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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


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So in light of the fact that Georgia is now going to be the canary in the coal mine, if shit goes as predictably sideways as it well may, does being able to dunk on Kemp's handling of this situation increase the likelihood that Stacey Abrams will be Biden's choice for VP? 

 

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2 hours ago, Prepuce of Doom said:

So in light of the fact that Georgia is now going to be the canary in the coal mine, if shit goes as predictably sideways as it well may, does being able to dunk on Kemp's handling of this situation increase the likelihood that Stacey Abrams will be Biden's choice for VP? 

 

Here's the problem with Stacey Abrams: she's never held more than a state house seat.  And whoever Biden picks is going to need to be able to assume the presidency immediately.  I think that pretty much narrows the field to (1) Senators, (2) Congresswomen, (3) Governors, and (4) Michelle Obama.

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Just now, Ghost of LL said:

Here's the problem with Stacey Abrams: she's never held more than a state house seat.  And whoever Biden picks is going to need to be able to assume the presidency immediately.  I think that pretty much narrows the field to (1) Senators, (2) Congresswomen, (3) Governors, and (4) Michelle Obama.

To be fair, she should be governing Georgia right now. But she’s not my first choice anyway. Also, I really don’t get why people are buying into the “Joe is dying” thing. It’s the same thing they tried with Hillary. She’s doing fine, last I checked. 

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1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

To be fair, she should be governing Georgia right now. But she’s not my first choice anyway. Also, I really don’t get why people are buying into the “Joe is dying” thing. It’s the same thing they tried with Hillary. She’s doing fine, last I checked. 

She should be.  But she isn't.

And I didn't say "Joe is dying."  I will say, however, that on Inauguration Day, he'll be 78 years old.  He looks like he's in fine shape, but I'm just speaking as to the actuarial tables--78-year old guys with high-stress jobs don't have fantastically long life expectancies.  He could definitely make it to January 20, 2025.  But he also might not, and his vice president is going to need to be better prepared than most vice presidents have been.  

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3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

To be fair, she should be governing Georgia right now. But she’s not my first choice anyway. Also, I really don’t get why people are buying into the “Joe is dying” thing. It’s the same thing they tried with Hillary. She’s doing fine, last I checked. 

if joe is not up to running again in 2024, and i think it's at least a 50-50 shot that he's not, then there needs to be a succession plan in place with his vp pick, even if it means that person becomes president in 2022 and is the presumptive nominee in 2024.  for that reason, i agree, i would like someone with some governing experience as vp.

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We’ll start with the good news for him: Biden leads President Trump nationally by 7 points among all registered voters, 49 percent to 42 percent (though that’s down from his 9-point advantage a month ago).

 

And when the race is reduced to 11 swing states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Biden’s combined lead over Trump is 6 points, 49 percent to 43 percent.

Demographically, he’s where a winning Democratic nominee usually wants to be: His biggest advantages are with African-American voters (where he leads Trump, 85 percent to 7 percent), Latinos (60 percent to 26 percent), voters ages 18-34 (54 percent to 31 percent), women (56 percent to 35 percent) and whites with a college degree (55 percent to 37 percent).

That's actually not great.  Latinos generally are carried in the high 60's. Obviously, 14% are undecided, so maybe he gets there.  Biden is destroying Trump with AA's.  The only question with the demographic is turnout.  No one should fret now about Biden carrying them.  Young voters isn't great for Joe either.  He needs that over 60%.

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But here’s the bad news for the former vice president: while he leads Trump by 20-plus points among voters 18-34, they have a net-negative personal opinion of him (a fav/unfav of 25 percent/44 percent), which is a definite warning sign for Biden.

When asked if they trust his statements about the coronavirus, a plurality of voters — 42 percent — said they weren’t aware of his statements or didn’t have an opinion, while 26 percent said they trusted him and 29 percent didn’t. (By comparison, Trump is at 36 percent trust, 52 percent don’t trust, and 10 percent not aware/no opinion.)

And finally, Biden trails Trump by 11 points on which candidate better handles the economy, 47 percent to 36 percent.

It's amazing how many people don't understand the economy. 

