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4 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

If we beat them too soon, they will withdraw and continue being Russia.

This just isn't true. Russia may continue being Russia but it won't be because we provided the means to end the war too soon. We are way beyond the point of withholding weapons out of fear.

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What I had been saying is that Russia is increasingly running into a problem with no easy solutions. Within about the last 24 hours I have seen the Kerch Bridge hit along with a guy getting arrested for showing that Russian missiles still can't intercept NATO supplied LO cruise missiles. I think Russian radars are getting glimpses, but that the Storm Shadow / Scalp is just too fast and low for the defenses to engage. In addition, I have seen a convoy wrecked by tungsten berries, Ukrainians driving past dragon teeth, read reports and seen the artillery strike on Russians retreating from Urozhaine. Saw reports of another successful mission to cross the Dnipro and more than a few ammo dumps going up. Its these types of things that have put Russia in a pickle. First, the land routes in the South are likely struggling to move troops and supplies and having to support Crimea as well is likely causing all sorts of issues from traffic jams, fuel shortages to potholes. Disrupted logistical lines are a major problem in war. From IED attacks in Iraq to the massive effort required to keep the Red Ball express rolling just to deliver "not enough" supplies to the allies by September 1944. Of course, modern trucks can carry more, but the Russian's likely need more trucks because the frontage is so spread out. With Ukraine actively hunting depots and convoys pressing up against the massive material demands of combat shortage is likely the name of the game. So why is Russia pushing near Kupiansk? With such a massive threat in the South, why make a play North? I think it part it is the logistics problems. The Russians have a much easier time of it in the North. This allows them to gather and sustain combat power. Plus, operations in the north offer two tantalizing prospects if gains can be made. First is the political. Russia's war has been a failure. No matter how Russia or her cheerleaders try to spin it; Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa are in Ukrainian hands. For all the talk about Crimea or the Donbas, Kharkiv is the only real prize that is even within spitting distance of achievable. Russia already had part of the Donbas and all of Crimea thanks to the war in 14-15. What she doesn't have is any major city gained in this war. The initial goal was to move Russia to Romanian border and annex Transnistria. Seize Kyiv and Kharkiv and then the rest of the Donbas and Southern Ukraine would fall. What would have been left is a Western Ukrainian rump state centered on Lviv. Doubt me? Rewind the tape to last year and how long it took Russia to make any serious moves into the JFO area. The battles for Sievierodonetsk and Bakhmut wrecked the Russian Army. That area had been built up for the fight Ukraine's victory elsewhere forced Russia to fight. Taking Kharkiv before Russia totally runs out of juice is likely very appealing to Putin who wants something no matter the cost. Secondly, a breakthrough that threatened Kharkiv might force Ukraine to suspend operations in the South. No one doubts that is Kharkiv was seriously threatened its defense would become the big effort for the Ukrainian military. Now here is the crux. Conventional wisdom among the Ukraine supporting side of things is the AFU has plenty of troops to defend Kupiansk/Kharkiv and conduct the counter offensive. That may well be true, but however well founded its speculation. More importantly, we don't know what the Russian read of Ukrainian strength is. We do know Russia efforts in the South are in trouble. The fight around Bakhmut is a side show. Niether side is going to be able to go hell bent for leather. Bakhmut only leads to another fortified concrete hell. The only place where Russia can act to try and take pressure off the South and (maybe) achieve a victory is in the North. Keep your eyes on it, the North will be the big tell. As soon as Russian pressure there fades, we know Russia has given up on winning a victory and may be getting ready to concede Zaporizhya and Southern Kherson Oblasts. That will be a very hard choice for Putin to make and the longer he delays it the less oomph Russia will have left for other evil deeds. Of course none of this comes free to Ukraine. They have to pay for it in blood. No doubt Russia hopes that Ukraine will run out of gas first. She is pouring a lot of effort into tankies, trolls, bots and shills to sway public opinion. If the flow of aid gets cut off, Ukraine could still lose. Thats where the #NAFO #Fellas come in. I know I generally push bonking, advocacy and giving. That hasn't changed. But I think we need more people willing to do outreach. If you are reasonably sure the person you are dealing with is real, persuadable (or thier audience might be) and or honest if ignorant. It might be worthwhile to see if you can move them from the opposes aid to Ukraine camp. In this fight there are two spaces that help Ukraine and one that hurts the effort (supports aid, neutral, opposes aid). So, we have an advantage in that we win with 2 of the three possible outcomes. Now if its an old school tankie, troll or bot well nothing changes, break out the bonk sticks and get to work. I'm just sayign as we head towards an elections eason look for ways to win allies or at least get people to stop equating Ukraine Aid as a negative or partisan only political point. Also, as part of that fight keep pressuring your elected leaders. I call, write and participate in (virtual) townhalls. I also tag

