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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

9-3 is too close to 8-4 especially with Samford on the schedule.

Samfords were there every year to ensure the 8 in 8 and 4

Edited by WBT
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Posted
24 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

I am holding out hope that Pittsburgh will beat Notre Damnit and do us all a favor and knock their asses out of the playoffs. 🤞 

I think Pitt is capable and pray to baby Jesus to make it so. I said early in the season any 10 win ND team gets in the playoffs regardless of the 2 losses and rest of their season schedule. That isn't changing and its truly frustrating.

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Posted
57 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Agreed. Indiana is good, but they’d be happy to be there. Cigs won’t, maybe the team won’t, but their fans will be happy to be there. 

 

What do the fans have to do with anything? They aren’t playing the game.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Pancho said:

 

What do the fans have to do with anything? They aren’t playing the game.

“Well you know Holly, I told the boys before the game, the fans are happy we made it, but if we don’t get past the first game, it’s fine. So we won’t really try that hard” 

🙄 

Posted
6 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

I think Pitt is capable and pray to baby Jesus to make it so. I said early in the season any 10 win ND team gets in the playoffs regardless of the 2 losses and rest of their season schedule. That isn't changing and its truly frustrating.

They play 10 P4 teams with Boise and Navy as the G5s.  They'd be plenty deserving at 10-2.

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Posted (edited)

I think Indiana is a good team but have as little confidence as possible in that.  It's hard to make sense of where Oregon or Iowa sit and the other games are useless.

In general, it is hard to compare between the P2 conferences.  There's one data point in TX-OSU and even that is hard to make sense of because the OSU defense has been wildly inconsistent, and Texas has improved on offense.

There's a decent chance for Tech, North Texas, and aggy to all make the playoffs this year.

I saw a metric to compare football teams and conferences across years that had SEC 2025 as the strongest conference since the 70s Big 8.  That actually seems accurate.

Edited by JBJ
Posted

This is tracking like every analysis on message boards: no team in the top 10 deserves to be there except maybe the top-ranked but there’s no nomination for who actually belongs there except maybe (checks notes) Pitt and Iowa. 

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Posted
53 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Stunning statistic. Think about all the 3 and outs, short fields, and quick changes Auburn’s defense has dealt with. 
 

Durkin is a snake, but he can coach defense. 

They have NFL talent all over the roster on that side of the ball. Truly speaks to the mistake of Arnold and Freeze’s offensive ineptitude. Kendrick Faulk is a potential day 1 pick, maybe in the top half.

And they stomped Baylor which is why I’m skeptical that the bottom of the Big XII is better than the bottom of the SEC. 

Posted
3 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

If not for the WTF loss to Florida in a “win one for the gipper” game (that only delayed Napier’s exit), I’d feel pretty damn good about this season.

We’re in a win or go home scenario for the playoffs. 2008 taught us we’re capable of being left out for a bad loss. Well, if Arch wants a legacy and a high draft pick- everything is still able to be earned. Go win it. 

I agree with the premise of the statement, but the Tech loss wasn’t a bad loss.  It was just at a bad time for it to occur.  They were top 10 and undefeated for that Halloween clown show.

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Posted
3 hours ago, BigHornedLurker said:

I'll just take this opportunity to again once say ND is overrated. 

Their best win is USC , who is not currently ranked. 

They lost to a flailing Miami who probably won't finished ranked. 

Having ND above Texas , and a handful of other similarly ranked teams is horse shit 

ND will always be overrated.  Until they are required to play an eight or nine game conference schedule and the rigors that goes along with it, they will go 9-3, 10-2 for the foreseeable future.  This five game per year agreement they have with the ACC is non sense.   

Plus they are the sports media darlings. Been that way for generations because many of them have connections to Norte Dame.  

Posted
2 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

aggy is fool's gold.  Their "signature" win over ND will prove to be smoke & mirrors once the playoffs start.  Then you have the obvious 6-20 conference wins/losses.  

Then you have next year.  They graduate a ton of key starters, and have to play Alabama, LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma, & South Carolina on the road.  

Maybe they will hire Jackie Sherril as a consultant and set up an account with Fed Ex?

Posted
5 hours ago, BigOrange1 said:

I definitely agree with you on Oregon.  They are getting a lot of benefit of the doubt due right now considering their signature win was the Penn State game.  They may be good, but their resume is definitely not one that matches their current ranking.

The Big Ten has too many teams.  Its ridiculous how many of the teams at the top of the conference do not play each other.  

I mean, you could say the same about the SEC.  Current top 8 are

aggies

bama

ole miss

UGA

UT

OU

Vandy

Tenn

aggies play exactly ONE of those teams

 

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Posted
2 hours ago, WBT said:

They play 10 P4 teams with Boise and Navy as the G5s.  They'd be plenty deserving at 10-2.

