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Realignment talk not going away


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2 minutes ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

Freeloaders? Wtf? Texas and OU cant play themselves every week. Texas and OU certainly joined the Big 12 willingly. Nobody made them sign contracts or the GOR. In fact, Texas is the school that insisted this be done after Aggy torched their asses to join the Klan.  

Torched our asses?  Nothing has changed.  We're still Texas.  In fact, we apparently reached out to the B1G first.  You don't think we could've gone to the SEC or anywhere we wanted to?  Deloss just wanted the network.  Whether that was the right decision depends on interpretation.  but yea, we don't need Tech, Baylor, TCU, etc.  Never did.  You were just the most convenient partner at the time.  You're welcome for the last ten years.

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1 hour ago, Rickylovesweed said:

I don't understand your argument. 

Are you arguing the Big 12 schools won't leave for the AAC because of the buyout money from Texas and OU? It's $160 million but only about 20 to each school. That's nothing and it's under the assumption those Big 12 schools even get the full buyout. 

If we collectively have no other options, then yes, we'll stay together because we can keep our annual payout above the AAC contract and also get the buyout money. If some of us can land in a P4, then screw the buyout, we'll protect our long term interests. My argument is that no rational actor would forego the buyout money to join the AAC. That is an absolute last resort, and they would accept any one of us at any time, now or in 2025, if we are forced into that decision. Keep in mind this is in response to the article that ESPN is colluding with the AAC to get the "leftovers" into that league to avoid having to help OU and Texas pay buyouts. If they were conspiring with another P4, that would make sense. Conspiring with the AAC is laughable.

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27 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

By inhibiting their ability to find landing spots?  Right now, a few of the freeloaders may have landing spots, but Bowlsby doesn't give a shit about that.  This is his league to save.  There's a conflict of interest obviously.  

Yes, this is the current complication right now.

Bowlsby has only one job-- to manage the conference as a collective.  He wants to maximize the exit penalty payments from TX and OU, he wants to hold the remainder of the conference together so it has a chance to retain its P5 status, and he (probably, if he' smart) wants to recruit new members to the conference, to replace those that have left.  He does NOT want the remaining member institutions to find "soft landings" anywhere else, because such a result is counter to his responsibilities as B12 Commissioner.  So he is actively working to sabotage any such potential moves.  But I don't really consider that a conflict of interest, because his responsibility is to the collective, not to any individual member institutions.  If the member institutions no longer believe he is acting in their best interests, then they have the power to fire him and replace him with someone they feel WILL do so.

The Irate8 on the other hand, have two objectives.  The first, is to find a soft landing spot in a P5(P4?) conference.  Getting into the B1G especially, but also potentially the ACC or PAC, would offer more stability than any other option.  But if they can't find a soft landing spot, then the secondary objective is to keep the B12 together because it still has the name, the branding, the bowl tie-ins, and the P5 status.  These objectives are conflicting, and so that's why we see them trying to work back-channel deals with power conferences in secret, while allowing Bowlsby to work publicly on behalf of the collective that is the B12.

 

 

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Just now, closetohumping said:

Torched our asses?  Nothing has changed.  We're still Texas.  In fact, we apparently reached out to the B1G first.  You don't think we could've gone to the SEC or anywhere we wanted to?  Deloss just wanted the network.  Whether that was the right decision is up to interpretation.  

But Texas stayed and signed over their Tier 1 rights. So did OU. Willingly. 
 

They got more than the rest and stayed. 
 

and no, after today, you are not “Were Texas” anymore. You are in the Klan. The Klan takes their orders from the GRAND Mouse of Orlando. You will do as you are told. 

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1 minute ago, 'stache said:

If we collectively have no other options, then yes, we'll stay together because we can keep our annual payout above the AAC contract and also get the buyout money. If some of us can land in a P4, then screw the buyout, we'll protect our long term interests. My argument is that no rational actor would forego the buyout money to join the AAC. That is an absolute last resort. Keep in mind this is in response to the article that ESPN is colluding with the AAC to get the "leftovers" into that league to avoid having to help OU and Texas pay buyouts. If they were conspiring with another P4, that would make sense. Conspiring with the AAC is laughable.

