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2021 World Series: Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves


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13 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

MLBN talking about the pitching that ATL has faced/defeated already this postseason:

148EE6C8-FE96-4FC4-8281-7DE6B2C2F361.thumb.jpeg.21440777d2213380d72b0051f9c93c95.jpeg

also mentioning that they had walk-off hits against Hader, Treinen, and and Kenley. 

not bad for the Yawn Squad.

They are 13th by wRC+. They are 9th by wOBA. They are 9th by team OPS. They aren’t a juggernaught. They are a smack dab around the 65th percentile in MLB in offenses. What point exactly are you making. Most of life is a mid 25-75th percentile type thing. That’s a range of average. The Braves are within the range of average 25-75th percentile offensively. 
doesn’t mean they won’t win the series or even sweep the series. But adjusting for all the numbers they aren’t particularly strong as far as playoff teams go. Isn’t at all determinative of who wins a best 4 out of 7. 

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Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

What exactly point are you making.

the exact same point i've been making this entire time: the astros fans in this forum who all but declared the series over before it started and who shit on the braves lineup were wrong. and if they hadn't been such dismissive dicks about the entire thing then maybe i wouldn't still be in here rubbing it in, but they were, so i am.

and again, stop using season long statistics to describe the Braves offense. you're better than that wulaw. it's so blatantly disingenuous it's just stupid. especially coming from Astros fans. or did you all just sleep through 2004? prior to the trade deadline the Astros were dead last in the NL Central, behind some shitty pirates and reds teams. they then acquired Carlos Beltran, became a different team, finished the season hot, and ended up playing for the pennant behind the heroics of their big trade deadline signing. 

HELLO! That's this year's Braves. only they didn't add one bat, they added FOUR, and they've been a completely different team since then. you keep screaming about how your astros brethren are "just posting facts"; guess what? so did i, and every time i did those facts (acquired four hitters at the trade deadline, 20 games above .500 since the trade deadline, scoring 5.2 runs per game since the trade deadline, posting Ozzie Albies' production, etc) it was met with entitled, dismissive bullshit. "they're worse than white sox"; "they only have three good hitters"; "Ozzie Albies has been average"; "YAWN".

don't act like you don't know what's going on here. a bunch of entitled loudmouths from a shitty fan base acted like dicks and are getting their comeuppance. sorry that you happen to be a fan of the same team as them. 🤷🏼‍♂️ 

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9 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

the exact same point i've been making this entire time: the astros fans in this forum who all but declared the series over before it started and who shit on the braves lineup were wrong. and if they hadn't been such dismissive dicks about the entire thing then maybe i wouldn't still be in here rubbing it in, but they were, so i am.

and again, stop using season long statistics to describe the Braves offense. you're better than that wulaw. it's so blatantly disingenuous it's just stupid. especially coming from Astros fans. or did you all just sleep through 2004? prior to the trade deadline the Astros were dead last in the NL Central, behind some shitty pirates and reds teams. they then acquired Carlos Beltran, became a different team, finished the season hot, and ended up playing for the pennant behind the heroics of their big trade deadline signing. 

HELLO! That's this year's Braves. only they didn't add one bat, they added FOUR, and they've been a completely different team since then. you keep screaming about how your astros brethren are "just posting facts"; guess what? so did i, and every time i did those facts (acquired four hitters at the trade deadline, 20 games above .500 since the trade deadline, scoring 5.2 runs per game since the trade deadline, posting Ozzie Albies' production, etc) it was met with entitled, dismissive bullshit. "they're worse than white sox"; "they only have three good hitters"; "Ozzie Albies has been average"; "YAWN".

don't act like you don't know what's going on here. a bunch of entitled loudmouths from a shitty fan base acted like dicks and are getting their comeuppance. sorry that you happen to be a fan of the same team as them. 🤷🏼‍♂️ 

You are on tilt. The guy you quoted did nothing but spit numbers using advanced metrics that showed those Braves hitters you were gushing about were 5-10% above league average. He wasn’t wrong. 
man’s go read the Astros thread before the series. Nobody was acting dismissively of the Braves they were saying anything can happen blah blah blah we are slight favorites but who knows. The consensus amongst Astros fans seems to be Astros in 6. I don’t think anyone was overconfident or particularly dismissive of the Braves. The Braves offense wasn’t as good as the Red Sox offense coming into the series. 
Framber sucked. Atlanta had 3 squinted/infield hits and they Astros committed two errors and they scored 6 runs. When we did similar against Boston they bashed our heads in for 9/10. The Braves also smoked some balls. That’s baseball. 
the Astros won’t win if their starters all pitch like Framber did. The Braves won’t win if they can’t score on our bullpen. Those are both probabilistic things bc that’s what baseball is. 

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On 10/25/2021 at 7:02 PM, Starfleet Command said:

That’s nice but Albies doesn’t get on base all that often so overall he’s been about average the past couple of seasons and his xwOBA doesn’t indicate that he’s been unlucky either.  Duvall isn’t all that much different. Neither has had a  >.350 xwOBA in their respective careers. Yawn. 

