scenario discussions are just running rampant on this board. It's somewhat fascinating to see. I hope the optimism is warranted. 

I guess I'm stuck in neutral with this team. I can't figure out if I think they've turned a corner or not. The first 7.75 games are lodged front in center in my brain for me when I think about this team. I'm still expecting a blowout at the hands of Georgia this weekend. Just thinking about being 0-5 against UGA and OSU over the last 13 months makes me want to vomit. 

Anywho ... certainly wanting you guys to be right that we're back, baby. 

With the aggys winning, Cowboys sucking, and early Christmas decor going up, the optimism is the only thing keeping me sane at this point. 

Posted
1 hour ago, bolverk said:

 

If BYU loses a second time to Tech in the CCG, they don't have a compelling argument to be included in the playoffs. In other words, they've definitively and emphatically proven they're not the best team in the country if they lose to the same team twice and, therefore, should not be stealing another team's spot.

Suspicious Monkey GIF by MOODMAN

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Posted
47 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

I agree with you re sec ccg loser never missing a 12 team playoff, absent some absurd conditions.

Just a flippant comment that losing to same team twice should not be disqualifying, but losing to same team twice and playing and beating nobody else worth a shit is IMO.  Kind of like BYU this year.

 

You make a good point, so I decided to dig into the numbers.

Assuming BYU wins out, and all of their opponents win the games they're supposed to (according to ESPN's current odds), then BYU's strength of schedule is actually better than I'd anticipated: They will have beaten 10-2 Utah, 9-3 ECU, 8-4 Cincy, 8-4 Iowa St., and 7-5 Arizona going into the championship game. So, maybe I'm not giving them enough credit.

Also, according to ESPN's playoff predictor, if BYU wins the rest of its regular-season games but loses to Tech in the championship game, this is what their model spits out for BYU's chances of getting in.

So, it appears that the Big 12 has a strong chance of securing two spots.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor2025/2025-college-football-allstate-playoff-bracket-predictor
image.png.59d1e21cb2d40f4f2a519eeba8fc61b9.png

Posted
17 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Boy, the playoff scenario discussions coupled with the SEC CG scenario discussions are just running rampant on this board. It's somewhat fascinating to see. I hope the optimism is warranted. 

I guess I'm stuck in neutral with this team. I can't figure out if I think they've turned a corner or not. The first 7.75 games are lodged front in center in my brain for me when I think about this team. I'm still expecting a blowout at the hands of Georgia this weekend. Just thinking about being 0-5 against UGA and OSU over the last 13 months makes me want to vomit. 

Anywho ... certainly wanting you guys to be right that we're back, baby. 

ESPN gives these odds for the next three games, and if all plays out accordingly, Texas would miss the championship game but still have a better than even shot at getting in with a 9-3 record.

If Texas beats Georgia but loses to A&M, the odds of making the playoffs doesn't change materially, regardless of whether the Longhorns don't make (or even if they do lose) the championship game. Make the game but lose: 57% chance of getting in. Don't make the game: 59% chance of getting in.

Gotta go 2-1 in these next two.

image.png.600999a317686b579cb60fc1e22adfe8.png

image.png.6c8e3a24b2826ca47a976dab54433d9b.png

Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Boy, the playoff scenario discussions coupled with the SEC CG scenario discussions are just running rampant on this board. It's somewhat fascinating to see. I hope the optimism is warranted. 

I guess I'm stuck in neutral with this team. I can't figure out if I think they've turned a corner or not. The first 7.75 games are lodged front in center in my brain for me when I think about this team. I'm still expecting a blowout at the hands of Georgia this weekend. Just thinking about being 0-5 against UGA and OSU over the last 13 months makes me want to vomit. 

Anywho ... certainly wanting you guys to be right that we're back, baby. 

I'll be clear, until I see our head coach consistently align his offensive scheme to the talent he has available I'm sadly forced to view his historical approach as most likely. I want to be wrong, but too many examples indicate that against a top defenses he commonly over analyzes and applies an extremely complex scheme. Sadly, even last years substantially superior OL and more veteran skill players struggled with said overly complex offensive plan at various points. (See UG 1 and 2, and OSU 1 for evidence)

Prove me wrong Steve and make me look like an idiot! I tripple dog dare you!!

Edited by BurntEyes
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Posted
1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Boy, the playoff scenario discussions coupled with the SEC CG scenario discussions are just running rampant on this board. It's somewhat fascinating to see. I hope the optimism is warranted. 

