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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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6 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

They could, but not as easy as everyone thinks. You need a network to even start planning. Saw a few weeks ago some of the hard line Islamic groups from the Caucus say they are on the Ukrainian side. Those dudes (and dudettes) already have a network. 

There’s no doubt.  And then you’re entering some serious 32 sided dice bullshit if/when you decide to honor that commitment.   

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3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Ukraine’s best bet is to fight ferociously and pile up so many Russian bodies that even Putin will have a hard time controlling the narrative.  Contrary to what you hear, the Russian public is notbaying for war. 

They will probably hammer away at any Russian logistics lines within their reach - force the Russians to pull front-line troops to guard those lines and keep the supplies flowing.

The Russians can't pull a Sherman and cut their supply lines and start living off the land.  Takes a lot to keep all of their mechanized units going, and it could really strain their air and sea transports as well.

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1 hour ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

This is the first I’ve heard of anyone really thinking this. Is this guy off his rocker? 
 

 

no fucking way are we going to war over eastern ukraine.  isn’t this guy ukrainian?  if so, his bias is just showing. 

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1 hour ago, Telegraph_it said:

Better have google flights bookmarked. 

That’s worked out good recently….   We, well private sectors are still pulling US citizens out of Afghanistan that refused/didn’t make it as of a couple days ago.  

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1 hour ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

This is the first I’ve heard of anyone really thinking this. Is this guy off his rocker? 
 

 

 

12 minutes ago, ONE YARD said:

no fucking way are we going to war over eastern ukraine.  isn’t this guy ukrainian?  if so, his bias is just showing. 

If you listen to the rest of the interview, it's pretty clear he doesn't mean "we", the US, are going to be at war but, more globally, he thinks we're all going to see a war in Ukraine on a scale not seen in Europe since WWII. Personally, I don't know if that's true, but that's a better interpretation of what he meant.

He does seem a little nervous/agitated in the full interview and, yes, it might be because he was born in Ukraine and lived there some as a small child. He may also still have some family there - dunno though.

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1 hour ago, bolverk said:

 

If you listen to the rest of the interview, it's pretty clear he doesn't mean "we", the US, are going to be at war but, more globally, he thinks we're all going to see a war in Ukraine on a scale not seen in Europe since WWII. Personally, I don't know if that's true, but that's a better interpretation of what he meant.

He does seem a little nervous/agitated in the full interview and, yes, it might be because he was born in Ukraine and lived there some as a small child. He may also still have some family there - dunno though.

Ukraine has 41 million people in it. It'll be by far the biggest since WW2 if they put up a fight.

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The Biden administration is considering sending as many as 5,000 U.S. troops to Eastern Europe, a U.S. official confirmed to NPR

Quote

The New York Times, which first reported the news of planned troop movements, said senior Pentagon officials laid out a number of options for President Biden on Saturday.

Among them, sending 1,000 to 5,000 troops to Eastern European countries and the Baltics, "with the potential to increase that number tenfold if things deteriorate," according to the Times.

Are we to care more about the threat to Europe than do the Europeans? The U.S. ought to consider telling them to take the lead by sending their own troops to East Europe and quit depending on 'daddy' to take the initiative. 

Macron is always ranting about the need for Europeans to be quasi-independent of the U.S.; now is a perfect time for him to turn words into action and send French troops to, you know, show the Russians that Europe won't put up with their nonsense. Of course, France is not going to confront Russia over Ukraine, and neither should we.

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16 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


Thanks.

My wonder is….based on the pattern of Crimea and Donbas…might they have already started planning and putting things in place some time ago? Asymmetric disruptive attacks are low-cost, so it wouldn’t have required a lot.

And white guys who look and speak fluent Russian aren’t going to get many questions about their activities within Moscow etc. Thats an advantage they might have over the Muslim types.

Muslim north Caucasians speak perfect Russian and most of them don't look any different than a Russian.  Plus, there are tons of Chechens, Dagestanis, Ingush, etc. in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other big Russian cities already anyway.  They're more than capable of pulling off this type of stuff and have done so plenty of times in the past.

