Jump to content

2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?


Reagan1k

Recommended Posts

20 hours ago, Captainant said:

75th percentile means that it's higher than 75% of wages. The top 25% has the highest wage growth according to this chart, and the group that makes more than 25% of the population (the bottom 25%) saw their wages fall. 

 

Also, the average is above the median which is another indicator of top-heavy distribution 

This isn't a shot or anything, because you obviously do get it, but your reference to median vs mean here is timely given that I've been watching in fascination the last day or so as a mainstream liberal econ guy has been attempting to explain the difference between median and mean to far-left Bernie bros on Twitter. A seemingly Sisyphean task if you dig through his feed the last few days.

Although, once in a while, he manages to break through.

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/31/2023 at 9:26 AM, bernorange said:

Apologies for the necro bump, but I've seen this statistic pop up in recent days, and I remember it being referenced in this thread. 

The number seems shockingly high b/c it's not realistic, given "paycheck to paycheck", in this context, is thrown around very gratuitously.  When you see something that says nearly 2/3 of people making over $100K live "paycheck to paycheck" your bullshit meter should go off. Also, your bullshit meter should go off when the solitary source that gets quoted for this statistic is a "report" put out by a personal loan company.

"Paycheck to paycheck" means if you miss a paycheck, you're in deep shit. You can't make rent, your car gets repo'd, you have to take out a usurious loan or borrow from family...etc.

It doesn't mean "I would have to dig into my savings/carry a credit card balance for a bit" or "I make a lot of money, but I spend like a drunken sailor and don't save or invest."

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hal Finney said:

... if QT is ending ...

From Saturday:

Quote

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the US central bank may need to slow down the pace at which it shrinks its portfolio of assets amid scarcer liquidity in financial markets.

While liquidity and bank reserves in the financial system are still more than ample, she said, individual banks could start to see liquidity constraints, especially as balances in the Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase facility fall. Logan said it’s now “appropriate” to begin discussing the parameters around a Fed decision to slow the pace of its balance-sheet runoff.
...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/logan-says-fed-should-slow-asset-runoff-as-reverse-repo-dwindles

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Captainant said:

Lulz noCR tho amirite?

No shit, Surly 101.  "No left wing politics, everything else, cool cool".

Fucking hypocrites.  Lather, rinse, repeat.

New policy of mine:  I'm negging every political post I see on this board, either side.

  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Hal Finney said:

No she can't. She is the worst.

Econ 101. She's concerned about supply, huh. What about demand?

She's happily endorsed policies that have artificially inflated demand by millions of "units" the last few years.

 

Never mind the politics of this post we don’t have enough housing. The biggest input to the demand side was the combination of 

1) Low rates (monetary stimulus by the Fed to encourage investment ahead of savings)

2) The 2001, 2003, and 2017 Tax cuts (Fiscal stimulus expressly designed to protect/inflate asset values) 

3) Millennials entering the workforce 

And 

4) The 2007-2010 financial crisis

Elizabeth Warren sure as shit hasn’t endorsed #2, so I’m not sure Elizabeth Warren has to do with the other 3.

but either way, local exclusionary zoning and bad planning standards prevented the infill boom that should have happened in response to the above. We need more housing.

IOW Go get your shinebox and take it to the CR.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
  • Hook 'Em 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

. . . not to mention houses ain't groceries.

correct.  laws of supply and demand only affect things selectively.  so for housing it's so elementary it's s/d "101" for housing, but a wheel of cheese is extortionate collusion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

correct.  laws of supply and demand only affect things selectively.  so for housing it's so elementary it's s/d "101" for housing, but a wheel of cheese is extortionate collusion.

You know better than this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Markets don't seem very happy with the CPI print.  Fed isn't going to cut rates with inflation refusing to stay down like Cool Hand Luke getting pummeled in the yard.

MBS is up, 10 year T note is flat, DOW is down .30%, S&P is down .42% as I write this.  That's not "we're unhappy" at all, in my opinion. 

That said, sounds like Google did a smaller round of layoffs last night--let's see if the other tech firms decide to follow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's not THAT crazy.  Same bag is $3.64 in Austin.

Now, I'm not sure why anyone over the age of, say, 16 would eat that shit, but that's a different issue.

No I meant how wrecked and dingy it looked.

  • Fuck You 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

So rent shopping pays off?  Renewing a lease leads to higher cost?  Seems logical, if I understand the metric correctly.

New rents are super cheap compared to years past. So don’t renew your lease. Move or negotiate lower rent. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's not THAT crazy.  Same bag is $3.64 in Austin.

Now, I'm not sure why anyone over the age of, say, 16 would eat that shit, but that's a different issue.

 

56 minutes ago, Hal Finney said:

No I meant how wrecked and dingy it looked.

Taken in Austin. I noticed how nasty it looked when I snapped the photo too. Bottom shelf of the stand.