The schedule ranking metrics don't agree. 

Among all the polls the highest ranking of their schedule is 13 in Sagrin and usually in the 20s. In fact, in most polls aggie out ranks them in SOS. You gonna look me in the eyes and say a 10 win Aggie team is also deserving? Would you say both are more deserving than say...

A 10 win Texas team? 

SOS Rankings because Data trumps opinion

Posted
7 minutes ago, Jimbob said:

I mean, you could say the same about the SEC.  Current top 8 are

aggies

bama

ole miss

UGA

UT

OU

Vandy

Tenn

aggies play exactly ONE of those teams

 

Yep. The last year a SEC team can hide and of course aggy is 8-0. I agreed with the scheduling formula while hating the 8 game conference schedule. This is an unfortunate result of the small schools bitching and moaning about maintaining bowl eligibility. 

I will give aggy credit for scheduling Notre Dame. That said, scheduling Samford is shameful. 

Posted

I am sad we are three-quarters already through the season. That's a bummer. We waited for 182 years for it to finally arrive, and poof!, it's already coming to a close. I don't care about the NFL or their playoffs. The NFL is boring unless my team is playing. 
 

Indiana is fucking awesome and I love it! They are absolutely a top 5 team. I can see them making the semis, and depending on who they match up against, I can also see them making the NCG. Can they win it? Not sure, but I don't bet against Cignetti. It would be the biggest NC game winner of all-time. Unranked-2/3* recruits to winning it all would be absolute heroin. 

 

Posted
29 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

The schedule ranking metrics don't agree. 

Among all the polls the highest ranking of their schedule is 13 in Sagrin and usually in the 20s. In fact, in most polls aggie out ranks them in SOS. You gonna look me in the eyes and say a 10 win Aggie team is also deserving? Would you say both are more deserving than say...

A 10 win Texas team? 

SOS Rankings because Data trumps opinion

A 10-2 A&M would have the H2H against ND. A 10-2 Texas would have clearly better wins across the board. 
 

That freshman QB at Pitt will command some big money in the portal. That said, he’s doing freshman things against a top 25 ND defense, and ND can lean on Love against a Pitt D that’s given up 30+ four times this year. 

Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

A 10-2 A&M would have the H2H against ND. A 10-2 Texas would have clearly better wins across the board. 
 

That freshman QB at Pitt will command some big money in the portal. That said, he’s doing freshman things against a top 25 ND defense, and ND can lean on Love against a Pitt D that’s given up 30+ four times this year. 

We're not in disagreement, but the 10 win ND deserves to be in arguments don't past muster with me. Not in and of themselves using their schedule to defend it. 

Edit - Don't take that to mean I don't think ND will get in the CFP with 10 wins. They 100% will.

Edited by BurntEyes
Posted
Just now, BurntEyes said:

We're not in disagreement, but the 10 win ND deserves to be in arguments don't past muster with me. No in and of themselves based on schedule. 

It will depend on a lot of things but they won’t necessarily not deserve it, either. If we are talking “deserve” let’s be real and admit that none of the G5 is really a top 12 team. The ACC probably doesn’t have one either. If we are talking about the best 12 teams I’m going with OSU, IU, Alabama, Georgia, A&M, Ole Miss, Oregon, Texas, OU, ND, and one of BYU or Tech. 
 

My simple ask with ND is: tell me who behind them is clearly better based on record, roster, and coaching. Right now, not based on projected W-L. 
 

image.thumb.png.2f2dca3eaf49e2b75ac9a51f98690a7f.png

 

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Posted

I predicted another semi final loss this season and I’m sticking with it.  As long as the offense can perform at an average level the rest of the season, we’re good.  

Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

It will depend on a lot of things but they won’t necessarily not deserve it, either. If we are talking “deserve” let’s be real and admit that none of the G5 is really a top 12 team. The ACC probably doesn’t have one either. If we are talking about the best 12 teams I’m going with OSU, IU, Alabama, Georgia, A&M, Ole Miss, Oregon, Texas, OU, ND, and one of BYU or Tech. 
 

My simple ask with ND is: tell me who behind them is clearly better based on record, roster, and coaching. Right now, not based on projected W-L. 
 

image.thumb.png.2f2dca3eaf49e2b75ac9a51f98690a7f.png

 

Notre Dame has beaten:

Purdue (2-7)

Arkansas (2-7)

Boise State (6-3)

NCSU (5-4)

USC (6-2)

USC and NCSU have peaked. Boise State is a MAC team. 

And lost to 

Aggie

Miami (6-2) and they'll like drop 1 or 2 more. 

I'd take Utah, Georgia Tech, and Vandy to beat ND. I don't love Vandy either. I put Vandy and ND on a similar level. I would put GT and Utah (lost to Tech and BYU) ahead of ND based on record, schedule and body of work. I also think Louisville would challenge ND and I've openly pooped on the ACC.

