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2020 astros offseason

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Sign Cole if you can.  Teach Alvarez first base. Shop Reddick if possible.  Shop Correa. Look for the next Morton/Cole to coach up. 

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I can’t be More serious about this, the Astros need to host a Selena memorial weekend. 3 days of all of Selena’s glory. 

it’s way past due 

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Trade Reddick and Correa.

Add a quality SP.

Upgrade bullpen immediately.

Plug Tucker into Reddick's spot.

Find another undervalued gem like Yordan flying under another team's radar.

Win 100+ again.

 

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12 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Sign Cole if you can.  

Naw, he's going to eat up too much payroll.  Get more pitching depth, I trust Luhnow and Strom.  Shake up the team a bit, maybe move Correa, Osuna, and/or Greinke for value.  Can they get anything for Reddick?  Is Whitley going to work out, or is he ultimately a knucklehead?  Not that such can be known for sure yet.  Is JV on the table for the right deal?  He ain't getting younger.  

I don't really know what the best offseason moves are, but I think Luhnow may be more active this offseason and make some surprising moves.  He's not perfect, but I have a lot of faith in him.

Edited by clapclapclap

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2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Also, we need to get George Springer extended before the season starts.

This 100%, hes a huge part of this core 

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1 minute ago, clapclapclap said:

Naw, he's going to eat up too much payroll.  Get more pitching depth, I trust Luhnow and Strom.  Shake up the team a bit, maybe move Correa, Osuna, and/or Greinke for value.  Can they get anything for Reddick?  If Whitley going to work out, or is he ultimately a knucklehead?  Not that such can be known for sure yet.  Is JV on the table for the right deal?  He ain't getting younger.  

I don't really know what the best offseason moves are, but I think Luhnow may be more active this offseason and make some surprising moves.  He's not perfect, but I have a lot of faith in him.

JV shit the bed this series and probably only has one or two good years before real decline sets in. Still, I wouldn't trade him. Strom is 71. JV bought hard into Strom's teaching and also has been known to help other pitchers on the team, Cole included. I think you ride JV as long as you can, and then slide him into the coaching staff as Strom's heir.  Also, maybe you don't ride him so hard most of the season next year.  Ramp up his starts a month or two before the playoffs. 

I think Whitley should get a rotation spot early and a long leash. See what happens. 

I'd shop Osuna or cut him. Not only has he sucked on the big stage, his acquisition also changed the clubhouse. JV didn't want him at first either.  The team doesn't need wife beaters. 

Greinke should be the World Series MVP right now if not for Hinch, but he is even further along in decline than JV. Nobody is taking on that contract even if he has some gas left in the tank.

Bats should be okay, playoff performance notwithstanding. Still would shop Correa. It's also insane that we have zero pinch hitters that are better than 8/9 hitters. 

That being said. 100 wins can go fuck itself. I want a hungry playoff caliber team. 100 win teams have shown they aren't usually hungry. Instead, they buckle under high expectations. 

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4 minutes ago, Lat22 said:

I really want to move Correa. 

The only way I see that happening is if they can somehow get Anthony Rendon to come home and move Bregman to short.

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Just now, Lat22 said:

I like it.  I like it a lot!

Rendon will be 30 next year and will be asking for over $30 million per year.

Correa will be 25 next year and will get about $7.5 million.

I'm thinking we're keeping Correa.

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2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

The only way I see that happening is if they can somehow get Anthony Rendon to come home and move Bregman to short.

Cole walks, trade Correa and Reddick -- is that enough free cash to sign Rendon and extend Springer?

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Right.  We're not getting Rendon.  If we wanted to throw that kind of money and that many years at anybody, it would be Cole.

But, Cole walking and trading Reddick (I'll concede that we're probably stuck with Correa and we cross our fingers) frees up enough money for some good value upgrades.

Edited by TexArcher

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1 minute ago, TexArcher said:

Right.  We're not getting Rendon.  If we wanted to throw that kind of money at anybody, it would be Cole.

I really hope Josh James learns how to pitch. 

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Still can't believe this is what we're posting about right now.  God dammit.  Going to bed for a couple of months.

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4 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Right.  We're not getting Rendon.  If we wanted to throw that kind of money at anybody, it would be Cole.

We'd get a few less wins in the reg season without Cole, but probably more wins in the post-season with Rendon.  Definitely need another clutch hitter(s).

Hate to say it, but if I'm Cole, I think I have a better chance winning a ring by signing with the Yankees or Dodgers.  He can be the post-season near sure thing that LA needs and be close to home and family.

Edited by clapclapclap

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1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

I really hope Josh James learns how to pitch. 

