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2022 Houston Astros Thread


Planet Houston

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37 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

It would really hurt to lose JV.  I literally love him.  But if Brown is the real deal, then doesn't he become expendable at the high price?

I’m sure Wulaw will give you a white paper research report but my initial reaction is “it depends” First off, Brown is not a JV replacement, regardless of how well he pitches ROS.  Secondly,  what does Click/Crane want to do with that $40M/yr. It looks like they’d be in decent shape for tax threshold either way. It would bear consideration if it was used to extend Tucker and at least 2 of the 4 musketeers (Framber, Javier, Urquidy, Garcia). And get a centerfielder. 

Edited by TonyTexas
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There is absolutely nobody I would waste significant free agent money on to play CF next season or the season after. They are all pretty shitty. Someone inside the organization is gonna need to get it together unless they can package Garcia or Urquidy with something to pull a CF who is not a FA.

Keeping JV is more important in my eyes.

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49 minutes ago, Scraps said:

There is absolutely nobody I would waste significant free agent money on to play CF next season or the season after. They are all pretty shitty. Someone inside the organization is gonna need to get it together unless they can package Garcia or Urquidy with something to pull a CF who is not a FA.

Keeping JV is more important in my eyes.
 

 

Pretty shitty:

2023 FA OF.jpg

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1 hour ago, Ojo Rojo said:

An embarrassment of riches at SP. 

It would really hurt to lose JV.  I literally love him.  But if Brown is the real deal, then doesn't he become expendable at the high price?

What do you do with six quality starters?  One guy works from the pen? Six man rotation? Trade one of them? Good problem to have.

I think the Astros will move more towards a 6-man rotation next year. I think that will be the next pitching innovation that all teams start trying, like the opener was 3 years ago.

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On 9/1/2022 at 12:41 PM, henrygandorf said:

also you should be aware that any deviation from the normal 71-74 degree days and 62-65 degree nights send southern californians into a sudden and alarmed sense of confusion.

when it's this hot, or god forbid it rains, we collapse into thunderdome-style post-apocalyptic mayhem.  prepare to hear all about it from your uber driver or waiter, to random people on the street.  last time it rained, people basically sheltered in place.  drama queens, all of us.

the local news last night was like, "four people murdered near hancock park, but first, it's realy hot outside, right?"

I noticed this over the weekend, people falling out left and right, telling people to watch out for the heat wave, etc..  I told people I met it felt like a lovely spring in Houston or Austin with less humidity.  They thought I was joking.  It wasn't that bad but it was hot.

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csb/ We were running a construction project some years ago in eastern Ohio near the river.  One day it was 93 deg., and a truck driver passed out due to the heat (no AC in the cab).  In our discussion with the construction company, we made the comment along the way that 93 didn't seem that hot, and the guy actually said "Yeah, but you don't have the humidity in Houston that we have".  We almost fell out of our chairs.

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It's been proven with Correa and Springer that our front office will let beloved players go who are the highest priced and older. I don't think they are going to keep Verlander.  Our remaining starters would still be one of the best in the league. I think they are going to be looking to pledge that money to extend guys and maybe find a LF, CF, C and/or 1B.

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1 minute ago, Ojo Rojo said:

It's been proven with Correa and Springer that our front office will let beloved players go who are the highest priced and older. I don't think they are going to keep Verlander.  Our remaining starters would still be one of the best in the league. I think they are going to be looking to pledge that money to extend guys and maybe find a LF, CF, C and/or 1B.

The fear is that the JV money wouldn't be used for a star, but a couple of Jags to fill out the roster.  If you are passing on JV, the upgrade at LF, CF, C or 1 B should be substantial for a game one WS starter.  None of our other pitchers are that guy.

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2 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

It's been proven with Correa and Springer that our front office will let beloved players go who are the highest priced and older. I don't think they are going to keep Verlander.  Our remaining starters would still be one of the best in the league. I think they are going to be looking to pledge that money to extend guys and maybe find a LF, CF, C and/or 1B.

That’s not really accurate. What they won’t do is sign higher priced older guys for longterm deals. There’s no reason to believe they wouldn’t be willing to bring Verlander back for 2-3 seasons at a higher AAV. I mean, they just gave him $25 million (with an option year at the same price) when he hadn’t really pitched since 2019.

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1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

I’m sure Wulaw will give you a white paper research report but my initial reaction is “it depends” First off, Brown is not a JV replacement, regardless of how well he pitches ROS.  Secondly,  what does Click/Crane want to do with that $40M/yr. It looks like they’d be in decent shape for tax threshold either way. It would bear consideration if it was used to extend Tucker and at least 2 of the 4 musketeers (Framber, Javier, Urquidy, Garcia). And get a centerfielder. 

FWIW, Valdez won’t hit free agency until 2026. He’ll be 32 and groundball pitchers (and he’s the most extreme one there is) don’t tend to age well at all. I doubt he’s an extension candidate.