I think resume wise right now, Texas is a half hitch below ND but its really close. The Florida loss is the variance in favor of ND.

Edited by BurntEyes
Posted
5 hours ago, Vato Macho said:

What's interesting is most Aggies I know in real life are not thumping their chest. I think deep down they know they haven't proven anything. 

 

4 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Agreed. They seem unusually cautious. I’d imagine there’s a small amount of pant pissing about going on the road against Mizzou.

I’ve noticed this as well.  In years past I would see tons of aggy polos at the office until they started losing games.  This year, the number of aggy shirts has been way down.  We did have a big layoff this year so maybe aggy caught the brunt of it?

Posted
4 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Notre Dame has beaten:

Purdue (2-7)

Arkansas (2-7)

Boise State (6-3)

NCSU (5-4)

USC (6-2)

USC and NCSU have peaked. Boise State is a MAC team. 

And lost to 

Aggie

Miami (6-2) and they'll like drop 1 or 2 more. 

I'd take Utah, Georgia Tech, and Vandy to beat ND. I don't love Vandy either. I put Vandy and ND on a similar level. I would put GT and Utah (lost to Tech and BYU) ahead of ND based on record, schedule and body of work.

I think resume wise right now, Texas is a half hitch below ND but its really close. 

Tech and ND have a common opponent: NCSU thumped the Yellow Jackets and ND completely wrecked the Wolfpack. Transitive property and all but GaTech has struggled a lot more against some pretty terrible teams and have relied on Haynes King doing it all. ND has not really stumbled since the early season. Tech and now Virginia are the only teams I look at in tje current top 25 and really think “overrated.”
 

Vandy and Utah are interesting choices. Vandy has looked overmatched against more talented rosters and relies on hero ball as well. ND is a more complete team. They could lose that game but are better everywhere on the field save QB and maybe TE— Stowers is a dude.  
 

Utah intrigues me the most of all the ones you pick. I’d honestly be more likely to slot UT ahead of ND before any of these. If Texas plays well, they’re much better than Vandy or GaTech for sure. 

Posted
51 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

It will depend on a lot of things but they won’t necessarily not deserve it, either. If we are talking “deserve” let’s be real and admit that none of the G5 is really a top 12 team. The ACC probably doesn’t have one either. If we are talking about the best 12 teams I’m going with OSU, IU, Alabama, Georgia, A&M, Ole Miss, Oregon, Texas, OU, ND, and one of BYU or Tech. 
 

My simple ask with ND is: tell me who behind them is clearly better based on record, roster, and coaching. Right now, not based on projected W-L. 
 

image.thumb.png.2f2dca3eaf49e2b75ac9a51f98690a7f.png

 

I look at it slightly different. I don’t think there is a clear #1 team. There is more parity than ever before. If we play Ohio State again, we’ll whip that ass. But, I also accept the possibility that we could get our ass beat by any team in the top 20 on any given night. Every team has shown a weakness. Or has played a schedule full of average teams 

Posted
13 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Notre Dame has beaten:

Purdue (2-7)

Arkansas (2-7)

Boise State (6-3)

NCSU (5-4)

USC (6-2)

USC and NCSU have peaked. Boise State is a MAC team. 

And lost to 

Aggie

Miami (6-2) and they'll like drop 1 or 2 more. 

I'd take Utah, Georgia Tech, and Vandy to beat ND. I don't love Vandy either. I put Vandy and ND on a similar level. I would put GT and Utah (lost to Tech and BYU) ahead of ND based on record, schedule and body of work. I also think Louisville would challenge ND and I've openly pooped on the ACC.

I think resume wise right now, Texas is a half hitch below ND but its really close. The Florida loss is the variance in favor of ND.

Do you work for a ESPN talking head show? You just spent most of your post reasoning Notre Dame doesn’t have a quality win, but they have better losses than Texas. 
 

Texas has 2 top 10 wins. Wins matter. “Quality” losses are something that Joe Lunardi made up. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Tech and ND have a common opponent: NCSU thumped the Yellow Jackets and ND completely wrecked the Wolfpack. Transitive property and all but GaTech has struggled a lot more against some pretty terrible teams and have relied on Haynes King doing it all. ND has not really stumbled since the early season. Tech and now Virginia are the only teams I look at in tje current top 25 and really think “overrated.”
 

Vandy and Utah are interesting choices. Vandy has looked overmatched against more talented rosters and relies on hero ball as well. ND is a more complete team. They could lose that game but are better everywhere on the field save QB and maybe TE— Stowers is a dude.  
 

