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Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality


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42 minutes ago, statsman said:

Is $90M for real?

The Ags, Buffs, Huskers and Tigers got out for $20M each, but we need to pay $90M?

I guess the way to swallow that pill is to say that’s the price of never, ever going to Waco, Lubbock or Stillwater ever again. (FW is ok, but we’re going to need to see some 2 home, 1 away contracts to start clawing back on the $90M). 

Agreed with general sentiment but I'll really miss Stillwater.  Fuck Waco and Lubbock.  

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3 minutes ago, ImissWallyPryor said:

I thought is was $80 million, but now it’s $90?  Does the buyout go down with each remaining year of the GOR? That’s what I would have expected. If it doesn’t go down, why stay one minute longer than we have to (assuming the money can be wrangled)?

80 million. 90 million. Whatever it takes. 

We can't leave yet because OU is cash strapped. We tethered ourselves to CFB's version of a 30K millionaire. No wonder so many Sooners love to move to the DFW area. 

Edited by mdmost
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4 minutes ago, mdmost said:

80 million. 90 million. Whatever it takes. 

We can't leave yet because OU is cash strapped. We tethered ourselves to CFB's version of a 30K millionaire. No wonder so many Sooners love to move to the DFW area. 

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20 minutes ago, ImissWallyPryor said:

I thought is was $80 million, but now it’s $90?  Does the buyout go down with each remaining year of the GOR? That’s what I would have expected. If it doesn’t go down, why stay one minute longer than we have to (assuming the money can be wrangled)?

I think it’s equivalent to the next two years of media rights so now we are on the hook for higher since it’s a year later

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5 minutes ago, mdmost said:

80 million. 90 million. Whatever it takes. 

We can't leave yet because OU is cash strapped. We tethered ourselves to CFB's version of a 30K millionaire. No wonder so many Sooners love to move to the DFW area. 

Why do we have to wait on them? The Red River Shootout can be OOC. We’re already the bad guys in this deal, even though the story from day one was that it was OU that came to Texas to say it was time to “approach the SEC” (SEC > ESPN > OU > Texas = Texas+OU > SEC).

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7 minutes ago, GTNY said:

I think it’s equivalent to the next two years of media rights so now we are on the hook for higher since it’s a year later

Thanks. I totally forgot that. I am ashamed.

I’m obviously still in the Minors on this subject, but I’m assuming that the media rights per team will go down when the new members join (also assuming the media rights deal isn’t changed), and that’s when OU can afford to bolt.

Edited by ImissWallyPryor
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53 minutes ago, ImissWallyPryor said:

Why do we have to wait on them? The Red River Shootout can be OOC. We’re already the bad guys in this deal, even though the story from day one was that it was OU that came to Texas to say it was time to “approach the SEC” (SEC > ESPN > OU > Texas = Texas+OU > SEC).

I have no doubts that ESPN could make OU whole somehow. I know there was a cease and desist for them trying to dissolve the B12, but in reality, once OU leaves for the SEC officially they can do whatever they want. OU could sign some sort of exclusive content deal for 90 million or some shit like that the day they hit the SEC. The value of TX and OU in the SEC for the next 40 years is >>>> $180 million exit fee. Hell, it could eclipse that figure in the first 3 years. You are pretty much guaranteeing at least 6 more annual games that are in the top echelon of viewed games. Texas vs LSU, Bama, and aggy. OU vs LSU, Bama, and aggy plus at least one marquee cross divisional game against a Florida or Georgia during that time for each school. Not to mention TX/OU will somehow be bigger than it already is.  

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20 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

Well with oil prices climbing their financial outlook may improve. 

Every oil price rise is followed by an oil price fall. Like death and taxes. After 25 years in the industry, I’m glad to be off that rollercoaster. 

