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The US has multiple Rare Earth resources, one being Round Top mountain out near Sierra Blanca:

https://www.usgs.gov/news/technical-announcement/usgs-updates-mineral-database-gallium-deposits-united-states

But US mining corporations are having difficulty raising the capital to get mining operations off the ground:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561612-texas-mineral-resources-round-top-seems-stalled

If this isn't a time to get funding from the US government on basis of national and economic security, then when? There is more than enough money in the PUF alone to fund this venture, and it seems like a good one. It would really drive home, "What Starts Here Changes the World." (Walter Cronkite)

CHIEF

Edited by CHIEF
Walter
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16 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

We’ll see how far it goes. Both sides have a lot of weapons at their disposal. 

I’m all in favor for as much of a decoupling from China as we can manage, but I have no confidence the American people are ready for the pain that will involve. People have been sounding the alarm on this stuff for over 20 years, to no real avail. 

But make no mistake. China sees it as their destiny to replace the US at the top of the world’s pyramid. They see us as lazy, decadent, soft, and tired of the responsibility of being a world superpower. They’re ready to step in and remake the economic order to their advantage. They’ve done a great job of establishing an industrial base to do just that, but the problem with using weapons is that once you do, the other side starts coming up with counters. My hope is that Chiba overextended their hand and helps the west overcome their addiction to Chinese market incentives. 

Here’s a decent WaPo article on how we got here. Not exhaustive by any means. Many books have been written on the subject. But a decent quick overview. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/07/03/why-the-fight-for-critical-minerals-is-heating-up/5e9959b6-19b2-11ee-be41-a036f4b098ec_story.html

They monopolized rare earth minerals and other metals by having the government subsidize the industry. That drove the cost so low it put other manufacturers elsewhere out of business. 

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24 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

But make no mistake. China sees it as their destiny to replace the US at the top of the world’s pyramid. They see us as lazy, decadent, soft, and tired of the responsibility of being a world superpower. They’re ready to step in and remake the economic order to their advantage. They’ve done a great job of establishing an industrial base to do just that, but the problem with using weapons is that once you do, the other side starts coming up with counters. My hope is that Chiba overextended their hand and helps the west overcome their addiction to Chinese market incentives. 

China is also on a timer - not to beat the Zeihan drum, but they have a demographic issue that they created with their one-child policy, and it's finally coming home to roost - the products of that policy are being forced to take care of their older/elderly parents and it's going to impact the work force, both as the older generation(s) exit the workforce over the next 10-20 years, plus their replacements won't be as numerous. And because of the whole taking care of the parents/elderly thing, it could impact people getting married/having kids. 

All of that is kind of a slow burn - they can't stop it for now, but they have some time to try and get control of it.  If they get in a situation where more Western companies are moving manufacturing to Vietnam, India, etc., it'll take those long-term problems and make them serious short-term problems as well.

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On 7/5/2023 at 7:25 AM, Schulz2.0 said:
2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Maybe they can take care of their grandparents while their parents stay in the workforce.  Just kidding, they are too busy applying for grad school in the USA.

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On 7/3/2023 at 11:22 AM, SL Xpress said:

We’ll see how far it goes. Both sides have a lot of weapons at their disposal. 

I’m all in favor for as much of a decoupling from China as we can manage, but I have no confidence the American people are ready for the pain that will involve. People have been sounding the alarm on this stuff for over 20 years, to no real avail. 

But make no mistake. China sees it as their destiny to replace the US at the top of the world’s pyramid. They see us as lazy, decadent, soft, and tired of the responsibility of being a world superpower. They’re ready to step in and remake the economic order to their advantage. They’ve done a great job of establishing an industrial base to do just that, but the problem with using weapons is that once you do, the other side starts coming up with counters. My hope is that Chiba overextended their hand and helps the west overcome their addiction to Chinese market incentives. 

Here’s a decent WaPo article on how we got here. Not exhaustive by any means. Many books have been written on the subject. But a decent quick overview. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/07/03/why-the-fight-for-critical-minerals-is-heating-up/5e9959b6-19b2-11ee-be41-a036f4b098ec_story.html

That sounds like the last Asian power who tried to fuck with us.