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1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

I’m sure Wulaw will give you a white paper research report but my initial reaction is “it depends” First off, Brown is not a JV replacement, regardless of how well he pitches ROS.  Secondly,  what does Click/Crane want to do with that $40M/yr. It looks like they’d be in decent shape for tax threshold either way. It would bear consideration if it was used to extend Tucker and at least 2 of the 4 musketeers (Framber, Javier, Urquidy, Garcia). And get a centerfielder. 

Look- this isn't a terrible plan, and it might even be a good plan and might work out for the best.  My initial thought would be these offers for extension if you have that money to throw around

Tucker- 6/135 (3 arb left)

Framber 5/72 (arb 2, 3 & 4 left)

Javier- 5/50 (3 arb left)

Urquidy 5/42 (3 arb left)

Garcia- 6/50 (1 year of minimum wage and 3 arb left)

If you could knock down 4 of those signings and pair that with a Mancini or Vasquez coming back then that's not a terrible use of that money), but

1 hour ago, Scraps said:

There is absolutely nobody I would waste significant free agent money on to play CF next season or the season after. They are all pretty shitty. Someone inside the organization is gonna need to get it together unless they can package Garcia or Urquidy with something to pull a CF who is not a FA.

Keeping JV is more important in my eyes.
 

Yeah- I'd just as soon spend it on JV. Unless you want to give that $40 to Judge, who probably won't take it unless you guarantee that number to him 7 more times beyond next years $40M

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Just now, formermav43 said:

FWIW, Valdez won’t hit free agency until 2026. He’ll be 32 and groundball pitchers (and he’s the most extreme one there is) don’t tend to age well at all. I doubt he’s an extension candidate.

I said 5/72 b/c you at least are buying out his arb 2, 3 & 4 which could cost upwards of $50M.  I wouldn't mind a nice little $14.5 AAV for him.  That gives him some more guarantee.  But yeah- with 3 more Arb's left and getting toward being old he's not going to command some sort of mega deal or anything. 

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3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I said 5/72 b/c you at least are buying out his arb 2, 3 & 4 which could cost upwards of $50M.  I wouldn't mind a nice little $14.5 AAV for him.  That gives him some more guarantee.  But yeah- with 3 more Arb's left and getting toward being old he's not going to command some sort of mega deal or anything. 

That’s not a bad deal based on the way he’s pitching today, but I’m not sure 33-34 year old Valdez is even going to be replacement level (see Keuchel, Dallas).

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17 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

The fear is that the JV money wouldn't be used for a star, but a couple of Jags to fill out the roster.  If you are passing on JV, the upgrade at LF, CF, C or 1 B should be substantial for a game one WS starter.  None of our other pitchers are that guy.

I realize we’re all just playing amateur GM but I thought it was common knowledge that Verlander is held outside of the budget, i.e., owner’s prerogative.  I’m sure his salary slot has implications on the tax threshold but otherwise it shouldn’t be presumed it’s Verlander or plan B.  

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13 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I realize we’re all just playing amateur GM

I actually would consider you more of a semi-pro GM if only you could rein in your emotions slightly. The time you spend thinking (and writing) about roster construction certainly elevate you above the rest of the peanut gallery. 

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7 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I actually would consider you more of a semi-pro GM if only you could rein in your emotions slightly. The time you spend thinking (and writing) about roster construction certainly elevate you above the rest of the peanut gallery. 

LC Horn lets his emotions get the best of him when writing about roster construction?  Wha?  Did I miss something?

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49 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

For some reason, I thought that was your post but my post was about you. 

I really really like thinking about this kind of stuff. In a previous time I turned down a job as a GM with a prospects league team. If I would have thought it had any chance of parlaying into organized ball I’d have done it. I can’t imagine a more fun job than baseball GM at the MLB level. It’s the single most important position in the organization by a shit ton, and that’s counting guys on the field imo. 

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1 hour ago, formermav43 said:

That’s not really accurate. What they won’t do is sign higher priced older guys for longterm deals. There’s no reason to believe they wouldn’t be willing to bring Verlander back for 2-3 seasons at a higher AAV. I mean, they just gave him $25 million (with an option year at the same price) when he hadn’t really pitched since 2019.

Is there a difference between only being willing to sign high priced old guys to short term deals and not signing older high priced guys? Have the Astros signed an older guy to a high AAV short term contract in recent history? (Verlander doesn't count because this was a "prove it" year coming of TJ.)

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8 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

Is there a difference between only being willing to sign high priced old guys to short term deals and not signing older high priced guys? Have the Astros signed an older guy to a high AAV short term contract in recent history? (Verlander doesn't count because this was a "prove it" year coming of TJ.)

How does Verlander not count? His salary still makes him one of the 10 highest paid pitchers in MLB, and that’s giving it to a guy who theoretically could have been worthless.

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11 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

Have the Astros signed an older guy to a high AAV short term contract in recent history? (Verlander doesn't count because this was a "prove it" year coming of TJ.)

