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Tell me what's happening in Afganistan (no CR. Can't we all just get along?)


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10 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yep, going to hear more of these stories. 

These stories will get a lot of airtime. Not just because this is an epic clusterfuck, but also because we’ve been there 20 years so there’s that many more veterans and reporters and civilian contractors and intelligence agents with skin in the game. You can’t just sweep this all under the rug with people like yourself. 

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12 minutes ago, Muy Frio said:

These stories will get a lot of airtime. Not just because this is an epic clusterfuck, but also because we’ve been there 20 years so there’s that many more veterans and reporters and civilian contractors and intelligence agents with skin in the game. You can’t just sweep this all under the rug with people like yourself. 

losing a war and watching a state we tried to prop up completely collapse is messy. we've made countless mistakes there, everything unfolding right now added to a laundry list of others.

which begs the question...what was the last correct move we made in this corner of the world?

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9 minutes ago, Drew said:

1991 probably.  Keeping Saudi and others from being invaded. But even then there were backroom dealings and special interests.

hell even that decision (to house troops on saudi soil) resulted al qaeda declaring war against us. every move over there fucks us. 

Edited by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt
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That is also true.  I hate to be the "We probably shouldn't get involved over there" guy, but it's really poignant over the last 20 years.  Other than helping Israel, don't know why we are anymore. 

 

Well yes I do...Oil. And Poppy.

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No, we should be there. We should maintain the capacity to fuck up bad guys and listen to China/Russia. It was also a damn good back door should china start some shit. Now we have what? Erbil and Diego Garcia plus our carriers. 

Can we talk strategy on this thread vs. political doings? 

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6 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

No, we should be there. We should maintain the capacity to fuck up bad guys and listen to China/Russia. It was also a damn good back door should china start some shit. Now we have what? Erbil and Diego Garcia plus our carriers. 

Can we talk strategy on this thread vs. political doings? 

Probably not, because strategy talk will inevitably lead to second-guessing strategy talk, which becomes inherently political.

This thread is probably best served by updates and current events.  Your insights are much appreciated, thank you!

 

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2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Probably not, because strategy talk will inevitably lead to second-guessing strategy talk, which becomes inherently political.

This thread is probably best served by updates and current events.  Your insights are much appreciated, thank you!

This is correct. Please feel free to start a thread on that topic here. I will police it to keep it more DT than CR. 

Thanks for your insight on this thread. I have really enjoyed reading your posts and learning about this. 

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26 minutes ago, blacklab said:

I would prefer to keep it more on the news and facts of what we did rather than opinions on what we should or should not be doing

You got it. And nah, I am not scared to venture over there..... Hell, I can blame all the damn presidents for this one and show my work. 

And when I meant strategy for this thread it was how it ties into some larger GEOPOL issues. I wish we could have that thread in the DT. For instance. Kosovo. There are reasons we are still there. 

Edited by InkaUtexas
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3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

You got it. And nah, I am not scared to venture over there..... Hell, I can blame all the damn presidents for this one and show my work. 

And when I meant strategy for this thread it was how it ties into some larger GEOPOL issues. I wish we could have that thread in the DT. For instance. Kosovo. There are reasons we are still there. 

I'd love to hear your thoughts -- I find this stuff fascinating, but I only dabble in it at a recreational level (been interested in geopolitics since I was a kid, now have a son who wants to make it his college major somehow).  It's chess, layered with moral and ethical dilemmas.  That's just some interesting brain teasing.  So, make a thread, and I'll read it.

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

I'd love to hear your thoughts -- I find this stuff fascinating, but I only dabble in it at a recreational level (been interested in geopolitics since I was a kid, now have a son who wants to make it his college major somehow).  It's chess, layered with moral and ethical dilemmas.  That's just some interesting brain teasing.  So, make a thread, and I'll read it.

hahaha, only thread I have made on the Surl ended being packed off to the CR! 

