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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?


Reagan1k

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...  the share of credit card debt falling behind for the first time climbed to 8% in the third quarter. That’s up from 6.5% in the first quarter of 2023.

It’s been more than a decade since the share of 30-day credit card delinquency was that high, according to household debt statistics from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

At a time when markets wonder about the ongoing strength of consumers and their mood, new Goldman Sachs estimates say credit card delinquencies will keep rising in the new year.

The rate of new credit card delinquencies will climb to 9.5% by the first half of 2024 before it eases to around 9% by the end of the year, researchers said in a Thursday note. Low-income card holders will be strained the most, they added.
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Data is showing more people missing mortgage payments. The default rates on past-due Federal Housing Administration loans reached a nine-year high in November.

Though overall mortgage delinquency rates are still below pre-pandemic levels, it’s a trend “worth watching” one observer said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-people-fell-behind-on-credit-card-bills-this-year-heres-how-rough-it-could-get-in-2024-7697ab50

 

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47 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Here is more from the article you posted 

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Reassuringly, the recent rise in the delinquency rate does not appear to have been caused by distress in the labor market or unsustainable spending,” they wrote, going on to say that credit card data suggests people have “have pulled back their spending from elevated peaks in 2021 to be more in line with their incomes.”

Almost half of people (44%) said they wanted to save money, reduce spending and pay off debts in the new year, according to a YouGov poll on resolutions for 2024. The personal finance resolution was the third-ranked goal, behind eating healthier and losing weight.

But the delinquency drumbeat is getting picked up elsewhere.

Data is showing more people missing mortgage payments. The default rates on past-due Federal Housing Administration loans reached a nine-year high in November. 

Though overall mortgage delinquency rates are still below pre-pandemic levels, it’s a trend “worth watching” one observer said.

I know you want the market to crash but the numbers don’t back it up 

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2 hours ago, Parliament said:

Inflation is high, my stock portfolio is higher.  Should I be whining?

No-

 The top 10% owns 89% of the stocks in this country, meaning the bottom 90% owns just 11% of the stocks.

 

Inflation is not high 2023 vs 2022, it was the 24 consecutive months prior of record high inflation that did the damage. 
 

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/10/ownership-inequality-in-the-stock-market/#:~:text=The top 1% now owns,just 11% of the stocks.

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2 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

No-

 The top 10% owns 89% of the stocks in this country, meaning the bottom 90% owns just 11% of the stocks.

 

Inflation is not high 2023 vs 2022, it was the 24 consecutive months prior of record high inflation that did the damage. 

And one step of further division, the top 1% owns 53% of stocks in the country. The gains and growth of the stock market aren't being realized uniformly. Wage earners have been getting fuckin spitroasted

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On 12/21/2023 at 3:20 PM, Ghost of LL said:

I don't know the actual cost.  But there's a cost of maintaining the physical plant of the reserve.  And then there's the cost of acquiring the petroleum.

Without going CR, let’s just say we spend plenty of money on a lot more frivolous or suspect shit than storage of the world’s most important commodity.  

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5 hours ago, Captainant said:

And one step of further division, the top 1% owns 53% of stocks in the country. The gains and growth of the stock market aren't being realized uniformly. Wage earners have been getting fuckin spitroasted

And when the market melts down, they’ll own and realize most of the losses.   When 90% of your wealth is tied up in stocks, that shit tends to happen.  

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8 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Tell me you’re a millennial without telling me you’re a millennial.

FFS I wish you stupid fucks would look at something that goes back more than 15 minutes.

Tell me you are in the top 20% of household incomes ($130k) without telling me your in the top 20% of household incomes. 

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1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Tell me you are in the top 20% of household incomes ($130k) without telling me your in the top 20% of household incomes. 