Some Trump weakness.  If the country opens up in the next couple of weeks and the impacts are muted, he'll score a major victory.  If we see a resurgence, he'll likely be done.

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And to show you how unprecedented it is for an incumbent president not to have the advantage on crisis handling, here’s this same poll question from past election cycles:

  • 2012: 46 percent Obama better handling a crisis, 34 percent Romney better (Aug 2012 NBC/WSJ poll).
  • 2004: 47 percent Bush better, 35 percent Kerry better (May 2004 Pew poll).
  • 1996: 47 percent Clinton better, 38 percent Dole better (March 1996 Pew poll).

But here are the numbers in our new NBC News/WSJ poll on who would better handle a crisis: Biden 47 percent, Trump 38 percent.

 

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3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

if joe is not up to running again in 2024, and i think it's at least a 50-50 shot that he's not, then there needs to be a succession plan in place with his vp pick, even if it means that person becomes president in 2022 and is the presumptive nominee in 2024.  for that reason, i agree, i would like someone with some governing experience as vp.

I would definitely not be shocked to see Biden resign due to "health concerns" in early February 2023 so that his vice president can run as an incumbent.

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7 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

That's actually not great.  Latinos generally are carried in the high 60's. Obviously, 14% are undecided, so maybe he gets there.  Biden is destroying Trump with AA's.  The only question with the demographic is turnout.  No one should fret now about Biden carrying them.  Young voters isn't great for Joe either.  He needs that over 60%.

those are some concerns i guess, but one thing stood out to me, and the main reason biden will win going away - women.

this is only one poll, but most of these numbers have been fairly steady, and similar to hillary's numbers.  african american +80, latino +35.  but hillary was +12 with women, and most of the polls i've seen have biden almost twice that (here he's +21).  pretty huge demo to stretch out the lead.  if the women vote translates into suburban moms in those 5-6 states, then it's all over but the crying.

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47 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

those are some concerns i guess, but one thing stood out to me, and the main reason biden will win going away - women.

this is only one poll, but most of these numbers have been fairly steady, and similar to hillary's numbers.  african american +80, latino +35.  but hillary was +12 with women, and most of the polls i've seen have biden almost twice that (here he's +21).  pretty huge demo to stretch out the lead.  if the women vote translates into suburban moms in those 5-6 states, then it's all over but the crying.

Women are proving they are much smarter than men. While they beat us in the crazy category, I’m beginning to believe that’s just because they have to put up with such a plethora of dumbass men. That will drive you crazy. 

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Georgia is a fast growing state that is 55% non-Latino White. That puts the state at about 27% white male, which is the republican wheel house. Obviously who shows up on Election Day tends to be a much older and whiter crowd, but it’s amazing to me that Republicans still hold onto Georgia. 

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1 hour ago, TornACL said:

Bill Mitchell is one of the elite few who can elevate his stupidity to truly breathtaking levels. 

This is true. Some of the things he says are so stupid they are zen like in that they push you into a Buddhist state of ineffable contemplation.

 

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This is absolutely inexcusable by the fucking Biden campaign. And they haven't hired a single digital staffer since the corona shutdown last month. 

 

Keep an eye on the overall larger issue that Biden's campaign staff is REALLY weak. They did absolutely jack shit to secure him the nomination. He didn't spend a penny in post-Super Tuesday states that he dominated. 

Biden's digital director is a Beto 2019 alum. The guy sucks. Biden's campaign manager is a Beto 2019 alum. What are they doing? What are they waiting for? It seems like they're so proud to be on the winning campaign that they forgot to actually put in the work. 

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20 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

It seems like they're so proud to be on the winning campaign that they forgot to actually put in the work. 

or, they think they're doing everything right and they're responsible for the win.  which is way worse.

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Just now, henrygandorf said:

or, they think they're doing everything right and they're responsible for the win.  which is way worse.

That's probably a better answer. And yes, way worse. 

Trump's campaign is preparing for war. Biden's team is busy patting themselves on the back. 

Wake. the. fuck. up. 