I think he can. Sometimes, he's really fucking unhittable. Other times, he's the worst pitcher in baseball and may decapitate a batter or give up a HR, but he isn't getting anyone out. 

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2 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

We'd get a few less wins in the reg season without Cole, but probably more wins in the post-season with Rendon.  Definitely need another clutch hitter(s).

Rendon's clutch this year is no guarantee of future clutch though. 

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2 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

Find hitters who can hit. This postseason was largely a disaster

Correa and Greinke for Gleyber Torres. 

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Good lord. GTFO with the trading Correa/ Reddick talk

I’ll give you something needs to be done with Reddick but if the intent is to trade Reddick to dump salary, that ain’t happening.
Astros will eat most, if not all, in any deal.

On Correa.... no, not going to waste my energy


Extend Springer
Re-sign Chirinos. Would love to make a push for Grandal but I don’t see us deploying our cash on him.
I’d say go sign the Will’s (Harris and Smith) but I think they earned themselves more than what the FO will be willing to spend on middle relievers

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Thank fucking god for Dave Roberts. If it wasn't for his complete butchering of his own bullpen combined with the gift of two Darvish starts the Astros will still be sitting at 0.

The Dodgers getting eliminated by the Nationals royally fucked us this year.

How the fuck a team can win 210 games in the regular season then go 0-7 at home in their last series of the year over the span of two years boggles the fucking mind.

Please God please Wilpon answer my dreams and send some draft picks this way for Van Wagnen's BFF.

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I just wish Springer's laser beam had gone lower, or higher, or wherever. Or Greinke hadn't finally teed one up for Rendon. Or any of a number of other plays now seen as pivotal hadn't occurred. Then maybe we're patting ourselves on the backs this morning instead of feeling a need to burn it down. But hey...hot sports takes are as much a part of this game as balls and strikes. And we are, after all, Surly.

We had quite a few things to fix going into next season anyway, but it would feel much better to be fixing them after a win instead of a crushing loss. For the moment, I'm just sorry we came so close only to stumble.   

Edited by Gut Wagon

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So this is how the dodgers felt as the favorite losing to the under dog that no one gave a chance too. Fuck.

definitely need a SP but I’m not sure how aggressive we will be over the winter. I’d love to load up during this window we have and not just think it’s open forever. 

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ACTIVE PLAYERS (18)
POS.
PAYROLL SALARY
ADJ. 
SALARY
PAYROLL %
LUX. TAX SALARY
Justin Verlander SP $33,000,000  $33,000,000 15.81 33,000,000
Jose Altuve  2B $29,000,000  $29,000,000 13.89 23,357,143
Zack Greinke SP $35,000,000  $24,666,667 11.82 24,083,333
George Springer CF $21,400,000  $21,400,000 10.25 21,400,000
Michael Brantley LF $16,000,000  $16,000,000 7.66 16,000,000
Josh Reddick RF $13,000,000  $13,000,000 6.23 13,000,000
Alex Bregman 3B $12,666,666  $12,666,666 6.07 20,000,000
Roberto Osuna RP/CL $10,200,000  $10,200,000 4.89 10,200,000
Ryan Pressly RP $8,750,000  $8,750,000 4.19 6,800,000
Yulieski Gurriel 1B $8,400,000  $8,400,000 4.02 9,500,000
Carlos Correa SS $7,400,000  $7,400,000 3.54 7,400,000
Aaron Sanchez SP $5,600,000  $5,600,000 2.68 5,600,000
Brad Peacock SP $4,600,000  $4,600,000 2.20 4,600,000
Lance McCullers SP $4,100,000  $4,100,000 1.96 4,100,000
Jake Marisnick CF $3,000,000  $3,000,000 1.44 3,000,000
Chris Devenski RP $2,825,000  $2,825,000 1.35 1,525,000
Aledmys Diaz SS $2,400,000  $2,400,000 1.15 2,400,000
Joseph Biagini RP $1,500,000  $1,500,000

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For $35,000,000 a year, we should trust Greinke in the 7th inning when he’s thrown 70 or so pitches and given up 2 hits. 

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We traded for grienke to pull him after two hits and a walk, if you don’t trust him at that point then why even trade for a veteran front line starter? Hinch way over thought that move big time. The analytics of who to bring in for that situation is fine in may but not last night.

 

my hope is Yordan comes back next year to a full season and turns into another Aaron Judge.

i bet lunhow waits till the deadline to add another quality starter though.

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12 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

We traded for grienke to pull him after two hits and a walk, if you don’t trust him at that point then why even trade for a veteran front line starter? Hinch way over thought that move big time. The analytics of who to bring in for that situation is fine in may but not last night.