I believe his point was talking about historical inflation. I have a friend who bought his first house for 15 1/2% interest. The interest rate was 13% when I bought my first house. We have been living in a low interest bubble for quite some time. While that is great, it is absolutely not the norm in our country forever.   Somewhere, I have an old WIN button from the Jimmy Carter era, which signifies Whip Inflation Now.   I recall at the time some utility companies had 19% bonds you could lock into.   

I’m not saying that the increase in inflation is a good thing, but people bitching about 6 or 7 or 8% do indeed have a limited worldview because of their age.  This obviously does not affect people who are suffering right now.

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2 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Tell me you are in the top 20% of household incomes ($130k) without telling me your in the top 20% of household incomes. 

You underestimate my income… a lot. But my income has nothing to do with you calling the last couple of years “24 consecutive months of record inflation.”  I guess we’re going to pretend the late 70’s early 80’s didn’t happen. 

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12 hours ago, bernorange said:

It's not apples to apples to compare CPI over long stretches of time because the calculation criteria changes.

https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Yeah guys, just look at this fucking weirdo anti-Fed website I found. The government is lying to you. Wake up sheeple. 

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On 9/1/2023 at 9:02 AM, Cheeseweasel said:

90, 92, and 2016. 

So, if I recall correctly, tuition for 90 and 92 was less than about $1000/year (>$3000 for the professional graduate degree), which makes the ROI calculation a lot less critical.  Like, non-critical.

By 2016, presumably, you are about 40 something and making an informed cost-benefit decision on the ROI of the tuition, which has increased about 20x.

Yes, it is true that people make lousy cost-benefit decisions on education, particularly when they can't do it on a cash basis or nearly so.  But, like home ownership, the "incentives" to do it can overwhelm good decision-making.

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On 12/23/2023 at 10:59 PM, Gatorubet said:

I believe his point was talking about historical inflation. I have a friend who bought his first house for 15 1/2% interest. The interest rate was 13% when I bought my first house. We have been living in a low interest bubble for quite some time. While that is great, it is absolutely not the norm in our country forever.   Somewhere, I have an old WIN button from the Jimmy Carter era, which signifies Whip Inflation Now.   I recall at the time some utility companies had 19% bonds you could lock into.   

I’m not saying that the increase in inflation is a good thing, but people bitching about 6 or 7 or 8% do indeed have a limited worldview because of their age.  This obviously does not affect people who are suffering right now.

 

The wild part is I had god knows how many conversations over the past 10 years that this bizarre no interest rate environment has to end at some point. It lasted waaaay longer than I had ever dreamed it would. I remember my first mortgage was 6.75%, and it was a killer deal.

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1 hour ago, G650 said:

 

The wild part is I had god knows how many conversations over the past 10 years that this bizarre no interest rate environment has to end at some point. It lasted waaaay longer than I had ever dreamed it would. I remember my first mortgage was 6.75%, and it was a killer deal.

I agree with all of this. 

However, I keep having the thought that the current Federal debt at historically average rates is a catastrophe.  It would probably be best if we(the royal we) had the fortitude to deal with it and the austerity it will cause.  I don't think we do.

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1 hour ago, G650 said:

 

The wild part is I had god knows how many conversations over the past 10 years that this bizarre no interest rate environment has to end at some point. It lasted waaaay longer than I had ever dreamed it would. I remember my first mortgage was 6.75%, and it was a killer deal.

I'm locked in on mine from 2010 at 3.875%.  Pretty much resigned to the fact that I'll never get that deal again.

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4 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm locked in on mine from 2010 at 3.875%.  Pretty much resigned to the fact that I'll never get that deal again.

2.625 here and feels like I really fucked up not leveling up a few levels at the time.  Oh, well. Maybe next time we get decades of free money I’ll remember that lesson.   

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On 12/24/2023 at 8:57 PM, bernorange said:

It's not apples to apples to compare CPI over long stretches of time because the calculation criteria changes.

https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Ahh, good ol ' Shadowstats. The website that cranks and hacks trot out every so often to show that the "real" unemployment rate is actually 25% or something (usually referenced when there's a Democrat in office).

