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ERCOT, PUC, and deregulation got us here


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1 hour ago, Llano Estacado said:

I’m in the O&G business. My bubble and I would generally agree that battery storage to the scale we need to continue to increase dependence on renewables isn’t there and we increase our incentives and reliance on solar and wind without dependable back-up for demand spikes/on site storage of fuel energy to the grid’s and our own peril.

Diverse energy market, great. Artificial markets amplifying undependable energy sources while existing cheap reliable power (especially carbon neutral nuclear) is passed over and moth-balled, not so great.

 

these two words don't belong in the same sentence.

 

as for storage, we know how to do it, it's just a matter of doing so.  the fact that we don't and instead we continually hand wring and drag ass about it is 100% at the feet of the carbon industry. 

if the carbon industry had to pay for dumping its shit in my yard we'd have been done with it decades ago. 

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12 minutes ago, elfenix said:

these two words don't belong in the same sentence.

 

as for storage, we know how to do it, it's just a matter of doing so.  the fact that we don't and instead we continually hand wring and drag ass about it is 100% at the feet of the carbon industry. 

if the carbon industry had to pay for dumping its shit in my yard we'd have been done with it decades ago. 

We aren't even close to solving the storage problem.  Standard electrochemical battery technology sucks.  Don't kid yourself.

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Just now, jimmyjazz said:

We aren't even close to solving the storage problem.  Standard electrochemical battery technology sucks.  Don't kid yourself.

i didn't say batteries. 

maybe if instead of subsidizing the energy infrastructure of the past at 10x the rate of the infrastructure of the future we'd have flipped that around we'd have uber batteries by now, if you want to stick with batteries.

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Just now, elfenix said:

i didn't say batteries. 

maybe if instead of subsidizing the energy infrastructure of the past at 10x the rate of the infrastructure of the future we'd have flipped that around we'd have uber batteries by now, if you want to stick with batteries.

So what storage technology are you advocating?

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14 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

So what storage technology are you advocating?

all of them.  pumped storage, molten salts, batteries, weights suspended down miles long bore shafts (hey all those drillers have something that they can keep doing!), flywheels, hydrogen, and all the other shit out there i haven't heard of that can store energy.  this is all stuff that we can actually do today, it just requires that we stop subsidizing dead fuel sources in the realm of hundreds of billions a year and start building it out using the money we just freed up.   and we might decide we can free up even more if we don't have to prop up shit regimes throughout the world so that we can have access to their oil. 

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I have a soft spot for the gravity storage models I've seen.  Haven't found a huge "whoops" yet, but there are surely problems.

I have an idea for a kinetic storage device that's pretty bare bones in terms of cost.  I haven't filed for IP yet, so I won't discuss, and I wonder if it's practical, but there may be something there.

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13 minutes ago, elfenix said:

all of them.  pumped storage, molten salts, batteries, weights suspended down miles long bore shafts (hey all those drillers have something that they can keep doing!), flywheels, hydrogen, and all the other shit out there i haven't heard of that can store energy.  this is all stuff that we can actually do today, it just requires that we stop subsidizing dead fuel sources in the realm of hundreds of billions a year and start building it out using the money we just freed up.   and we might decide we can free up even more if we don't have to prop up shit regimes throughout the world so that we can have access to their oil. 

I'm pretty sure this is pretty damn close to jimmy's area of academic and professional interest and training.

He knows whats up.

I saw something that is fairly obvious but hadn't occurred to me.  They cut rural-industiral grids and in the process cut power to pipelines.  So those that hadn't froze did and had no power to pump anyway.

JFC.

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I've been reading up on capacity markets and it seems that while they would help with the capacity issue, renewable energy is somewhat fundamentally incompatible in its current state and would be disincented by a capacity market.

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And during that ramp up, why can’t we have a system where we take advantage of renewables in situations where they’re good and have gas/oil/coal step in when needed? 
So why the angst? Or if not angst, negative attitude toward renewable investments?  


Eh, I wouldn’t say it is angst exactly, although fellow Texans needlessly died this week of exposure, lack of power (in the energy capital of the world) for lifesaving equipment, and CO poisoning cause policy makers can’t get this right. So, that sucks ass. It is more my engineering brain, and general curiosity trying to see through the #bothsides talking points on a very complicated problem, and get to root cause and actual solutions.

Texas/ERCOT called for standby demand generation this week and it wasn’t there. It wasn’t there for a lot of reasons this week, but if we’re targeting 50% or 100% renewable by, say 2030, as some goal post how do we square that round in a market that has proved it is already failing.

