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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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8 minutes ago, F250 said:

The Russians do seem to be lacking a significant amount of trained and equipped soldiers. I don't doubt that they will just sling hoards of bodies at the Ukrainians but damn that is going to be one big fucking body count for the Russians.

 

 

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Bullets in a grandma bag hidden in the coop

From comments

S: Here, friends, we are in the recently liberated Peremoha ("Victory"), and obviously the locals are happily welcoming us, and here this one woman comes to us and says "boys, let's go, especially for you I snatched a zinc of ammo from invaders. We don't know what kind of ammo, but I snatched it, they could've shot us with it but I stole it for our army". So here, see, right in the hiding place...

W: These are not all!

S: Ohh, what have we here, 25.8s? 25.8s! Alright, record this.

W: And here... Vova, can you help me take it out? There's some more, I shoved them all in there.

S2: We'll help.

W: I throwed them in there.

S: Wonderful.

W: They're all brand new.

S2: I see, I see, I see, I see.

S: Well, as you can see, the partisan movement cannot be stopped, because the partisan movement is all Ukrainians. And that's how we're winning. Glory to Ukraine.

S2: Glory to the heroes.

Edited by cactusflinthead
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12 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

I dunno. I haven't seen the Russians actually dig in well and show they have a clue. It's an uncoordinated mess. The one half decent trench of the Russians that I have seen so far wasn't hardened at all. The Ukr had fucking one foot diameter logs top and front. The UKR has food, gear,knowledge of terrain, and above all else a burning desire to be there. The Russians are drinking pond water and eating dogs or whatever else they can forage. By 'forage' I mean steal from the locals. 

The night witches will keep coming for them. Dropping bombs and hunting them down. I'm starting to think the UKR wants them to hunker down and quit running. But, hey if you wanna run, go to it.

Toss in that if the Russians begin to focus everything in a smaller area (versus being spread out all over NE Ukraine and around Kyiv, it'll be somewhat easier for the Ukrainians to take stuff out - hunter/killer teams with Javelins, etc., will have an easier time, and Ukraine is getting the Starstreaks which should remove much of the manned Russian CAS aircraft, and they are getting the Switchblades from the US.

And all of those supply trucks that the Ukrainians have already taken out, even though their loss is already being felt, it'll especially be felt going forward in a more traditional slug-fest where the Russians won't be able to keep the artillery/rocket launchers fully supplied.

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9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Toss in that if the Russians begin to focus everything in a smaller area (versus being spread out all over NE Ukraine and around Kyiv, it'll be somewhat easier for the Ukrainians to take stuff out - hunter/killer teams with Javelins, etc., will have an easier time, and Ukraine is getting the Starstreaks which should remove much of the manned Russian CAS aircraft, and they are getting the Switchblades from the US.

And all of those supply trucks that the Ukrainians have already taken out, even though their loss is already being felt, it'll especially be felt going forward in a more traditional slug-fest where the Russians won't be able to keep the artillery/rocket launchers fully supplied.

They really need to figure out a way to wreck the occupied ports. Make it damn near impossible to resupply by sea. Force them to do it by air or land, where those hunter/killer teams with Javelins and MANPADS can fuck them up. 

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Just now, Sbbruin said:

So clearly the west will keep supplying Ukraine with all the equipment they can, but how is it being delivered?  Are the supply routes exposed and susceptible?  Seems like that's where Russia should concentrate their efforts.

Well, the Russians have pulled back from northern and central Ukraine and they never were in Western Ukraine. So, the weapons can be brought in from Poland and Slovakia without too much interference. The depots need to be hidden and hardened though.

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2 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Out of my area of study, but all descriptions indicate that they are in fact quite maneuverable (relative to ballistic missiles) - which is why they are so scary.  The article posted goes into some theoretical details how speeds like that are achieved and how they change directions.

 

I could definitely be wrong, but the kind of lead time and distance to make a course correction at that speed in addition inertia and heat makes me dubious of anything approaching maneuverability. ICBM’s can essentially travel down the interstate and hit gas stations on either side, but their footprint is pretty much restricted to the service roads if you follow that analogy. Does maneuverable mean hitting a block deep off of that into neighborhoods or simply making 500 mile wide turns at different points along the flight path to make them less predictable?

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21 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Need a project map out overlay what sanctions are in place and what else in available.  Getting complicated.  