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5 hours ago, ImissWallyPryor said:

I thought is was $80 million, but now it’s $90?  Does the buyout go down with each remaining year of the GOR? That’s what I would have expected. If it doesn’t go down, why stay one minute longer than we have to (assuming the money can be wrangled)?

the buyout is not related to the GOR in any way

the buyout is in the 99 year contract for conference membership that is a separate contact from the GOR....the buyout is equal to the prior two years of conference distributions which will be about $45 million per year at the end of the GOR

the GOR is about media rights and nothing else there is no buyout in the GOR because the purpose of it was to make a conference member have to fight in court to retain their media rights if they were to leave

at best Texas and OU can try and leave and fight in court while the Big 12 holds the final year of distributions about $45 or $46 million while Texas and OU try and avoid paying for the prior year

but Texas and OU have a unique problem and that is the Big 12 99 year contract for conference membership requires any Big 12 membership to notify the conference within 12 hours of any contact by anyone related to leaving the Big 12 or switching conferences and in addition that member is to issue a written notice of disinterest in doing so to any party that contacts them

it is clear Texas and OU did not do that and they continued to vote on conference business including a vote (and holding discussions with the Big 12 and Big 12 media partners) about possibly extending the current Big 12 media contract

I think the courts would frown on a member not giving the required 12 hour notice of contact to leave the conference while also negotiating with the conference and conference media partners about extending an existing media contract and then (most likely) voting to decline to extend the contract with the current partners.....while also most likely working with one of the media partners to facilitate their move to another conference

I think the courts would not view that kindly.....it was said Texas had up to $120 million to leave ASAP and suddenly that died.....I am not sure if that is because OU lacks the cash or because a lot of interference between ESPN and others came to light and ESPN is scared to death of the implications of that and needs time to work things out with the Big 12 and hope that teams leaving at the end of GORs and after paying full exit fees calms the desire to head to court and drag ESPN in there

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5 hours ago, GTNY said:

I think it’s equivalent to the next two years of media rights so now we are on the hook for higher since it’s a year later

it is equal to the PRIOR two years of media rights

https://static.big12sports.com/custompages/pdfs/handbook/bylaws.pdf

Buyout Amount. Any Withdrawing Member shall pay to the Conference a commitment
buyout fee (the “Buyout Amount”) in an amount equal to the sum of the amount of
distributions that otherwise would be paid to the Member during the final two years of
its membership in the Conference.

 

here is the part about notification of contact to leave the conference

 

(C) if a third party offers to,
or attempts to induce a Member to, leave the Conference and/or breach or not to fully
perform its future obligations under the Grant of Rights Agreement and the Member
does not both (1) inform the Conference of such action as promptly as possible (but
in any event not later than twelve (12) hours after such action) and (2) immediately
and unconditionally reject that offer in a form and manner reasonably acceptable to
the Commissioner; or (D) if a Member otherwise takes or fails to take actions that are
determined by a Supermajority of Disinterested Directors to be contrary to the best
interests of the Conference taken as a whole

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22 hours ago, statsman said:

Is $90M for real?

The Ags, Buffs, Huskers and Tigers got out for $20M each, but we need to pay $90M?

I guess the way to swallow that pill is to say that’s the price of never, ever going to Waco, Lubbock or Stillwater ever again. (FW is ok, but we’re going to need to see some 2 home, 1 away contracts to start clawing back on the $90M). 

The Big 12 is going to fuck themselves by being a little bitch and not wanting to let go of the coattails.  One last payday...

When the contract expires, UT and OU will walk out with a "see ya later". "Yep, you got it... In court. Sue us bitches".  It will get tied up in court until the Big 12 comes unraveled.  Which will start when they see that first check without coattails to ride.  

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3 hours ago, Gaffords said:

The Big 12 is going to fuck themselves by being a little bitch and not wanting to let go of the coattails.  One last payday...

When the contract expires, UT and OU will walk out with a "see ya later". "Yep, you got it... In court. Sue us bitches".  It will get tied up in court until the Big 12 comes unraveled.  Which will start when they see that first check without coattails to ride.  

In theory they should be able to make ACC/PAC type of money in a new deal.  They're going to have average TV ratings in the ballpark of those two conferences after UT and OU leave.  The AAC was creeping up toward the PAC over the last few years and the newest version of the Big 12 will be quite a bit stronger than the AAC was.

I suspect that once the new deals are worked out that the Big 12 will start showing some more flexibility with the idea of letting UT and OU leave.  Iowa State's leadership might want to turn the screws to the two schools that are leaving but the Texhoma schools probably won't.  They're going to want UT, A&M, and OU on future schedules - and friendly relations in the event an SEC spot ever opens up (not to mention avoiding exit precedents they'd have to live up to themselves if they leave, too.) 

