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Markets still falling like whoa


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what's the point of a stock that never changes value.  i grabbed a few shares of three random stocks because i want to test a new theory (i call it 'buy low, sell high'.  just came up with that).  so i got the first 3 alphabetical stocks.  one of them is AAC.  it's been around since 3/21 and has a high of 9.96 and a low of 9.67.  right now it is 9.82.  so dumb.  it's just a checking account.

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16 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

what's the point of a stock that never changes value.  i grabbed a few shares of three random stocks because i want to test a new theory (i call it 'buy low, sell high'.  just came up with that).  so i got the first 3 alphabetical stocks.  one of them is AAC.  it's been around since 3/21 and has a high of 9.96 and a low of 9.67.  right now it is 9.82.  so dumb.  it's just a checking account.

Looks like AAC is a SPAC just waiting for a deal. It has no actual business operations.

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Food, rent, utilities, and gas arent getting marked down, and thats a good chunk of a lot of peoples expenses. Short term what they cant afford will go on credit cards, but if they arent paying the balance in full, they are just exacerbating the pain. I assume that average credit card APR will trend up with all other interest rates

Quote

To keep up with rising prices, many consumers are leaning on their credit cards.

Credit card balances rose year over year, reaching $841 billion in the first three months of 2022, according to data released Tuesday from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Although balances fell slightly from where they stood at the end of 2021 following the peak holiday shopping season, they are expected to keep going up from here, according to researchers at the New York Fed. 

“There’s a good chance that Americans’ total credit card balances will soon reach a new record high, marking a sharp reversal from the precipitous drop that occurred in 2020 and early 2021,” said Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at CreditCards.com.

 

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32 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

If the economy is supposedly tanking and retailers are having to mark everything down, shouldn't that take care of inflation?

Eventually.   But not until after layoffs, bankruptcies, foreclosures and a host of other things have ripped through.   

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42 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

If the economy is supposedly tanking and retailers are having to mark everything down, shouldn't that take care of inflation?

Well there is the small matter of $2,162,924,000,000 of idle cash sitting in reverse repo markets that's ballooned since 2021. That's going to take a ton of time to unwind and stymie any effort to combat inflation.

That giant dragon's hoard of luchre isn't going to be given up easily by the banks that hold it, and it DEFINITELY won't be used to help normalize pay either

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14 minutes ago, maninblack said:

No, I meant they're not going to be able to get this under control with these hikes.

0.75+0.75+0.5 = 2%.. That ain't going to be enough in my eyes.

In the past when we had these types of inflationary headwinds and full-on stagflation we hit double digits. Here we are looking at topping somewhere in the 3's. I just don't see it.

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2 minutes ago, Blotto said:

jesus, what did Jpow say that caused the market to spike a good 30 minutes after the number was released? 

Everyone priced in a .75 rate hike and many hedged that if they came in lower the fed feared the market couldn't withstand the impact of trying to actively tame inflation by raising rates as fast as needed.

 

In truth, I still think this is all algo driven that always pop on correlated news of market and fed expectations amd so they execute their late buy orders and then it tampers down on the after-hours and resets. 

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20 minutes ago, Blotto said:

jesus, what did Jpow say that caused the market to spike a good 30 minutes after the number was released?

Probably just some hedging getting caught offsides. Going to be a few days before we really know how the market takes this. 

Stock market that is. 

Edited by bullzak
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1 hour ago, maninblack said:

They have no control over this. 

Well,…they do. But it’s not like steering an automobile. It’s more like maneuvering a boat with a rudder. It takes a steady hand, lots of patience and constant monitoring with no interference. 
 
(Controlling an economy with Keynesian policies, on the other hand, is more like steering your bumper car from one corner of the rink to the other- yes, you’ll get there, but there will be a whole lot of wasted effort with some incidental damage on the way). 

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13 hours ago, maninblack said:

They have no control over this. 

12 hours ago, bullzak said:

Youre saying the fed doesnt control interest rates? Hmmm. 

I might not agree with the magnitude and velocity of their decisions, but their analysis and communication are all correct: theyre still beholden to the mandate of employment level; they dont have a direct lever to all contributors of inflation - the war and supply side clog was both unforesoon and expected to be temporary.  and finally they didnt initiate the deficit spending, they had to absorb it. 

nobody is fixing it overnight, but while the elected leaders are throwing rhetoric around, atleast the fed is being adults about it.

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12 hours ago, Blotto said:

jesus, what did Jpow say that caused the market to spike a good 30 minutes after the number was released? 

 

12 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

Everyone priced in a .75 rate hike and many hedged that if they came in lower the fed feared the market couldn't withstand the impact of trying to actively tame inflation by raising rates as fast as needed.

 

In truth, I still think this is all algo driven that always pop on correlated news of market and fed expectations amd so they execute their late buy orders and then it tampers down on the after-hours and resets. 

30 mins after every rate decision publication there's a press conference where the chairman gives his remarks and then has a q&a session after.  lasts about an hour. 

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30 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Shutting down global economies and the effect on supply issues was unforeseen? 

those are externalities to the fed.

they didnt create the virus and doesnt have the scope to control shutdowns.

they could/should have done more, but otoh should not overreach to 'cover' forces largely not of their doing.  powell's environment isn't the same as volcker's environment. 

all said, given we're in the same state, atleast it's not deflectively described's as 'putins inflation' or 'krogers price hike' or whatever the boogeyman du jour is.

Edited by 52-80
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I don't see it that way. The FED is the umpire. They don't control the pitches being thrown, but they can call balls & strikes.

Let's face it, the FED should have stopped QE YEARS ago. They should have warned that shutting down the economy and printing cash would have consequences. Maybe they did and the elected officials in charge ignored them, but here we are. I'm not blaming the FED, I'm blaming the people who control the FED.

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21 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Let's face it, the FED should have stopped QE YEARS ago. They should have warned that shutting down the economy and printing cash would have consequences. Maybe they did and the elected officials in charge ignored them, but here we are. I'm not blaming the FED, I'm blaming the people who control the FED.

You're telling me that pumping stimulus into the economy by way of massive corporate and ultrawealthy tax cuts, while in a historically hot economy, may not have been the best move? Say it ain't so, basil!

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13 minutes ago, Captainant said:

You're telling me that pumping stimulus into the economy by way of massive corporate and ultrawealthy tax cuts, while in a historically hot economy, may not have been the best move? Say it ain't so, basil!

Shocking, isn't it. We mess with basic economic principals and then are shocked when things go sideways.

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48 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

footnote (x) - we are already in a recession, it will just take the Fed 6-9 months to recognize it; and another 12 months to react.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out without the typical  unemployment pressures normally associated with recessions. 

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