 My son graduates with BA's in International Relations and International Business. He has a ton of job offers from traditional companies waking up to the realization that knowing the globe matters if you want to work/compete there. My GF (Child psych) is starting to realize the good she could do working with war orphans in Kenya (Sudanese/Somali's/ and now Ethiopians. There are two threads I would love to see. 

1- Its a crazy, crazy world. We are for the most part Longhorns and we are everywhere. Those who are not were smart enough to find this site. This thread would be about small events which would be good to know about. Like the insurgency in Mozambique. 

2- A non-political thread about US Strategy to maintain a semblance of our place in the world. 

But alas, I know it would go CR and that is why we cannot have nice things. Well we can have beer. And Bourbon. Right? 

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1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

hahaha, only thread I have made on the Surl ended being packed off to the CR! 

 My son graduates with BA's in International Relations and International Business. He has a ton of job offers from traditional companies waking up to the realization that knowing the globe matters if you want to work/compete there. My GF (Child psych) is starting to realize the good she could do working with war orphans in Kenya (Sudanese/Somali's/ and now Ethiopians. There are two threads I would love to see. 

1- Its a crazy, crazy world. We are for the most part Longhorns and we are everywhere. Those who are not were smart enough to find this site. This thread would be about small events which would be good to know about. Like the insurgency in Mozambique. 

2- A non-political thread about US Strategy to maintain a semblance of our place in the world. 

But alas, I know it would go CR and that is why we cannot have nice things. Well we can have beer. And Bourbon. Right? 

Irish Whiskey or Scotch, please.

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2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

 My son graduates with BA's in International Relations and International Business. He has a ton of job offers from traditional companies waking up to the realization that knowing the globe matters if you want to work/compete there. My GF (Child psych) is starting to realize the good she could do working with war orphans in Kenya (Sudanese/Somali's/ and now Ethiopians. There are two threads I would love to see. 

I'm kind of surprised. I worked in Hungary and Eastern Czechoslovakia (near modern day Slovakia) immediately following the fall of the Soviet Union. It seemed to me, International Business is where they would either fill those positions with non-Americans or as favors to employees who were promotable (which may or not be a word) and wanted to live overseas.

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3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I'm kind of surprised. I worked in Hungary and Eastern Czechoslovakia (near modern day Slovakia) immediately following the fall of the Soviet Union. It seemed to me, International Business is where they would either fill those positions with non-Americans or as favors to employees who were promotable (which may or not be a word) and wanted to live overseas.

Gotta train em. When I worked for a large entity I used to laugh. In came a young intern talking about how bad ass they were at Georgetown. Boss would look at me and smile. He ran the over all team, I was the planning person. Yeah, we would make em cry and those who could take it train the hell out of them. My first time into Kabul (2002) was with our deputy director. Former Special Forces Colonel. Damn he made me earn my keep. I shut up, listened and built a career. 

In Eastern Europe you can find solid people, good English, etc. Now go do that in Tigray, Pemba, Haiti, etc. A bit harder. Bosnia was one of the easiest places I have lived and worked. Plus I loved their food and brandy. 

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3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

And there is something else about this one. No politics, but I am tired of hearing about how fucked up the Afghans were across the board. My engineers could build anything, yet USAID brought in Bolivians (not joking) to build roads in Helmand. Well they were built Bolivian style and instead of just dirt they were covered in river gravel. Made this a lot harder to spot IED's AND caused more shrapnel. 

There are some damn good people there. The medical staff at Bost Hospital had no support, yet never stopped trying. The members of my monitoring teams would go into Taliban areas to gather information so we could determine what would work and what was needed, and not what DOD/DOS or the White House thought was needed from DC. The construction personnel building training centers in the mountains, in December, never stopped working. We utilized as much of the local talent as we could. And in a large part, Kabul based Journalists who spent a lot of time going to bars at night, flying to Dubai on weekends, the image of the Afghans, and contractors, was sullied since that is where the stories were. Not all of them sucked. Not all of them were pussies, heroin addicts, thieves, rapists. But that is how we want to portray them since it lets us look down on them. Sure there were major problems. But I have seen them in over 10 missions overseas ranging from straight development to complex peacekeeping to full out war. Afghanistan is just one of the places. 