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8 hours ago, SamsCorner said:

That sounds like the last Asian power who tried to fuck with us.

Maybe. But the US isn't the same place it was in 1941, and China of 2023 is not Japan of the 1940s. 

China has their own set of issues. Primarily, they're an autocratic society with all the advantages and disadvantages of being one. But to make the equivalency between them and Japan from World War II is specious.

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I sort of agree with you, but if history has shown that certain societies are warrior societies and others aren't.  China is an economic power certainly, but when was they last time they fought and won a war?  There's more to military tradition than most might think.

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On 7/3/2023 at 11:22 AM, SL Xpress said:

I’m all in favor for as much of a decoupling from China as we can manage, but I have no confidence the American people are ready for the pain that will involve. People have been sounding the alarm on this stuff for over 20 years, to no real avail.

I think that's a little unfair.  The Obama pivot to Asia and the Trans Pacific Partnership were both an attempt at a policy and economic realignment. 

I don't know how we can discuss this without examining the politics about it, but plenty of politicians on both sides in the past couple of decades have been vocal supporters in this direction.  Unfortunately, it's not a particularly compelling story to tell and the news media prefers the sugar rush of controversy and politicians willing to exploit it. 

This is picking nits a little, but I also think 20 years ago we thought both Russia and China would be more friendly world actors by now.  It's really just the last ten that things have gone to shit. 

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3 hours ago, LCHorn said:

I also think 20 years ago we thought both Russia and China would be more friendly world actors by now.  It's really just the last ten that things have gone to shit. 

 

A lot has changed in 20 years with those two.  I think they also thought they would be more mainstream world citizens by now.  They've learned how difficult it will be to compete economically with the West, and they're scared that they'll always be behind.  They will be until they learn to keep up but the learning curve has them looking for alternatives.  

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7 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

Maybe. But the US isn't the same place it was in 1941, and China of 2023 is not Japan of the 1940s. 

China has their own set of issues. Primarily, they're an autocratic society with all the advantages and disadvantages of being one. But to make the equivalency between them and Japan from World War II is specious.

Indubitably 

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On 7/3/2023 at 11:46 AM, Schulz2.0 said:

They monopolized rare earth minerals and other metals by having the government subsidize the industry. That drove the cost so low it put other manufacturers elsewhere out of business. 

Now that they are cutting supply, costs will go up and new players will come online and ramp up their own production. Won't happen overnight, but China is either going to back track or they will be out of the raw materials market.

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9 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

Now that they are cutting supply, costs will go up and new players will come online and ramp up their own production. Won't happen overnight, but China is either going to back track or they will be out of the raw materials market.

It's not like their isn't plenty of rare earth metals, here, in the US. We just need to go ahead and cut the cord and mine them here, and the US needs to produce 100% of our own semiconductors and microchips.

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20 hours ago, LCHorn said:

I think that's a little unfair.  The Obama pivot to Asia and the Trans Pacific Partnership were both an attempt at a policy and economic realignment. 

I don't know how we can discuss this without examining the politics about it, but plenty of politicians on both sides in the past couple of decades have been vocal supporters in this direction.  Unfortunately, it's not a particularly compelling story to tell and the news media prefers the sugar rush of controversy and politicians willing to exploit it. 

This is picking nits a little, but I also think 20 years ago we thought both Russia and China would be more friendly world actors by now.  It's really just the last ten that things have gone to shit. 

No cr. The U.S., with all its faults, wants to lead the world and wants to believe the world is more civilized than certain parts of the world really are. It's unfortunate that China and Russia, still and over the last decade, have proven right, politically, what many in this country wanted to prove wrong.  Both sides of the aisle serve their purpose.

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2 hours ago, CHIEF said:

It's not like their isn't plenty of rare earth metals, here, in the US. We just need to go ahead and cut the cord and mine them here, and the US needs to produce 100% of our own semiconductors and microchips.