Below is Ramzan Kadyrov, the president of semi-autonomous Chechnya and a go-to for Putin's dirty work when he wants someone knocked off somewhere and doesn't feel like opening the biohazard vaults. Shave his beard and he looks just like any of the millions of burly "sportsmen" types wandering around European Russia.

 

Kadyrov says 74,000 Chechens 'ready to go to Ukraine'

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7 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

I really don't care what Russia does in Ukraine. I don't think it's appeasement to let Putin have his way there. If he then moved on the Baltics or back into MittelEuropa that's another thing, but Ukraine is not worth a drop of American blood.

 

 

 

6 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Don’t fucking do it.

💯 

This just seems like a recipe for disaster. We seem to care more about all this than the Europeans even do. 

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8 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

I really don't care what Russia does in Ukraine. I don't think it's appeasement to let Putin have his way there. If he then moved on the Baltics or back into MittelEuropa that's another thing, but Ukraine is not worth a drop of American blood.

 

 

It 100% is appeasement, but that doesn't mean you have to go to a full blown war with Russia for fear of being called Neville. Ukraine has 7 times the population of all the Baltic states combined so you need to do something. Sending in thousands of US soldiers isn't the answer as they aren't EU or NATO and we don't have the stomach for it now either.

However, there are 30 million or so Ukrainians who want nothing to do with being Russian and their youth have stronger cultural ties to the West than they do Russia. Also for the first time since the Cold War, liberal democracy is under attack all across the globe. Are we still the one to fight for that or is it now the world of Putin, Xi, and Orban?

 

I think you do your best to destroy the Russian economy, which as I understand it has put in more sanction proofing measures since 2014 so that's tougher to do. Also you have to arm the Ukrainians as best as possible so that they can do something which it seems like we're doing to some small degree. It might be time to bring back some of our most advanced Cold War fuckery outside of installing people like Pinochet.

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7 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Don’t fucking do it.

Don't send our troops to countries like Estonia that are EU and NATO members? A country that has already donated supplies to Ukraine and called up their limited forces? Those are the exact people you DO send soldier to right now.

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18 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Reminds me of what a buddy told me when he was in Kuwait. "We don't move this many people and all this equipment just for show." If Putin was going for a diplomatic victory he may have overplayed on the home front. I think they are going in. 

If Putin pulls off Ukraine he goes for the Baltic. There is some interesting stuff on Twitter about the movement of more equipment into Western Russia. Serious stuff, like main battle tanks. But also all the support apparatus you need to sustain them. 

@Shady Ray I realize the EU is in a jam due to their reliance on Russian energy, but do they realize it is a weapon against their head unless they stand up at some time? And I really appreciate your posts. Please keep them up. 

 

There are definitely different positions depending on country. Germany obviously is the most dependent on Russian fuel, while many of the others have existing coal/nuclear capabilities which of course results in different outlooks.
 

From the German perspective, it is much more layered than simply viewing it as a gun to the head and is actually really complicated, but I am stuck in a four hour call that I have nothing whatsoever to do with, so I will give it a shot.

 

The Germans have been buying fuel from Russia since the first half of the Brezhnev era, with a huge increase in the percentage of total energy supply starting in the early 80s and continuing to date, so this is simply part of economic life here. And not only has the fuel been reliably supplied, the transactional relationship between the two countries is highly functioning and could even be classified as “excellent”. The Russians know how to sell gas, and the Germans know how to buy gas, and most importantly, the Russians and Germans know how get deals done with each other (and that is not just in the energy sector). So, regardless of what has been going on in the larger geopolitical world, for 50 years, this bilateral trading relationship has not suffered, and, in fact, has only become more streamlined and workable. So in that light, there is comfort in past performance and there is not a widespread fear that Russia would be predatory to us…and that remains the view of most Germans even in light of current events.
 