Honest question; Where’s the safe threshold % for renewables versus surge capacity as we ramp up storage and battery tech? CISO and ERCOT had their failures at ~10-15%. I’m not at all an expert, but this weeks EIA’s renewables numbers look fairly similar for all grids, regardless of TX’s wind vs NG production. What’s safe tomorrow? Heat wave August 15th, 2021? 5 years from now? fc8bdbe76d67faed67cbecc5ac3e8955.png
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these two words don't belong in the same sentence.
 
as for storage, we know how to do it, it's just a matter of doing so.  the fact that we don't and instead we continually hand wring and drag ass about it is 100% at the feet of the carbon industry. 
if the carbon industry had to pay for dumping its shit in my yard we'd have been done with it decades ago. 



EIA says about $0.0775 kWh for some 30yr life expectancy plant X. Not too far from future projections of combined cycle NG plants.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf

See lasts post EIA graphs. We know how to create reliable as hell, carbon neutral, baseline power from nuclear. If carbon emissions are a 5-10-15yr existential threat to humanity. Why the hell are we waiting for storage tech? Quit the fucking hand wringing and drag ass and tax incentives for green projects and let’s start building 60+GWs of Gen4+ nuclear generation tomorrow. We can worry about electrifying cars and battery tech next decade.

I say that sincerely as an O&G engineer. And I ask again sincerely, are there holes in Judith Curry’s analysis, that isn’t too far from PenelopeW’s, that I’m missing?
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4 hours ago, Llano Estacado said:

I’m in the O&G business. My bubble and I would generally agree that battery storage to the scale we need to continue to increase dependence on renewables isn’t there and we increase our incentives and reliance on solar and wind without dependable back-up for demand spikes/on site storage of fuel energy to the grid’s and our own peril.

airplanes, rockets and dependable energy backup will remain fossilized for a long time pending a propulsion "breakthrough"****

but today, with today's technology, the one-time price of 100% renewable/nuclear cost+ electricity for the entire planet is $100 Billion:

 

1031463588_buckyfullerdymaxiongrid.gif.3c26d5ca451f12d673ba9e9a75afff56.gif

the US share of an interconnected world grid would be about 20%, or ~$17 Billion

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2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

We aren't even close to solving the storage problem.  Standard electrochemical battery technology sucks.  Don't kid yourself.

We are getting better at it.

https://newscenter.lbl.gov/2019/11/07/grid-battery-for-renewable-energy/ 

But your point rings true for the moment. Science is working on it presently. 

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5 hours ago, C-Man said:

I love Dave Lieber. I used to work with him at the StartleGram. I think he's a funny dude and he's great as the DMN's Watchdog Columnist. Here's his take:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/watchdog/2021/02/19/no-surprise-our-electricity-system-is-the-laughingstock-of-the-us-only-customers-cared-until-now/?fbclid=IwAR3EHsklaPKI7tMWgEr1AALo0DZvhRmmrghU4TMRnF1_rfyGRRKe3JtAiqA

fantastic piece.

only thing missing is the way failure of this magnitude is handled in japan

120px-Seppuku_(Chinese_characters)_svg.png.33cd77ff010218b63aacf7b9d9d53127.png

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57 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

Honest question; Where’s the safe threshold % for renewables versus surge capacity as we ramp up storage and battery tech? CISO and ERCOT had their failures at ~10-15%. I’m not at all an expert, but this weeks EIA’s renewables numbers look fairly similar for all grids, regardless of TX’s wind vs NG production. What’s safe tomorrow? Heat wave August 15th, 2021? 5 years from now?

 

You raise great questions and sadly, I'm the one Asian dude that sucks at math, so no engineer-ing ideas here from me! And I think as a layperson, that's where my frustration comes from. The seemingly lack of or if we're being somewhat generous a slight bias towards O&G analysis + unfettered free market designs are the inputs that crafted our state's energy policy.

I sincerely hope, want, and demand our leaders not only incorporate the Judith Curry of the world's analysis as you pointed out, but other's as well. It's no longer enough to just say... eh, the price went up. Or as William Hogan was quoted in an interview this week that the high prices reflected the market performing as it was designed. WTF? I mean yes it did... but doesn't make it right. I mean did our lawmakers not once pause and think this through? (I know I know)

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59 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

EIA says about $0.0775 kWh for some 30yr life expectancy plant X. Not too far from future projections of combined cycle NG plants.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf

See lasts post EIA graphs. We know how to create reliable as hell, carbon neutral, baseline power from nuclear.

all of the costs of which are up front.  the only nuclear unit under construction in the US is 5 years behind schedule and has nearly doubled in cost: ~$14 billion over budget having bankrupted its primary contractor.  so, frankly, no, it doesn't seem like we know how to create reliable as hell [but see south texas project going down this weekmore reliable, yes.  as hell? no.], carbon neutral, baseline power from nuclear.