How about JV’s 2yr/$66M contract he signed for the  2020/21 seasons? Does that not count either?

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16 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

How does Verlander not count? His salary still makes him one of the 10 highest paid pitchers in MLB, and that’s giving it to a guy who theoretically could have been worthless.

 

15 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

How about JV’s 2yr/$66M contract he signed for the  2020/21 seasons? Does that not count either?

 

7 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

It’s not quite the same level, but Brantley at 2/$32M is relevant too-that was top 15ish for OF in AAV.

Okay, so maybe one and a half. I don't know why JV took that deal - if I recall, didn't COVID have something to do with suppressing the market that year?  I could be wrong about that. My point is that everyone wants to sign old, high-priced free agents to short term deals.  Some teams are willing to buy the back end of those contracts when the players could be washed up. The Astros are not one of those.

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5 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

 

 

Okay, so maybe one and a half. I don't know why JV took that deal - if I recall, didn't COVID have something to do with suppressing the market that year?  I could be wrong about that. My point is that everyone wants to sign old, high-priced free agents to short term deals.  Some teams are willing to buy the back end of those contracts when the players could be washed up. The Astros are not one of those.

But even if that’s true, there’s no real back end of a contract on a guy who’s 40 next season. No one is giving him more than 2, *maybe* 3 years regardless. They’re absolutely willing to do that.

Edit: Verlander signed his previous extension prior to the 2019 season. Had nothing to do with COVID.

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53 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

But even if that’s true, there’s no real back end of a contract on a guy who’s 40 next season. No one is giving him more than 2, *maybe* 3 years regardless. They’re absolutely willing to do that.

Edit: Verlander signed his previous extension prior to the 2019 season. Had nothing to do with COVID.

I could absolutely see someone giving Verlander 4 years with the 4th year as a vesting option. If his contract was insurable I’d definitely do 4/150 or something like that with the 4th year as a $30M vesting option with a player buyout as well. 
the Astros are in really good shape starting pitching wise so I’m not sure I’d do that if I were them, but if I was a team like the Mets I think I would prefer that to a 6/240 or something like that for DeGrom. 

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2 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

Apparently he and Kate were hanging out at Bailey McCarhthy’s (aka Goodman, heiress of the Goodman HVAC fortune) ranch last weekend while he was on the IL. Any billionaires around here who can get the scuttlebutt on what the plan is? 


 

ohh round top it looks like. That’s good, close to hou 

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3 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

The fear is that the JV money wouldn't be used for a star, but a couple of Jags to fill out the roster.  If you are passing on JV, the upgrade at LF, CF, C or 1 B should be substantial for a game one WS starter.  None of our other pitchers are that guy.

You seem to think that we need a superstar to replace 1B, C, LF, CF. We don't.

We have superstars in Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker, and Bregman. What we need are guys that are at least league average.

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3 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

Apparently he and Kate were hanging out at Bailey McCarhthy’s (aka Goodman, heiress of the Goodman HVAC fortune) ranch last weekend while he was on the IL. Any billionaires around here who can get the scuttlebutt on what the plan is? 

Sidebar. I don't believe she's an heiress to the Goodman estate. She and her sibling are the beneficiaries of a significant trust that had been set up for them. That same trust prompted her dad, John Goodman, to try and adopt his then 42-year old girlfriend to keep at least a share of the trust. I went to school with her mom, Carroll (Reckling) Goodman. She was able to block John's end run to cut his girlfriend in on the family money and preserve it for Bailey, et al.

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11 minutes ago, Saint Tacky said:

Sidebar. I don't believe she's an heiress to the Goodman estate. She and her sibling are the beneficiaries of a significant trust that had been set up for them. That same trust prompted her dad, John Goodman, to try and adopt his then 42-year old girlfriend to keep at least a share of the trust. I went to school with her mom, Carroll (Reckling) Goodman. She was able to block John's end run to cut his girlfriend in on the family money and preserve it for Bailey, et al.

 

now I remember her father....The multimillionaire, who is serving a 16-year state prison sentence <<< it takes a special kind of stupid to fuck up being a rich, polo playboy. good job dumb ass

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/palm-beach/fl-ne-john-goodman-dui-manslaughter-case-reopened-20200918-t42jyaksdbclxgvnpnryslgibu-story.html

 

adopting his gf, very kinky ...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2098801/Teenage-children-John-Goodman-fighting-adoption-girlfriend-42-protect-fortune.html

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13 minutes ago, Saint Tacky said:

Sidebar. I don't believe she's an heiress to the Goodman estate. She and her sibling are the beneficiaries of a significant trust that had been set up for them. That same trust prompted her dad, John Goodman, to try and adopt his then 42-year old girlfriend to keep at least a share of the trust. I went to school with her mom, Carroll (Reckling) Goodman. She was able to block John's end run to cut his girlfriend in on the family money and preserve it for Bailey, et al.

Bailey is Meg Goodman’s daughter. John’s kids are Harriet and John Jr. 

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