CHIEF

That's not really feasible from a cost perspective. We already make a decent amount of high end chips. Making low/medium end stuff in places like Mexico or Colombia makes sense.

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That's not really feasible from a cost perspective. We already make a decent amount of high end chips. Making low/medium end stuff in places like Mexico or Colombia makes sense.

As a fan of chips and salsa, I take umbrage with this. Mexican chips/totopos are top-notch.
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12 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

That's not really feasible from a cost perspective. We already make a decent amount of high end chips. Making low/medium end stuff in places like Mexico or Colombia makes sense.

Yep. At least get it back in our hemisphere. Nuevo Laredo, Juarez, or TJ, close to the border.

CHIEF

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Spent the week with a family member who is a real-deal East Asian affairs expert. Asked him to give me his “China TED talk” - what does the best decade look like? His thoughts:

Peace and prosperity. Our relations with China hit their low point, and are now slowly improving. Xi securing his grip on power is actually helpful, as he’s no longer distracted by those concerns. And he’s got plenty of domestic economic concerns he can and should be worried about. China needs decent ties with the West, economically.

China regrets its choice to declare a special relationship with Russia. They thought Russia would waltz through Ukraine, and they were wrong (like so many were). Now, their relationship with Russia is a bit of an albatross, although they did manage to get a good decade concession on cheap energy from Russia, so that’s a win. China has also been told that if they arm Russia, they face real-deal crippling sanctions that they absolutely cannot afford (yes, some small arms shipments will make it through, because China is big and not entirely cohesive, but nothing major).

As for Taiwan, the very strong expectation is the status quo and equilibrium. There is nothing for Xi to gain politically by invading Taiwan. And, at present and for the near future, China simply couldn’t pull it off. The strait is too big - big fat target ships would be out there a long time, and with modern satellite tech, the whole world would see all buildup amd movement. There’s no easy landing spots; where there deep water, there are steep mountains right up to the water. Where there are good beaches for landing, the water is shallow. They’d have to capture a port, with paratroopers. And Hostomel in Ukraine showed them that’s actually quite hard. And military defeat or setbacks wouldn’t help Xi at all. Expect more of the same. China continues its “one China” position, we continue our support of Taiwan without referring to it as independent. Oh, and the local Taiwanese political landscape, which once had an element that looked favorably on possible reunification, has shifted. China’s crackdowns in Hong Kong took care of that - they see now how China doesn’t keep its promises of “two systems.”

China is also hemmed in by its neighbors. The newly strengthened ROK-Japan relationship is very important. But it’s also surrounded by Vietnam and the Philippines, which are not friendly to it. And the Aussies are a real thorn, too. China has no easy path to military expansion in any meaningful way. It needs to work with them more, as opposed to against them.

China knows that it needs to expand its economy beyond manufacturing exports, which means it has to look inward. Solving those problems, and its huge demographic problem, are going to take lots of time and attention.

What China wants to get out of its place in the world isn’t conquest or domination, but status. It wants to be a player. And it’s already done so - it brokered the peace deal in the Yemen civil war. But as my cousin’s Chinese contacts have explained, “when it comes to global diplomacy, China is an adolescent. It is still going to make mistakes, but it is learning.”

Thought it all was very interesting. And we’ve been having these conversations for 20+ years; he’s been almost entirely right on such matters over the years.

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9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Spent the week with a family member who is a real-deal East Asian affairs expert. Asked him to give me his “China TED talk” - what does the best decade look like? His thoughts:

Peace and prosperity. Our relations with China hit their low point, and are now slowly improving. Xi securing his grip on power is actually helpful, as he’s no longer distracted by those concerns. And he’s got plenty of domestic economic concerns he can and should be worried about. China needs decent ties with the West, economically.

China regrets its choice to declare a special relationship with Russia. They thought Russia would waltz through Ukraine, and they were wrong (like so many were). Now, their relationship with Russia is a bit of an albatross, although they did manage to get a good decade concession on cheap energy from Russia, so that’s a win. China has also been told that if they arm Russia, they face real-deal crippling sanctions that they absolutely cannot afford (yes, some small arms shipments will make it through, because China is big and not entirely cohesive, but nothing major).