WRT the immediate circumstance, the entire “gun to the head” calculus depends on how you view Putin’s objectives here. The US foreign policy establishment/media seems to wholeheartedly believe that Ukraine would simply be the first domino to fall on Russia’s path to reconstituting the USSR. In Germany, very few people believe this…in the government or in the citizenry. And I would say this is the case elsewhere in Western Europe. In fact, the idea that Russia is going to even try to occupy Ukraine is widely seen as absurd. That’s the real reason why Admiral Schönbach’s video and subsequent dismissal was so significant…it wasn’t that he was presenting a viewpoint contrary to the German political class, it was that he was saying the actual viewpoint of the political class out loud, for all the world to see. And everyone here knows that he was. And the headlines from the big national papers here today have been very, very supportive of him for speaking what the Germans believe to be the truth. 


The German people understand completely that the media class and the political class do a song and dance for the international stage that is not an actual representation of how they will act in the form of public policy. So as long as the actions of the government remain neutral or positive towards maintaining the status quo, which in this case is reliable supply from Russia, the talking heads and politicians can do what they want to keep Brussels or DC off their backs. And of course, all political power flows from the electorate, and so that is what ultimately matters. For all the stereotypes of Germans being matter-of-fact, plain spoken and orderly, they are a very sophisticated electorate and there are certain blurred social constructs between the politicians, media and electorate that are just baked into the culture. We are seeing this play out now in the "wink and nod" that accompany every political statement…”We absolutely respect Ukrainian sovereignty and NATO, while also understanding that diplomacy and our economic ties with Russia are blah blah blah…”. That “while also” is what the Germans pay attention to. They don’t give a shit about what Scholz has to say publicly to keep the country from being called Nazis in the UK tabloids.

 

Now, at the risk delving too much into the dry world of German political analysis, I think understanding the situation here will be important in following the developments in Europe over the next two weeks, because the whole "Germany is scared and caught in the headlights" narrative that the US talk shows like to claim is completely and totally regarded. Germany knows EXACTLY what it is doing here. It just happens to be opposing the US stronger than it has in recent memory.

 

In my professional capacity which involves a lot of tea leaf reading in Brussels and Berlin, we are deeply plugged into tracking the unique machinations of the German political/media apparatus and how it works. Our industry is very regulated and susceptible to domestic and EU political trends, which are constantly monitored, as those trends determine a lot of things internally for the company. Given the infinitely more complex political calculus of a multi-party parliamentary system, opposition political parties here do not just instinctively oppose every position of the other side, which is noticeably the case in the US. However, in Germany, you will frequently see opposition parties actively supporting the government position in efforts to stay aligned with the expectations of their respective constituencies, and, just as importantly for the mainline parties, to prevent the fringe party from their respective right/left flank from stealing support on a particularly popular issue (AfD on the far-right, die Linke from the left as successors to the old DDR communists). 

 

So in formulating our own govt relations strategy in a certain situation, “we use this one simple trick that all our reptilian overlords hate”: the single best way to determine the political mood of the country is to follow the behavior of whichever centrist/mainline opposition party is out-of-power. That’s all you need to do to determine which direction the debate is trending. And over the last two days here, it is undeniable that the main opposition, the Center-Right Christian Democrats/Social Union, are not only supporting their rival Social Democratic Party of Germany government in word and deed on the Ukraine issue, but they are providing their rivals with political cover to continue down this path of being “non-aligned” as long as he needs it in order to keep this from negatively impacting Germany. This isn’t because they are nice, cooperative guys…it is because the position of the German people in the privacy of their own homes are absolutely opposed to upsetting this particular status quo. And if the status quo is going to change, it will be due to Germany's efforts and Germany's timeline, not by an external force like the US or Ukraine. And in the German eye, this is not an EU issue. This is not a NATO issue. This is a Russian and Ukrainian issue and so long as it stays there, there really could not be fewer fucks given. 

