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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


Eastwood

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A "gesture of goodwill" that is currently relevant is the Antonivsky bridge. A gesture that says: 🇷🇺 it's time for the troops to voluntarily leave Kherson. Otherwise - constant cotton, night terrors, panic attacks and, as a result, "HIMARS-enuresis". The circle of possibilities becomes narrower, as does the accuracy of fire 🇺🇦 of the artillery.

 

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3 hours ago, MillerEP said:
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Another major offensive.  With whatever shitty mechanized equipment they have left.  Early next year.  Running right into the teeth of mud season.

Okay, Russia.....

If they wanted to build up a bunch of divisions, it could easily take them 5-6 months, which would still put them in the frozen season.

I say 5-6 months, because that would be how long it would take to get out all of those tanks they have in "reserve", and then cannibalize most of them to get a small amount running.  But they'll be running with old T-72s (and older) and not a bunch of fancy comms and anti-air.  And they will have to mobilize all of their reserves and prevent all of the current conscripts from leaving.

It will be even more of a shitshow than what is happening now.

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This will not end well.
From VICE: Someone in Russia appears to be firing a gun from the back of a robot dog.
 
The robot’s feet, various ports, and its front are completely different from Boston Dynamics’ Spot. There’s dozens of knock offs of the Boston Dynamics dog selling on the international market. The one in the video appears to be a UnitreeYusu “technology dog” selling on AliExpress for about $3,000. The feet, port placement, and joint coverings are all the same.
The robot also has strips of Velcro on either of its flanks. The left flank bears a Russian flag and the other appears with a wolf’s head. In another video on the channel, a man wears a similar patch on his arm. It appears to be a wolf’s head insignia commonly associated with Russian Special Operations Forces or Spetsnaz. That doesn’t mean that Spetsnaz is using armed robot dogs, as pretty much anyone can buy a similar patch online in various places.
The gun is also Russian. It appears to be a PP-19 Vityaz, a submachine gun based on the AK-74 design. As the dog wanders around and fires, it sometimes moves in front of an armored personnel carrier with a unique triangular door. That’s a BDRM-2, a Russian armored car that’s been spotted recently in Ukraine.
Finally, there’s the account the video originally appeared on. Before making its way to Twitter, the video of the dog was posted to the YouTube account of Alexander Atamov on March 22, 2022. Atamov is listed on his LinkedIn profile as the founder of “HOVERSURF” and his Facebook page lists him as living in Moscow. He posted a picture of the robot dog on March 21. According to Facebook’s translation of his post, he called the dog “Skynet.”
 
 

I can sell y’all the authentic BD spot with an onboard Red Hat Linux server and IBM Watson AI software, but I’m pretty sure I’d get fired if I added the weaponry and tried to export. It’ll handle about 70 lb in payload, btw.

Unless someone just wants to keep it at their ranch here in TX as a conversation piece.
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Don't think this one has been posted yet. This is the type of conviction we need to see this through.

Also wish the Western leaders would do some analysis of the overall economic impact of this war and the contrast between any type of Russian victories vs Ukrainian victories vs pre war status quo. Ideally numbers would indicate how destructive and costly any war can be, especially this one which can have multiple significant domino effects with food security and energy costs.

Various Russian win scenarios could see some short term economic stability but long term what are the actual costs for tying to much European energy needs to a regime that has no shame exploiting any type of advantage? Plus now we would have to factor in additional security costs with the return of the cold war. Instead of being content with making bank as a major petro state, siphoning off billions to fund the various yacht clubs, Putin's ego couldn't stand a "diminished" Russia and started a war based upon greed and power.

Compare to Ukrainian win scenarios, where yes, there would be some huge rebuilding costs but the long term implications could be big if they retain their O&G and mineral rights. Given some time as well as non-interference by Russia, the Ukrainians could eventually help fill part of that role of energy provider for the rest of the Europe without those risks of being tied to a totalitarian state pushing a 19th century imperialistic ideology.

I know that not everyone is as morally convinced as Stoltenberg or as most of us on this thread but illustrating the long term economic costs could help sway others to stay firm.

 

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tl;dr - Ukrainian attacks in the Kherson region have put the Russians in a very bad spot. They have had to move supplies out of GMLRS range and then the Ukrainians did enough damage to only bridges for resupply that Russia cannot bring in more ordinance in any quantity.

Russian troops in Kherson are now trapped. 

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29 minutes ago, Nivek said:

When Ukraine receives the additional support could they possibly strike the oil fields in the Russian Caucasus region or any transport ships?

They aren't attacking any Russian territory unless Russia is launching attacks from that location.

Ukraine has already been attacking the Russian navy. 

One misconception I'm seeding is that the US said for Ukraine not to "attack Russia directly". That's not entirely accurate - they can use GMLRS attacks on Russian positions in Russia if Russia is attacking Ukraine from there. 

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^This is true, we still occasionally see strikes ion Belgorod and Kursk, which means they are hitting Russian territory, but only where the Russians have bases and support groups. The opposite is also true, we see Russians now sitting comfortably in Russia lobbing IDF into Ukrainian cities, that's been going on a lot recently in Kharkiv.

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Regarding the Istanbul agreement "on the export of 🇺🇦 grain". Previously.

 1. Ukraine does not sign any documents with Russia. We sign an agreement with Turkey and the UN and undertake obligations to them. Russia signs a mirror agreement with Turkey and the UN. 1/2

2. No escorting of transport by Russian ships and the presence 🇷🇺 of representatives in our ports. In case of provocations, an immediate military response.

 3. All inspections of transport ships will be carried out by joint teams in 🇹🇷 waters should the need arise. 2/2

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