@JohnBoozman

,

@TomCottonAR

,

@RepFrenchHill

every single day for about a year and a half. I tell them to send more, better and now to Ukraine and to push

@POTUS

to make #RussiaIsATerroristState official US policy because #UkraineMustWin. Then finally, I take it one step further. I put my own money on the line. Money is volunteering. Every dollar I send required me to work to earn it. That like this writing is time out of my life that I free will give to Ukraine. Now I don't know how much Ukraine values my essays, but I know they value my dollars. Yours as well. Euros, dollars, pounds... All easily convertible labor to needed resource on the other end. IFAKS, drones, chest plates and chest seals. Generators and meals our donations do our volunteer work for us. If you feel like donating, I keep a small donation destination list here: https://twitter.com/JBelcourt73/status/1684180944712880128?s=20… Regardless of how you support Ukraine, remember the goal is to Stand With Ukraine Until Ukraine Wins On Ukraine's Terms: Slava Ukrainii!

@mfa_russia

<--- still losing 24/7/365 you can't take the North and can't hold the South, so what will Putin choose? Whichever way, your sons die because he won't choose peace.

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43 minutes ago, The Dog said:

What I had been saying is that Russia is increasingly running into a problem with no easy solutions. Within about the last 24 hours I have seen the Kerch Bridge hit along with a guy getting arrested for showing that Russian missiles still can't intercept NATO supplied LO cruise missiles. I think Russian radars are getting glimpses, but that the Storm Shadow / Scalp is just too fast and low for the defenses to engage. In addition, I have seen a convoy wrecked by tungsten berries, Ukrainians driving past dragon teeth, read reports and seen the artillery strike on Russians retreating from Urozhaine. Saw reports of another successful mission to cross the Dnipro and more than a few ammo dumps going up. Its these types of things that have put Russia in a pickle. First, the land routes in the South are likely struggling to move troops and supplies and having to support Crimea as well is likely causing all sorts of issues from traffic jams, fuel shortages to potholes. Disrupted logistical lines are a major problem in war. From IED attacks in Iraq to the massive effort required to keep the Red Ball express rolling just to deliver "not enough" supplies to the allies by September 1944. Of course, modern trucks can carry more, but the Russian's likely need more trucks because the frontage is so spread out. With Ukraine actively hunting depots and convoys pressing up against the massive material demands of combat shortage is likely the name of the game. So why is Russia pushing near Kupiansk? With such a massive threat in the South, why make a play North? I think it part it is the logistics problems. The Russians have a much easier time of it in the North. This allows them to gather and sustain combat power. Plus, operations in the north offer two tantalizing prospects if gains can be made. First is the political. Russia's war has been a failure. No matter how Russia or her cheerleaders try to spin it; Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa are in Ukrainian hands. For all the talk about Crimea or the Donbas, Kharkiv is the only real prize that is even within spitting distance of achievable. Russia already had part of the Donbas and all of Crimea thanks to the war in 14-15. What she doesn't have is any major city gained in this war. The initial goal was to move Russia to Romanian border and annex Transnistria. Seize Kyiv and Kharkiv and then the rest of the Donbas and Southern Ukraine would fall. What would have been left is a Western Ukrainian rump state centered on Lviv. Doubt me? Rewind the tape to last year and how long it took Russia to make any serious moves into the JFO area. The battles for Sievierodonetsk and Bakhmut wrecked the Russian Army. That area had been built up for the fight Ukraine's victory