I thought about posting a picture of my 32nd birthday in Lash but decided nah, some of those people might still be alive. A typical Afghan evening, sitting out in the grass with the monitor teams, agriculture specialists (Most Indian trained, led by our Afghan lead with his PHD from University of Nebraska) and our security personnel and the two brits working with me. Half of them did not know what a birthday was, the other half could speak 4-5 languages. 

It was perhaps my best birthday ever. I do want to thank the board for letting me vent on this. Like @MillerEP this has been rough. Getting the WhatsApp calls starting about 11PM to then watching the news during the day. Overload. I need a beer.......   

Out of curiosity, where are you hearing so much about afghanis sucking and being all fucked up?

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Just now, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Out of curiosity, where are you hearing so much about afghanis sucking and being all fucked up?

All over the media, classic, social, talking heads, this thread, the CR, etc. Won't get political, but there is more to the ANA's collapse than is being reported. How well does your vehicle work with no fuel? Got Ammo while guarding a forward base. Can you maintain that Blackhawk when your mechanics are not trained fully and your supply chain is halted for spares? 

Afghanistan is a logistics challenge. The Brits were tested in Helmand from 2005-2008. The Brits had to fix bayonets in a few places. They could not get ammo in. It is why fighting light militia vs. militia might have worked better. 

Helicopters have a hard time in that country. We had the capacity to do air drops into our forward locations when we wanted to. The ANA did not. The tribal leaders did negotiate in advance, but with both groups. it is the nature of the country. 

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2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

All over the media, classic, social, talking heads, this thread, the CR, etc. Won't get political, but there is more to the ANA's collapse than is being reported. How well does your vehicle work with no fuel? Got Ammo while guarding a forward base. Can you maintain that Blackhawk when your mechanics are not trained fully and your supply chain is halted for spares? 

Afghanistan is a logistics challenge. The Brits were tested in Helmand from 2005-2008. The Brits had to fix bayonets in a few places. They could not get ammo in. It is why fighting light militia vs. militia might have worked better. 

Helicopters have a hard time in that country. We had the capacity to do air drops into our forward locations when we wanted to. The ANA did not. The tribal leaders did negotiate in advance, but with both groups. it is the nature of the country. 

This sounds like a obviously stupid "no shit" response, especially to someone with your experience ... but that was the one thing that never really landed with me (and probably 99.9% of the laity) until I read more details about specific battles and wars ... how wars largely are won as much or more by logistics as the front lines. Even in college classes it was just sort of assumed that all those soldiers had magically, unlimited supplies of food, ammunition, fuel, clothing, medical supplies, etc.

Concur that the spin seems to be the plan was perfect, but the Afghan army quit and foiled its perfection.

Edited by Harrison Bergeron
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Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

Political spin. Not for this thread. 

I think he was referring to comments like “maybe the afghanis will finally stand up and fight for their country” and other derivatives…have seen some of that here, but admittedly don’t read/watch much of any news so wasn’t sure if they are also laying the blame at the feet of the afghanis.

if so, yeah, pretty fucking lazy.

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Here’s a pretty good article from Axios that sorta covers why we are hewing to the 8/31 deadline:  there’s no real way to leave without the Taliban letting us leave.  It’s the same problem that closed Ton Son Nhut: inability to guarantee the safety of the air strip. If we don’t leave and they start shelling/mortaring the field, which Marines are going to be the last to die? 

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18 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Breakdown?

Who is being evacuated? By whom? How many Americans? How many Americans left?

No estimate on Americans left. I suspect that will be leaked later. No way there will be official statement, “There are an estimated 5,000 Americans still in Afghanistan. They’re in our thoughts.”

Edited by Muy Frio
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19 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

if anyone is interested, went back and found the thread devoted to the last time we tucked tail and abandoned our allies (that one done truly without any consult with our military leaders or allies).

virtually no outrage on that one (outside of @Brisketexan who once again remains frighteningly consistent). strange.