"Ozzie Albies has been about average the last two seasons. Yawn."

You say shit like that about a guy who's going to win the silver slugger this year and then double and triple down on it, completely dismissing the idea that he and his team are a threat? yeah. you're going to get called out on it. SOP.

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19 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

the exact same point i've been making this entire time: the astros fans in this forum who all but declared the series over before it started and who shit on the braves lineup were wrong. and if they hadn't been such dismissive dicks about the entire thing then maybe i wouldn't still be in here rubbing it in, but they were, so i am.

and again, stop using season long statistics to describe the Braves offense. you're better than that wulaw. it's so blatantly disingenuous it's just stupid. especially coming from Astros fans. or did you all just sleep through 2004? prior to the trade deadline the Astros were dead last in the NL Central, behind some shitty pirates and reds teams. they then acquired Carlos Beltran, became a different team, finished the season hot, and ended up playing for the pennant behind the heroics of their big trade deadline signing. 

HELLO! That's this year's Braves. only they didn't add one bat, they added FOUR, and they've been a completely different team since then. you keep screaming about how your astros brethren are "just posting facts"; guess what? so did i, and every time i did those facts (acquired four hitters at the trade deadline, 20 games above .500 since the trade deadline, scoring 5.2 runs per game since the trade deadline, posting Ozzie Albies' production, etc) it was met with entitled, dismissive bullshit. "they're worse than white sox"; "they only have three good hitters"; "Ozzie Albies has been average"; "YAWN".

don't act like you don't know what's going on here. a bunch of entitled loudmouths from a shitty fan base acted like dicks and are getting their comeuppance. sorry that you happen to be a fan of the same team as them. 🤷🏼‍♂️ 

Any mlb team could win a best of 7 series against any other mlb team.  🤷🏼‍♂️

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@Guadaloopy couldn’t help but notice your inquisitiveness while I was perusing the Astro thread for my daily tear dosage. Lead off walks score about 20-25% of the time in the MLB. Lead off homers score 100% of the time. The myth that being reliant on the homer in the postseason is bad has long been destroyed, especially in this day & age. Intuitively what’s more difficult when facing elite pitching, trying to string together multiple hits/walks for a rally or capitalizing on one mistake pitch & putting a run on the board that way?

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14 minutes ago, Helobious said:

@Guadaloopy couldn’t help but notice your inquisitiveness while I was perusing the Astro thread for my daily tear dosage. Lead off walks score about 20-25% of the time in the MLB. Lead off homers score 100% of the time. The myth that being reliant on the homer in the postseason is bad has long been destroyed, especially in this day & age. Intuitively what’s more difficult when facing elite pitching, trying to string together multiple hits/walks for a rally or capitalizing on one mistake pitch & putting a run on the board that way?

I know better than to dive in to this conversation, but imma do it anyway.  
 

My question was about which leads to more multi-run innings - a leadoff homer vs a leadoff walk - not about which one results in a run more often.  I’m not a mental giant, but I’m not that dense.  
 

The question was also specific to the situation.  Yes, generally you’d always prefer a leadoff HR over a leadoff walk, because bird in hand.  
But the Astros needed at least 4 runs in the bottom of the 9th to keep the game alive.  
 

What is better in that situation? A leadoff HR that gets you one run closer or a leadoff base runner that puts the pitcher into the stretch and adds another variable to the pitcher’s thought process?  A leadoff HR is over and done with, so reset and move on to the next guy.  A runner on base doesn’t let a pitcher reset so quickly after a mistake.  
 

My point, inelegantly made, was that I wasn’t very disappointed that Diaz’s smash hooked foul once he worked the walk.  

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1 hour ago, Guadaloopy said:

I know better than to dive in to this conversation, but imma do it anyway.  
 

My question was about which leads to more multi-run innings - a leadoff homer vs a leadoff walk - not about which one results in a run more often.  I’m not a mental giant, but I’m not that dense.  
 

The question was also specific to the situation.  Yes, generally you’d always prefer a leadoff HR over a leadoff walk, because bird in hand.  
But the Astros needed at least 4 runs in the bottom of the 9th to keep the game alive.  
 

What is better in that situation? A leadoff HR that gets you one run closer or a leadoff base runner that puts the pitcher into the stretch and adds another variable to the pitcher’s thought process?  A leadoff HR is over and done with, so reset and move on to the next guy.  A runner on base doesn’t let a pitcher reset so quickly after a mistake.  
 

My point, inelegantly made, was that I wasn’t very disappointed that Diaz’s smash hooked foul once he worked the walk.  

Yeah- the run expectancy thing is always going to be better for a leadoff hitter than a leadoff walk- I guess here is the way you'd actually want to look at it for that situation...


What percentage of the time does a leadoff walk lead to a 4+run inning?

What percentage of the time does a leadoff HR lead to a 4 + run inning.  That's how to frame the question to find your answer.  

I suspect the percentage is much higher for the HR- but that the percentage for both is exceedingly shitty.  Don't know where to find that data if I cared to find it.