Yes, it makes zero sense for all 8 to go to the AAC.  I can certainly understand why that's in ESPN's best interest, but not for the 8 remaining B12 teams.

However, if a couple of teams do manage to get other P4 offers, then the B12 unravels, the exit penalty money goes away, and the remaining teams might then see some benefit from entertaining the AAC as a possibility.

 

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1 minute ago, 'stache said:

If we collectively have no other options, then yes, we'll stay together because we can keep our annual payout above the AAC contract and also get the buyout money. 

This is a lot of guessing. 

If the Big 12 TV contract is restructured to be $9 million after Texas and OU leave then why wouldn't the AAC annual payout not be more if there were other additions to the conference? It would almost certainly be above $9 million. 

The buyout money is also a guess. At most $20 million but probably a lot less than that. You're overvaluing how much more lucrative the Big 12 will be than the AAC. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

Freeloaders? Wtf?

I guess you're finding out your school's suboptimal market value right now, without Texas to boost it, and you're a little cranky. Understandable since it's well below the rest of the P5. Feel free to fuck right off.

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1 minute ago, utee94 said:

Yes, it makes zero sense for all 8 to go to the AAC.  I can certainly understand why that's in ESPN's best interest, but not for the 8 remaining B12 teams.

However, if a couple of teams do manage to get other P4 offers, then the B12 unravels, the exit penalty money goes away, and the remaining teams might then see some benefit from entertaining the AAC as a possibility.

 

That's my point, if the buyout money goes away and there's only 2-4 "leftovers," then yeah, maybe. But the articles are implying that ESPN is trying to talk the leftovers into joining the AAC now to kill the buyout. That makes zero sense. They need to be trying to help OSU, Tech, KU, ISU, WVU, and maybe even KSU, find a P4 home, not colluding with the AAC. Only Baylor and TCU seem to be a shoo-in for the AAC, maybe KSU. The rest have good arguments for P4 invites.

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2 minutes ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

But Texas stayed and signed over their Tier 1 rights. So did OU. Willingly. 
 

They got more than the rest and stayed. 
 

and no, after today, you are not “Were Texas” anymore. You are in the Klan. The Klan takes their orders from the GRAND Mouse of Orlando. You will do as you are told. 

It's gonna be weird seeing the Donald Duck patch over the UT logo for sure.

3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Yes, this is the current complication right now.

Bowlsby has only one job-- to manage the conference as a collective.  He wants to maximize the exit penalty payments from TX and OU, he wants to hold the remainder of the conference together so it has a chance to retain its P5 status, and he (probably, if he' smart) wants to recruit new members to the conference, to replace those that have left.  He does NOT want the remaining member institutions to find "soft landings" anywhere else, because such a result is counter to his responsibilities as B12 Commissioner.  So he is actively working to sabotage any such potential moves.  IBut  don't really consider that a conflict of interest, because his responsibility is to the collective, not to any individual member institutions.  If the member institutions no longer believe he is acting in their best interests, then they have the power to fire him and replace him with someone they feel WILL do so.

The Irate8 on the other hand, have two objectives.  The first, is to find a soft landing spot in a P5(P4?) conference.  Getting into the B1G especially, but also potentially the ACC or PAC, would offer more stability than any other option.  But if they can't find a soft landing spot, then the secondary objective is to keep the B12 together because it still has the name, the branding, the bowl tie-ins, and the P5 status.  These objectives are conflicting, and so that's why we see them trying to work back-channel deals with power conferences in secret, while allowing Bowlsby to work publicly on behalf of the collective that is the B12.

 

 

Yep, Bowlsby doesn't give a shit about landing spots.  WVA (hypothetical) going to the ACC hurts his cause.  That's the conflict right now.  He may not only lose his job, but it could be a challenge getting another one as he'll be known as the guy that fell asleep at the wheel.

