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Realignment talk not going away


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2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

The long debate in this thread on streaming issues is not surprising to me. I have some investments in steaming and it is the Wild West.  

At home, I have Apple+, Roku, Netflix, Netflix DVDs, Disney, Max, Prime, multiple smart TV’s, Fire sticks, a Fire TV, Google sticks, and U-Verse.  The entire landscape is going to blow up soon because live sports is at the heart of the value equation. 

Every streaming service will angle for live sports deals, just like networks did for many years. That means the Apple offer is just the beginning. Prime and others are next. Expect steaming to win a lot of these deals.  

As far as the technology goes, it sounded like the entire thread was inhabited by 95 year old grandmothers. The steaming of live sports over any of these steaming services is a piece of cake, even for bars, etc. 

Networks need these games to survive so they will always value them much higher than streamers who can live off of content they produce/d. Keeping this sport on networks/cable is the only way for it to survive and continue to grow. 

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Here's a PDF of the ACC GOR before it was renewed and extended to 2036: 

https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2022/07/01185531/ACC-Grant-of-Rights-1.pdf

It's is only 4 pages long + signature pages and is allegedly based in part on the B12 GOR contract. A quick google search shows multiple lawyers quoted calling it ironclad. 

Texas and OU would have fought the Big12 one and bolted to the SEC sooner if they thought there was a way to do so.  Unless the ACC caves, Florida State would seem to be in an un-winnable position.  Talk is cheap, but if they FA it seems like they will FO. 

 

Source for the PDF: https://theathletic.com/3396108/2022/07/01/acc-grant-of-rights-staples/

 

Any lawyer's care to read a 4 pager and comment?

 

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25 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

Once again, the FSU General Counsel is probably losing his shit right now with these rogue trustees opening their big mouths.

The FSU General Counsel right now:

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I don't get this, how does it change anything legally speaking for them to say they don't like the contract and want out? It doesn't make it any easier or harder for them to win that case. The numbers from other conference contracts is public knowledge. I haven't seen them talking about direct conversations with other conferences, but even then, people have a pretty distorted view on "collusion" and "tortious interference" when it comes to business contracts. This country is pure capitalism, if there's more money to be made elsewhere, it's expected the players will move that direction. Doesn't change what the contract says and that they will have to fight like hell to get out of it for a reasonable cost. I actually appreciate this approach to the generic "we are committed to our conference" even when they add "and will move forward in the best interest of our program." Such drivel. Everyone knows FSU is valuable, much more so than the contract they're bound by, of course they're gonna try to get out and make more money. 

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6 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

The long debate in this thread on streaming issues is not surprising to me. I have some investments in steaming and it is the Wild West.  

At home, I have Apple+, Roku, Netflix, Netflix DVDs, Disney, Max, Prime, multiple smart TV’s, Fire sticks, a Fire TV, Google sticks, and U-Verse.  The entire landscape is going to blow up soon because live sports is at the heart of the value equation. 

Every streaming service will angle for live sports deals, just like networks did for many years. That means the Apple offer is just the beginning. Prime and others are next. Expect steaming to win a lot of these deals.  

As far as the technology goes, it sounded like the entire thread was inhabited by 95 year old grandmothers. The steaming of live sports over any of these steaming services is a piece of cake, even for bars, etc. 

Seriously. TVs have these services literally built in. It takes 2 seconds to put on a MLS game in Apple TV and it's way faster and quicker than cable.

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1 minute ago, Frank Drebin said:

To destabilize the conference so other teams look around.

That's what I'm thinking too.  It can also give cover to schools that have more reluctant admins to join the exodus.  We're seeing in the PAC how the run for the exits starts once fear kicks in.

The other plausible explanation is that this is all just kabuki theatre huffing and puffing to get Wake, BC, etc to agree to uneven shares of the media deal.  But after everything the FSu people have said over the last 24 hours, their boosters and fans will riot if they just tuck their tails between their legs and go back to the ACC.

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4 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

That's what I'm thinking too.  It can also give cover to schools that have more reluctant admins to join the exodus.  We're seeing in the PAC how the run for the exits starts once fear kicks in.

The other plausible explanation is that this is all just kabuki theatre huffing and puffing to get Wake, BC, etc to agree to uneven shares of the media deal.  But after everything the FSu people have said over the last 24 hours, their boosters and fans will riot if they just tuck their tails between their legs and go back to the ACC.

I'm thinking it might be a bit of panic by FSU because they see the number of outside slots going away.

The chaos concept was about convincing enough ACC teams that there were better options out there in the SEC, B1G and Big 12.

Well, one slot is already gone in the Big 12 and it looks like we're days away from the Big 12 closing up expansion shop and with it, their ability to sell the idea to several ACC schools.

--

This could also be why we're suddenly seeing OU and UW to B1G rumors again. The B1G wants all of their possible expansion options fighting for a spot and probably willing to take even less money to make it happen.

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3 minutes ago, Josef Pwag said:

A couple of weeks ago, I would have 100% agreed. I don't think anything is off the table right now. 

I agree with you in a broad sense for CFB in general, but not for those schools going to the SEC.  