They are still just getting the previous sanctions going - US just had a $120 million yacht seized for the first time (rather it's the first yacht/asset seized from an oligarch).

https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/news/the-120-million-tango-is-reportedly-the-first-superyacht-owned-by-a-russian-oligarch-to-be-seized-by-the-us/articleshow/90647683.cms

 

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Bullets in a grandma bag hidden in the coop
From comments

S: Here, friends, we are in the recently liberated Peremoha ("Victory"), and obviously the locals are happily welcoming us, and here this one woman comes to us and says "boys, let's go, especially for you I snatched a zinc of ammo from invaders. We don't know what kind of ammo, but I snatched it, they could've shot us with it but I stole it for our army". So here, see, right in the hiding place...

W: These are not all!

S: Ohh, what have we here, 25.8s? 25.8s! Alright, record this.

W: And here... Vova, can you help me take it out? There's some more, I shoved them all in there.

S2: We'll help.

W: I throwed them in there.

S: Wonderful.

W: They're all brand new.

S2: I see, I see, I see, I see.

S: Well, as you can see, the partisan movement cannot be stopped, because the partisan movement is all Ukrainians. And that's how we're winning. Glory to Ukraine.

S2: Glory to the heroes.


This is the second Ukrainian dude with what to hunters stateside we might call a “get r dun” Turkey hunting setup (the foam pad fastened to his gear covering his butt). Very handy when sitting for long periods awaiting your quarry, especially on cold ground.

The Ukrainians are all in; from the high speed guys down to the “good ole boys” and I fucking dig it.



035f4397b9421ee1b59e6f6a7a905deb.png
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5 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Mach 20.....and apparently manueverable.

Scary stuff

And from everyone's bastion of truth:  wiki.  They're coming.  I don't know how exactly, but they are on their way.  

The AGM-183 ARRW ("Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon") is a hypersonic weapon planned for use by the United States Air Force. Developed by Lockheed Martin, the boost glide weapon is propelled to a maximum speed of more than Mach 20 by a missile before gliding towards its targe

So it goes extremely fast then slows down to hit the target? Like an aerial version of this?

 

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46 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Under the heading of tanks on Oryx

captured: 176

Didn't they start off with 70 or so?

How effective would these captured tanks be against the entrenched Russian forces in the East? Is it better to leave the tanks with the farmers and use the weapons provided by NATO?

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18 minutes ago, statsman said:

Speaking of war crimes, I intend to make a post about (great army soldier, and not near the legend he should be) Hugh Thompson on his birthday (April 15). Help me remember. 

For some reason I read this as Hunter S. Thompson who actually did serve but I don't think he was a "great" soldier.

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12 minutes ago, Bevo said:

How effective would these captured tanks be against the entrenched Russian forces in the East? Is it better to leave the tanks with the farmers and use the weapons provided by NATO?

They still have a use when used properly.

In Ukraine, this imbalance is most evident in dramatic videos of Russian T-80 and T-72 tanks fighting alone in cities—and often catching a missile from hidden Ukrainian troops. Those missileers have a clear shot, and the tankers have no idea they’re there, because too few infantry—or no infantry—are accompanying the tanks.

“Russia's disastrous tactics have been a terrible advertisement for tanks,” tweeted Nicholas Drummond, an armor consultant. “But we should be careful to avoid drawing the wrong conclusions,” he added. “No artillery support. No infantry support. No air support. This is not how combined-arms tactics work in an era of multi-domain operations.”

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Vice has an inside look at one of the pro-Russian propaganda groups and how they are spreading stuff around.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/7kbjny/russia-cyber-front-z-telegram

Yeah, there was social media (eventually) during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and it was definitely around for Libya, Syria, Crimea, etc.

But Ukraine really does feel like the first large-scale war fought after social media has fully matured/been integrated in our lives/society (helped by everybody having smartphones).  I've seen plenty of friends/acquaintances/relatives passing around the Bucha stuff or getting into their views on other pro-Ukrainian stuff, that in the past would merely change their profile picture to a photo of them overlaid with a translucent flag of whatever country was having problems (like the 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris).

It's just become so easy to pass this stuff around now with just a click or two, and so many people have decent smartphones with decent connections, and are so comfortable with it, that it seems noticeably different.

I have also seen some Russian propaganda passed around by people I know (and some of it is just them not being adept at how the internet works), but surprisingly it seems to get shot down by other posters/followers/friends/whatever.

Edit: It is helped by there being two very clearly-defined sides in a clearly-defined action that everybody understands, even if they couldn't have placed Ukraine on a map two months ago, and Zelenskyy is a huge contrast to Putin.  Also, plenty of the olds remember the KGB.

Still, this is going to be the norm going forward (organized propaganda), at least with larger nations who have a technically-capable population.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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44 minutes ago, Bevo said:

How effective would these captured tanks be against the entrenched Russian forces in the East? Is it better to leave the tanks with the farmers and use the weapons provided by NATO?

