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2021 Rain Thread


South Austin

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12 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Ever had the lightning strike so close, that you couldn't hear the initial thunderclap because the sound wave generated outside of the sphere of space that you shared with the lightning? That happened to us last night. 

We had a storm like that a few weeks ago.  There had to have been 1-20 of them within  my neighborhood.  They shook the windows they were so close.  I didn't even want to go on the porch which s something I usually love to do during storms. 

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36 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Update:

Not much change to the forecast, Round 1 did its job.

The only change from my post yesterday is that the systems are moving slower than at first, so the 2nd system will move in late Thursday, not late tonight.

Today rain still lingers, but the sun should actually come out afternoon.
Thursday, not today, is our dry "break" day.
Friday/Saturday are the big rain days.  Could see 2-3 more inches easily widespread.

ACL looking more and more like a humid, smelly, muddy mess - if they don't axe some of each day entirely.

What about MotoGP at COTA on Sunday? Good to race or nahh?

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On 9/27/2021 at 9:30 AM, utee94 said:

This one looks like a Forcefield special to me.  3+" forecast as of today, by Wednesday it'll be 2", and by Saturday morning the only place within 15 miles of downtown Austin to receive any rain at all, will of course be, Bee Cave. ;)

 

 

It's possible... that I was wrong.

3.6" at my house in NW Travis.

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1 hour ago, NorthLoop said:

Ever had the lightning strike so close, that you couldn't hear the initial thunderclap because the sound wave generated outside of the sphere of space that you shared with the lightning? That happened to us last night. 

I was out for a job this morning along Shoal Creek, and saw a tree around 38th Street that appeared to have been hit by lightning.  If so, I think it was one of the ones we heard last night.

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3 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Ever had the lightning strike so close, that you couldn't hear the initial thunderclap because the sound wave generated outside of the sphere of space that you shared with the lightning? That happened to us last night. 

Yep.  That's when you can feel the actual electricity from the bolt.  Happened to me last year on the first day of the Snowmageddon.  

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3 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Ever had the lightning strike so close, that you couldn't hear the initial thunderclap because the sound wave generated outside of the sphere of space that you shared with the lightning? That happened to us last night. 

About a month ago same shit happened to me. Never heard thunder but just a bright flash with a simultaneous cracking noise. All of my shit that was on surge protectors was fine,but my cable modem and wireless router were fried. Replaced both of those and still no internet. Service guy came out and traced the issue to some of the wiring and a splitter in my attic. Guessing lightening hit the closest spectrum cable pole. 

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Up until like 4 years ago, I thought he was shouting "RAMPARTS!" like the national anthem.  Turns out only complete fucking idiots like myself can't use the word ramparts correctly.  

As for ACL.  Some good news for you revelers, was with the co-producer of the event (#4 guy at C3 Presents) for coffee and lies.  As of today, they ain't canceling shit.  going full bore.  No delays, just discomfort.  They just had to cancel the Post Malone festival in Arlington for Halloween weekend and they gotta make up the money somehow.  ACL full steam ahead.  I'm going second weekend though, gonna be too much of a clusterfuck this weekend between checking vacc cards/neg tests and the rain.  But my lawn already looks like it got a handjob from MILF Nature. 

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39 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I am currently in Georgetown and it is clear blue skies and about 80 degrees.

As such, I just changed my tee time for 4:00 tomorrow to 4:08 this afternoon.

Did I just fuck myself?

I doubt it. Rain is gone till at least tomorrow afternoon.

I've been struck by lightning, hasn't everyone?

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15 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

Creek behind the house was running at 2 cfs at last reading a couple hours ago. Gonna guess it’s close to 100 right now and the rain is still slowly increasing. Lookin like a good day to kayak tomorrow!

Only got up to 70cfs. Sadly not enough to kayak. But a solid 2.5" in the gauge. I'll take that any day!

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On 9/26/2021 at 7:12 PM, Biff Tannen said:

So not Roy Kent then?

Also, ACL gonna be a muddy mess. 

 

On 9/27/2021 at 5:37 PM, SquishMitten said:


At least there won’t be idiots doing slip-n-slide in dillo dirt

 

18 hours ago, ztejas said:

Looks like we'll get it nice and muddy right before ACL.

 

18 hours ago, Anastasis said:

That is not mud. 

 

17 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

jurassic park deal with it GIF

 

15 hours ago, Ewreck10 said:

I’ll never forget the year they put Dillo Dirt in Zilker right before ACL years ago only to have it rain right before and during the festival. Watching drunk/high patrons running and sliding head first in that sludge was pretty disgusting. 
 

 

 

13 hours ago, ztejas said:

Yes. That would be the reference. 

C'mon people. The statement was made, then the reference to frolicking in poop was made. Then the comment was made again, and the reference about scat play was made 3 more times. Get yer shit together!

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5 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Ever had the lightning strike so close, that you couldn't hear the initial thunderclap because the sound wave generated outside of the sphere of space that you shared with the lightning? That happened to us last night. 

