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Posted

What could go wrong?  (I didn't think the Executive branch has the power to fire/change staff at the Fed)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-16/trump-likely-to-fire-powell-soon-white-house-official-says?embedded-checkout=true

Quote

Anna Paulina Luna, a Florida Republican who was among the holdouts on the cryptocurrency bill, wrote on social media that she was “hearing Jerome Powell is getting fired! From a very serious source.”

In a later post, she wrote, “I’m 99% sure firing is imminent.”

The White House official disputed the notion that Trump would move immediately to remove Powell.

In seeking to fire him, Trump would test the legal bounds of his authority over the central bank and independent federal agencies more broadly.

 

Posted
25 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

But will it get rates lowered. I'm gonna drive right around your CR posts 

Cool story sweetie. While you're at it look up what happens to countries where the interest rate is determined by the whims of a desperate politician.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Cool story sweetie. While you're at it look up what happens to countries where the interest rate is determined by the whims of a desperate politician.

You don't have to sweetie me.  I'm not picking a side I'm picking me being in mortgages. Which if you had been around for a minute you would know 

  • Like 1
Posted
6 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

You don't have to sweetie me.  I'm not picking a side I'm picking me being in mortgages. Which if you had been around for a minute you would know 

Hey congrats. Cheering for us to go down the stagflation slide just because of your chosen career is a bitch move. If you were any good at your job, you'd know that. 

Posted
20 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Hey congrats. Cheering for us to go down the stagflation slide just because of your chosen career is a bitch move. If you were any good at your job, you'd know that. 

Congrats on people thinking you're a piece of shit bc of how you post on the internet. Maybe consider that before your mom lets you post next 

Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Hey congrats. Cheering for us to go down the stagflation slide just because of your chosen career is a bitch move. If you were any good at your job, you'd know that. 

You might as well quote @Wulaw Horn and @LCHorn too so that we're all bad at it 

Edited by UTPhil2006
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
4 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Whatever gets rates lower I'm in for 

That’s like me hoping for a second great depression.   

Blame the game, but not the players!

 

Posted
3 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

firing powell might have the opposite effect

Powell is done in less than a year anyway. I agree with your comment on the outcome regardless if he’s fired or leaves when his term as chair ends. I think the bond markets are going to start pushing up rates on longer term treasuries even if the fed lowers the federal funds rate.

Posted
1 minute ago, Gatorubet said:

That’s like me hoping for a second great depression.   

Blame the game, but not the players!

 

I read the 2025 financial goals thread. I'm on everyone's side. If my loss is everyones gain so be it. I'm just trying to keep my head above water 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

You are not evil for wanting to support your family.    

I am not evil for hoping that tens of millions will be unemployed and decide we need a new deal like country and they never vote GOP again (until some semblance of morality returns to their ranks.)

It’s just that son-of-a-bitch Johnson and this goddamn war

 

  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Congrats on people thinking you're a piece of shit bc of how you post on the internet. Maybe consider that before your mom lets you post next 

You responded to a post that said nothing political but quoted the president not knowing it was himself who appointed nominated the chair of the Fed by thread policing. Now people "think I'm a pos."  Are you okay?

and I mistakenly left out the "do you know who I am?" bit...lulz, nice play, sir, nice play.

Edited by Chopper
Posted
2 hours ago, Chopper said:

You responded to a post that said nothing political but quoted the president not knowing it was himself who appointed nominated the chair of the Fed by thread policing. Now people "think I'm a pos."  Are you okay?

and I mistakenly left out the "do you know who I am?" bit...lulz, nice play, sir, nice play.

You do you guy. I apologize for attacking you. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

Inflation number has beat expectations 6 months in a row and we are seeing basically nothing due to tariffs at the moment. Job market is soft but not disastrous. I’d think rates get lowered a couple times at least between now and the end of the year but who knows. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Inflation number has beat expectations 6 months in a row and we are seeing basically nothing due to tariffs at the moment. Job market is soft but not disastrous. I’d think rates get lowered a couple times at least between now and the end of the year but who knows. 

It’s a total wildcard. I could see inflation ticking up, but the government under “both sides” doctors the numbers lower so who knows what’s going to happen. 

 

5 hours ago, hornmpa96 said:

I think the bond markets are going to start pushing up rates on longer term treasuries even if the fed lowers the federal funds rate.

The Fed controls the long end of the curve now. There are no “bond vigilantes”.  

  • Fuck You 1
Posted
2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

You do you guy. I apologize for attacking you. 

Don't apologize. 

Some guy that never posts on this thread dropped some Trump content. You tried to redirect. He wouldn't let it go. He wasn't adding anything to the conversation. You were right. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Fuck You 1
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

You do you guy. I apologize for attacking you. 

Thank you, sir. I hope the rates fucking drop, too. It's a shame they probably won't until things get really desperate due to the across the board tariff issues.

59 minutes ago, Fiscal dominance said:

Don't apologize. 

Some guy that never posts on this thread dropped some Trump content. You tried to redirect. He wouldn't let it go. He wasn't adding anything to the conversation. You were right. 