My understanding is that the captured tanks are largely identical to tanks in the Ukrainian inventory, so many of them are interchangeable.  Hopefully the Ukrainians have also captured plenty of ammo for the captured tanks.  I would also assume that the NATO countries that still roll T-72s have production lines set up for the correct ammo, especially the Czech Republic.  Diesel is diesel, so the fuel is available.

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19 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

My understanding is that the captured tanks are largely identical to tanks in the Ukrainian inventory, so many of them are interchangeable.  Hopefully the Ukrainians have also captured plenty of ammo for the captured tanks.  I would also assume that the NATO countries that still roll T-72s have production lines set up for the correct ammo, especially the Czech Republic.  Diesel is diesel, so the fuel is available.

My question is what about crews? 

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My concern about this shifting to a more conventional frontal slog in Donbas is threefold:

The Russians have plenty of arty, etc. with enough range to wreak havoc.   Those kinds of weapons systems aren't going to be taken out by Javelins, Starstreaks or Stingers.   Do the Ukrainians have acceptable counter-battery abilities?   Can they effect any kind of reasonable air attack efforts on those weapons?  I don't have any idea on their counter-battery ability and I think the answer is no on the second.  

2.  Are the Russians planning on just letting this turn into a stalemate at the current points on the map and wear the Ukrainians down to giving up what they don't control?   How long would it take for Ukraine to accept that?  Keeping an army in the field indefinitely is damn near impossible.  And Putin might be perfectly happy to make them do that.

3.  If the Russians are ready for real bloodshed, can the Ukrainians sustain their forces in the field and withstand the attack long enough to inflict sufficient casualties to cause the Russians to stand down or give up?

That's kind of an obvious question and the events of the last 5 weeks point toward "Maybe...?"

But we can't kid ourselves that a Russian attack in the Donbas area isn't going to be bloody.

 

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1 minute ago, Macanudo said:

One would assume that the Ukrainians have some reservists with training.   If worst comes to worst they can always just be turned into static pillboxes or artillery platforms.

Yeah, was thinking that, but armor should move. If it is just sitting then easy to be knocked out. 

 

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Just now, InkaUtexas said:

My question is what about crews? 

I read that Ukraine has a net gain in tanks, but they had lost around 40 or 50 at the time that I read it.  I may be wrong, but I assume that not all of those crews were KIA or WIA.  In a pinch, crews can train up pretty quickly.  Soviet tanks were designed to allow for minimal training, a lesson from WWII.

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1 minute ago, Scheiss Meister said:

I read that Ukraine has a net gain in tanks, but they had lost around 40 or 50 at the time that I read it.  I may be wrong, but I assume that not all of those crews were KIA or WIA.  In a pinch, crews can train up pretty quickly.  Soviet tanks were designed to allow for minimal training, a lesson from WWII.

Plus, Ukrainians crews actually want to be there. 

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8 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

I read that Ukraine has a net gain in tanks, but they had lost around 40 or 50 at the time that I read it.  I may be wrong, but I assume that not all of those crews were KIA or WIA.  In a pinch, crews can train up pretty quickly.  Soviet tanks were designed to allow for minimal training, a lesson from WWII.

I think they lost a bunch in the beginning of the war around Mariupol. They got encircled in the initial surge. I probably read about it on a link from this thread. Unfortunately, whatever I read is buried now and I can't recall all the details.

Edited by Bevo
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4 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I think they lost a bunch in the beginning of the war around Mariupol. They got encircled in the initial surge. I probably read about it on a link from this thread. Unfortunately, whatever I read is buried now.

Speaking of Mariupol, I've wondered about a couple of things.

What do the Ukrainians have planned for relieving pressure/breaking the seige or can they even do that?

Does going on the offensive there endanger them in Donbas or hurt their defense of Odesa?

How are the forces in Mariupol being supplied?  Or are they?

Edited by Macanudo
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The world is a bunch of pussies just sitting by letting this happen. 

There is some of that, but there is also a very compelling strategic argument to letting Putin keep digging the hole he’s in deeper and deeper. If NATO, et al play everything right, maybe Putin goes away and Russian politics gets a much needed reset. Maybe then we don’t have more Grozny’s, Aleppo’s, and Ukraine’s. The only way this shit ends long term is with a political reset over there, with freedom of the press as order #1.

It sucks for the Ukrainians but they should have got their shit in order and aligned with the EU and NATO earlier. This is the biggest cautionary tale in awhile highlighting the fact that you’re either in NATO, or you may be fair game for the Putin’s of the future.
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1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

My question is what about crews? 

A country full of farmers/farm kids that have operated heavy machinery since they were able to? A 50 year old platform is a very short learning curve measured in hours. Tanks are just a funky tractor.

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
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