elsewhere forced Russia to fight. Taking Kharkiv before Russia totally runs out of juice is likely very appealing to Putin who wants something no matter the cost. Secondly, a breakthrough that threatened Kharkiv might force Ukraine to suspend operations in the South. No one doubts that is Kharkiv was seriously threatened its defense would become the big effort for the Ukrainian military. Now here is the crux. Conventional wisdom among the Ukraine supporting side of things is the AFU has plenty of troops to defend Kupiansk/Kharkiv and conduct the counter offensive. That may well be true, but however well founded its speculation. More importantly, we don't know what the Russian read of Ukrainian strength is. We do know Russia efforts in the South are in trouble. The fight around Bakhmut is a side show. Niether side is going to be able to go hell bent for leather. Bakhmut only leads to another fortified concrete hell. The only place where Russia can act to try and take pressure off the South and (maybe) achieve a victory is in the North. Keep your eyes on it, the North will be the big tell. As soon as Russian pressure there fades, we know Russia has given up on winning a victory and may be getting ready to concede Zaporizhya and Southern Kherson Oblasts. That will be a very hard choice for Putin to make and the longer he delays it the less oomph Russia will have left for other evil deeds. Of course none of this comes free to Ukraine. They have to pay for it in blood. No doubt Russia hopes that Ukraine will run out of gas first. She is pouring a lot of effort into tankies, trolls, bots and shills to sway public opinion. If the flow of aid gets cut off, Ukraine could still lose. Thats where the #NAFO #Fellas come in. I know I generally push bonking, advocacy and giving. That hasn't changed. But I think we need more people willing to do outreach. If you are reasonably sure the person you are dealing with is real, persuadable (or thier audience might be) and or honest if ignorant. It might be worthwhile to see if you can move them from the opposes aid to Ukraine camp. In this fight there are two spaces that help Ukraine and one that hurts the effort (supports aid, neutral, opposes aid). So, we have an advantage in that we win with 2 of the three possible outcomes. Now if its an old school tankie, troll or bot well nothing changes, break out the bonk sticks and get to work. I'm just sayign as we head towards an elections eason look for ways to win allies or at least get people to stop equating Ukraine Aid as a negative or partisan only political point. Also, as part of that fight keep pressuring your elected leaders. I call, write and participate in (virtual) townhalls. I also tag

@JohnBoozman

,

@TomCottonAR

,

@RepFrenchHill

every single day for about a year and a half. I tell them to send more, better and now to Ukraine and to push

@POTUS

to make #RussiaIsATerroristState official US policy because #UkraineMustWin. Then finally, I take it one step further. I put my own money on the line. Money is volunteering. Every dollar I send required me to work to earn it. That like this writing is time out of my life that I free will give to Ukraine. Now I don't know how much Ukraine values my essays, but I know they value my dollars. Yours as well. Euros, dollars, pounds... All easily convertible labor to needed resource on the other end. IFAKS, drones, chest plates and chest seals. Generators and meals our donations do our volunteer work for us. If you feel like donating, I keep a small donation destination list here: https://twitter.com/JBelcourt73/status/1684180944712880128?s=20… Regardless of how you support Ukraine, remember the goal is to Stand With Ukraine Until Ukraine Wins On Ukraine's Terms: Slava Ukrainii!

@mfa_russia

<--- still losing 24/7/365 you can't take the North and can't hold the South, so what will Putin choose? Whichever way, your sons die because he won't choose peace.

Thanks. At lunch, I’m emailing my “too-Trumpy” congressman that I expect him to support Biden’s request for more funding. 