Huh... 17 posts, eh. I'll bet I can guess exactly who this idiot is.

adding - For the record, however, the post was entirely relevant. The person who's most significant to rates dropping is the Fed Reserve president, whom the potus is threatening to fire -- illegally -- because he won't lower rates. The president nominated him but he can't recall that basic fact. The role of the Federal Reserve is statutory - to primarily focus on employment and inflation.

Edited by Chopper
Posted

lol if you think we’re getting rate cuts.  Not happening this year as inflation ticks up.  I’m resigned to 6.5 to 7 percent rates for mortgage for the next twelve months and it’s going to really drag on home buying.

 

Personally I’m at five percent so I don’t think I’m ever refinancing, just paying it off.

Posted
11 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Inflation number has beat expectations 6 months in a row and we are seeing basically nothing due to tariffs at the moment.

Yes, waiter? I'll have what he's having. I too would like to live in the alternative reality you're describing lol

Posted
9 hours ago, Chopper said:

the post was entirely relevant

The post was relevant. Your commentary attached to that post wasn't. UTPhil was correct.

Anyway, Pulte being at the forefront of this push suggests they're trying to get out in front of (or reverse) a housing industry slowdown.

That and the economy probably in worse shape than the doctored numbers would indicate. 

  • Fuck You 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Yes, waiter? I'll have what he's having. I too would like to live in the alternative reality you're describing lol

I don’t know what to tell you. PPI is up 0.1% the previous 6 months (cumulative). The 3 month run rate (annualized) is 2.1 or something like that and the 6 month is 2.4. The non government people that do the inflation basket stuff have inflation sub 2. 
every month there is expectations for what inflation is going to come in at and every month it has come in at or beneath expectations. 
You want to say you don’t trust the data?  Cool. I’ve certainly been making that point (and been vindicated by it) on the job report for YEARS. 
 

Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You want to say you don’t trust the data?  Cool. I’ve certainly been making that point (and been vindicated by it) on the job report for YEARS. 

No, I'm saying that the stock market is decoupled from reality, so arguing that the "economy is fine because stonks go up" is not really a thorough analysis.

26 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

every month there is expectations for what inflation is going to come in at and every month it has come in at or beneath expectations. 

Oh, so prices aren't significantly higher than they were five years ago? I must have missed that the house I bought this year was literally half the price in 2019. Or that my same $150 grocery cart is now $250. I'm sure all the attacks on farm workers and invasions of build crews will definitely help with bringing those prices down too.

Edited by Captainant
Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, Fiscal dominance said:

The post was relevant. Your commentary attached to that post wasn't. UTPhil was correct.

 

"Imbecile" and "dementia" are somehow CR? Also fyi if you want to police thread, go get fucked instead. 

To @UTPhil2006please accept my apologies for sarcastically calling you sweetie.

 

Edited by Chopper
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Captainant said:

No, I'm saying that the stock market is decoupled from reality, so arguing that the "economy is fine because stonks go up" is not really a thorough analysis.

Oh, so prices aren't significantly higher than they were five years ago? I must have missed that the house I bought this year was literally half the price in 2019. Or that my same $150 grocery cart is now $250. I'm sure all the attacks on farm workers and invasions of build crews will definitely help with bringing those prices down too.

I gave a very very very clear timeframe in 6 months. You are going back 5 years. Yes. Inflation is up 25% from that time period. Carry on quoting me without remotely coming close to responding to anything I said in a topical matter. 
also, I never mentioned anything about stocks. 
Up your meds. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Posted
6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I gave a very very very clear timeframe in 6 months. You are going back 5 years. Yes. Inflation is up 25% from that time period. Carry on quoting me without remotely coming close to responding to anything I said in a topical matter. 
also, I never mentioned anything about stocks. 
Up your meds. 

Yes, it's easy to argue that inflation has been defeated since January 20, 2025 if you ignore all the reality surrounding your claim. Prices are going up, and tariffs are driving that.

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-inflation-expected-rise-june-with-tariff-driven-price-hikes-2025-07-15/ (apologies for using this rag of a publication, next to no factual reporting from them unfortuantely)

Further, you didn't bring any data or anything aside from your assertion, so I'm not sure how you'd like me to respond aside from going "ahyup okeydoke". Most tariff regimes take months to show impact, we're only just now seeing the first wave of price pass-throughs.

 

But yes, of course. Anyone who disagrees is mentally ill. Such incredible community building that's not toxic, wow.

Posted (edited)

Health insurers in CO are looking for a 28% rate increase in 2026. The full cost to consumers doesn't count the substantial decrease in subsidies that have been available to make health care affordable for millions of people.  I did a quick search and I didn't see similar reporting about rate filings for Texas though they'll probably be out soon (?).

image.png.07fbaef0a96536ed1fc87466a10e5282.png

https://coloradosun.com/2025/07/17/colorado-health-insurance-prices-one-big-beautiful-bill/

 

...

image.thumb.png.296f1ac435414bab876ad2b873e5c72f.png

 

 

Edited by Chopper
Posted

Homebuilders don’t seem to share the sunny disposition in here that everything is awesome and if we could just get some rate cuts everything would fly to the moon.  They are going to everyone asking for price reductions right now.  I guess that’s super bullish.

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