I guess I'm stuck in neutral with this team. I can't figure out if I think they've turned a corner or not. The first 7.75 games are lodged front in center in my brain for me when I think about this team. I'm still expecting a blowout at the hands of Georgia this weekend. Just thinking about being 0-5 against UGA and OSU over the last 13 months makes me want to vomit. 

Anywho ... certainly wanting you guys to be right that we're back, baby. 

I'm in a similar spot with the team. I do think Hutson at LG and Robertson at C is the best OL starting 5 we've had all year and that is a significant improvement, even if the OL still isn't great. I want to believe Sark has finally figured out what Arch and this offense can execute well, which is more of a true spread offense with quick screens, spreading the defense out, and giving Arch easy reads, but the fact Sark said in his presser that the offense we ran against Vandy wasn't really the game plan and he just kept calling it because it worked seems like quite the red flag. 

 

I think this UGA game will come down to whether Sark actually understands what this offense needs to run. UGA's pass rush is worse than it's ever been since Kirby Smart took over. They get very little pressure with their front four and have to blitz LBs to create pressure, which leaves them vulnerable to QB scrambling and quick hitting WR screens and slants.  That is basically the offense Sark should be running, so if he can pull his head out of his ass, I think we have a very good chance to win. If he wastes the first quarter or two trying to revert back to what he wants this offense to be able to run, then we probably have no shot. Gunner Stockton is a very good college QB.  I expect our defense can slow him down, but they will be able to put up points and move the ball against every defense in the country. We need our offense to score at least high 20s to have a chance at winning. 

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Posted
47 minutes ago, bolverk said:

ESPN gives these odds for the next three games, and if all plays out accordingly, Texas would miss the championship game but still have a better than even shot at getting in with a 9-3 record.

If Texas beats Georgia but loses to A&M, the odds of making the playoffs doesn't change materially, regardless of whether the Longhorns don't make (or even if they do lose) the championship game. Make the game but lose: 57% chance of getting in. Don't make the game: 59% chance of getting in.

Gotta go 2-1 in these next two.

image.png.600999a317686b579cb60fc1e22adfe8.png

image.png.6c8e3a24b2826ca47a976dab54433d9b.png

If I gave the impression that I didn't understand where the dialog was coming from, and what the numbers are, I apologize. I was more commenting on what I actually believe about this team, which is that they're going to wind up 8-4 or 7-5 based on what I've seen up to now. You will be able to knock me over with a feather if Texas beats UGA. They should beat Arkansas and I think ATM is a paper tiger, but this team and this staff's performance this year gives me a lot of pause. 

5 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

I'm in a similar spot with the team. I do think Hutson at LG and Robertson at C is the best OL starting 5 we've had all year and that is a significant improvement, even if the OL still isn't great. I want to believe Sark has finally figured out what Arch and this offense can execute well, which is more of a true spread offense with quick screens, spreading the defense out, and giving Arch easy reads, but the fact Sark said in his presser that the offense we ran against Vandy wasn't really the game plan and he just kept calling it because it worked seems like quite the red flag. 

 

I think this UGA game will come down to whether Sark actually understands what this offense needs to run. UGA's pass rush is worse than it's ever been since Kirby Smart took over. They get very little pressure with their front four and have to blitz LBs to create pressure, which leaves them vulnerable to QB scrambling and quick hitting WR screens and slants.  That is basically the offense Sark should be running, so if he can pull his head out of his ass, I think we have a very good chance to win. If he wastes the first quarter or two trying to revert back to what he wants this offense to be able to run, then we probably have no shot. Gunner Stockton is a very good college QB.  I expect our defense can slow him down, but they will be able to put up points and move the ball against every defense in the country. We need our offense to score at least high 20s to have a chance at winning. 

Look at you, even you are optimistic to some degree. I'm starting to feel like I need to post a reverse jinx thread of some sort.

My problem with the UGA front 4 performance is that they weren't putting up great numbers ahead of the game last year and then they lit Texas up. I hope the front 4 really is as weak as they've looked. Obviously the LBs are just about as good as anyone's, and that's the strength of their D. I wonder how much they're going to be used in blitz packages. I assume a lot.

This game might close the book for me on Sarkisian. If he trots out another shitty gameplan when there are obvious routes otherwise for fielding a competitive outcome, I'm just going to assume that's what he's going to do every time Texas plays anyone formidable on defense, and begin cheering him on to his exit for one of the NFL roles he's rumored to be pursuing. 

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