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2018 - Elections and Trends

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11 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

If you look at that graph, the tide turns almost instantly after Trump brought on Rudy and they started ramping up the public criticism of the Russia investigation.

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As someone who has never voted for a Democrat for statewide or national office, I felt a lot better about things when I was convinced the GOP was going to get wiped out in the midterms and Trump would be soundly defeated in 2020.  Trumpism being here to stay is still hard to swallow.

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Just now, longhornmatt said:

As someone who has never voted for a Democrat for statewide or national office, I felt a lot better about things when I was convinced the GOP was going to get wiped out in the midterms and Trump would be soundly defeated in 2020.  Trumpism being here to stay is still hard to swallow.

Don't worry. They're still going to get wiped out in the midterms.

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If you look at that graph, the tide turns almost instantly after Trump brought on Rudy and they started ramping up the public criticism of the Russia investigation.

Enemies have used propaganda and disinformation a billion times over the millennia for one reason: because they work.

Enemies of the republic are waging a disinformation campaign, they are winning, and they are going to win.
As someone who has never voted for a Democrat for statewide or national office, I felt a lot better about things when I was convinced the GOP was going to get wiped out in the midterms and Trump would be soundly defeated in 2020.  Trumpism being here to stay is still hard to swallow.


Sounds like some of y’all are coming around to the glaringly obvious: rhis country is toast.

Sit down, pour yourself a scotch. We’ve been waiting for you.

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I wonder how much of that is related to primary/post-primary angst.  I'd curious to see if margins tend to squeeze after the primary cycle in other years.

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A possible explanation on such a dramatic swing in the Reuters poll was a huge dropoff in % of survey respondents that self-reported voting for Clinton in 2016:

The top-line result for the week ending 5/12 was D+4, and the respondent ratio was 40.6% Clinton/45.0% Trump.

Week ending 5/20 was 33.9% Clinton /47.1% Trump.

Not a single previous Reuters generic poll had a survey less than 40% Clinton. This week's poll also only had 1,022 respondents total, which is anywhere from 500-2000 less than usual.

DATA: http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/AB7_2016/type/week/dates/20180101-20180522/collapsed/false

 

 

Edited by Storm the Field

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1 minute ago, Storm the Field said:

A possible explanation on such a dramatic swing in the Reuters poll was a huge dropoff in % of survey respondents that self-reported voting for Clinton in 2016:

The top-line result for the week ending 5/12 was D+4, and the respondent ratio was 40.6% Clinton/45.0% Trump.

Week ending 5/20 was 33.9% Clinton /47.1% Trump.

Not a single previous Reuters generic poll had a survey less than 40% Clinton. This week's poll also only had 1,022 respondents total, which is anywhere from 500-2000 less than usual.

DATA: http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/AB7_2016/type/week/dates/20180101-20180522/collapsed/false

That's a big spread.

 

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2 hours ago, Tuco said:

I wonder how much of that is related to primary/post-primary angst.  I'd curious to see if margins tend to squeeze after the primary cycle in other years.

I also wonder if much of the country has "outrage fatigue."  Trump does so much stupid shit that it's almost impossible to stay in a state of perpetual outrage; at some point, you just become a nihilist.

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Valdez is gonna pull this one out, isn't she?  Her campaign is (was?) so disorganized. 

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Valdez is gonna pull this one out, isn't she?  Her campaign is (was?) so disorganized. 
I think you're probably right. While neither candidate is remotely qualified, White actually seems to have a stronger grasp of policy. An argument could be made that he'd be more competitive as a moderate, but others could argue she'd be better positioned to energize the progressive base.

One I'm happy about is that Kopser is ahead in TX-21, which is my district.

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6 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


Enemies have used propaganda and disinformation a billion times over the millennia for one reason: because they work.

Enemies of the republic are waging a disinformation campaign, they are winning, and they are going to win.


Sounds like some of y’all are coming around to the glaringly obvious: rhis country is toast.