Just thought it funny as this was my first trip to the store since I posed the article about the French grocery store calling out PepsiCo/Frito-Lay for ridiculous price hikes. Voila! They are now on sale for $1 less.

Also, if eating Doritos over the age of 16 is wrong, I don't want to be right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's not THAT crazy.  Same bag is $3.64 in Austin.

Now, I'm not sure why anyone over the age of, say, 16 would eat that shit, but that's a different issue.

I think he was commenting on the disgusting condition of the racks. Is that a burnt cigarette butt? Looks like a gas station you'd find in Eagle Pass I think was the joke.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/10/2024 at 3:14 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

Never mind the politics of this post we don’t have enough housing. The biggest input to the demand side was the combination of 

1) Low rates (monetary stimulus by the Fed to encourage investment ahead of savings)

2) The 2001, 2003, and 2017 Tax cuts (Fiscal stimulus expressly designed to protect/inflate asset values) 

3) Millennials entering the workforce 

And 

4) The 2007-2010 financial crisis

Elizabeth Warren sure as shit hasn’t endorsed #2, so I’m not sure Elizabeth Warren has to do with the other 3.

but either way, local exclusionary zoning and bad planning standards prevented the infill boom that should have happened in response to the above. We need more housing.

IOW Go get your shinebox and take it to the CR.

But what you have to understand is FOX News said she is bad. And my uncle said so on Facebook too, right after he brilliantly protected his privacy by copy-pasting a paragraph about not taking his photos than had only two or three misspellings. 

4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

So rent shopping pays off?  Renewing a lease leads to higher cost?  Seems logical, if I understand the metric correctly.

While it depends on the market, in the current climate yes because there has been a surge in new supply. This has not really been the case for a while.

If I were an operator would I be playing hardball on lease renewal increases and letting people walk in this environment, only to end up leasing the unit at a similar rate to what I could have renewed at after incurring turnover costs and loss of rental income? No, probably not, but it does seem to be the case that some are. Most of 2024 is likely going to be pretty flat in terms of rents as that supply surge carries into the new year but I expect rents to start increasing notably again by 2025.

In a relative sense it's a pretty good time to be a renter, for once. Also CPI rent data sucks in general and is probably inflating (hehe) inflation numbers a bit, just as it likely undersold inflation on the up-slope.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well it'll help when companies aren't gouging for profits as much too

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/19/us-inflation-caused-by-corporate-profits

Quote

Nearly 60% of the drop in key goods and services’ inputs was driven by large declines in energy costs, such as jet fuel and diesel fuel, while transportation and warehousing costs have fallen by nearly 4% since June 2022 peaks.

Still, prices remain high. Consumers are still paying about 25% more for groceries, the report notes as an example.

Corporations maintain high prices by exploiting cost shocks caused by events like the Ukraine war and coordinating price hikes, said Isabella Weber, a University of Massachusetts Amherst economist who was not part of the paper.

The shocks create an environment in which it is safe for firms to increase prices as they expect their competitors to do the same, said Weber.

“This is a form of implicit collusion,” she said. “Firms do not even need to talk to one another to know that a cost shock is a great time to raise prices. But when costs fall, price setting firms do not have any incentive to decrease prices.”

If no firms launch a price war, Weber added, then companies “hold the line” on prices and widen margins. She pointed to food processors as an example.

 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Best consumer sentiment reading since July 2021.

GENsK5RXEAAfgwr?format=png&name=900x900

Current conditions, future conditions, inflation expectations all much better than expected.

 

That sentiment chart is wild.

Global pandemic with huge unknowns that literally pauses our normal way of life and completely transforms how we live, work, and play? Sure, I don't feel that great.

Inflation? Aw fuck no, everything is going to hell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/17/2024 at 2:39 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Is this double couponing?

IMG_0236.thumb.jpeg.719a12553d7ed0a7d740a52e9f1d299e.jpeg

That’s triple coupons. Analog. Sunday paper. Scissors, don’t get excited not lesbian scissors, old fat grandma scissors but don’t use her fabric scissors she’ll rip your face off. Now get to cutting.

Edited by troph
Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, troph said:

That’s triple coupons. Analog. Sunday paper. Scissors, don’t get excited not lesbian scissors, old fat grandma scissors but don’t use her fabric scissors she’ll rip your face off. Now get to cutting.

Damn. Fabric scissors took me back instantly. Well done. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure why you called me out, but hey, it's a challenge.  I downloaded the data and it appears to me that the tweet you linked represents a classic case of saying data say one thing when in reality they say another.  If I plot the month-to-month change in that metric, it's pretty clear that prices have STABILIZED over that time frame.  Just because a chart looks hyperbolic doesn't mean it is.  Good luck in your next fishing expedition, and please ignore my refusal to fuck with Excel any more than I already have.  Next?

image.thumb.png.7e6300f0e01e524c75391d3aa3aa81a6.png

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...