Couple weeks ago. Standing in the garage with the door open, and I think it must have struck either in my backyard or my neighbors. Didn't hear it as much as I felt it. Like a shockwave through my veins and felt static electricity all around/through me. Did not like that feeling. Quickly shut the door and considered my garage-tasks done for the day!

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6 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

C'mon people. The statement was made, then the reference to frolicking in poop was made. Then the comment was made again, and the reference about scat play was made 3 more times. Get yer shit together!

Sorry man, that shit sticks with you. 

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Today is weird.  Humid as fuck, overcast.  Already ball sweat hot.  Looks like everybody agrees rain starts late tonight.  But now we're only talking 1-2 inches over the whole weekend, stopping completely by Sunday morning?  ACL assembly crews reporting the mud from yesterday is a pain in the ass to sludge through but that falling rain is no longer their worry.  Which weekend should we attend?  

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42 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Wrong.  Asleep at the Wheel isn't in the lineup for the Third Weekend.

No, but Bob Schneider and Blue October will be opening for Spoon that third weekend.  It's a bye week for UT so expect larger crowds.  

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Update:

I'm lazy, of course.  I mean, who isn't - or shouldn't be?  Hard work is useless and takes years off your life.

Otherwise, models/forecasters are drawing sides.  One is the "gonna rain all the same" and the other is "maybe not so much."  Yeah, shockingly rare, I know.

Nevertheless, they're all betting on whether the air is gonna be washed out by tonight's almost-certain repeat of overnight Tuesday's weather, in both intensity and amounts, and therefore give us a stable (little/no rain) Friday for the most part.  Models are sputtering.   Of course will we get another beatdown tonight is yet another question.  The "it's gonna still rain a lot" side is still winning, but it's no longer a landslide.  NWS is still kind of sticking to their guns of more than less rain, but then they put this in at the 10 a.m. forecast:

The forecast for Friday is highly dependent on what occurs tonight.
Should the storms exit our area to the east, then much less shower
and thunderstorm activity would be expected. However, expect the
showers and thunderstorms will decrease late tonight into early
Friday.

This confusing statement is saying what I said... "If showers move out [quickly and rain is brief] ← (they should have used this phrase!!) tonight, then the atmosphere won't be worked over tomorrow as much, and rain is more probable.  Nevertheless, expect showers to move out eventually."  Talk about CYA, must've taken hours of intense study to come up with that.  So not much help there.  But still, give'em a break.

So the best CYA answer is "we really won't know until we see the radar starting Fri. morning."

My "open to the public" answer is that I'm leaning towards more than less rain on Friday.  Not a total washout, but 1) there's LOTSA moisture coming up from the Gulf; 2) we have a frontal boundary near us; 3) the Jet is moving almost right above us, and 4) Good Ol' Mr. Sunshine will do his diurnal thing tomorrow and heat up the atmosphere.

So I'd expect less rain until maybe later after lunch, then periods of showers.  I would be surprised if ACL went through Friday dry.

Saturday still looks pretty wet, hasn't changed  - yet anyway.

My "premium insider lock it in answer" is reserved for subscribers.  $149.95 per month.  But you also get my thoughts on UT football.  PayPal or Afghanis (that is really the name of their currency, too)  accepted.

Back later because I'm sure this will change and I'll be wrong somewhere.  But I'm happy widdit right now.

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1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

1) there's LOTSA moisture coming up from the Gulf;

This reminds me -- I have a pitch for a porn film called "Gulf Moisture."  I haven't really sketched out a plot or anything, I just know that all of the talent will wear white shrimper boots for the entire film.  And there will be an abnormally high amount of cussing.  If you would like a full prospectus so that you can obtain equity in this can't-miss venture, send me a DM for a link to where you can submit your $9.95.

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

This reminds me -- I have a pitch for a porn film called "Gulf Moisture."  I haven't really sketched out a plot or anything, I just know that all of the talent will wear white shrimper boots for the entire film.  And there will be an abnormally high amount of cussing.  If you would like a full prospectus so that you can obtain equity in this can't-miss venture, send me a DM for a link to where you can submit your $9.95.

If you need a cinematographer, I’m your man. I have no formal training, but I know how to hold my iPhone the right way when filming.

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18 minutes ago, South Austin said:

If you need a cinematographer, I’m your man. I have no formal training, but I know how to hold my iPhone the right way when filming.

What he didn't tell you is that Gulf Moisture will be using local talent rounded up from the Corpus area starring Virginia Slim a 56 year old female bar fly from Flour Bluff.

 

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1 minute ago, South Austin said:

Damn right. I beat OU and aggy. You all owe me beers.

Not to mention you beat Jordan Hicks to the vulva.  Considering his 40, ain't easy to do.  Much respect.  

And that lonely red light you see in the corner, madam.  Will either be my record indicator or my cigarette tip.  Dealer's choice.

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2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

This reminds me -- I have a pitch for a porn film called "Gulf Moisture."  I haven't really sketched out a plot or anything, I just know that all of the talent will wear white shrimper boots for the entire film.  And there will be an abnormally high amount of cussing.  If you would like a full prospectus so that you can obtain equity in this can't-miss venture, send me a DM for a link to where you can submit your $9.95.

First, you make a roux....

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