They get their "data" by literally just making shit up. They take the official reported numbers for CPI, GDP, jobs...etc. and then just tack on or subtract a large percentage they've made up (whichever makes the number look worse) and say "these are what the numbers should be if calculated the right way before they started started fudging the numbers in (insert a year during the Clinton administration)."

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1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

Ahh, good ol ' Shadowstats. The website that cranks and hacks trot out every so often to show that the "real" unemployment rate is actually 25% or something (usually referenced when there's a Democrat in office).

They get their "data" by literally just making shit up. They take the official reported numbers for CPI, GDP, jobs...etc. and then just tack on or subtract a large percentage they've made up (whichever makes the number look worse) and say "these are what the numbers should be if calculated the right way before they started started fudging the numbers in (insert a year during the Clinton administration)."

I added the missing data in their graph:

image.png.a9251e2a04dc282a9acb7c1ff7d17ccc.png

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Pepsi and 7up canned from supermarket shelves over ‘unacceptable’ price rises

A supermarket chain has said it will no longer sell Pepsi and 7up in protest against “unacceptable” price rises.French retail giant Carrefour said it plans to ditch PepsiCo products after repeated price increases despite the cost of living crisis.

Shelves once stocked with PepsiCo drinks will be now accompanied by a note that reads: “We are no longer selling this brand due to unacceptable price increases.” The grocery giant, which has more than 12,000 stores worldwide, said the signs will only appear in France.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pepsi-7up-canned-supermarket-shelves-125033648.html

I point this out because Pepsi is own by PepsiCo, which also owns the Doritos brand. I mentioned a bit ago how the price of those chips has gone up 80% since inflation hit and I didn't buy it for a second that the cost of producing and getting them to store shelves had risen 80%. Looks like I'm not the only one.

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On 12/26/2023 at 4:34 PM, fattyflattie said:

2.625 here and feels like I really fucked up not leveling up a few levels at the time.  Oh, well. Maybe next time we get decades of free money I’ll remember that lesson.   

Yeah, I took my 4% 30 year to a 2.75% 15 year.  Only paying about $200 more/month but LOVE seeing that principal shed away each month.

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1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Wage growth is a fun number to toss in because it includes the top flight that are taking the lions share of wage growth by dollar. Sure, you can say "hourly workers got a 50% pay bump!" But going from $12 to $17 an hour ain't gonna pull anyone out of desperation and poverty

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40 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Wage growth is a fun number to toss in because it includes the top flight that are taking the lions share of wage growth by dollar. Sure, you can say "hourly workers got a 50% pay bump!" But going from $12 to $17 an hour ain't gonna pull anyone out of desperation and poverty

Today I learned 5/12=50%

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3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

zerohedge.com. Same thing.

What does the phrase "zero hedge" mean, anyway?  A zero cost hedge?  No such thing exists, right?  Insurance costs money.  Buy a long call, it'll cost you.  Buy a put to hedge your long stock, it'll cost you.  Buy homeowner's insurance, it'll cost you.

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On 1/5/2024 at 10:39 AM, Captainant said:

Wage growth is a fun number to toss in because it includes the top flight that are taking the lions share of wage growth by dollar. Sure, you can say "hourly workers got a 50% pay bump!" But going from $12 to $17 an hour ain't gonna pull anyone out of desperation and poverty

Let's not attack good news because it's not perfect. Wage growth has been better for 75% of workers. 

image.thumb.png.fda632eb94de5e5a328017a25f9acf9d.png

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4 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Let's not attack good news because it's not perfect. Wage growth has been better for 75% of workers. 

image.thumb.png.fda632eb94de5e5a328017a25f9acf9d.png

75th percentile means that it's higher than 75% of wages. The top 25% has the highest wage growth according to this chart, and the group that makes more than 25% of the population (the bottom 25%) saw their wages fall. 

 

Also, the average is above the median which is another indicator of top-heavy distribution 

Edited by Captainant
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