 

And that brings me to a really important issue that stays out of the media due to the hesitancy of the German political/media class to risk being castigated in the international press: The German people do not see Ukraine as a friend, ally or “partner” in any way. And certainly not in any way more than Russia. Russia may not be a friend or an ally, but they are absolutely a “partner” in the German mind. Ukraine is none of those three things. The Germans NEVER wanted Ukraine in NATO, and even pushed publicly that the 2008 Bucharest announcement never occur, but they allowed themselves to be overruled by the Americans and Brits at the time. They are NEVER going to allow them into the EU. They absolutely didn’t support weapons systems in the east, and so the US did it outside of the alliance. And at each step of the way they said, “You are going to create a situation for war over there”…and every time it was done anyway. So now, here we are, and in the German mind, correctly or not, they were right and that what they absolutely predicted in continuing to expand towards Russia has come true, and yet the Americans now expect Germany to escalate even more. That simply is not going to happen, and I estimate that if the US continues to push the Germans in the public sphere you are going to see the Germans become much, much bolder in voicing this position, risking the perception of a unified West even more.

 

Plus, Ukraine has an abhorrent PR strategy with respect to Germany...I cannot count how many times they have brought up National Socialism in response to being declined German weapons. It has happened regularly for years, and it is a terrible strategy. "No guns from you, Germans? ok then, you children of nazis!" is not a good strategic angle. Their Ambassador to Germany threw it out publicly twice last week, and their Foreign Minister did the same. Every time they do it, the response amongst Germans is one of complete disgust and deeper commitment to letting them fend for themselves on other items like foreign direct aid, which they COMPLETELY depend on. You cannot bulldoze a German...they are relentlessly stubborn and self-deferential people.

 

So the question that actually came up here yesterday on some of the political talk shows reflects this: "If we all know that they aren't anywhere close to meeting minimum requirements of joining NATO anytime soon, and if they have continued their corruption and wholesale theft of our gas and the infrastructure funds we have provided them year after year, and if agreeing to our already existing position of not allowing them to join will prevent a potential land war a few hours away, then why aren't we open to formalizing this?"
 

The “worst case scenario” that is discussed here is what I personally believe to be a highly likely outcome if it ever actually goes hot: Russia will use such a situation to demonstrate overwhelming full-spectrum dominance on its southwestern flank as a message to the West, and it will then impose neutrality upon Ukraine as a condition for Russia not continuing to completely destroy the infrastructure and the remaining functionality of the Ukrainian state and Russian withdrawal from hostilities. Russia will impose neutrality, formalized federalized autonomy for the Donbass (but NOT independence), and an updated understanding with the West relating to Black Sea drills…all in exchange for Kiev’s understanding and the American acknowledgment that this is the price for peace in Ukraine. And the dirty little secret here is that this is a result that Berlin and Paris and many of the smaller EU entities in their orbit like Austria and the Netherlands would absolutely support if hostilities actually kicked off. 
 


So, in light of my earlier point re opposition behavior, here is the translation of yesterday’s statement "on the record"of Markus Söder in the widely-ready Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Söder is the very powerful Minister President (governor/resident king) of Bavaria. For context, if not for the fact that Söder is a Bavarian, he would be the current Chancellor. There is a semi-formal agreement between the Bavarian Christian Social Union and the larger, federal Christian Democratic Union, that Bavarians have their own independent Christian Democratic Party in exchange for not running for the Federal Chancellery. But that said, he is extremely, extremely popular nationally and is one of the top 2 power-brokers in the overall infrastructure of the German Center-Right and is certainly an atlanticist to some degree.

 

As you can see, he's now moving towards a Russian position on Ukrainian membership in NATO...the Germans will never openly support an open-ended ban on Ukrainian accession, but with Söder saying this, I would guess that they are signaling the overall openness of the Germans to a loooong term, formalized pause on NATO expansion.
 

Quote

 

Markus Söder: Russia is not an enemy of Europe

Markus Söder demands prudence for sanctions against Russia. He does not see Ukraine in NATO and he wants to put Nord Stream II into operation in any case.

Prime Minister, Russia is having soldiers march around Ukraine. What should we do?