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2 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

This is a lot of guessing. 

If the Big 12 TV contract is restructured to be $9 million after Texas and OU leave then why wouldn't the AAC annual payout not be more if there were other additions to the conference? It would almost certainly be above $9 million. 

The buyout money is also a guess. At most $20 million but probably a lot less than that. You're overvaluing how much more lucrative the Big 12 will be than the AAC. 

 

I don't buy that number at all. It was the low end of an article intended to shit on the leftovers. I'm thinking more like $15 -$20 million. I base that solely on the fact that the AAC is at around 7 or 9 million and they have teams like Tulsa and Temple weighing them down. Baylor and TCU are far more valuable as the bottom end of the leftover 8.

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1 minute ago, 'stache said:

That's my point, if the buyout money goes away and there's only 2-4 "leftovers," then yeah, maybe. But the articles are implying that ESPN is trying to talk the leftovers into joining the AAC now to kill the buyout. That makes zero sense. They need to be trying to help OSU, Tech, KU, ISU, WVU, and maybe even KSU, find a P4 home, not colluding with the AAC. Only Baylor and TCU seem to be a shoo-in for the AAC, maybe KSU. The rest have good arguments for P4 invites.

The buyout is going to be reduced no matter what. 

$10 to $15 million per member is nothing. If you think that small amount of money is going to keep the irate 8 from leaving I don't know what to tell you. 

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But Texas stayed and signed over their Tier 1 rights. So did OU. Willingly. 
 
They got more than the rest and stayed. 
 
and no, after today, you are not “Were Texas” anymore. You are in the Klan. The Klan takes their orders from the GRAND Mouse of Orlando. You will do as you are told. 
Ok.... no idea what point you're trying to make
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1 minute ago, Smax said:

Ok.... no idea what point you're trying to make

He feels impotent and weak because he derives too much of his self-value from his alma mater's athletic program, so he's desperately trying to make others feel impotent and weak. Nothing more to it than that.

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5 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I don't buy that number at all. It was the low end of an article intended to shit on the leftovers. I'm thinking more like $15 -$20 million. I base that solely on the fact that the AAC is at around 7 or 9 million and they have teams like Tulsa and Temple weighing them down. Baylor and TCU are far more valuable as the bottom end of the leftover 8.

I hate to tell you this but the irate 8 has no more value than that AAC schools. They aren't worth double the amount of the AAC schools. 

Nobody is giving that group of 8 teams $20 million. The irate 8 will be lucky to get $20 million after joining the AAC. 

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Just now, Chopper said:

I guess you're finding out your school's puny market value right now, without Texas to boost it, and you're a little cranky. Feel free to fuck right off.

Oh. No…Im aware our market value is less without Texas on the schedule. No disputing that fact. 
 

Im just stating that the 8 will be paid until 2025 and that Texas and OU tier one will go to the Big 12 until 2025 because they own those rights. Then members will be allotted their shares. 
 

Yall can play those games wherever you like, but the Big 12 is getting that money until 2025. 

The only relief occurs is if the Big 12 disbands. 

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Just now, Rickylovesweed said:

The buyout is going to be reduced no matter what. 

$10 to $15 million per member is nothing. If you think that small amount of money is going to keep the irate 8 from leaving I don't know what to tell you. 

Exactly.  Even if it's 20 million, so what?  You're not a 60 year old divorcee riding off into the sunset.  You still want your sports televised?  Guess who you need to do that?  Very likely ESPN.  I get it, start high and then negotiate but I would be very careful in accusing your current and likely future boss on their questionable ethics.

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5 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

The buyout is going to be reduced no matter what. 

$10 to $15 million per member is nothing. If you think that small amount of money is going to keep the irate 8 from leaving I don't know what to tell you. 