Quote

If carbon emissions are a 5-10-15yr existential threat to humanity. Why the hell are we waiting for storage tech? Quit the fucking hand wringing and drag ass and tax incentives for green projects and let’s start building 60+GWs of Gen4+ nuclear generation tomorrow. We can worry about electrifying cars and battery tech next decade.

you can fuck right off with your false dilemma

Quote

I say that sincerely as an O&G engineer. And I ask again sincerely, are there holes in Judith Curry’s analysis, that isn’t too far from PenelopeW’s, that I’m missing?

dunno, i just answered who she is because i'd heard of her before.

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but today, with today's technology, the one-time price of 100% renewable/nuclear cost+ electricity for the entire planet is $100 Billion

the only nuclear unit under construction in the US is 5 years behind schedule and has nearly doubled in cost: ~$14 billion over budget having bankrupted its primary contractor.


Yall have citations? Cause we can either pay our fair share as part of the global energy kumbaya as a fraction of the next Covid Stimmi or pay off a brunch of brother-in-law construction loans with nothing to show for it?
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so, frankly, no, it doesn't seem like we know how to create reliable as hell [but see south texas project going down this week. more reliable, yes. as hell? no.], carbon neutral, baseline power from nuclear..


Sorry, an instrument sensing line, probably 20 years old, of a feed-water pump on the non-nuclear side of the plant froze up when Bay fucking City, Texas saw sustained temps 20 degs F below freezing.

Nuke tech older than your or I absolutely crushes the competition on capacity reliability and it ain’t close. 90+%

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_6_07_b

5dc230d5d304ac286494a7a731b54c92.gif

you can fuck right off with your false dilemma


Fair enough call out, but you were the one who brought up hand wringing and negative externalities as it relates to the carbon fuel industry during a renewable energy storage conversation.

When it comes to carbon footprint of our energy choices it’s binary, IMO. It either matters absolutely or it doesn’t. Policy makers can’t start throwing around “existential” in conversation then pick 4-40yr terms to scale down as it suits their base’s or donors’ liking.

“Subsidized big oil and the deregulated free market have failed us” cry the green new dealers

“But renewables govt backed loans and production tax credits are picking winners” whine the oil barons

It’s a convoluted mess between the subsidies, guaranteed loans, tax credits, tax carve outs, depreciation schedules and write offs, making apples to apples comparison near impossible for the best economists, and that is before you introduce negative externalities of hydrocarbons, depleted uranium, or depleted chemical batteries.

dunno, i just answered who she is because i'd heard of her before.


Cool.

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1 hour ago, Llano Estacado said:

 


Yall have citations? Cause we can either pay our fair share as part of the global energy kumbaya as a fraction of the next Covid Stimmi or pay off a brunch of brother-in-law construction loans with nothing to show for it?

 

vogtle 3 & 4 and vc summer 2 & 3 were to be built by westinghouse (acquired by toshiba), which went bankrupt in 2017 due to how fucked these projects were

vogtle 3 and 4 were originally estimated at around $14 billion, as of 2018 cost overruns had doubled that and the project was 5 years behind schedule.  no idea how that's changed in the intervening years, but i doubt it's gotten better.

vc 2 was originally to come online in 2016 with vc 3 following in 2019. total cost was originally to be $9 billion.  the state pulled the plug in 2017 after the $9 billion had been spent and the project was no where near completion. 

the evidence that we know how to make fission reactors isn't particularly strong.

32 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

Nuke tech older than your or I absolutely crushes the competition on capacity reliability and it ain’t close. 90+%

if your car only started 90% of the time you wouldn't call it reliable as hell.  not that capacity factor is reliability rating.  a gas peaking turbine that only comes on a few days in summer has a shit capacity factor. 

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11 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I have a soft spot for the gravity storage models I've seen.  Haven't found a huge "whoops" yet, but there are surely problems.

I have an idea for a kinetic storage device that's pretty bare bones in terms of cost.  I haven't filed for IP yet, so I won't discuss, and I wonder if it's practical, but there may be something there.