Edited by statsman
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25 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

“Don’t be partisan” says the guy linking a political op ed with no comment. Cool contribution 

 

Bolton is a former NSA, diplomat, foreign service officer, and DOJ lawyer over six administrations. His opinion counts, regardless of your personal politics. Don't like it? Go cry in the cloakroom, don't derail here.

Edited by MagicSoccerSpray
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Look, you can’t post an op ed article with the literal headline that says “Blame Biden” and then complain it’s political to point out GOP led opposition in Congress to more $$$ and weapons for Ukraine. I’m not the one who made this thread political so take your thread police bullshit elsewhere 

9 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

Bolton is a former NSA, diplomat, foreign service officer, and DOJ lawyer over six administrations. His opinion counts, regardless of your personal politics. Don't like it? Go cry in the cloakroom, don't derail here.

 

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1 hour ago, Bevo said:

This just isn't true. Russia may continue being Russia but it won't be because we provided the means to end the war too soon. We are way beyond the point of withholding weapons out of fear.

if we had magically stockpiled a bunch of modern day NATO weapons in Ukraine, prior to the invasion, and Ukraine used those weapons to destroy Russia’s invasion force and had retaken all the territory by summer, Russia would still be Russia.  A humiliated Russia,  but still Russia.  It would be a Russia with all of the billions that it did not have to spend from July 2022 to now.  it would be a Russia with all of those high tech and young people still in Russia, because close to a million Russians did not flee upon conscription in September. 

if you do not think that bleeding out Russia is a factor (not the only one) in our strategy, then with all due respect, I think you are naïve. 

And not to get too political, but if Biden thinks there’s a chance that Trump will be reelected (or a similar Trumpy Republican), then a slow roll that forces Europe to step up to the plate more  - instead of relying on US largesse - would definitely be in Ukraine’s best interests in the long term. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Look, you can’t post an op ed article with the literal headline that says “Blame Biden” and then complain it’s political to point out GOP led opposition in Congress to more $$$ and weapons for Ukraine. I’m not the one who made this thread political so take your thread police bullshit elsewhere 

 

Except Biden isn't blameless, as has been posted, noticed, and commented on multiple times in this thread, and from both sides of the aisle. You're only upset because it's a Republican who's saying it in the linked article. I specifically didn't comment in the original post to try and forgo partisan sniping, alas you found a way regardless. Want to point out the isolationist streak in the GOP? Go whine here. Otherwise shut the fuck up and stop shitting on this thread.

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21 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

if we had magically stockpiled a bunch of modern day NATO weapons in Ukraine, prior to the invasion, and Ukraine used those weapons to destroy Russia’s invasion force and had retaken all the territory by summer, Russia would still be Russia.  A humiliated Russia,  but still Russia.  It would be a Russia with all of the billions that it did not have to spend from July 2022 to now.  it would be a Russia with all of those high tech and young people still in Russia, because close to a million Russians did not flee upon conscription in September. 

if you do not think that bleeding out Russia is a factor (not the only one) in our strategy, then with all due respect, I think you are naïve. 

And not to get too political, but if Biden thinks there’s a chance that Trump will be reelected (or a similar Trumpy Republican), then a slow roll that forces Europe to step up to the plate more  - instead of relying on US largesse - would definitely be in Ukraine’s best interests in the long term. 

 

The problem with arguing that we're bleeding Russia put is that they'd largely used their prison population and ethnic minorities for the cannon fodder. There's a fine line between slowly bleeding out Russia and pulling a Tom Herman.

Edited by Schulz2.0
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3 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

Except Biden isn't blameless, as has been posted, noticed, and commented on multiple times in this thread, and from both sides of the aisle. You're only upset because it's a Republican who's saying it in the linked article. I specifically didn't comment in the original post to try and forgo partisan sniping, alas you found a way regardless. Want to point out the isolationist streak in the GOP? Go whine here. Otherwise shut the fuck up and stop shitting on this thread.