I think you're being pretty optimistic about reduced buyouts and early exits. It worked out last round because nobody was really "left behind." The Big 12 continued to exist and actually increased its TV payout per team (iirc). You're talking about 8 schools that have been making $37 million a year (or something like that), who have invested a ton into facilities since 2011 in preparation for this, and being told that they're TV revenue could be cut to $9 million (again I don't buy it's that low but it's a huge haircut either way). If all 8 are left behind, rest assured they'll fight to the death for every dollar they can muster.

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49 minutes ago, South Austin said:

So many questions about this Perryman Group study.  Here's two:

First, I'm skeptical of how accurate the underlying research and data are given that the work started sometime within the past week.  In other words, we have to assume that this firm only started this "analysis" after news broke about Texas and Oklahoma leaving the SEC.  There's no reason it would've started earlier.  And, this isn't like preparing a family budget after one spouse loses a job.  This involves much more complicated analysis covering several economic markets.  Even with pulling all-nighters (doubtful), the speed at which this report was produced is one of many red flags.

 

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1 minute ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

Oh. No…Im aware our market value is less without Texas on the schedule. No disputing that fact. 
 

Im just stating that the 8 will be paid until 2025 and that Texas and OU tier one will go to the Big 12 until 2025 because they own those rights. Then members will be allotted their shares. 
 

Yall can play those games wherever you like, but the Big 12 is getting that money until 2025. 

The only relief occurs is if the Big 12 disbands. 

Yeah. We'll see if the GOR holds up in court. I don't think any conference wants to see that play out.

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Just now, Doyle Hargreaves said:

Oh. No…Im aware our market value is less without Texas on the schedule. No disputing that fact. 
 

Im just stating that the 8 will be paid until 2025 and that Texas and OU tier one will go to the Big 12 until 2025 because they own those rights. Then members will be allotted their shares. 
 

Yall can play those games wherever you like, but the Big 12 is getting that money until 2025. 

The only relief occurs is if the Big 12 disbands. 

It's almost like Doyle wasn't around for Colorado, Nebraska, Maryland, Mizzou, and aggy defections. Reading comprehension fail, too, from previous posts on the negotiated settlements.

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25 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

 

The ADs, for any school with even a shred of common sense, will have no impact on where all of this goes. I'm assuming we'll see some sort of joint statement of solidarity coming out of this gathering. Best case scenario for our entertainment is that Bowlsby or one of the ADs attempts to force the others into agreeing to extend the GOR or some other show of solidarity in writing through 2025 or something along these lines. I doubt more than one or two of the Irate 8 will be signing a commitment to anything going forward. 

"Hey, West Virginia, we need you to sign in writing that you will not communicated with any other conference, nor agents on your behalf, until the spring of 2025 or ever, under penalty of forfeiture of media rights/league fees/etc." Right.

But, hey, this has been a league full of lazy dumbasses, so who knows? Any school that would fire Mike Leach in the prime of his work, elevating the program to heights never seen before and discussed on the national level, is probably capable of doing something that stupid. I have to believe a school intent on covering up an institutionalized rape factory and a basktetball player's murder lacks enough scruples to commit to much of anything though. 

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3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I don't buy that number at all. It was the low end of an article intended to shit on the leftovers. I'm thinking more like $15 -$20 million. I base that solely on the fact that the AAC is at around 7 or 9 million and they have teams like Tulsa and Temple weighing them down. Baylor and TCU are far more valuable as the bottom end of the leftover 8.

You’re still vastly overestimating the Irate 8. From 2016 to 2020, non-UT/OU viewership averaged 980k per game. Over that same timespan, the AAC averaged 928k. Not only that, but the AAC outperformed the Irate 8 in 2018 and 2019. 
 

The irate 8 is extremely comparable to the AAC and slightly above them at  9mm seems about right, if not generous since they were outperformed by the AAC 2 of the last 3 seasons in football. I’d agree that Basketball could make the difference from 7 up to 9, but the idea of 15-20 million per team is absurd and never going to happen. 

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31 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

I thought we formed conferences to compete athletically and share the proceeds.