"It is a serious situation when conflicts intensify at the borders of Europe. The most important thing is: We must reject aggression and avoid escalation. Nobody wants a war in Europe. The territorial integrity and international independence of Ukraine must be respected. But constantly new threats and increasingly harsh sanctions against Russia cannot be the solution alone. On the one hand, because sanctions have hardly had any effect for a long time and on the other hand because these new sanctions would often harm ourselves as much. For example, an exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT financial system. Keeping the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline closed or even stopping all gas supplies from Russia in general would also affect our country. Even in the worst period of the Cold War, there was no questioning of the energy connection between the Soviet Union and Germany. Despite all the justified criticism of Russia, the West must at some point answer the key question: Is NATO enlargement to include Ukraine planned or not? You certainly must not let Russia dictate you here. But you still have to give an answer. In my view, it is clear that NATO's eastward enlargement to include Ukraine will not be on the agenda for a long time to come."

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/markus-soeder-russland-ist-kein-feind-europas-17744426.html

 

 

 

The significance of this is that now Söder, along with the head of the larger Germany-wide Christian Democrats, Freidrich Merz, have now formally come out telling the government that they will not face any organized political fall-out in continuing to dig their heels in. And, in the alternative, if they bow to American pressure here, they'll have nowhere to run for PR cover domestically.

 

This is hugely important support to a new coalition that is far from stable. 

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1 hour ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

💯 

This just seems like a recipe for disaster. We seem to care more about all this than the Europeans even do. 

UK has sent supplies and are calling for devastating sanctions if Russia is to invade. Also plenty of other countries are doing their bit where possible. 

 

Quote

Members of the Nato alliance, including Denmark, Spain, Bulgaria and the Netherlands, are sending more fighter jets and warships to Eastern Europe to bolster defences in the region. 

Also:

The NATO announcement about sending troops and equipment on Monday consolidated statements that member states have made over the last several days. They include an offer by France to send troops to Romania under NATO command

 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Probably too late but if western countries threatened to pull out of the Olympics given the obvious war that is about to start, Xi and China would tell Putin to back off Ukraine. And he would.

I don’t think Putin cares.   It feels like there’s something going on behind the scenes that everybody is missing, that’s driving all of this.  

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4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Muslim north Caucasians speak perfect Russian and most of them don't look any different than a Russian.  Plus, there are tons of Chechens, Dagestanis, Ingush, etc. in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other big Russian cities already anyway.  They're more than capable of pulling off this type of stuff and have done so plenty of times in the past.

Below is Ramzan Kadyrov, the president of semi-autonomous Chechnya and a go-to for Putin's dirty work when he wants someone knocked off somewhere and doesn't feel like opening the biohazard vaults. Shave his beard and he looks just like any of the millions of burly "sportsmen" types wandering around European Russia.

 

Kadyrov says 74,000 Chechens 'ready to go to Ukraine'

But does he own a track suit?

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46 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don’t think Putin cares.   It feels like there’s something going on behind the scenes that everybody is missing, that’s driving all of this.  

Putin wants a defensible border and to engender a strong and unified republic.  Georgia is on deck.  Taiwan should be on notice as well.  

Putin seems to be taking advantage of obvious situations.  A war-weary West.  Endless internal political squabbling & waffling, a global pandemic and and obvious looming energy concerns.  Europe is is disarray and Putin is acting.  

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2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Putin wants a defensible border and to engender a strong and unified republic.  Georgia is on deck.  Taiwan should be on notice as well.  

Putin seems to be taking advantage of obvious situations.  A war-weary West.  Endless internal political squabbling & waffling, a global pandemic and and obvious looming energy concerns.  Europe is is disarray and Putin is acting.  

A “defensible border”.  For a nation with thousands of nukes.  Nobody is going to invade Russia.  

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Just now, atomheartbevo said:

A “defensible border”.  For a nation with thousands of nukes.  Nobody is going to invade Russia.  

Then why was Putin and the rest of the Russian leaders so freaked out about Ukraine as a member of NATO?  Or are we going to just ignore thousands of years of Russian anxiety about invasion after invasion after invasion.

 

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Parliamentarians of 11 countries issued a joint statement on the entry of Russian troops into Belarus. The statement says that the deployment of Russian troops in Belarus not only poses a threat to Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania, but could also be a part of a plan to occupy Belarus

Lol at Russia occupying what they already own.