He'd been doing that the whole series with the starters.

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On Cole/Morton, the Astros seem like masters at taking a good pitcher on a short deal, making him better to great, then sending him off to play against them.  I don’t see how they outbid the Dodgers or Yankees, as desperate as those two teams are to win at all costs.

It may get pricey to win 100+ year in, year out but that’s obviously not really necessary.  You just need a team that can win 4 in 9 days.  So fixing pitching in innings 6-8 is the focus. You can lose all those mid guys (Peacock, Harris, Smith, etc.) if need be.  

I also think you tell Justin Verlander his Cy Young days are done and he’ll start 15-20 total so he’s not so obviously running on an empty tank in late October. 

Maybe also steal from the Nats. That was their shot and they did it. If Cole is gone, Strasburg is in an opt out year.  Rendon is available, and he is from Houston, but where do you put him?  DH?  Seems unlikely. 

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Espn+ content for you all to read on the astros offseason

 #2 is just plain lazy by the writer imo, isolated incident by one idiot does not mean their is a larger problem

Bottom line, the Astros are the Patriots of mlb right now. No front office is in a better position this offseason.

HOUSTON -- With more than 300 regular-season wins in three years, the Houston Astros have skirted with dynastic status -- or the closest thing we'll get to it in 21st-century baseball. Despite a crushing loss in Game 7 of the World Series, their contention window remains wide-open. On the field at least, there has never been a better time to be an Astro.

Still, no team heads into the offseason free of pesky questions. The irony for great teams is that their dilemmas are more interesting than the dilemmas of other teams because their players are better and inherently more compelling. They have every reason to be contented, but worrisome topics are always peering around the corner.

So it goes for the American League champion Astros. Here's a sneak peek at some of the key questions Houston will confront during the hot stove season that just began.

1. Can they re-sign Gerrit Cole?

Cole is almost certainly going to end up with the richest pitching contract in history. The current mark is the seven-year, $217 million deal David Price signed with Boston. Cole hits the open market on a historic run, with just one loss since May 22 -- the loss he took in Game 1 of the World Series. He recovered from that to dominate the Nationals in Game 5. He is a special pitcher, durable, nasty, cerebral -- the entire package. His age actually works in his favor, as he is an ace who has survived his 20s to put up more innings than ever. For top-level starters, there is a Darwinist effect at play. Seven years? Eight years? Nine? With Scott Boras negotiating, anything is possible. But $270 million to $300 million seems doable after the October Cole just put up.

Can the Astros afford that neighborhood? Let's say it'll take an eight-year, $275 million deal, which is $34.4 million per season. In his last year of arbitration, Cole made $13.5 million for his dazzling 2019 campaign. That is roughly a $21 million raise, one that would stay in effect for eight years, in terms of average annual value.

Houston's 2019 payroll ranked sixth in baseball at just a shade under $200 million, according to Cot's Contracts, which is about $6 million under the luxury-tax threshold. The Astros have never ventured into luxury-tax waters. Just before the playoffs, Houston owner Jim Crane told the Houston Chronicle that he would prefer to stay under the tax line.

Well, something has to give. We'll get into a bit more detail shortly, but if the Astros were to accommodate Cole's market price, good players would have to be moved and Houston would almost certainly have to forgo pursuit of other free agents. On top of that, the Astros' mantra all through their rebuild and ascension has been sustainability. They've kept their prospect pipeline flowing and held the line in salary negotiations. A full-out pursuit of Cole doesn't seem to fit that paradigm.

And consider this: The Astros have won the AL West the past three seasons by a combined 37 games. Even without Cole, they would field a good rotation. Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke will be back to head the group. Rookie Jose Urquidy should get a chance to be a big league starter. Lance McCullers Jr. is already back throwing after undergoing Tommy John surgery late last year. Plus, the Astros have a number of highly regarded starting prospects.

The most likely outcome is that the Astros generate the perception that they are bidding to keep Cole but refuse to go past a certain number, one they probably have already calculated. Cole will end up elsewhere, the Astros will still be good, and some other fan base will be very excited.

2. Do they need to overhaul the organizational culture?

The postseason controversy that resulted in the termination of assistant general manager Brandon Taubman turned into a widespread condemnation of how the Astros run their organization. Almost none of this -- if any at all -- has anything to do with the players, manager AJ Hinch or his coaching staff.

Thus it falls to Crane and general manager Jeff Luhnow to do a little bit of internal inventory. Only they can know the answers to these questions: Have we created a culture in which the ends always justify the means? Have we created an operation people are proud to be a part of? Do we care how we are perceived in the industry?