I didn't think we formed conferences so the large could adopt the small and care for them in perpetuity.

Guess I was wrong.

Texas A&M is still in your new family...

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7 minutes ago, 'stache said:

That's my point, if the buyout money goes away and there's only 2-4 "leftovers," then yeah, maybe. But the articles are implying that ESPN is trying to talk the leftovers into joining the AAC now to kill the buyout. That makes zero sense. They need to be trying to help OSU, Tech, KU, ISU, WVU, and maybe even KSU, find a P4 home, not colluding with the AAC. Only Baylor and TCU seem to be a shoo-in for the AAC, maybe KSU. The rest have good arguments for P4 invites.

Which of the remaining 8 can walk into a P4 conference and trigger a renegotiation with the network to increase current members payouts?  I'm just not seeing how any of these teams increase the TV deal for an existing P4 member.

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1 minute ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

Oh. No…Im aware our market value is less without Texas on the schedule. No disputing that fact. 
 

Im just stating that the 8 will be paid until 2025 and that Texas and OU tier one will go to the Big 12 until 2025 because they own those rights. Then members will be allotted their shares 
 

Yall can play those games wherever you like, but the Big 12 is getting that money until 2025. 

The only relief occurs is if the Big 12 disbands. 

No, they'll negotiate and take a buyout.

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1 minute ago, Burt Macklin said:

You’re still vastly overestimating the Irate 8. From 2016 to 2020, non-UT/OU viewership averaged 980k per game. Over that same timespan, the AAC averaged 928k. Not only that, but the AAC outperformed the Irate 8 in 2018 and 2019. 
 

The irate 8 is extremely comparable to the AAC and slightly above them at  9mm seems about right, if not generous since they were outperformed by the AAC 2 of the last 3 seasons in football. I’d agree that Basketball could make the difference from 7 up to 9, but the idea of 15-20 million per team is absurd and never going to happen. 

The Irate 8 schools don't want to admit this but they are no more valuable than the AAC. 

 

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1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

He feels impotent and weak because he derives too much of his self-value from his alma mater's athletic program, so he's desperately trying to make others feel impotent and weak. Nothing more to it than that.

Are you not joining Aggy today? Yes you are. They won. You lost. 
 

You are not the Joneses, you just a Mouse puppet. You are in the Klan now. 
 

Aggy is your standard:) 

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9 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Yep, Bowlsby doesn't give a shit about landing spots.  WVA (hypothetical) going to the ACC hurts his cause.  That's the conflict right now.  He may not only lose his job, but it could be a challenge getting another one as he'll be known as the guy that fell asleep at the wheel.

 

Bowlsby driving the Irate8 into the future...

 

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1 minute ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Which of the remaining 8 can walk into a P4 conference and trigger a renegotiation with the network to increase current members payouts?  I'm just not seeing how any of these teams increase the TV deal for an existing P4 member.

There was a lot of number crunching yesterday. OSU v. ISU, OSU v. Tech, and OSU v. KSU would have been in the top 10 watched games in the Pac-12. And there is value to the conference in the central time zone. This thread goes too fast to find it, but that was the gist of it. 

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3 minutes ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

Oh. No…Im aware our market value is less without Texas on the schedule. No disputing that fact. 
 

Im just stating that the 8 will be paid until 2025 and that Texas and OU tier one will go to the Big 12 until 2025 because they own those rights. Then members will be allotted their shares. 
 

Yall can play those games wherever you like, but the Big 12 is getting that money until 2025. 

The only relief occurs is if the Big 12 disbands. 

I hate to burst your little Lubbock bubble, but that is not at all how it’s going to play out. But you can keep lying to yourself about the situation the same way you did when Beard left for a much better school if it helps you sleep at night. 

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1 minute ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

Are you not joining Aggy today? Yes you are. They won. You lost. 
 

You are not the Joneses, you just a Mouse puppet. You are in the Klan now. 
 

Aggy is your standard:) 

We are the richest mouse puppet out there, and that's what really matters in professional college sports.