As for Taiwan, the very strong expectation is the status quo and equilibrium. There is nothing for Xi to gain politically by invading Taiwan. And, at present and for the near future, China simply couldn’t pull it off. The strait is too big - big fat target ships would be out there a long time, and with modern satellite tech, the whole world would see all buildup amd movement. There’s no easy landing spots; where there deep water, there are steep mountains right up to the water. Where there are good beaches for landing, the water is shallow. They’d have to capture a port, with paratroopers. And Hostomel in Ukraine showed them that’s actually quite hard. And military defeat or setbacks wouldn’t help Xi at all. Expect more of the same. China continues its “one China” position, we continue our support of Taiwan without referring to it as independent. Oh, and the local Taiwanese political landscape, which once had an element that looked favorably on possible reunification, has shifted. China’s crackdowns in Hong Kong took care of that - they see now how China doesn’t keep its promises of “two systems.”

China is also hemmed in by its neighbors. The newly strengthened ROK-Japan relationship is very important. But it’s also surrounded by Vietnam and the Philippines, which are not friendly to it. And the Aussies are a real thorn, too. China has no easy path to military expansion in any meaningful way. It needs to work with them more, as opposed to against them.

China knows that it needs to expand its economy beyond manufacturing exports, which means it has to look inward. Solving those problems, and its huge demographic problem, are going to take lots of time and attention.

What China wants to get out of its place in the world isn’t conquest or domination, but status. It wants to be a player. And it’s already done so - it brokered the peace deal in the Yemen civil war. But as my cousin’s Chinese contacts have explained, “when it comes to global diplomacy, China is an adolescent. It is still going to make mistakes, but it is learning.”

Thought it all was very interesting. And we’ve been having these conversations for 20+ years; he’s been almost entirely right on such matters over the years.

This statement doesn't comport with the rest of the feedback to me. Do they regret that Russia failed or regret the decision tree that led to supporting Russia. I think they still want to stick it to the West in any way possible and Russia is a great way to go it without it coming back at China directly. My inclination is that if it's not Russia, or North Korea, it'll be some other country. 

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This statement doesn't comport with the rest of the feedback to me. Do they regret that Russia failed or regret the decision tree that led to supporting Russia. I think they still want to stick it to the West in any way possible and Russia is a great way to go it without it coming back at China directly. My inclination is that if it's not Russia, or North Korea, it'll be some other country. 

They regret being on “team Russia.” The ties between Russia and China aren’t natural. Russia is (as a nation state) Moscow and St Pete, not the Russian east. Their ties have always been of convenience, and “enemy of my enemy” type. But even that is too much - China does not see us as an enemy, but as a competitor. And they are quite serious about competing, but that’s different than being outright hostile. They want to be similarly hegemonic and economically as powerful as we are. They aren’t interested in “sticking it to the West” just because, or even because they are weak (because they aren’t - not like Russia is, for example). Instead, they are interested in building more economic power, and beating us out in certain areas.
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26 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


They regret being on “team Russia.” The ties between Russia and China aren’t natural. Russia is (as a nation state) Moscow and St Pete, not the Russian east. Their ties have always been of convenience, and “enemy of my enemy” type. But even that is too much - China does not see us as an enemy, but as a competitor. And they are quite serious about competing, but that’s different than being outright hostile. They want to be similarly hegemonic and economically as powerful as we are. They aren’t interested in “sticking it to the West” just because, or even because they are weak (because they aren’t - not like Russia is, for example). Instead, they are interested in building more economic power, and beating us out in certain areas.

Not nit picking, but just interesting competing takes. Within this, they state that Xi views the west as a threat because we exist in general. It's hair splitting but I took away from it that Xi is more combative towards us at his core as Democratic ideals challenge his world view. 

*forgot part 1

 

 

 

Edited by SmokeyTheBear
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18 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Spent the week with a family member who is a real-deal East Asian affairs expert. Asked him to give me his “China TED talk” - what does the best decade look like? His thoughts:

Peace and prosperity. Our relations with China hit their low point, and are now slowly improving. Xi securing his grip on power is actually helpful, as he’s no longer distracted by those concerns. And he’s got plenty of domestic economic concerns he can and should be worried about. China needs decent ties with the West, economically.