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4 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Then why was Putin and the rest of the Russian leaders so freaked out about Ukraine as a member of NATO?  Or are we going to just ignore thousands of years of Russian anxiety about invasion after invasion after invasion.

 

Russia is freaked out about the idea of Ukraine in NATO because then he wouldn’t be able to fuck it up whenever he chooses, and because he is terrified at the what kind of ideas his own citizens might get if a large Slavic former Republic managed to pull its shit together and prove that you don’t really need a strong leader.

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I'll admit I'm about up to speed on the whole Ukraine thing as I am on Paraguayan subsidies.  But America's concern with a Russian invasion into Ukraine has a domino-theory feel to it, far from our past foreign conflicts like the Persian Gulf War ("Hey, that's our oil supply!") or the War in Afghanistan ("Hey, you fuckers attacked us!").

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CzechRepublic MoD @jana_cernochova: "Let me be clear, Ukraine is our ally. If there is war, we are ready to offer a refuge to their woman and children. No Ukrainian request for sending military yet, but if they do so, we will discuss it." Source: Interview for @enkocz

Interesting words from the beer drinkers. I wonder if that wasn't lost in translation and they actually mean military aid and not "sending military" as it means in American English.

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1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

Interesting words from the beer drinkers. I wonder if that wasn't lost in translation and they actually mean military aid and not "sending military" as it means in American English.

It means the Czechs would consider sending troops.  They’ve already sent munitions. 

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They've been in Ukraine's shoes twice before, so not surprising.  And this is definitely appeasement and will work out just like the previous times.  Assholes like Putin never stop at one country.

Edited by kevwun
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8 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I'll admit I'm about up to speed on the whole Ukraine thing as I am on Paraguayan subsidies.  But America's concern with a Russian invasion into Ukraine has a domino-theory feel to it, far from our past foreign conflicts like the Persian Gulf War ("Hey, that's our oil supply!") or the War in Afghanistan ("Hey, you fuckers attacked us!").

I think it's Putin taking advantage of a west is disarray.  This isn't exactly a new topic.  Going back to 1990 and Ukraine declaring sovereignty, you have START, the Minsk agreement, the Lisbon Protocol, the trilateral statement, the Massandra accords, all the way up to Russia annexing the Crimean peninsula.  

Russia wants it's territory back and always has.  I think they see this as the perfect time to challenge for it as they've gone the diplomatic route for decades with no real progress.  

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7 minutes ago, kevwun said:

 Assholes like Putin never stop at one country.

I think that's true, but there isn't much out there that people "care about" (Europe) that is up for grabs. He could take Transnistria, but they're already in his sphere anyway. The only other viable option that people would put up a big stink would be Kazakhstan with their resources.

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9 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

That would be wild

Well, it is one new minister and this is a departure from what they’ve said before (and for that matter, they are sprinting ahead of the U.S.).

But the Russians have no friends in Prague and the Czechs are pissed. It didn’t make as much noise as it should have in the U.S., but last spring the Czechs announced that the Russian GRU had blown up a munitions dump and killed two Czechs in the process back in 2014.  They shut down nearly the whole Russian embassy. In return, the Russians released a “unfriendly nations” list that includes two countries— the U.S. and Czech Republic.

The current government is pretty hawkish on Russia and China and doesn’t want to get lumped in with the big continental players that seem to be interested in appeasement. 

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8 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I think that's true, but there isn't much out there that people "care about" (Europe) that is up for grabs. He could take Transnistria, but they're already in his sphere anyway. The only other viable option that people would put up a big stink would be Kazakhstan with their resources.

The problem is that his ambitions are going to grow exponentially every time he gets away with this.  This will be twice now.  Suddenly moves he never even considered start seeming possible.  Relying on "They would never make a move on Country X"  doesn't work.  It's the diplomatic equivalent of wish in one hand and shit in the other.

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  • immamac changed the title to Russia declares independence on behalf of the Ukraine so it can protect the Ukraine or something like that
  • immamac changed the title to Русский корабль - иди нахуй

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