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I don’t see it. ACC and PAC are the big deals in their regions. In five years, a Saturday will have a TAMU/Arkansas game, an OU/Tennessee game and a Texas/Auburn game. Those games will be distributed through the day, but think of the sets tuned in. Now, think of the sets tuned in to OSU/Baylor (a 2021 B12 CG rematch). How will there be any more people tuning into that than half of those turned into one of the local SEC games?

It’s not about quality of play- it’s about fanbase size and national draw  

 

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2 hours ago, statsman said:

I don’t see it. ACC and PAC are the big deals in their regions. In five years, a Saturday will have a TAMU/Arkansas game, an OU/Tennessee game and a Texas/Auburn game. Those games will be distributed through the day, but think of the sets tuned in. Now, think of the sets tuned in to OSU/Baylor (a 2021 B12 CG rematch). How will there be any more people tuning into that than half of those turned into one of the local SEC games?

It’s not about quality of play- it’s about fanbase size and national draw  

 

That's the thing.  The ACC and PAC are not a big deal in their regions.  The coastal audiences do not care as much about college football in their footprints.  OSU/Baylor won't compete with the SEC but it will compete very well with Arizona State vs. UCLA or Florida State vs. Boston College. There's about to be a big gulf between the SEC/B1G and the ACC/PAC/B12.  But the Big 12 is in that 2nd group and not some place farther down.  

An elite ACC or PAC team will have some more national TV appeal than anyone in the Big 12 but the depth of interest below the top will be minimal in either of those two leagues.  The Big 12 slate of games has more depth of interest.  BYU and WVU consistently do pretty well on TV and the residents of Texas and Oklahoma leave their TV on all day watching college football.  Give it a decade and I expect the Big 12 to emerge as the clear 3rd in average TV ratings - as it has always been.  

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25 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Pay them nothing and leave. Let them sue and then hit them with delay delay delay. Then bring in the conference officiating bias as evidence they want Texas to leave. Then sue them for being a fraud of a conference.

747d73071ec0920220502aaa2e60bd15.jpg

 

 

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17 hours ago, camel at sea said:

That's the thing.  The ACC and PAC are not a big deal in their regions.  The coastal audiences do not care as much about college football in their footprints.  OSU/Baylor won't compete with the SEC but it will compete very well with Arizona State vs. UCLA or Florida State vs. Boston College. There's about to be a big gulf between the SEC/B1G and the ACC/PAC/B12.  But the Big 12 is in that 2nd group and not some place farther down.  

An elite ACC or PAC team will have some more national TV appeal than anyone in the Big 12 but the depth of interest below the top will be minimal in either of those two leagues.  The Big 12 slate of games has more depth of interest.  BYU and WVU consistently do pretty well on TV and the residents of Texas and Oklahoma leave their TV on all day watching college football.  Give it a decade and I expect the Big 12 to emerge as the clear 3rd in average TV ratings - as it has always been.  

Yeah, pretty much. The new Big 12 will be squarely in that second tier. Top tier is SEC/BIG, second is ACC, PAC, BIGXII, next are the G5, with AAC and MWC at the top there, and SBC closing in.

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18 hours ago, Nivek said:

Pay them nothing and leave. Let them sue and then hit them with delay delay delay. Then bring in the conference officiating bias as evidence they want Texas to leave. Then sue them for being a fraud of a conference.

This bravado always cracks me up. Media companies aren't going to breach contracts. A number will be negotiated and you'll be gone after next season. OU fans will take second mortgages on their doublewides to help them make the payment.

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17 hours ago, 'stache said:

This bravado always cracks me up. Media companies aren't going to breach contracts. A number will be negotiated and you'll be gone after next season. OU fans will take second mortgages on their doublewides to help them make the payment.

wait, you thought that was serious?

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Eh, fuck that. Gary Patterson talks more shit about Texas than anyone on the planet, including Bob fucking Stoops. He can go rot in the Sun Belt for all I care.
Is that what they call the Moncrief complex these days?

Lol, havent visited this thread in a while and it brought me back to this page..and post which aged like fine milk.
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22 hours ago, 'stache said:

This bravado always cracks me up. Media companies aren't going to breach contracts. A number will be negotiated and you'll be gone after next season. OU fans will take second mortgages on their doublewides to help them make the payment.