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13 minutes ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

Freeloaders? Wtf? Texas and OU cant play themselves every week. 

Yes. Don't be simple minded.  Just because your team is needed doesn't mean they aren't overpaid.

5 minutes ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

But Texas stayed and signed over their Tier 1 rights. So did OU. Willingly. 
They got more than the rest and stayed. 
and no, after today, you are not “Were Texas” anymore. You are in the Klan. The Klan takes their orders from the GRAND Mouse of Orlando. You will do as you are told. 

Willingness to pay your team 39 million instead of their worth, 9 million, makes TX/ou gracious and your school subsidized out of necessity, hence a freeloader.  Its another reason Nebraska left.  The wanted even more freeloading than TX/ou were willing to afford them.  So they decided to get some other dumb cuck, B10, to pay their welfare.  The gall. 

Lastly, you don't know shit about fuck about Texas' business dealings with SEC so crawl back under your rock.  

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9 minutes ago, Smax said:
19 minutes ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:
But Texas stayed and signed over their Tier 1 rights. So did OU. Willingly. 
 
They got more than the rest and stayed. 
 
and no, after today, you are not “Were Texas” anymore. You are in the Klan. The Klan takes their orders from the GRAND Mouse of Orlando. You will do as you are told. 

Ok.... no idea what point you're trying to make

Hypocrisy. 

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5 minutes ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

Are you not joining Aggy today? Yes you are. They won. You lost. 
 

You are not the Joneses, you just a Mouse puppet. You are in the Klan now. 
 

Aggy is your standard:) 

With conference mates like you, no wonder they want out.

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9 minutes ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

Oh. No…Im aware our market value is less without Texas on the schedule. No disputing that fact. 
 

Im just stating that the 8 will be paid until 2025 and that Texas and OU tier one will go to the Big 12 until 2025 because they own those rights. Then members will be allotted their shares. 
 

Yall can play those games wherever you like, but the Big 12 is getting that money until 2025. 

The only relief occurs is if the Big 12 disbands. 

Sure Jan. How are you guys spending this year’s tier 1 money from Nebraska, Missouri, Colorado, and aggy?

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3 minutes ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

Are you not joining Aggy today? Yes you are. They won. You lost. 
 

You are not the Joneses, you just a Mouse puppet. You are in the Klan now. 
 

Aggy is your standard:) 

Ahh yes, Texas Tech and their legion of fans from diverse cities such as Lubbock, Abernathy, Sundown(!!!), Whitharral, and Floydada who are NOT in the klan? 
 

don’t start that shit unless you’re talking about Mississippi and Mississippi State.

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1 minute ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

Hypocrisy. 

How is it Hypocrisy when we're knocking the freeloaders off the tit? Now you'll get to go play among your peers in the AAC, and we'll play among ours who actually draw a comparable media market. People are throwing around numbers like 80m a year for the SEC media deal now and the AAC + the IR8 is looking at 9m. If that's not self explanatory I don't know what is.

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22 minutes ago, 'stache said:

That's my point, if the buyout money goes away and there's only 2-4 "leftovers," then yeah, maybe. But the articles are implying that ESPN is trying to talk the leftovers into joining the AAC now to kill the buyout. That makes zero sense. They need to be trying to help OSU, Tech, KU, ISU, WVU, and maybe even KSU, find a P4 home, not colluding with the AAC. Only Baylor and TCU seem to be a shoo-in for the AAC, maybe KSU. The rest have good arguments for P4 invites.

We're only hearing Bowlsby's side of this, and his view is limited to whichever squealing school is feeding him info.  

It's entirely possible that ESPN actually IS working to land some of the Irate8 in a Power5, and that whoever Bowlsby is talking to, isn't on that list.  I mean, as you point out, it's in ESPN's best interest to dissolve the B12.  I doubt they'd only pursue one method of doing so.  If I were their lead strategist, I certainly wouldn't attempt only one potential path to my goals.

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