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Markets still falling like whoa


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18 minutes ago, Blotto said:

There is gonna be some obscene profits on NFLX puts this week. 

And an even more extreme carnage from NFLX calls. 
 

I don’t make predictions like this often but this is a definite buying opportunity. Implementation of a deterrent to account sharing, along with the introduction of a lower cost, ad supported tier,  will result in millions of new subscribers. 

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Never been a huge fan of Netflix as a stock.  They don’t inherently own anything like the other platforms so they have to spend huge amounts of money to own it.  Also, a lot of their stuff is kind of average.  I know they can’t all be winners but there isn’t enough content to where you must keep your subscription all year.  I find myself not watching for long periods of time.

Also, why haven’t they dealt with subscription sharing until now?

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Netflix has crappy original content and costs $15 to get 2 multiple streams in HD. You can get Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ for a $15 bundle. HBO Max is $15/mo and the new Batman movie is already on the platform. Paramount+ & Showtime bundle is around $12.

Paying $15 for Netflix to watch original content like “The Ultimatum” and “Is It Cake?” is not a good deal. Unless you love watching House of Cards reruns and the deep catalog of Adam Sandler and David Spade films.

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38 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Not a fan of a stock that’s up 18,000% in 20 years because it’s down from +60,000%? 

Its all about timing and valuation. the competitive landscape for NFLX now is much different than it was 20 years ago. Really until the last 5 years they didnt have much competition, but they certainly do now. And much of the content they used to be able to provide has now been removed in favor of other platforms (Disney content etc...). They borrow a shit ton of money to produce their content and worry about paying that off in the future, fueled by subscription growth. If your subscriptions arent really growing, and you hit a ceiling on what you charge based on competitive offerings, your business model starts to leak oil. You feel they are ready to embark on a new round of explosive subscription growth, and if you are correct, its probably a good time to buy. I have my doubts. 

 

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Netflix cracking down on password sharing looks desperate for their business model. Password sharing is a sign of growth and should be viewed as “all publicity is good publicity” to reach more viewers even if they aren’t technically paying. If people share passwords, it’s because they want to see Netflix content. Nobody is asking for my PBS Plus password to watch back episodes of Nova. 

And if Netflix thinks they can charge more for password sharing, they need to realize this isn’t 2005 where people are more than willing to pay $20 extra to move their cellular unlimited time from 9PM to 7PM. 

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my individual stocks today:

 

AMD - red

AMZN - red

BE - red

CRM - red

FCEL - red

KO - green

MRNA - red

PFE - red

PYPL - red

SQ - red

TWTR - red

WDAY - red

 

my etfs

ICLN - red (truly a garbage fund)

SPY - green

VDE - green

VO- green

VOO - green

VTI - green

VTWO - green

VV- green 

VXF - green

 

 

Anchor Man Ron Burgundy GIF - Anchor Man Ron Burgundy Ron GIFs

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20 hours ago, MrBig said:

Netflix cracking down on password sharing looks desperate for their business model. Password sharing is a sign of growth and should be viewed as “all publicity is good publicity” to reach more viewers even if they aren’t technically paying. If people share passwords, it’s because they want to see Netflix content. Nobody is asking for my PBS Plus password to watch back episodes of Nova. 

And if Netflix thinks they can charge more for password sharing, they need to realize this isn’t 2005 where people are more than willing to pay $20 extra to move their cellular unlimited time from 9PM to 7PM. 

Initially in a growth market and land rush, password sharing is a positive indicator and free eyeballs, etc. as you suggest.

However, in a more mature category now, it's a liability. Specifically, "Netflix estimates that “over 100 million” households worldwide are using shared Netflix accounts, including more than 30 million in the U.S. and Canada." according to their earning call.

That is a ton of meat on the bone and essentially giving away your service. Putting some guardrails in place for the password sharing that is rampant (e.g. not inner-household) seems like it's way overdue.

That said, Netflix needs to do something transformational (again) in the next 2-3 years or they will be toast IMO.

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21 hours ago, Blotto said:

Its all about timing and valuation. the competitive landscape for NFLX now is much different than it was 20 years ago. Really until the last 5 years they didnt have much competition, but they certainly do now. And much of the content they used to be able to provide has now been removed in favor of other platforms (Disney content etc...). They borrow a shit ton of money to produce their content and worry about paying that off in the future, fueled by subscription growth. If your subscriptions arent really growing, and you hit a ceiling on what you charge based on competitive offerings, your business model starts to leak oil. You feel they are ready to embark on a new round of explosive subscription growth, and if you are correct, its probably a good time to buy. I have my doubts. 

 

As Twitter said it best: "This is what happens when a growth stock stops growing". 

We have a lot of these in the tech space. It could get ugly one day for that sector. For now, it's ugly for NFLX

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Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

They should have stores where you can rent videos. They could sell popcorn/candy etc. It's a blockbuster of an idea.

I was thinking more of gaming, which I think they are looking at. Maybe AR/VR to bring multi-media to life in the home or something. I don't know, but at some point the churn will kill them if they don't figure it out, I think.

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2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i grabbed some tsla yesterday betting the earnings would surpass.  now i want to get rid of it and take the cash.  i can't do that until the settlement date?

You can, but just don't try and trade that unsettled cash again for a few days or you can get flagged.  