Let me follow up.  Contracts are broken and renegotiated all the time.  And using the delay tactics to test the durability of the contracts is not actually out of the question.   aggy, NU, Colorado, Mizzou all left the conference with a hell of a lot less of a payment and UT should use that to counter the bill.  The conference is broken and corrupt officiating is not only tolerated it is celebrated.    I also know that the conference has a chance of being relegated with the loss of TX and OUsux.  It is in the conference's interests to keep the relationship open with TX/OUsux in order to keep and promote more higher profile non-conference match-ups which the B12 needs more than Texas does.   You see the crap schedule that the SEC gets away with.  TX/OUsux can do the same and I am sure Texas Southern, SWT (Fuck calling it Texas State), North Texas, Rice, and the other UTx schools would be happy to fill the gap, even if we as fans prefer something more challenging.   If every other major conference refused to play games against the SEC in the regulars season, the hype machine of the SEC would keep on rolling.    SEC 'schools' benefit from this immensely and even get mulligans that no one else gets.   

Personally I thought the old B12 of the late 90's through the 2000s was great.  It just seemed that too many of the schools were led by little bitches who couldn't handle another school rising to the top without losing their minds while their own team fell.   Guess what, our team fell and we still didn't lose our minds.  We know our team sucks and our coaches were shitty and some of the players were horrible.   But we still cheered them on.  We didn't try to tear anyone else down, because we knew it was our own damn fault.  Now the fuckery with the officiating, well that was obvious and real.  The stats indicate it, the video evidence is there, and even sometimes the announcers notice it, when they are not playing pattycake with each other.   Heck even other fans from other schools noticed it.   That the crew that fucked over Texas in 2015 still has a job and can still be present to fuck us over in games is proof that the conference is biased.  So fuck this place.  I don't actually blame OSU for the officiating.  I blame the conference for it and the leadership.   We should have left in 2015 after the commissioner claimed most of the calls were right which was an outright fucking lie.  

So yes, we have a right to be pissed off.  Because the fuckery hurts us in recruiting, hurts our bottom line, and hurts our opportunities to compete for championships.  We won the red river shoot out last year, until the officials stepped in and directed the outcome of the game.  

In short fuck the b12 and I hope the conference craters or better yet, I hope the rest of you are stuck in it as it gets relegated and only the oprah channel picks up y'all tv contract for about $350.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, Nivek said:

Let me follow up.  Contracts are broken and renegotiated all the time.  And using the delay tactics to test the durability of the contracts is not actually out of the question.   aggy, NU, Colorado, Mizzou all left the conference with a hell of a lot less of a payment and UT should use that to counter the bill.  The conference is broken and corrupt officiating is not only tolerated it is celebrated.    I also know that the conference has a chance of being relegated with the loss of TX and OUsux.  It is in the conference's interests to keep the relationship open with TX/OUsux in order to keep and promote more higher profile non-conference match-ups which the B12 needs more than Texas does.   You see the crap schedule that the SEC gets away with.  TX/OUsux can do the same and I am sure Texas Southern, SWT (Fuck calling it Texas State), North Texas, Rice, and the other UTx schools would be happy to fill the gap, even if we as fans prefer something more challenging.   If every other major conference refused to play games against the SEC in the regulars season, the hype machine of the SEC would keep on rolling.    SEC 'schools' benefit from this immensely and even get mulligans that no one else gets.   

Personally I thought the old B12 of the late 90's through the 2000s was great.  It just seemed that too many of the schools were led by little bitches who couldn't handle another school rising to the top without losing their minds while their own team fell.   Guess what, our team fell and we still didn't lose our minds.  We know our team sucks and our coaches were shitty and some of the players were horrible.   But we still cheered them on.  We didn't try to tear anyone else down, because we knew it was our own damn fault.  Now the fuckery with the officiating, well that was obvious and real.  The stats indicate it, the video evidence is there, and even sometimes the announcers notice it, when they are not playing pattycake with each other.   Heck even other fans from other schools noticed it.   That the crew that fucked over Texas in 2015 still has a job and can still be present to fuck us over in games is proof that the conference is biased.  So fuck this place.  I don't actually blame OSU for the officiating.  I blame the conference for it and the leadership.   We should have left in 2015 after the commissioner claimed most of the calls were right which was an outright fucking lie.  