Sit down, pour yourself a scotch. We’ve been waiting for you.

If you are pouring, make it a good portion over here. And chew on this while you decide where they dug the peat. 

It's a long fucking way to November. You think that I am going to sit home and cry in my drink? Did you even bother to read about Ojeda of WV? 

she lost because she was a shit campaigner and listened to the same fools in her pride that lost her the race against Obama. 

keep your stick on the ice and get in the game

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12 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Well, I hope she makes him sweat a little.

She’s a Hispanic lesbian cop, who served in the US Army, who also worked for the Border Patrol and worked as an undercover federal agent to bust drug gangs, among other jobs. 

Abbott will have to tread carefully in the debates. 

He will still probably win, but it will be entertaining to watch his supporters fuck up. 

Edited by atomheartbevo

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She’s a Hispanic lesbian cop, who served in the US Army, who also worked for the Border Patrol and worked as an undercover federal agent to bust drug gangs, among other jobs. 
Abbott will have to tread carefully in the debates. 
He will still probably win, but it will be entertaining to watch his supporters fuck up. 

She’s going to get CRUSHED. White would have lost, but she’s gonna get crushed.

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For the various congressional seats in Texas, it looks like the Democrats got the winners that the national party wanted.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


She’s going to get CRUSHED. White would have lost, but she’s gonna get crushed.

With Beto O'Rourke headlining I think all the statewide races will be closer than we are used to. Patrick and Miller could be in very tight races. I still think Abbott wins but it could be single digits.

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5 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Laura Moser gettin' whipped.

I just talked to her the other night. I think she is relieved to be out of politics. It ain't no place for a woman like her. 

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7 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


She’s going to get CRUSHED. White would have lost, but she’s gonna get crushed.

White probably would have lost, but I think he would've had a much better chance.

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9 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


She’s going to get CRUSHED. White would have lost, but she’s gonna get crushed.

Yeah, Abbott is going to roll

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Beto can win but it’s a tough battle, I’m afraid Lupe will be throttled. Even with democratic tailwinds it could be one of the largest margins of victory for republicans in the governors race in quite some time unless She’s able to ride Beto’s momentum. Abbott can do a lot to make it worse for her, like moderate his positions on gays and guns (maybe mostly with silence on gays and meaningless town halls on guns) and the suburban educated women who hate the white male politicians on those issues will say “he’s not so bad” and then they vote R or stay home. She’s got zero chance.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, troph said:

Beto can win but it’s a tough battle, I’m afraid Lupe will be throttled. Even with democratic tailwinds it could be one of the largest margins of victory for republicans in the governors race in quite some time unless She’s able to ride Beto’s momentum. Abbott can do a lot to make it worse for her, like moderate his positions on gays and guns (maybe mostly with silence on gays and meaningless town halls on guns) and the suburban educated women who hate the white male politicians on those issues will say “he’s not so bad” and then they vote R or stay home. She’s got zero chance.

 

 

Abbott can't afford to moderate on anything with the Patrick wing of the party nipping at his heels, even in a general election.

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11 hours ago, bolverk said:

others could argue she'd be better positioned to energize the progressive base.

Neither one of them does a thing to excite me. I guess I liked White better than Valdez, but both are really just a giant snoozefest to me.

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49 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

If she changed her name to Lupe Tortilla, she would have a better chance.

 

1 minute ago, tantric superman said:

Gonna be a Lupe Fiasco.

I approve of both of these posts.

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Abbott can't afford to moderate on anything with the Patrick wing of the party nipping at his heels, even in a general election.


I contend his round tables on guns is exactly that - meaningless moderation. It will work some. He has moderated on gays. Behind closed doors he did not support the bathroom bill for example.

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The glorious Ted Lieu, who is easily one of the top 5 dumbest D(s) in Washington.

 

Edited by HtownHorn

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With apologies to Congressman Lieu, I'll go by what history tells us, and history tells us November is going to be rough for Republicans.

