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2018 midterm gameday thread


Zonahorn

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Cook Report March 3, 2017

“To pick up 24 seats, Dems will need to overcome their voters' urban concentration and GOP-drawn maps, and reach into Trump country. Trump's approval probably needs to be at or below 35% for House to flip”   

Trump’s at 44%.   Dems gaining 35+

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22 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Cook Report March 3, 2017

“To pick up 24 seats, Dems will need to overcome their voters' urban concentration and GOP-drawn maps, and reach into Trump country. Trump's approval probably needs to be at or below 35% for House to flip”   

Trump’s at 44%.   Dems gaining 35+

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Maybe trumps approval rating is too high?

 

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McSally and Scott are in two different situations. McSally is behind, now by 20k.    I suppose she could have called for the vote count to have stopped election night but the state and county were reporting that they still had votes uncounted.  I don’t see the gops argument in what McSally should have demanded.

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17 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

McSally and Scott are in two different situations. McSally is behind, now by 20k.    I suppose she could have called for the vote count to have stopped election night but the state and county were reporting that they still had votes uncounted.  I don’t see the gops argument in what McSally should have demanded.

You’re missing the point.  There is no “argument.”  There is only conspiracy theory and cynical propaganda. And that’s all they need. 

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57 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Then good for McSally to let the votes speak for themselves and not be a slave to the infowars mentality.  I predict a quick death fro her in the gop even if she pulls out a win in AZ. 

AZ Governor also weighs in 

 

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7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Regardless of the result, I do agree that each county should be very transparent on votes to be counted.  Whether that is provisional or mailed votes that are allowed to arrive after Election Day.   

McSally lost in 12 on late counted and won in 14 on a very long, drawn out count. She’s completely familiar with how this goes.

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Not well publicized but good move by Mississippi in rejecting Chris McDaniel in their Senate special election to replace Cochran's remaining term.  McDaniel came in 3rd so he won't make the run-off on Nov 27th.  It's MS so a Republican candidate will most likely prevail but McDaniel was a bad hombre.  Around the Kavanaugh confirmation, he made a statement that 99% of all sexual assault accusations are made-up by the accuser.   

Law enforcement should look into his past and speak to women that have been around him.   

 

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10 hours ago, Stringer said:

All snark aside, good on McSally for letting this play out.  I don't have much love for her, but respect her in this situation.  She is being an adult, unlike Scott (and the rest of the R's) in FL.

She’s preserving her political future more than any sense of doing the right thing. She knows how the process works.  She knows the EV thing isn’t going to work for Trump in 2020, especially with Arizona flipping now.  

She will be back, either as a Rep, or in the empty seat, or state.  

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1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Please baby Jesus, let Jeff Flakes seat go to a democrat.  

What’s funny is Flake could have easily run a half assed campaign and probably won. 

Well, either way it’s going to someone with a pussy, so it’s staying in the family.

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2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Please baby Jesus, let Jeff Flakes seat go to a democrat.  

What’s funny is Flake could have easily run a half assed campaign and probably won. 

That race is pretty well over. If you’re going to use up your baby jesus prayers, use them on a recount flip in Florida. Nelson isn’t much to write home about, but Scott has been a shit show.

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1 minute ago, Brew said:

That race is pretty well over. If you’re going to use up your baby jesus prayers, use them on a recount flip in Florida. Nelson isn’t much to write home about, but Scott has been a shit show.

I don't think any of the Florida results are gonna change during the recount.   Just create more political theater and angst

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The level of dishonesty by republicans is shocking. Has it always been this bad or is this the Trump effect? Like this from Newt Gingrich.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/newt-gingrich-as-democrats-try-to-steal-elections-their-dishonesty-threatens-the-very-fabric-of-our-country

In Arizona, you can bet that many of the 400,000 mail-in ballots still outstanding will turn out to be non-existent or cast by illegal immigrants – or simply made-up by the election officials in two of the state’s most liberal counties. Already, the Arizona Republican Party has alleged that left-wing election officials in one county destroyed evidence related to early voting irregularities.

 

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9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If I understand correctly, if .5% separate them, it first is a machine recount. I assume they re-upload all of the totals of each machine.  If that creates a difference of .25% or less, they rescan each ballot.  

 

.25 is the threshold for a hand recount. 

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McSally finally had an over performance but it was a small county dump - 1700 votes in Navajo that was +19 more Republican. There’s no more votes left there. Only shaved 429 votes off Sinema’s lead though. 

3 very red counties reported today and McSally only cut about 1,000 votes into her deficit. 

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1 hour ago, horncyclist said:

The level of dishonesty by republicans is shocking. Has it always been this bad or is this the Trump effect? Like this from Newt Gingrich.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/newt-gingrich-as-democrats-try-to-steal-elections-their-dishonesty-threatens-the-very-fabric-of-our-country

In Arizona, you can bet that many of the 400,000 mail-in ballots still outstanding will turn out to be non-existent or cast by illegal immigrants – or simply made-up by the election officials in two of the state’s most liberal counties. Already, the Arizona Republican Party has alleged that left-wing election officials in one county destroyed evidence related to early voting irregularities.

 

 

I can’t wait until newt Gingrich goes away. He’s dumb as fuck and an embarrassment to the country. He said there would be a red wave at least 50 times this year. Well so much for that.

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Just now, Voldemort86 said:

I can’t wait until newt Gingrich goes away. He’s dumb as fuck and an embarrassment to the country. He said there would be a red wave at least 50 times this year. Well so much for that.

The most dishonest is that it’s not a wave of Dems only pickup 39-40 seats bc GOP got 63 in 2010. 

GOP started that cycle with 179 seats. Dems started 2018 with 193. So of course the GOP picked up more that year. They had way less seats, so more opportunities. 

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

The most dishonest is that it’s not a wave of Dems only pickup 39-40 seats bc GOP got 63 in 2010. 

GOP started that cycle with 179 seats. Dems started 2018 with 193. So of course the GOP picked up more that year. They had way less seats, so more opportunities. 

Not to mention the map was much more favorable to the GOP. The democrats had to win on the heavily rigged map that resulted from the 2010 tea party election. Repubs rigged things there way hardcore. Probably the most rigged gerrymander in history. 

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Pima posted. Sinema adds about 5k to her advantage. She’s over 1 mill votes. 23900 vote advantage 

Absolutely wiped out the 2,000 vote advantage McSally got earlier from smaller and redder counties to cut the deficit under 20. It’s back above 20 and then some. 

Maricopa vote dump shortly 

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10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Pima posted. Sinema adds about 5k to her advantage. She’s over 1 mill votes. 23900 vote advantage 

Absolutely wiped out the 2,000 vote advantage McSally got earlier from smaller and redder counties to cut the deficit under 20. It’s back above 20 and then some. 

Maricopa vote dump shortly 

The big question is what’s left after the Maricopa dump?

 

arent counties favorable to sinema dropping on Tuesday?

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2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

The big question is what’s left after the Maricopa dump?

 

arent counties favorable to sinema dropping on Tuesday?

Pima has a more votes (like 36k) + 10k in Coconino. 

After the dump, we should get a count of how many is left where. But a lot of red rural counties are done or only have less than 1-2k left 

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3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Pima has a more votes (like 36k) + 10k in Coconino. 

After the dump, we should get a count of how many is left where. But a lot of red rural counties are done or only have less than 1-2k left 

And sinema is from Phoenix ( Maricopa) Yes?

rural meth head trailer park votes are in already. I’d say a pickup looks likely at this point.

mcstinky and Walters going down would make me want to spike football.

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