China regrets its choice to declare a special relationship with Russia. They thought Russia would waltz through Ukraine, and they were wrong (like so many were). Now, their relationship with Russia is a bit of an albatross, although they did manage to get a good decade concession on cheap energy from Russia, so that’s a win. China has also been told that if they arm Russia, they face real-deal crippling sanctions that they absolutely cannot afford (yes, some small arms shipments will make it through, because China is big and not entirely cohesive, but nothing major).

As for Taiwan, the very strong expectation is the status quo and equilibrium. There is nothing for Xi to gain politically by invading Taiwan. And, at present and for the near future, China simply couldn’t pull it off. The strait is too big - big fat target ships would be out there a long time, and with modern satellite tech, the whole world would see all buildup amd movement. There’s no easy landing spots; where there deep water, there are steep mountains right up to the water. Where there are good beaches for landing, the water is shallow. They’d have to capture a port, with paratroopers. And Hostomel in Ukraine showed them that’s actually quite hard. And military defeat or setbacks wouldn’t help Xi at all. Expect more of the same. China continues its “one China” position, we continue our support of Taiwan without referring to it as independent. Oh, and the local Taiwanese political landscape, which once had an element that looked favorably on possible reunification, has shifted. China’s crackdowns in Hong Kong took care of that - they see now how China doesn’t keep its promises of “two systems.”

China is also hemmed in by its neighbors. The newly strengthened ROK-Japan relationship is very important. But it’s also surrounded by Vietnam and the Philippines, which are not friendly to it. And the Aussies are a real thorn, too. China has no easy path to military expansion in any meaningful way. It needs to work with them more, as opposed to against them.

China knows that it needs to expand its economy beyond manufacturing exports, which means it has to look inward. Solving those problems, and its huge demographic problem, are going to take lots of time and attention.

What China wants to get out of its place in the world isn’t conquest or domination, but status. It wants to be a player. And it’s already done so - it brokered the peace deal in the Yemen civil war. But as my cousin’s Chinese contacts have explained, “when it comes to global diplomacy, China is an adolescent. It is still going to make mistakes, but it is learning.”

Thought it all was very interesting. And we’ve been having these conversations for 20+ years; he’s been almost entirely right on such matters over the years.

So what does the worst decade look like?

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I don't know what you guys are talking about. Things are going great in China.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/21/facekinis-become-all-the-rage-in-china-as-temperatures-soar

 

5497.jpg?width=620&dpr=2&s=none

 

 

‘Facekinis’ become popular in China as temperatures soar

People buying full-face masks alongside hats, fans – and hats with inbuilt fans – as temperatures rise above 35C

 
Reuters
Fri 21 Jul 2023 03.18 EDT
  •  
  •  
  •  
 
 

In scorching Beijing, “facekinis” are the hottest new fashion as surging temperatures shatter records.

With the air temperature rising above 35C (95F) and the ground surface temperature soaring as high as 80C in some parts of the country, residents and visitors have taken to carrying portable fans and covering themselves up to avoid getting burnt. Some hats even have fans built in.

 

Facekinis – full-face masks with holes for the wearer’s eyes and nose – separate sleeves to cover arms, as well as wide-brimmed hats and lightweight jackets made out of UV-resistant fabric, have become especially popular.

“Compared to before the pandemic, two or three years ago, this year is much, much better than previous years. Sales volume is definitely up a lot this year,” said a salesperson, who gave her surname as Wang, who works in a shop that sells hats.

Many female consumers in east Asia favour fair skin, and sun protection products are also popular in neighbouring countries such as South Korea.

“The main concern I have is potential skin diseases, or developing sunspots,” said Li Xuyan, a 17-year-old student who was visiting a tourist area in Beijing with her mother, both wearing masks that covered most of their faces.