Where did I say Biden was blameless? Do me a favor, don’t put words in my mouth and don’t take criticism so seriously. I look forward to your next linked article from General Flynn

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5 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The problem with arguing that we're bleeding Russia put is that they'd largely used their prison population and ethnic minorities for the cannon fodder. There's a fine line between slowly bleeding out Russia and pulling a Tom Herman.

yeah, manpower-wise, russia has effectively an infinite amount of bodies. the only bleeding out we can do is materiel, imo.

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Two out of three Boeing 777s of a Russian airline broke down at the same time. WZ-3061 and WZ-3062 airplanes, which were supposed to deliver tourists from Ekaterinburg to Antalya and back, broke down. Two Boeing 777s broke down at the same time, while the airline has only three such aircrafts. Red Wings had to rent an airplane from another company to take the tourists home. Import of spar parts for Boeing airplanes to Russia is prohibited due to sanctions. "And it has only been a year and a half, and then what? Are we going to fly on broomsticks?", - Russians complain.

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7 minutes ago, statsman said:

Yeah, I wonder about that. Wiki page on casually says about 16k total civilians dead, but also has a U.S. estimate of 40k killed Ukrainian civilians (!) 100k seems high. 

yeah, that has to be more hyperbolic doom prognostication than reality.  you'd have to nuke a city to get up to that.

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Back to building the possible bridgehead:

Footage has been released showing strikes upon Russian troops during the successful Ukrainian crossing of the Konka River near Kozachi Laheri.

According to the source half of the Russian company has been eliminated, before hiding in the farm and finally surrendering to Ukrainian forces.  

Coordinates of the Russians hiding in the farm:

46°42'30"N 32°56'47"E

 

POINT: The Motherland is most decidedly not sending her best.

COUNTERPOINT: But maybe she is.

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2 hours ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

I 100% agree with this. Imagine if we started giving/training them on Bradley's, Panzer's, ATACMM's, cluster mutations and F16's a year ago.  We give Russia an entire winter to dig trenches.  Unacceptable. 

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30 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The problem with arguing that we're bleeding Russia put is that they'd largely used their prison population and ethnic minorities for the cannon fodder. There's a fine line between slowly bleeding out Russia and pulling a Tom Herman.

And the ethnic population of the Russian federation is still the population of the Russian federation. And the loss of the men in those minority countries of the Russian federation will still present a very great problem for the Russian Federation going into the future.

I would also argue that all of those criminals, the ones who survive anyway, will be returned to Russian society. We have already seen that that is a problem.

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6 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I 100% agree with this. Imagine if we started giving/training them on Bradley's, Panzer's, ATACMM's, cluster mutations and F16's a year ago.  We give Russia an entire winter to dig trenches.  Unacceptable. 

I absolutely agree that the decision on when we give them the hardware is completely separate from the training that will enable them to use the hardware - whenever we pull the string.  And we should’ve been doing the training earlier.

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7 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

And the ethnic population of the Russian federation is still the population of the Russian federation. And the loss of the men in those minority countries of the Russian federation will still present a very great problem for the Russian Federation going into the future.

I think the important point is the effect on the war: they can be lost without any political blowback in Russia.  They could send a million ethnic minorities to the front lines, lose every one of them, and the powers that be would be fine with it.  The population decline issue you mention is real too, but that timeline is more spread out and not really going to impact on a war-timeline.

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46 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

Except Biden isn't blameless, as has been posted, noticed, and commented on multiple times in this thread, and from both sides of the aisle. You're only upset because it's a Republican who's saying it in the linked article. I specifically didn't comment in the original post to try and forgo partisan sniping, alas you found a way regardless. Want to point out the isolationist streak in the GOP? Go whine here. Otherwise shut the fuck up and stop shitting on this thread.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/republicans-are-turning-against-aid-to-ukraine/

https://ncnewsline.com/briefs/gop-balks-at-white-house-request-for-billions-for-public-health-natural-disasters-ukraine/