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Leader of the Democrats. comments and like/dislike ratio disabled...

Brilliant ending, "calling people (MS-13) animals, is not a good thing." Yeah we should really stop talking bad about those ruthless drug cartels who torture people. 

I've heard that taking food out of babies mouths line before too...where have I.. oh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aODWcHpEjbc

 

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Unlike Ryan and McConnell, she actually knows how to wield a majority effectively. 

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1 minute ago, kevwun said:

Unlike Ryan and McConnell, she actually knows how to wield a majority effectively. 

She's a fantastic leader.

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Very excited about this election. If things come up straight Ds, we can basically close the chapter on Trump.  It won’t matter if he’s impeached or not.  2 years of running out the clock.  The damage he’s done to our country will effectively be over.  

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The Democrats finally got off their dead asses and starting recruiting people for races down ballot.  I was stunned how many races nationwide had no Democrat running.  Evidently, 50% of all state ledge seats in Tennessee didn't even have a Democrat running:

 

Democrats are quietly fighting their biggest political battle in a decade for state legislative races as they aim to flip control of up to a dozen chambers.

The effort could position the party to play a bigger role in redrawing U.S. House districts after the 2020 census and could help boost turnout for candidates running statewide races this year.

Democrats control just 32 of 99 legislative chambers—down from 60 before the 2010 midterm elections. Republicans won 958 state legislative seats from Democrats—of a total of roughly 7,300—during the Obama administration.

The GOP advantage in some states is so big that the Democrats’ goal is simply to dilute a supermajority in a state chamber, rather than flip control.

Borrowing a playbook Republicans used during the 2010 tea party-powered GOP wave, Democratic groups are preparing to spend more money on state legislative contests than they have in the last four election years combined.

Democrats are on track to have more general election candidates than Republicans are for the first time this decade, and there are early signs of progress.

In January, after Democrat Patty Schachtner won a Wisconsin state senate seat by 9 percentage points in a district President Donald Trump carried by 17 points, GOP Gov. Scott Walker warned the contest was “a wake-up call for Republicans in Wisconsin.”

Even a small Democratic advantage in November could produce big changes in state capitols. Democrats would retake control of seven state senate chambers by flipping just 13 seats. In three other state house chambers, the GOP advantage is 10 seats or less.

There is some evidence of down-ballot candidates helping officials running for statewide office.

Last November, officials from the Analyst Group, a research organization, concluded that in Virginia’s 2017 election, Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam’s campaign saw an increase of about 550 votes in those GOP-held House of Delegates districts with a Democratic candidate on the ballot.

That difference boosted Mr. Northam’s vote total by about 1.5% per district in a race he won by nine percentage points, the research found.  His margin of victory was the largest for a Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate since 1985.

The newly elected Democrats in Virginia have the state on the verge of expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, action largely attributed to the ouster of 15 state House Republicans last year.

“Flooding the zone is an essential part of our strategy for success,” said Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez. “When you’re fielding dynamite candidates in these down-ballot races you help everyone else who is on the ballot.”

A Wall Street Journal analysis of campaign data shows that in states where the filing deadlines have passed, Democrats are contesting 87% of state legislative seats—a figure on pace to be about 600, or 13%, more than in the 2014 midterm elections.

In five Trump states with Senate races this year—Indiana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Texas—Democrats have recruited general election candidates for least 25% more state legislative seats than they did in 2014.

The new attention and resources echo the emphasis Republicans put on state house races in 2010 after President Barack Obama’s election shepherded historic Democratic gains in local elections.

Since Mr. Trump’s 2016 victory, Democrats have flipped 41 state legislative seats—including the 15 in Virginia’s 2017 elections and several in districts Mr. Trump carried by substantial margins.

Until 2016, the only national group dedicated to electing state legislative Democrats was the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. The DLCC operated with a meager budget—$11 million during the 2010 GOP wave, $13 million in 2012, $17 million in 2014 and $18 million in 2016.