Saw this once out west in a Nova episode.  It was a couple of years ago, so I don't remember if it was wind or solar, but a wind or solar farm was built beside some mountains with two large reservoirs.  One reservoir was at a lower elevation next to the farm, the other was up in the actual mountains.  During the day, they used excess power to pump water from the lower reservoir up to the higher one.  At night, they run the water down from the higher reservoir through a hydroelectric dam so that they can generate power around the clock.  It was all so damn clever.  Obviously that's not feasible everywhere, but I imagine there are at least a few other sites in the US where such a thing is possible.

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12 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Hell yeah they can do that.  Don’t pay your bill for a couple of months and see if they turn off just your shit or the whole neighborhood.

This is funny, but completely wrong on how a smart grid would/can work. 

A smart grid would have limited capacity to each meter instantaneous and would have kept everyone from rolling blackouts or blackouts at all, since the limitation comes not from closing an entire circuit, but from the meter limiting how much your home circuit can draw from the grid. 

The technology has existed for the better part of a decade and is not expensive. 

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33 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Saw this once out west in a Nova episode.  It was a couple of years ago, so I don't remember if it was wind or solar, but a wind or solar farm was built beside some mountains with two large reservoirs.  One reservoir was at a lower elevation next to the farm, the other was up in the actual mountains.  During the day, they used excess power to pump water from the lower reservoir up to the higher one.  At night, they run the water down from the higher reservoir through a hydroelectric dam so that they can generate power around the clock.  It was all so damn clever.  Obviously that's not feasible everywhere, but I imagine there are at least a few other sites in the US where such a thing is possible.

It's called "pumped hydro" and it's been a viable concept for decades.  Most facilities were built in the 1970s.  Typically they pump water from a lower reservoir to a higher reservoir when utility scale power is cheap (nighttime) and then use that water to drive power turbines during the day.

Pumped hydro

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Seems like they would be even more useful today as a way to store extra power from wind and solar so they can either make up their production quota when conditions aren't ideal or to produce power around the clock.  Another plus is that according to your link, there are a few suitable sites in West Texas where there are already lots of wind farms.

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29 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Seems like they would be even more useful today as a way to store extra power from wind and solar so they can either make up their production quota when conditions aren't ideal or to produce power around the clock.  Another plus is that according to your link, there are a few suitable sites in West Texas where there are already lots of wind farms.

Sure, but at the end of the day, it's a battery.  It's just a mechanical battery storing potential (gravity) energy.  All storage media have their pros and cons.  Electrochemical batteries, capacitors, magnetic energy storage, kinetic energy storage (moving mass, i.e. flywheels), potential energy storage (pumped hydro, "mass elevators" in urban centers), even thermal energy storage -- lots of choices, and lots of "optimal" implementations.  Ultimately, electrochemical batteries still rule the day, and by orders of magnitude.  I'm not saying they're necessarily better than other options, but they are so ubiquitous that they have a massive head start.

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18 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Sure, but at the end of the day, it's a battery.  It's just a mechanical battery storing potential (gravity) energy.  All storage media have their pros and cons.  Electrochemical batteries, capacitors, magnetic energy storage, kinetic energy storage (moving mass, i.e. flywheels), potential energy storage (pumped hydro, "mass elevators" in urban centers), even thermal energy storage -- lots of choices, and lots of "optimal" implementations.  Ultimately, electrochemical batteries still rule the day, and by orders of magnitude.  I'm not saying they're necessarily better than other options, but they are so ubiquitous that they have a massive head start.

There's been some interesting research around using excess energy for hydrolysis to charge hydrogen fuel cells or for storage to react later

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if your car only started 90% of the time you wouldn't call it reliable as hell.  not that capacity factor is reliability rating.  a gas peaking turbine that only comes on a few days in summer has a shit capacity factor. 


I drive a Dodge Stratus! What kind of fallacy is that? The US Navy could decide to power Ford Class carriers via internal combustion engines, but that has nothing to do with the reliability and TX power grid.

I may be reading that EIA chart incorrectly, but the notes at the bottom I interpret to say it’s normalized and time adjusted for a whole summer month. That’s the best data I could find looking through EIA and NERC sources for any measure of “reliability” or “downtime”.

But, “shit capacity factor” leads to the larger talking point that started this conversation the market has little to no incentive for power generators to offer reliability. Wind and solar are intermittent and require backup via some sort of storage or additional peaking capacity. Wind and solar investors don’t see that externality they pass it on to the utility customers, us. Cost effective storage at the levels were talking for ERCOT ~20GW or more are years down the road. NG plants are already failing to cover peak demand in Texas and Cali as we’ve seen, but we just keep building more wind turbines expanding their baseline which will just exacerbate the problem on overcast and still summer days/nights.
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2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's called "pumped hydro" and it's been a viable concept for decades.  Most facilities were built in the 1970s.  Typically they pump water from a lower reservoir to a higher reservoir when utility scale power is cheap (nighttime) and then use that water to drive power turbines during the day.