So yes, we have a right to be pissed off.  Because the fuckery hurts us in recruiting, hurts our bottom line, and hurts our opportunities to compete for championships.  We won the red river shoot out last year, until the officials stepped in and directed the outcome of the game.  

In short fuck the b12 and I hope the conference craters or better yet, I hope the rest of you are stuck in it as it gets relegated and only the oprah channel picks up y'all tv contract for about $350.  

 

 

Seems like it’s bowlsby just being a bitch

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On 3/2/2022 at 1:56 PM, ButtFumble said:

it is equal to the PRIOR two years of media rights

https://static.big12sports.com/custompages/pdfs/handbook/bylaws.pdf

Buyout Amount. Any Withdrawing Member shall pay to the Conference a commitment
buyout fee (the “Buyout Amount”) in an amount equal to the sum of the amount of
distributions that otherwise would be paid to the Member during the final two years of
its membership in the Conference.

 

here is the part about notification of contact to leave the conference

 

(C) if a third party offers to,
or attempts to induce a Member to, leave the Conference and/or breach or not to fully
perform its future obligations under the Grant of Rights Agreement and the Member
does not both (1) inform the Conference of such action as promptly as possible (but
in any event not later than twelve (12) hours after such action) and (2) immediately
and unconditionally reject that offer in a form and manner reasonably acceptable to
the Commissioner; or (D) if a Member otherwise takes or fails to take actions that are
determined by a Supermajority of Disinterested Directors to be contrary to the best
interests of the Conference taken as a whole

There's a lot of slack to maneuver around in this section.  This isn't the holdup.

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On 3/3/2022 at 10:40 AM, camel at sea said:

In theory they should be able to make ACC/PAC type of money in a new deal.  They're going to have average TV ratings in the ballpark of those two conferences after UT and OU leave.  The AAC was creeping up toward the PAC over the last few years and the newest version of the Big 12 will be quite a bit stronger than the AAC was.

I suspect that once the new deals are worked out that the Big 12 will start showing some more flexibility with the idea of letting UT and OU leave.  Iowa State's leadership might want to turn the screws to the two schools that are leaving but the Texhoma schools probably won't.  They're going to want UT, A&M, and OU on future schedules - and friendly relations in the event an SEC spot ever opens up (not to mention avoiding exit precedents they'd have to live up to themselves if they leave, too.) 

They are not making that type of money.   You are usually an ok poster, but when it comes to this stuff, you live somewhere with unicorns.  Just because some KSU or BU fan's podcast on YouTube projects this, it is not a projection from the networks.  You use the OSU/BU game rating as a marker.  That was  solely based on hype ESPN was using to push the upcoming playoff games.  It doesn't reflect the attention either team draws nationally.   

The Big 12 has a population footprint at least half the size of everyone's else.  That is why the Big 12 relied heavily on National appeal, but no one wanted to schedule better games. Yet, they had no problem letting Texas and eventually OU do all the heavy work. 

But now as a conference that needed all the National attention they could pull, they lost the two horses that pulled it.  And with it, they lost the Texas population as numbers.   The reason they rushed and expanded with the ones they did is because they know it is bad.  They grabbed Houston trying to salvo somewhat of an interest in Texas.  BYU is the closest to a P5 school out there.  UFC, recognizable name in a big state. Same with Cincy.  They are desperately trying to grow the footprint for hopefully a networks soon.  They HAVE to have it because without it, they are DOOMED. This is NOT going to get them there.  Not even close....

If they make half the money the other P5s make that does nothing to compete, but the other leagues have networks that are starting to distribute insane money on top of the media numbers.   It is done for the Big 12.  It is just a matter of time...    

 

 

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42 minutes ago, Gaffords said:

There's a lot of slack to maneuver around in this section.  This isn't the holdup.

well the holdup is not really money in terms of a straight buyout of two years prior distributions because that is owed mo matter when Texas and OU leave

so the holdup is not wanting to try and fight the GOR and not wanting to go to court to try and fight the GOR considering that Texas and OU violated the 12 hour notice and there is evidence that ESPN was complicit in trying to break up the Big 12 (with the AAC) even if there is not known evidence of ESPN and the SEC and Texas and OU working together to break up the Big 12

and if there was remotely evidence of that combined with the 12 hour notification rule and the fact that Texas and OU were a party to negotiations with ESPN and Fox to extend the current contract (and presumably voted to not do that) while also negotiating to leave the conference that is an issue and probably a major issue

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I'm too fucking lazy to scratch and claw at the 'Net to find the information, but it'd be interesting - aand perhaps crucial - to compare the buyouts for all the years of the XII up 'til now. 