By comparison, in 2010, the Republican State Leadership Committee increased its spending on state races from $18 million in 2008 to $30 million. The GOP that year flipped control of 20 legislative chambers while winning 701 state legislative seats away from Democrats.

The DLCC plans to spend about $35 million in 2018, said Executive Director Jessica Post, subsidizing state-level staff members who focus on basic tasks such as recruiting candidates and building campaign websites.

In early 2017, former Attorney General Eric Holder launched the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, which will spend an additional $35 million on campaigns and litigation in states where it targets control of drawing legislative boundaries after the 2020 census. Forward Majority, a super PAC started last September by former Obama aides, plans to spend up to $20 million on opposition research on incumbent Republicans, which it intends to use in negative advertising against as many as 200 state lawmakers.

The DNC is also assisting local candidates, following a model it used in the 2017 Virginia elections when the party dispatched a videographer from Washington to record advertisements that House of Delegates candidates used online.

Republicans are expressing alarm about the constellation of Democratic groups pouring resources into state legislative races.

The RSLC warned donors and state-level GOP officials last monththat Mr. Holder’s group “has mirrored” the 2010 GOP effort, known as REDMAP, which Republicans credited with securing 20 to 25 new congressional seats in the redistricting that followed the 2010 census.

“They have built on the model of the RSLC’s model in 2010 and hyper-charged it,” said RSLC President Matt Walter. “We’re going to need to put at least tens of millions of dollars more on the board to match the wattage that they have.”

Meghan Scoggins is a Democrat running in a Houston-area district the party hasn’t contested since 2010. “I am having to build it all but I haven’t had any shortage of people willing to step up and help.”

The district hits the sweet spot for the Democrats in 2018. It covers wealthy (average household income: $115,530), diverse (55% black, Hispanic or Asian) Houston suburbs where Mr. Trump won 53% of the vote—well within the danger zone for Republicans who have faced double-digit backlash in special elections over the past year.

The GOP incumbent, John Zerwas, was first elected in 2006. The last time he faced a Democratic opponent, in 2010, Mr. Zerwas, who is a candidate to be Texas house speaker, won with 71% of the vote.

Mr. Zerwas called Ms. Scoggins “a legitimate opponent” but said he expects his district’s turnout to be similar to the 2014 midterm election, when Republicans romped. He discounted special-election results elsewhere in which GOP turnout has sagged.

“There’s a lot of energy around the Republicans,” he said. “I can’t say I’m around a lot of the Democrats to know about their energy.”

Ms. Scoggins, a 39-year-old who owns a company that hosts bar trivia nights, said even if she doesn’t win, her candidacy is helping Beto O’Rourke, the Texas Democrat running against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz.

“Beto can’t knock on everybody’s door,” Ms. Scoggins said. “There is just no way for him to get the personal connection of someone knocking on your door like there is for me to go and canvassing the neighborhood.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-take-a-page-from-gop-playbook-with-state-legislative-election-strategy-1527163200

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30 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

The Democrats finally got off their dead asses and starting recruiting people for races down ballot.  I was stunned how many races nationwide had no Democrat running.  Evidently, 50% of all state ledge seats in Tennessee didn't even have a Democrat running:

 

From what I've observed, it's more that Democrats finally got off their dead asses and start running for races down ballot. I get that the Obama-era DNC neglected the state and municipal government races.  But, I think the bigger component is that Trump election knocked the complacency out of the voting, but not politically active, Democrats.  Some of them realized that while they might have any clue how to get elected, nobody else really did either, so why not.  I am not aware of anyone from the national organization recruiting them. 

I think with a lot of Democrats, the impulse is to shy away from large political organizations.  There is something vaguely corporate about the whole thing.  But when the alternative is Trump, well, it's time hold your nose and get over it.  Maybe I'm just being autobiographical now. 

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