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Posted

Grocery stores subsidizing turkey as a loss leader on other higher margin and cost items is hilarious. 

Also hilarious that people are spending 50-60 dollars for 10 people on Thanksgiving and running around like it's a real number hahahahahahahahahaha

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Posted
21 hours ago, immamac said:

Grocery stores subsidizing turkey as a loss leader on other higher margin and cost items is hilarious. 

Also hilarious that people are spending 50-60 dollars for 10 people on Thanksgiving and running around like it's a real number hahahahahahahahahaha

Yeah, a headline I saw yesterday said the cost of turkey was up 40% year-over-year.  Maybe these cheap ass turkeys are the ones culled because they had bird flu.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
3 hours ago, Captainant said:

Well, refusing to release the inflation data MUST mean only sunshine and dandelions right?

 

 

This seems like a good strategy to get JPow on board to reduce interest rates.  “We have replaced the woke inflation report with hard turkey dinner data!”

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Posted
On 11/19/2025 at 12:42 PM, Incredulity said:

God damn fascists at the Farm Bureau reporting the same.

 

https://www.fb.org/news-release/cost-of-thanksgiving-dinner-declines

2025_Thanksgiving_average-cost-for-10-02

Serious question. Do you really believe Trump when he says that food prices are going down?  If not, why would you post something like that?

Second question: do you think POTUS - a pathological liar who won’t let bad inflation reports be released - does not have an ability to get a toadie to fudge farm  bureau statistics on a topic he previously made a public announcement about….because he could never be wrong about something?

 

IMG_5604.thumb.jpeg.beef87cff9e41d293d853046c514d1bd.jpeg

Posted
26 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

TDS on the TDS board, for fuck sake.

brother, this IS the TDS board - you are pathologically incapable of acknowledging reality. Say, did you ever figure out if tariffs would have a negative effect on the economy? 

We're enjoying a COVID-like economic environment and inflation, for really no reason besides derangement and tariffs

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/04/layoff-announcements-this-year-top-1point1-million-the-most-since-2020-when-pandemic-hit-challenger-says.html

 

I gotta say though, it's hilarious how this thread slowed waaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyy down in 2025 despite inflation getting worse than ever. I WONDER what changed.....

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Posted

lmao they literally stopped releasing data for this year, and the administration has been screaming from the rooftops how inaccurate and unfair all the reported numbers are. 

So NOW they're accurate? You're telling me all the hysteria from yall in 2023 and 2024 was just performative?

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

lmao they literally stopped releasing data for this year, and the administration has been screaming from the rooftops how inaccurate and unfair all the reported numbers are. 

So NOW they're accurate? You're telling me all the hysteria from yall in 2023 and 2024 was just performative?

Zyprexa.PNG

Posted

Nothing better than surrenduring the point by jumping to personal attacks instead of addressing what I'm saying. Credit to you I guess for calling me mentally ill instead of a communist this time. I'm proud of you for diversifying 

Posted
16 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Nothing better than surrenduring the point by jumping to personal attacks instead of addressing what I'm saying. Credit to you I guess for calling me mentally ill instead of a communist this time. I'm proud of you for diversifying 

mentally ill communist seems about right.

Posted
34 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Do you see that your own chart shows that inflation is on the rise again in 2025?  Despite continuing distancing from the pressures of Covid?

Plus, the asterisk.

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Posted

It's all BLS data in that chart.  The problem is we aren't sure whether we can trust BLS data any more.  

 

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

 

The chart is from here:

 

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

image.png.d585886692c8a8507497003f3a4cd4ba.png

(the meaning of the scary asterisk is included this time, too).

 

The problem is this that we have to have discussions now about whether BLS data is rigged because Trump tweets that they are rigged.  He said the job numbers issued “were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.”

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/bls-investigation-challenges-yes-rigged-data-no

As a result, he fired Erika McEntarfer at the BLS and tried to install friendly people in the BLS to put up administration-friendly numbers.  Soviet stuff.

So now we have stuff like this.

image.png.c6273ad73e75d233319ffce335d43337.png

 

And because the charts look decent for the administration, you have people like Incredulity posting them, despite the administration saying they were fake back in October when jobs revision numbers didn't look as good for Trump.

 

In other words, it's hard to get clear data on it right now, the kind of clear data we've had for every month since time immemorial because our government doesn't want us to know.  It may well be great inflation numbers right now.  Who knows.

 

 

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Posted
51 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

It's been awhile since I checked in here, is incredulity seriously disputing that inflation is increasing?

i think he's saying its ok for adults to have sex with children. not sure though.

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Posted (edited)

Well so are we in agreement that inflation is still rising or not? The data we were getting prior to the shut down indicated a slight increase, right? Is it prudent for the fed to cut interest rates right now or not? 

Edited by B00M
Posted
1 hour ago, B00M said:

Well so are we in agreement that inflation is still rising or not? The data we were getting prior to the shut down indicated a slight increase, right? Is it prudent for the fed to cut interest rates right now or not? 

if it is in fact at 3%, that's perfectly fine.   here are various sectors, all converging around 3%.  energy having the most variability -- natural gas and electricity not great right now, gasoline doing well.  this 'feels' right to me, which is as accurate as anyone can get in the vibe economy.

image.png.dd33aa435a77d143638656f7c87c27df.png

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, B00M said:

Is it prudent for the fed to cut interest rates right now or not? 