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2 hours ago, Guadaloopy said:

What is better in that situation? A leadoff HR that gets you one run closer or a leadoff base runner that puts the pitcher into the stretch and adds another variable to the pitcher’s thought process?  A leadoff HR is over and done with, so reset and move on to the next guy.  A runner on base doesn’t let a pitcher reset so quickly after a mistake.

If a leadoff walk is really going to be more damaging to a pitcher than a leadoff homer, then all the pitcher has to do is balk three times in a row and he has put himself in a better situation.  

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OK- I got the data from 1978-2003

leadoff first base- scores 4+ runs in an inning 9471 times out of 183,468 chances = 5.16% of the time

Leadoff HR scores 4+ runs in an inning 1569 times out of 27,205 opportunities='s 5.76% of the time.


So, you are 12% more likely to score 4+ with a leadoff HR.  The only argument you could make (and it's a dumb one) is that a person has seen way more leadoff walks (or single's) turn into 4+ run innings than leadoff HR's, but that's just b/c there are so many more leadoff guys getting to first than getting home.  Verdict- dumb to root for a leadoff walk over a leadoff HR if you are looking for 4+ runs in an inning- but the difference isn't as great as the run expectancy would make it seem, maybe.  

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3 hours ago, Guadaloopy said:

What is better in that situation? A leadoff HR that gets you one run closer or a leadoff base runner that puts the pitcher into the stretch and adds another variable to the pitcher’s thought process?  A leadoff HR is over and done with, so reset and move on to the next guy.  A runner on base doesn’t let a pitcher reset so quickly after a mistake.  

Totally disagree. I think a homer fucks with a pitcher way more than a walk. Just think about what's more likely to get a pitcher yanked.

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Final follow up to that data piece...

There is no statistically significant difference between how many runs score on a leadoff walk vs a leadoff hit, vs a leadoff error.  There is a very very very minor difference in HBP is slightly more likely to score than lead off walk, hit or error, but I would suspect there is just less of those outcomes and the difference isn't meaningful.

Also- 84.5% of the time you get the first guy out in an inning the other team doesn't score.  The average run expectancy is 0.24 runs per inning.  So, if you have to take a beer piss break at the ballpark and you can't do it all during the time in between innings, leave after the first batter in an inning makes an out.  You aren't likely to miss anything and if you do it's not likely to be a big inning.  

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8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So, if you have to take a beer piss break at the ballpark and you can't do it all during the time in between innings, leave after the first batter in an inning makes an out.  You aren't likely to miss anything and if you do it's not likely to be a big inning.  

Getting to the things that matter. 

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7 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

the exact same point i've been making this entire time: the astros fans in this forum who all but declared the series over before it started and who shit on the braves lineup were wrong. and if they hadn't been such dismissive dicks about the entire thing then maybe i wouldn't still be in here rubbing it in, but they were, so i am.

You'd have a better point if literally one Astros fan had shat on the Braves.

Everyone has said, basically, the Braves are a good offense, but not as good as the Astros.  You've been shown the stats that support this.  The other thing that seems to be sticking some people's craw is the suggestion that the Braves probably aren't any better than the White Sox or Red Sox.  Well, they're probably not.  If you think they are, show your work. 

Does that mean the Astros are guaranteed to win this series?  Of course not.  It's baseball.  Does the Braves winning Game 1 in any way entitle you to crow about being right?  That's fucking ludicrous.  It's baseball.

P.S. Please keep hating us when we're in the World Series another 3 times in the next 5 years.  It really adds to the experience for us.

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Lol. No one is making 8 LCS’s in 10 years in this day and age. Late 90s yanks couldn’t even do that. This is the end of the line for the Astros, which is why winning this series is so important. Correa is gone. Altuve is showing you his future going forward. No idea on Bregs status but he won’t stay much longer. Yordan is a monster and will be the cornerstone of the team but he’s just one guy. Too streaky as well. You guys will still win the West because it sucks that bad but your run is 100% over starting next year. 

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10 hours ago, Constant said:

The Braves are America’s team for this series. 

Probably true. In 2017 the Astros cheated by using electronic means to relay catcher's signals to the batter and were subsequently the subject of an MLB investigation. In 2017 the Braves cheated by violating human trafficking laws and were subsequently the investigation of a Department of Justice and FBI investigation.

So yes, America is probably more bothered by the former.

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1 minute ago, kevwun said:

Yes, the guy you never throw a first pitch up and inside strike to crushed one.  Clearly something is going on.

I was joking.  It's Smyly. Everyone tees off on him. Even I could hit it over the 315 sign off him.

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4 minutes ago, Burt said:

I was joking.  It's Smyly. Everyone tees off on him. Even I could hit it over the 315 sign off him.

True but it's not just Smyly. It's absolutely stupid how many first pitch belt high fastballs Altuve gets. He's going to retire before MLB pitchers believe he can and will destroy those. 

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1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

True but it's not just Smyly. It's absolutely stupid how many first pitch belt high fastballs Altuve gets. He's going to retire before MLB pitchers believe he can and will destroy those. 

At least teams know to shift their 2B to the left side of the infield so he'll be closer to watching the ball fly out.

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