Utah intrigues me the most of all the ones you pick. I’d honestly be more likely to slot UT ahead of ND before any of these. If Texas plays well, they’re much better than Vandy or GaTech for sure. 

Well, Texas inconsistencies and struggles against lower teams is my hesitation. The big * your comment above about Texas over ND come down to simply "when Texas plays well". I am very strongly of the opinion that the bulk of Texas issues the year have stemmed directly from offensive play calls. I agree with your assessment in broad terms about Texas being better, but for me proof is in the pudding and Georgia will tell me if Sark continue the Vandy/OU/2nd half MSU game plan. If so, I do think Texas is very capable of winning out. Georgia is very good but currently beatable. 

I agree with your hero ball take on Vandy and in broader terms as well. I've admitted my soft spot bias for GT with you prior, but in counter point I've watched them a lot. They got a lot of heart and grit. They are absolutely a team effort group and have a belief they can win. I've seen that go a long way. 

Posted
2 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

The schedule ranking metrics don't agree. 

Among all the polls the highest ranking of their schedule is 13 in Sagrin and usually in the 20s. In fact, in most polls aggie out ranks them in SOS. You gonna look me in the eyes and say a 10 win Aggie team is also deserving? Would you say both are more deserving than say...

A 10 win Texas team? 

SOS Rankings because Data trumps opinion

No I'm telling you they'll be in the top 12

Posted
16 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Well, Texas inconsistencies and struggles against lower teams is my hesitation. The big * your comment above about Texas over ND come down to simply "when Texas plays well". I am very strongly of the opinion that the bulk of Texas issues the year have stemmed directly from offensive play calls. I agree with your assessment in broad terms about Texas being better, but for me proof is in the pudding and Georgia will tell me if Sark continue the Vandy/OU/2nd half MSU game plan. If so, I do think Texas is very capable of winning out. Georgia is very good but currently beatable. 

I agree with your hero ball take on Vandy and in broader terms as well. I've admitted my soft spot bias for GT with you prior, but in counter point I've watched them a lot. They got a lot of heart and grit. They are absolutely a team effort group and have a belief they can win. I've seen that go a long way. 

I watch a LOT of games, will admit I don’t follow GT as closely as you. 

My own take is that Vandy and Tech can play pretty well and still likely go down against ND. They need hero ball or some serious ND mistakes. Maybe both. 

Texas and ND both playing well against each other is a much closer run thing, maybe edge Texas. 

Georgia has looked uninspired for long stretches and never really dominant. They better come to play against Texas. They can’t just out-athlete y’all. 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, WBT said:

No I'm telling you they'll be in the top 12

No you said:

4 hours ago, WBT said:

They play 10 P4 teams with Boise and Navy as the G5s.  They'd be plenty deserving at 10-2.

I said from the start:

4 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

I think Pitt is capable and pray to baby Jesus to make it so. I said early in the season any 10 win ND team gets in the playoffs regardless of the 2 losses and rest of their season schedule. That isn't changing and its truly frustrating.

You brought in deserve based on their schedule.

We've not disagreed on making the CFP, we've disagreed on merit of it based on schedule and performance. 

You moved the goal post and avoided my question. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I watch a LOT of games, will admit I don’t follow GT as closely as you. 

My own take is that Vandy and Tech can play pretty well and still likely go down against ND. They need hero ball or some serious ND mistakes. Maybe both. 

Texas and ND both playing well against each other is a much closer run thing, maybe edge Texas. 

Georgia has looked uninspired for long stretches and never really dominant. They better come to play against Texas. They can’t just out-athlete y’all. 

I mean, perhaps I'm misreading, but it seems like we are largely in agreement save some minutiae over opinions we'll never be able to settle. So... I'll just tip my cap and say I really appreciate the logical, non-rhetoric based discussion. 

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Posted
15 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

No you said:

I said from the start:

You brought in deserve based on their schedule.

We've not disagreed on making the CFP, we've disagreed on merit of it based on schedule and performance. 

You moved the goal post and avoided my question. 

They will be in the top 12 and will deserve to be.

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Posted
6 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Agreed. Indiana is good, but they’d be happy to be there. Cigs won’t, maybe the team won’t, but their fans will be happy to be there. 

What does the last part off this even mean? 

Posted
4 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

Mid season ND struggled against 1-8 Boston College last weekend 

No they didn’t. They had a slow start and missed some kicks. They never trailed, they outgained BC 458-281, picked them off 3 times, and Love looked like a Heisman candidate. 
 

The kicking inconsistency is one reason they are a T2 and not T1 team. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

No they didn’t. They had a slow start and missed some kicks. They never trailed, they outgained BC 458-281, picked them off 3 times, and Love looked like a Heisman candidate. 
 

The kicking inconsistency is one reason they are a T2 and not T1 team. 

And still only scored 25 points against a 1-8 team 

 

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