I was saying Boo-urns.

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Lots of concern now about an ISIS attack over the next 5 days at the airport (CNN):

-----------------

"Concerns about security around Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul have increased based on “a very specific threat stream” from ISIS-K about planned attacks against crowds outside the airport, a US defense official has told CNN.

The US believes ISIS-K, which is a sworn enemy of the Taliban, wants to create mayhem at the airport and has intelligence streams suggesting it is capable and planning to carry out multiple attacks, according to the official."

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1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

Here’s a pretty good article from Axios that sorta covers why we are hewing to the 8/31 deadline:  there’s no real way to leave without the Taliban letting us leave.  It’s the same problem that closed Ton Son Nhut: inability to guarantee the safety of the air strip. If we don’t leave and they start shelling/mortaring the field, which Marines are going to be the last to die? 

This....THIS is the unspoken next page in the narrative that "we should stay and get everyone out."  Without discussing or arguing about what the terms of any agreement between the US and Taliban are, the alternative to an agreement is "no agreement."  And "no agreement" almost certainly means fighting.  So, the question is not "will the US stay past 8/31 or not?"  The question is "is the US prepared to re-engage, send in more troops, and engage in significant combat operations in Afghanistan again?"

If that's the will, so be it.  The other side of the calculus is that we have decided to pull out of Afghanistan, and even if this particular version of how we are leaving could and should have been done better, the die is cast -- we are leaving, and we do not intend to sacrifice any additional American soldiers there.

I think that most everyone will concede that there are no great options on the table.  And the intellectually honest will concede that once we decided to go all-in in Afghanistan, there were never going to be any great options for how our engagement would end.  C'est la guerre.

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4 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Lots of concern now about an ISIS attack over the next 5 days at the airport (CNN):

-----------------

"Concerns about security around Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul have increased based on “a very specific threat stream” from ISIS-K about planned attacks against crowds outside the airport, a US defense official has told CNN.

The US believes ISIS-K, which is a sworn enemy of the Taliban, wants to create mayhem at the airport and has intelligence streams suggesting it is capable and planning to carry out multiple attacks, according to the official."

Highlighting the bolded to emphasize the immediate conundrum -- if we want to avoid ISIS engaging in deadly shenanigans regarding our evac process, the reality on the ground is that we need to work WITH the local security.  And right now, the local security outside the airport is....the Taliban.  It doesn't mean we need to be best buddies, but they have the boots on the ground all around the airport, not us -- and if we tried to replace them and expand the perimeter, we'd likely end up fighting them, which would mean a nice three-way combat situation.  Nasty, chaotic circumstances make for strange bedfellows.

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7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This....THIS is the unspoken next page in the narrative that "we should stay and get everyone out."  Without discussing or arguing about what the terms of any agreement between the US and Taliban are, the alternative to an agreement is "no agreement."  And "no agreement" almost certainly means fighting.  So, the question is not "will the US stay past 8/31 or not?"  The question is "is the US prepared to re-engage, send in more troops, and engage in significant combat operations in Afghanistan again?"

If that's the will, so be it.  The other side of the calculus is that we have decided to pull out of Afghanistan, and even if this particular version of how we are leaving could and should have been done better, the die is cast -- we are leaving, and we do not intend to sacrifice any additional American soldiers there.

I think that most everyone will concede that there are no great options on the table.  And the intellectually honest will concede that once we decided to go all-in in Afghanistan, there were never going to be any great options for how our engagement would end.  C'est la guerre.

I guess it’s a numbers game. If there’s 3,000 Americans still in Kabul, is it worth the increased engagement? I mean 3,000 dead Americans is why we’re there in the first place. 
 

Basically any financial, political, or human costs of extricating these people would be consequences of the initial botched withdrawal attempt. 

Edited by Muy Frio
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4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This....THIS is the unspoken next page in the narrative that "we should stay and get everyone out."  Without discussing or arguing about what the terms of any agreement between the US and Taliban are, the alternative to an agreement is "no agreement."  And "no agreement" almost certainly means fighting.  So, the question is not "will the US stay past 8/31 or not?"  The question is "is the US prepared to re-engage, send in more troops, and engage in significant combat operations in Afghanistan again?"