Again, only they can answer these questions, and they should do so honestly. Because at some point, you'll be able to hire only who you can get instead of who you want.

3. Do they trade George Springer?

Springer is entering his fourth and final year of arbitration, and the model used at MLB Trade Rumors estimates he'll earn $21.4 million next season. He's 30 years old, a face of the franchise, a key part of the team's clubhouse culture and a very good player to boot. Springer is coming off a season in which he hit a career-best 39 homers with another personal best in OPS: .974.

How does sustainability play into this? What is Springer's market value, as opposed to his value to the Astros' brand and culture? Do these things align in a way that could result in an extension offer?

If not, the Astros have two choices: Plan to let Springer walk after next season, presumably after tendering a qualifying offer that would trigger a compensatory draft pick, or trade him. If they trade Springer, they probably want to do it this winter. The most likely outcome is the Astros let things play out and keep their core intact for 2020 while trying to retain Springer on some sort of team-friendly extension. Failing that, they make him the qualifying offer.

But they at least have to listen to curious trade inquirers.

4. Which of the other free agents do they pursue?

Right now, in addition to Cole, the Astros will have catchers Robinson Chirinos and Martin Maldonado, relievers Will Harris, Joe Smith and Hector Rondon, starter Wade Miley and swingman Collin McHugh hitting the open market. Maldonado is not eligible for a qualifying offer. The others are but probably won't get one -- except, of course, Cole.

Harris and Smith might have both earned themselves a good bit of interest with their outstanding performances in the offseason. You figure the Astros will remain in on re-signing them while allowing McHugh to go. Also, it isn't easy to find offense/defense catchers the quality of Chirinos.

However, the bottom line is that the Astros' financial flexibility is thin. They have good pitching depth in the system. They'll sign a veteran buy-low arm or three, but chances are, most or all of their free agents will be playing elsewhere by the time spring training rolls around.

5. How high will arbitration take the Houston payroll?

If Crane prefers to steer clear of the tax line, Luhnow and his staff will have to get creative. With Springer, Roberto Osuna and Carlos Correa all likely to get arbitration-fueled raises, the Astros' payroll is swelling. That's without re-signing any of their prospective free agents. A back-of-the-envelope estimate suggests that bringing back the same group sans Cole and the other free agents could result in a payroll of more than $220 million. That would be $14 million or so on the wrong side of the luxury tax threshold.

Cuts will have to be made. There could be some non-tenders in the offing for arbitration-eligible performers such as Aledmys Diaz, Joe Biagini, Brad Peacock and maybe others. The Astros are going to have to get more mileage next season out of their talented but unproven pre-arb players. It's just the way baseball works.

Success is what you strive for. But success, when sustained, becomes awfully expensive in the sports universe. The big question underpinning all the little ones for the Astros to answer this winter will simply be: How expensive are we willing to get?

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1 hour ago, Gut Wagon said:

I just wish Springer's laser beam had gone lower, or higher, or wherever. Or Greinke hadn't finally teed one up for Rendon. Or any of a number of other plays now seen as pivotal hadn't occurred. 

If we want to go down this road, the 1980s-style National League “manufacturing runs” stuff with this lineup infuriated me.  Especially the bunting.  Having your catcher who hit 2HR in the series bunt.  Having your other catcher who has hit a HR in the series bunt.  Bunting with catchers who clearly don’t know how to do it. 

If you are going to bunt in Game 7 of the fucking World Series, coach them up on bunting.  
 

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So how does this rank as biggest chokes in MLB WS history? I know we were biggest favorite in a long time and the last big favorite swept and took care of business

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We’ll get a 2nd round compensation draft pick as long as we make a competitive offer to Cole, right? 

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Big offseason ahead.  We have a chance next year to be the first mlb team ever with four straight 100 win seasons. 

I'll check in next week when the band wagoners quit telling us how to fix the team and it's back to the normal discussions.

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44 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Don’t remember it being that drastic of a pull though. 

True, Greinke was cruising most of the game. Either way I don't think he was going to hold them to 1 run the rest of the game so it's somewhat moot with the offense not scoring any runs.

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They should have let him finish the 7th then you bring in Cole in the 8th to say goodbye to the fans then you bring in Osuna in the 9th.

Whatever you don't do is stick in a player who got waxed the fuck out the night before. Once you get hammered in the face you need at least a day off before running back out there. Sucks for Will Harris but how often have we seen relievers be fucking amazing for a while only to turn into abject dogshit under Hinch?  At some point in time it's like blaming every single one of your exes as a psycho and thinking they all have the problem when in reality it is you who have the problem.

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