 

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On 4/20/2020 at 4:32 PM, Prepuce of Doom said:

So in light of the fact that Georgia is now going to be the canary in the coal mine, if shit goes as predictably sideways as it well may, does being able to dunk on Kemp's handling of this situation increase the likelihood that Stacey Abrams will be Biden's choice for VP? 

 

Isn’t Georgia already light, light red?  Would doing this kill off enough Rs that Georgia could go blue, especially considering what Abrams has been doing with her Fair Fight voting group.

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4 hours ago, F250 said:

This is true. Some of the things he says are so stupid they are zen like in that they push you into a Buddhist state of ineffable contemplation.

 

This is how I’m trying to approach the next 6 months with the entire admin. 

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How are they this stupid.

they should know the impacts of Facebook and YouTube on voters from last election.

get the Lincoln project guys or anyone to help out.

man he really gonna lose this election again

ppl are home, they should be making 5 adds a day with all the time they have

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4 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

How are they this stupid.

they should know the impacts of Facebook and YouTube on voters from last election.

get the Lincoln project guys or anyone to help out.

man he really gonna lose this election again

ppl are home, they should be making 5 adds a day with all the time they have

Donald Trump didn't win because of Facebook.

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Just now, David Dennison said:

Donald Trump didn't win because of Facebook.

Agreed, it played a part. The negative adds and fake posts on Facebook helped him a lot. Biden needs to be infront of this shit and Make adds on FB to spread out. The adds that Trump will have will be Pushed Every way.

dont think Biden campaign understands digital images to use for their campaign   

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On 4/20/2020 at 8:06 AM, Chuckie Finster said:

On Day 1 of the Trump Presidency, his approval rating average was 46% approve/37% disapprove.  Then, about three weeks in, his disapproval rating hit 52% and has basically hovered between that and 55% for three-plus years.

I know it's conventional wisdom that people have always known what Trump is, but the data shows that there was a decent percentage of undecided/"give him a chance" people at first.  They have subsequently, and almost unanimously, disapproved.

And here is where it manifests:

 

This is a long term problem for the GOP.

 

does anyone see the suburbs going red again?  Nikki Haley won’t deliver them on a silver platter like some goofy trumpkins think.

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13 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

I look forward to the conservative meltdown when they find out how long it takes Arizona to count votes.

Funny thing is, it’s ALWAYS taken Arizona a long time to count ballots. We are just now hearing about how flawed their supposed process is?  I wonder why.

 

The president deserves to go to hell. fuck him.

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does anyone see the suburbs going red again?


Yes. When Trump is gone, Democrats are in control, and the GOP gets them a nice Mitt Romney type, white moderates will be flocking back to the GOP. It's already telegraphed with all the "don't lose my vote" stuff.

They're part of the coalition this cycle, and that's good because the enemy of my enemy is my friend, but I very much doubt for the long term.
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15 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

This is absolutely inexcusable by the fucking Biden campaign. And they haven't hired a single digital staffer since the corona shutdown last month. 

 

Keep an eye on the overall larger issue that Biden's campaign staff is REALLY weak. They did absolutely jack shit to secure him the nomination. He didn't spend a penny in post-Super Tuesday states that he dominated. 

Biden's digital director is a Beto 2019 alum. The guy sucks. Biden's campaign manager is a Beto 2019 alum. What are they doing? What are they waiting for? It seems like they're so proud to be on the winning campaign that they forgot to actually put in the work. 

Absolute fucking malpractice.

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17 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


 

 


Yes. When Trump is gone, Democrats are in control, and the GOP gets them a nice Mitt Romney type, white moderates will be flocking back to the GOP. It's already telegraphed with all the "don't lose my vote" stuff.

They're part of the coalition this cycle, and that's good because the enemy of my enemy is my friend, but I very much doubt for the long term.

 

I think there are a lot who will.  But I think there are also a lot who will remember what the Trumpublican Party really is.

But honestly--Nikki Haley is not the nominee in 2024.  Donald Trump is.  There is simply no way Trump won't run for a non-consecutive second term.  And there is no way the Trumpublican Party would deny him the nomination.

He might pick Haley as his running mate--shit, I think he's going to do that this year--but she would never defeat him in a primary contest.

 

 

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