If it is in fact true that Nebraska, Colorado, aggy, Missouri all walked away paying half or less than the full  amount required, I'd think most rational, uninterested Jurors would be likely to feel that the demand by Bowlsby and the Boys for all the marbles is not just excessive, but completely unprecedented.

I have no idea what the current state of negotiations is, but I'd think it's at the point where we are offering around half or see y'all in court, sooner or later.

Personally, I lean toward pulling the team off the field at the very first sign of referee fuckery, calling over the XII official attending the game and telling him we're going to forfeit if another egregiously incorrect call happens. You might want to see how the broadcaster, the one who's paying for the game, feels about being faced with hours of no product to show. That's fucking extreme, but then so was the OSU game which saw the refs calling holding on a DL who was trying to escape from two OL who were holding him, awarding a fumble recovery to the OSU QB who never got into the pile, and hip-checking our HC and then penalizing the coach. We should have taken that opportunity to refuse any game with that ref crew. Nothing like that is going to happen, ever, but it's a delicious thought...

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On 3/3/2022 at 9:22 PM, Nivek said:

Pay them nothing and leave. Let them sue and then hit them with delay delay delay. Then bring in the conference officiating bias as evidence they want Texas to leave. Then sue them for being a fraud of a conference.

You left off the part about where 6-7 years down the road, after all the delay and appeals, when inflation has turned that 90 million into 45 million,  and after the BIg12 left overs have been bleed dry by their new shitty media deal for years, after all that, claim “sovereign immunity “ in that Texas court the lawsuit was filed in and start the process all over again.

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All I see is that Texas and OU owe two years of media revenue. Leaving schools are supposed to notify 18 months in advance. That lets the conference receive two years of revenue, and not disburse it to the leaving schools. There is an important legal principle here- “I’m holding the money and I’m keeping it. You have to sue to get it.”

All that business about not reporting ESPN involvement and whatever- that’s great for arguing, but it will amount to nothing. The Big XII isn’t suing ESPN or bringing them into litigation at all. ESPN is their customer. (The TV contract goes thru 2025. The two years without Texas and OU will be paid without complaint by ESPN/ABC so Bowlsby will stfu). 
 
Why don’t Texas and OU just run off to the SEC now, and say, “We gone. Go ahead and keep our shares!”? Because of the political shit storm in Texas and Oklahoma (the Ags did this very thing). 
In short- Texas and OU fees will come from media revenue sent to the Big XII. Texas and OU aren’t writing any checks, unless it’s to get out sooner, which doesn’t look to be happening. 

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5 minutes ago, statsman said:

All I see is that Texas and OU owe two years of media revenue. Leaving schools are supposed to notify 18 months in advance. That lets the conference receive two years of revenue, and not disburse it to the leaving schools. There is an important legal principle here- “I’m holding the money and I’m keeping it. You have to sue to get it.”

All that business about not reporting ESPN involvement and whatever- that’s great for arguing, but it will amount to nothing. The Big XII isn’t suing ESPN or bringing them into litigation at all. ESPN is their customer. 
 
Why don’t Texas and OU just run off to the SEC now, and say, “We gone. Go ahead and keep our shares!”? Because of the political shit storm in Texas and Oklahoma (the Ags did this very thing). 
In short- Texas and OU fees will come from media revenue sent to the Big XII. Texas and OU aren’t writing any checks, unless it’s to get out sooner, which doesn’t look to be happening. 

there is the issue of media rights

Fox owns half of those and they are not going to just give those up to ESPN and the SEC SEC SEC for nothing

and if it was found that ESPN was a part of "enticing" Texas and OU to leave the Big 12 that could be extremely costly to ESPN.....and while some will want to discount the evidence that the Big 12 says they have from ESPN and the AAC discussing breaking up the Big 12 well after that news came out the talk of Texas having $120 million in pledged money to leave the Big 12 ASAP died down and suddenly a "financial issue" with OU popped up and Texas and OU were saying they would finish the contract in the Big 12

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