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/04/20/republican-lawmakers-to-biden-no-more-unrestrained-aid-to-ukraine/

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39 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Two out of three Boeing 777s of a Russian airline broke down at the same time. WZ-3061 and WZ-3062 airplanes, which were supposed to deliver tourists from Ekaterinburg to Antalya and back, broke down. Two Boeing 777s broke down at the same time, while the airline has only three such aircrafts. Red Wings had to rent an airplane from another company to take the tourists home. Import of spar parts for Boeing airplanes to Russia is prohibited due to sanctions. "And it has only been a year and a half, and then what? Are we going to fly on broomsticks?", - Russians complain.

Are these some of the leased airliners that Russia seized at the SMO beginning? If so, too fucking bad. 

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16 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

And the ethnic population of the Russian federation is still the population of the Russian federation. And the loss of the men in those minority countries of the Russian federation will still present a very great problem for the Russian Federation going into the future.

I would also argue that all of those criminals, the ones who survive anyway, will be returned to Russian society. We have already seen that that is a problem.

Check out the casualties, for Russia, from occupied Ukraine. They’re over 10k, and Russia will never miss them (talk of fighting to the “last Ukrainian”). One of the shittiest things that can happen in this shitty war is to be a Ukrainian man in Donbas, pulled off the street, issued a Russian uniform and sent straightaway to Bakhmut to participate as cannon fodder against UFA. No agency. No chance. 

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I gotta tell ya....I'm worried about the Ukrainian troops our allies are training.  As mentioned in a previous post, one of the boy's college friends is a Ukrainian girl.  She's down south in the UK this summer, working on a base where the UAF are training (she's working as a translator).  She's familiar with the boy's cooking, as it's been one of the ways he likes to show off to bland-palate Europeans.
So, she shared this image of their lunch yesterday at the base, served to the Ukrainians by their Brit hosts.  She shared it to credit him.  He said "fuck that shit, don't pin that on me."

e47ad3674f9e7333ec415508aa938e14.jpg

 
Yes, that's a "taco."  And yes, those are green peas on it.  WTF, England?  Haven't the Ukrainian people been subjected to enough crimes against humanity?

At least the Brits are trying. They're just lucky it wasn't this:

sub-buzz-86-1582910592-8.jpg?downsize=600:*&output-format=auto&output-quality=auto 

or this

sub-buzz-86-1582910312-7.jpg?downsize=700%3A%2A&output-quality=auto&output-format=auto

Edited by Dahobbs
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34 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

And the ethnic population of the Russian federation is still the population of the Russian federation. And the loss of the men in those minority countries of the Russian federation will still present a very great problem for the Russian Federation going into the future.

I would also argue that all of those criminals, the ones who survive anyway, will be returned to Russian society. We have already seen that that is a problem.

Some of the ethnic minorities pressed into service are citizens of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, etc working in Russia.

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22 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Some of the ethnic minorities pressed into service are citizens of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, etc working in Russia.

You made a real good point, and it’s absolutely true that the folks in St. Petersburg and Moscow are missing all the fun. I was just saying that the Russian racist demographic fuckery does not mean that the fact most of the troops are not from Moscow eliminates the problems that will arise because those minorities died in military service.  In the days to come, I think that those angry minorities will very much contribute to Russia’s “finding out” fun. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

You made a real good point, and it’s absolutely true that the folks in St. Petersburg and Moscow are missing all the fun. I was just saying that the Russian racist demographic fuckery does not mean that the fact most of the troops are not from Moscow eliminates the problems that will arise because those minorities died in military service.  In the days to come, I think that those angry minorities will very much contribute to Russia’s “finding out” fun. 

 

Can you imagine if we conscripted Mexicans and Canadians to go fight in Vietnam or Afghanistan under the aegis of "Well, we're all 'Americans' so you get to fight his war we chose to get into.  Because fuck you, that's why."?  What happens to the bully when everyone in the neighborhood gets together to go off on them?  

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