Chinese state television on Wednesday showed tourists taking selfies next to a 12-metre-tall thermometer that displayed a real-time surface temperature of 80C at the Flaming Mountains in Xinjiang.

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80 degrees Celsius?  Is that evenfucking possible?

And conveniently their #2 diplomat/foreign minister has been missing for three weeks?

There's only one man that can save the planet from this madness.  his name?  You guessed it! 

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On 7/23/2023 at 6:32 PM, mdmost said:

I don't know what you guys are talking about. Things are going great in China.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/21/facekinis-become-all-the-rage-in-china-as-temperatures-soar

 

5497.jpg?width=620&dpr=2&s=none

 

 

‘Facekinis’ become popular in China as temperatures soar

People buying full-face masks alongside hats, fans – and hats with inbuilt fans – as temperatures rise above 35C

 
 
Reuters
Fri 21 Jul 2023 03.18 EDT
  •  
  •  
  •  
 
 

In scorching Beijing, “facekinis” are the hottest new fashion as surging temperatures shatter records.

With the air temperature rising above 35C (95F) and the ground surface temperature soaring as high as 80C in some parts of the country, residents and visitors have taken to carrying portable fans and covering themselves up to avoid getting burnt. Some hats even have fans built in.

 

Facekinis – full-face masks with holes for the wearer’s eyes and nose – separate sleeves to cover arms, as well as wide-brimmed hats and lightweight jackets made out of UV-resistant fabric, have become especially popular.

“Compared to before the pandemic, two or three years ago, this year is much, much better than previous years. Sales volume is definitely up a lot this year,” said a salesperson, who gave her surname as Wang, who works in a shop that sells hats.

Many female consumers in east Asia favour fair skin, and sun protection products are also popular in neighbouring countries such as South Korea.

“The main concern I have is potential skin diseases, or developing sunspots,” said Li Xuyan, a 17-year-old student who was visiting a tourist area in Beijing with her mother, both wearing masks that covered most of their faces.

Chinese state television on Wednesday showed tourists taking selfies next to a 12-metre-tall thermometer that displayed a real-time surface temperature of 80C at the Flaming Mountains in Xinjiang.

And it will also make facial recognition software ineffective.  I'm sure no one in China cares about that side effect.

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1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

From Lithgow Correctional Centre, where he’s being held, Duggan told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) that he was “living a nightmare.” “I strenuously reject the indictment in its entirety,” he said.

 

Is this guy a Surly?

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“Sure, yeah I taught some Chinese guys. But they were just part of China’s expansive and well known general aviation community. Just some regular guys who wanted to learn about regular stuff like landing on aircraft carriers and fighter tactics. Totally normal $100 hamburger stuff. Nothing to see here.”
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'"It has always been portrayed that it is China that is imposing its will on smaller countries, but small countries like us have our own agency," says Chang, the Universiti Malaya professor. "We can make things go really bad as well for China."'

https://www.npr.org/2023/07/26/1183152803/malaysia-china-belt-and-road-rail-infrastructure

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/29/chinas-graduates-unconvinced-by-calls-to-toil-in-countryside

China's unemployment numbers for 16-24 year Olds is up to 21.3% as of June. The official communist party has been saying they need to go to rural areas and work the fields.

"In July, an editorial in the People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist party, declared: "When you are young, if you choose hardship,you will choose harvest, and if you choose dedication, you will choose nobility." Readers were unimpressed. One comment archived by China Digital Times, a website that tracks China's internet, summed up the mood: "This group of assholes really has been estranged from the masses for far too long.""

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12 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/29/chinas-graduates-unconvinced-by-calls-to-toil-in-countryside

China's unemployment numbers for 16-24 year Olds is up to 21.3% as of June. The official communist party has been saying they need to go to rural areas and work the fields.

"In July, an editorial in the People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist party, declared: "When you are young, if you choose hardship,you will choose harvest, and if you choose dedication, you will choose nobility." Readers were unimpressed. One comment archived by China Digital Times, a website that tracks China's internet, summed up the mood: "This group of assholes really has been estranged from the masses for far too long.""

New surly motto.

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