If that's the will, so be it.  The other side of the calculus is that we have decided to pull out of Afghanistan, and even if this particular version of how we are leaving could and should have been done better, the die is cast -- we are leaving, and we do not intend to sacrifice any additional American soldiers there.

I think that most everyone will concede that there are no great options on the table.  And the intellectually honest will concede that once we decided to go all-in in Afghanistan, there were never going to be any great options for how our engagement would end.  C'est la guerre.

Or damned if we do damned if we don't...........

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1 minute ago, Muy Frio said:

I guess it’s a numbers game. If there’s 3,000 Americans still in Kabul, is it worth the increased engagement? I mean 3,000 dead Americans is why we’re there in the first place. 

how many are there of their own volition? (read: because they took a job that pays them considerably more than they would make elsewhere)

i had family/friends that did contract work in warzones. the calculus they always made was 'does the money warrant the risk?'

is it acceptable to ask why they remain there given the risks and whether they bear any responsibility for making that choice?

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2 minutes ago, Muy Frio said:

I guess it’s a numbers game. If there’s 3,000 Americans still in Kabul, is it worth the increased engagement? I mean 3,000 dead Americans is why we’re there in the first place. 

 

2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Or damned if we do damned if we don't...........

Correct on both counts.  It's all just a calculus now.

I wouldn't be surprised to see shots fired as we get to the "last plane out" phase of things, because shit descends into chaos -- that's what shit does.  But the planes will still leave, and they won't be coming back.

Note that it doesn't mean that we wouldn't still be working to get people out via third countries and such -- e.g., if folks can get to Turkmenistan, we might work with that government to let them in so we could evacuate them from there.  I have no idea what all is happening behind the scenes/on other fronts, but that would make sense.  And if we want Turkmenistan's cooperation.....all it takes is money.

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1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Breakdown?

Who is being evacuated? By whom? How many Americans? How many Americans left?

americans, europeans, afghan allies.

by everyone.  u.s. has evacuated the lion's share of the total numbers.  uk is next with 10,000 evacuations.

unclear how many "americans" are left.

the current tally is approximately 82,300 evacuated since august 14th.  probably going to grow quite a bit today.

total of 21 casualties so far...

  • 11 afghan civilians killed in stampedes around the airport.
  • 6 afghan civilians killed attempting what could best be described as "stowaways."
  • 2 unknown gunmen killed by u.s. troops.
  • 1 afghan guard killed in a firefight involving u.s. and german troops.
Edited by sidis
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This is nice:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/woman-taliban-sex-slaves-dead-bodies

Excerpt:
woman who fled the Taliban in Afghanistan reportedly said militants are searching for sex slaves and having sex with corpses.

The woman was a police officer in Afghanistan before fleeing to India following the group's insurgence into Kabul, she said.

“They rape dead bodies too," the woman told News 18, according to a report from India’s North-Eastern Chronicle. "They don’t care whether the person is dead or alive. … Can you imagine this?”
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16 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

how many are there of their own volition? (read: because they took a job that pays them considerably more than they would make elsewhere)

 

We don’t know. Like I said, I doubt they will tell us directly. 
 

17 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

is it acceptable to ask why they remain there given the risks and whether they bear any responsibility for making that choice?

Were they still there because they were reassured by our Govt that the risk of complete collapse was minimal to zero? That’s what some prominent people said pretty explicitly. 
 

Now that the conditions have changed some will be remaining because we are leaving them. 

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9 minutes ago, Muy Frio said:

We don’t know. Like I said, I doubt they will tell us directly. 
 

Were they still there because they were reassured by our Govt that the risk of complete collapse was minimal to zero? That’s what some prominent people said pretty explicitly. 
 

Now that the conditions have changed some will be remaining because we are leaving them. 

so...none? maybe a little? some, but not a lot? a lot?

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