Pumped hydro

There's a large facility like this just outside Chattanooga, TN.  Pretty cool story and can really crank out the megawatts when needed.

https://www.tva.com/energy/our-power-system/hydroelectric/raccoon-mountain

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4 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

i didn't have power for 58 hours in 2013

what the fuck is dan patrick talking about?

Excuse you, Habard, but you need to decide who you're going to believe: the manly, virile & brilliant Dan Patrick or your own lyin' eyes? Dan said there were no problems in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. Aren't you satisfied with that explanation?

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30 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

From the Dan Patrick thread.  The people in charge have to go.

Wow.. "we didn't have a problem in 2012, 2013, 2014..."

Ah yes, the old "my son was a wonderful, kind person for twenty years, and was a rapist for only fifteen minutes" defense. Chernobyl was an expertly run power plant until it just happened to have one really, really unlucky day.

 

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4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

In care you wondered how much of this is on our leadership....Dan Patrick sealed it. You don’t run away from something that fast unless you fucking broke it.

Can you imagine this mindset for like... cars, appliances, er... medicine? Hey hey hey Joe public and media. Watcha all pissed about? There wasn't any problem before!

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So in ranking which republican piece of shit Texas politician is most responsible for this fiasco I came up with this list:

1. Rick Perry. He’s living in a multi million dollar house in round top and sitting an a pile of money like Scrooge Mcduck because he made a ton of money fucking all of us over.

2. Greg Abbott. Absolutely knew about the problem but probably figured it would burn the next governor instead of him.

3. Dan Patrick. Too much of an incompetent buffoon to know much about anything or do anything about it.

4. Cancun Cruz. The man does absolutely nothing for the state so why should energy be any different? He does win the biggest psychopath Texas politician award though.

 

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Also, a little more explanation of how people are getting turbofucked on power costs.

The PUC (all Repub appointees, as they have been for a generation) set the max price at $9,000 per MwH. Not that long ago, the Max was $1,000.

But back when the cap was lower, the PUC realized we were short on generation, so we needed more (that is, we had a known capacity problem). There are two main ways to try to obtain sufficient capacity in a grid: 1) add a capacity market function to your system, as literally every other grid in the US has, or 2) create an economic incentive for private parties to build additional generation to meet peak demand.

Under that second option, it may make economic sense for me to build an expensive gas-fired generation unit that I only turn on when prices go above a certain point. I may only generate for 15 days a year, during the most expensive peak periods of the summer and winter, and still make $30 million per year in profit. That kind of margin can make a $500 million plant worth building.

But here’s a problem with that model. That $9,000 MwH - the price that helps New GenCo make a mint in 15 days - has to be paid by someone. We the people are that someone. Option 2 is just a money transfer - one with functionally no limit, because it could be 15 days, it could be 30 days, at high pricing - from consumers to private industry. And yes, private generators are also taking a risk, so it’s not unreasonable for them to reap a reward. That’s how capitalist economics works....but it also tells us that pure capitalism does not yield an efficient result here. It’s like we’re making fun of Dan for....it’s efficient until it’s not, and then it’s bad.

Nobody wants a car that, on average, stays in its lane, if that means that every now and then, it swerved hard left or hard right, with a cliff on either side.

The $9,000 price cap might not swerve you over the cliff if it is only implicated for an hour or two per year (usually on the hottest day of the year). But when it’s in play for days....during a period in which the access to power is literally a matter of life and death....that’s utterly fucked up. And, in their single-minded, tunnel vision worship at the altar of private enterprise and profit, the PUC never even considered the “what if” of the very scenario they were supposedly planning for, and the impact of that on human lives.

The rot is at the very foundation. It is a rot that makes a god of profit, and treats any and all other considerations as heresy.

When this is all said and done, whatever “solution” is proposed will still follow that Most Holy Religion. There will be no solution that is not geared towards profit over people. Those of you who scream about taxes are supposedly screaming about money coming out of your pocket....if MORE money comes out of your pocket in the scenario that sends it as windfall profits to New GenCo, instead of slightly less money going to building extra capacity with a reasonable rate of return....how is that a win? It’s not. But, it fits within the dogma of the Church of Dollars Matter, People Don’t, so that’s where we’ll end up.

And let all god’s people say “record profits.”

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