I am generally opposed to rate cuts at the moment.  ZIRP is a market distortion that has contributed a ton to the affordability crisis(most specifically housing, but all assets) we currently are experiencing.

granularly a 1/4 point don't make a shit either way.

Edited by Incredulity
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Posted

Today's quarter point cut won't matter.  The market catalyst will be the dot plot and Powell's speech and QA session starting at 1:30p. We should trend hawkish over the next few months but we'll see how much collective spine these people have.

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, B00M said:

Well so are we in agreement that inflation is still rising or not? The data we were getting prior to the shut down indicated a slight increase, right? Is it prudent for the fed to cut interest rates right now or not? 

trending up or down, it's still too high for what the fed says they want, that's just not debatable. the other fact is that price increases are cumulative as we all know, after 2+ years of historically high inflation (not runaway inflation mind you) it's going to take several years of sub three percent inflation for consumers to be able to truly adjust.  add higher interest rates for credit cards, cars, impact of locked in low or higher new mortgages and other cost increases and it's obvious consumers/families are still feeling the pain. so people feel like inflation is still high.  as for whether it's going up or down, seems fairly stable from the data, but not sure that's reliable anymore.

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
1 hour ago, ImNotMarkinson said:

if it is in fact at 3%, that's perfectly fine.   here are various sectors, all converging around 3%.  energy having the most variability -- natural gas and electricity not great right now, gasoline doing well.  this 'feels' right to me, which is as accurate as anyone can get in the vibe economy.

image.png.dd33aa435a77d143638656f7c87c27df.png

this is not directed at you but is a general statement:

I don't have an issue with 3% (we probably should expect 3%+ for the next couple of decades to inflate our way out of a debt crisis) but the visibility is that prices are still rising after skyrocketing several years before. they are, at a modest rate, higher than the fed wants, but not terribly high. but the idea that eggs are going to get back to "cheap" prices is a non-starter. price increases from inflation are not reversing because inflation is under control.  I don't know how long it will take for the consumer to feel re-calibrated again but I'm not surprised it isn't now.

* at this point gov't statistics are no longer reliable so who knows what's real anymore.

Posted
1 minute ago, scramblyn said:

trending up or down, it's still too high for what the fed says they want, that's just not debatable. the other fact is that price increases are cumulative as we all know, after 2+ years of historically high inflation (not runaway inflation mind you) it's going to take several years of sub three percent inflation for consumers to be able to truly adjust.  add higher interest rates for credit cards, cars, impact of locked in low or higher new mortgages and other cost increases and it's obvious consumers/families are still feeling the pain.

not to mention the incredibly massive debt bubble that's built up in datacenters. Nvidia has sold around 10-12 Gigawatts of GPU's in the last four quarters - almost all funded with debt from the buyers (and some debt from Nvidia itself to boot). Building a 1GW of datacenter capacity takes about 2 and a half years and ANOTHER $50,000,000,000. So there's got to be mountains of hardware sitting around collecting dust, not plugged in to anything or generating revenue. 

That's bad. The loans taken to buy the cards are still incurring interest while the hardware isn't generating revenue, and the purchases are causing a supply crunch and price spike elsewhere that we're currently enjoying. Because there's a massive opportunity cost to those loans given to buy GPUs to sit on shelves - that money isn't doing anything economically useful aside from fluffing NVDA and keeping LGU. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

but the idea that eggs are going to get back to "cheap" prices is a non-starter.

eggs are a nonsensical singular data point to evaluate food inflation on because most retailers buy their eggs based on a formula of the bid/ask commodity price.  So there is significant retail price volatility in eggs.  Same with milk and meat.  Also, retailers have often used these products to price differentiate themselves and sell them as loss leaders.

much of the center of the store selection is sold on a agreed price over time.  The manufacturer deals with the commodity input risk.

 

 

 

Posted
1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

eggs are a nonsensical singular data point to evaluate food inflation on because most retailers buy their eggs based on a formula of the bid/ask commodity price.  So there is significant retail price volatility in eggs.  Same with milk and meat.  Also, retailers have often used these products to price differentiate themselves and sell them as loss leaders.

much of the center of the store selection is sold on a agreed price over time.  The manufacturer deals with the commodity input risk.

 

 

 

it's the lightening rod. I don't give a shit about the price of eggs, call it whatever you want, the price of standard and necessary consumer goods.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

eggs are a nonsensical singular data point to evaluate food inflation on because most retailers buy their eggs based on a formula of the bid/ask commodity price.  So there is significant retail price volatility in eggs.  Same with milk and meat.  Also, retailers have often used these products to price differentiate themselves and sell them as loss leaders.

much of the center of the store selection is sold on a agreed price over time.  The manufacturer deals with the commodity input risk.

 

 

 

So is the price of gasoline.

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