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5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i grabbed some tsla yesterday betting the earnings would surpass.  now i want to get rid of it and take the cash.  i can't do that until the settlement date?

You can sell a stock 15 minutes after you buy it, the settlement date limits what you can do with the proceeds of the sale I believe. Here's what uncle chuck has to say on the matter

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/stock-settlement-why-you-need-to-understand-t2-timeline

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looks like i'm good.  i went to my bank account, transferred the amount i needed over, then purchased on vanguard immediately.  it looks like that is not freeriding because the cash will get there before the settlement date, correct?

Quote

Freeriding violations occur when you buy a security in a cash account that lacks sufficient settled funds and then sell the same security before depositing funds to pay for its purchase. This violation can occur whether the purchase and sale occur on the same day or on different days. 

  • The situation: 
    • Mr. Smith starts the day with $100 of settled cash in his account, and buys $1,000 of XYZ stock. The remaining $900 needed to cover the trade is due by the settlement date on T+2.
    • The next day, Mr. Smith still hasn't deposited the outstanding $900 he owes, but sells his XYZ shares for $1,500.
  • The violation: Mr. Smith sold stock before paying for its purchase.
  • The consequence: Industry regulations require the brokerage firm to freeze the account for 90 days, during which time trading is restricted to the amount of settled funds available. (At its discretion, Schwab may impose permanent restrictions or account closures.)
  • Schwab cannot waive this restriction. However, if funds are deposited within the payment period to cover the entire purchasegenerally four business days after the trade datethe violation may be downgraded to a good faith violation

 

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12 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

No idea how that would work. Most gaming companies go thru Microsoft (Xbox) or Sony (Playstation) to sell their products. Can't imagine displacing them without the console to support it.

Its so simple, maybe you need a refresher course. Netflix will partner with Gamestop and AMC to create a gaming portal leveraging blockchain technologies, ball bearings, and gauze pads which in turn will unleash unrealized profits from emerging NFT markets.

 

🚀🚀🚀

 

 

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8 hours ago, Blotto said:

Its so simple, maybe you need a refresher course. Netflix will partner with Gamestop and AMC to create a gaming portal leveraging blockchain technologies, ball bearings, and gauze pads which in turn will unleash unrealized profits from emerging NFT markets.

 

🚀🚀🚀

 

 

You forgot the drones.

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8 minutes ago, bluto said:

If ya wanna tank growth/tech/speculation plays with this meltdown fine, makes sense. But how the duck is energy getting caught up in this with underlying commodities at 5 and 10 yr highs

What energy stocks are melting down?  I don't have a lot of energy stocks (unfortunately) but my two largest holdings (EOG, LNG) are up 30%+ YTD. I also have some CEQP (MLP) that I hold onto because it pays me a pretty regular 25% dividend off of my entry price in 2016, and even it has held up pretty well. they arent at all time highs, but they are far outperforming most of the rest of my portfolio. 

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My accounts are proof the professionals know as much as the amateurs. We made a good chunk selling a house in Austin and buying in Houston in 2021. Inflation signs say don’t hold cash. Peak real estate prices say don’t buy real estate. Market seems fakely high but TINA right? Merrill Lynch boys had a great plan to only put in 10-15% of our money a month to protect against a sudden market downturn but catch some gains before the inevitable correction. Also lots of bullshit about hedging with some investments that perform opposite the market, and buying aggressive on the undervalued downturned shit. FML we are down 8.5% from our original cash deposit in spite of some of the money only being invested the last month or two. Anyone want to interest me Pampered Chef or speakers out of a van to invest in? I would’ve been better off buying some bonds and a new Bronco. 

Edited by Murfdogg21
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49 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

My accounts are proof the professionals know as much as the amateurs. We made a good chunk selling a house in Austin and buying in Houston in 2021. Inflation signs say don’t hold cash. Peak real estate prices say don’t buy real estate. Market seems fakely high but TINA right? Merrill Lynch boys had a great plan to only put in 10-15% of our money a month to protect against a sudden market downturn but catch some gains before the inevitable correction. Also lots of bullshit about hedging with some investments that perform opposite the market, and buying aggressive on the undervalued downturned shit. FML we are down 8.5% from our original cash deposit in spite of some of the money only being invested the last month or two. Anyone want to interest me Pampered Chef or speakers out of a van to invest in? I would’ve been better off buying some bonds and a new Bronco. 

wow youre a pussy. Nasdaq is down close to 20% YTD. You deserve to sweat. 

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8 minutes ago, ATexanAbroad said:

wow youre a pussy. Nasdaq is down close to 20% YTD. You deserve to sweat. 

I didn’t say I was sweating, just bitching that my professional manager seems to perform worse than the surly stonk gods. But rolling in that new Bronco would’ve been nice. 

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3 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

I didn’t say I was sweating, just bitching that my professional manager seems to perform worse than the surly stonk gods. But rolling in that new Bronco would’ve been nice. 

Your 8% down is down less than the overall indexes. You sold a house for a profit and bought another one. Do you think that professionals are suppose to be up 20% while the markets are down 20%? What is wrong with you. And are you retiring in the next 3 years? If not shut the fuck up and keep buying while diversifying. You are the person that every financial professional hates having to work with. 

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