PDX and Seattle are literally in the opposite corner of the country from the old-line SEC schools, most of which have rarely gone further west than TX for OOC games.  There's no way Bama, UGA, UF, Tenn, AU, etc are signing up for regular trips to the PNW and Bay Area.  Even for UT and OU, those aren't quick flights.

The PNW and Bay schools would be dilutive for SEC revenue, and there are no worse cultural fits for the SEC in FBS than Cal, UW, UO and Stanford.

 

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Of all the names flying around the only schools that don't crater the Big10 and SEC tv value are Oregon, Washington, Clemson, and FSU. Every other team (Stanford, Cal, UNC etc.) are ranked outside the top 40 in average viewers last year while Washington is the lowest of the big 4 at 34. Taking in those 4 may not add full media share value to those conferences but it does help offset the negative values of the Vanderbilts and Rutgers of the world. 

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12 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I don't get this, how does it change anything legally speaking for them to say they don't like the contract and want out? It doesn't make it any easier or harder for them to win that case. The numbers from other conference contracts is public knowledge. I haven't seen them talking about direct conversations with other conferences, but even then, people have a pretty distorted view on "collusion" and "tortious interference" when it comes to business contracts. This country is pure capitalism, if there's more money to be made elsewhere, it's expected the players will move that direction. Doesn't change what the contract says and that they will have to fight like hell to get out of it for a reasonable cost. I actually appreciate this approach to the generic "we are committed to our conference" even when they add "and will move forward in the best interest of our program." Such drivel. Everyone knows FSU is valuable, much more so than the contract they're bound by, of course they're gonna try to get out and make more money. 

What FSU is attempting to do, if this is really what they are trying to do, is extremely complicated, if it can even be done, and it is fraught with legal hurdles.  It's also a chess match.  If FSU is legitimately trying to do this, the last thing the General Counsel would want is for anything to be made public too early.  Don't show your cards until you have to.  But these trustees coming out and saying all of this publicly in the haphazard way they seem to be doing it does not help the strategy (unless, and this is a definite possibility, this is a smokescreen on FSU's part).

Regardless, loose lips sink ships.  

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23 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

To destabilize the conference so other teams look around.

Hey I've seen this one before, they obviously read the first part of Hitlers plan to topple Russia, kicking in the front door to let the rest of the rotten house fall in upon itself. Guessing they stopped reading there and decided thats a great plan...

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19 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

I'm thinking it might be a bit of panic by FSU because they see the number of outside slots going away.

The chaos concept was about convincing enough ACC teams that there were better options out there in the SEC, B1G and Big 12.

Well, one slot is already gone in the Big 12 and it looks like we're days away from the Big 12 closing up expansion shop and with it, their ability to sell the idea to several ACC schools.

I don't think it's panic, because the BIG would take FSU in a heartbeat, just like the B12 would take UW and UO, even if it means they go to 18. 

FSU supposedly is on the verge of becoming AAU, but they would get in without it, since the BIG wanted ND for years, and they just got AAU last month.

No other school besides ND brings more value to the BIG than FSU- another big brand, BTN $$$ increase, recruiting access, alum engagement in FL.

If the BIG brings in FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC and UVA, ND will be coming also, and the BIG now has a Southeast wing.

//

 

It could also be that FSU has deal in hand with the BIG but is trying to get the SEC to take them by making a public show of the fact that they're leaving.

 

 

 

Edited by USC Traveler
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For both Fox and ESPN, It is cheaper, and ultimately better for downstream revenue, for Oregon and Washington to join the Big12.  They get them for less that way, and help bolster that conference into something they can package and sell for years to come.  The writing is on the wall, in my opinion.  PNW is not going B1G, and the PAC is already collapsed.  They have one landing spot.

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2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 



I agree with the above.....I also don't think that BIG wants Cal or Stanford.

The Presidents do for the academic prestige, access to their libraries/research and alumni base in the Bay Area.  I dont think the TV networks do.  If they come along, it'll be at 50% share IMO

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11 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

I don't think it's panic, because the BIG would take FSU in a heartbeat, just like the B12 would take UW and UO, even if it means they go to 18. 

FSU supposedly is on the verge of becoming AAU, but they would get in without it, since the BIG wanted ND for years, and they just got AAU last month.

No other school besides ND brings more value to the BIG than FSU- another big brand, BTN $$$ increase, recruiting access, alum engagement in FL.

If the BIG brings in FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC and UVA, ND will be coming also, and the BIG now has a Southeast wing.

//

 

It could also be that FSU has deal in hand with the BIG but is trying to get the SEC to take them by making a public show of the fact that they're leaving.

 

 

 

Neither the SEC or B1G are going to touch FSU unless they know for a fact that FSU has it’s media rights free and clear. Neither conference is going to be dragged into massive legal dispute with the ACC and its media partners. 

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2 hours ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Yes, God forbid the conference responsible for the whole realignment shit show look predatory.

Big 10 matches Stanford for arrogance.  They talk about their equal revenue sharing while stripping the best from other conferences and raping their new members (NU, MD, RU).  Nebraska is probably just now catching up with Iowa St. since they left the Big 12.  Rutgers had over a $200 million buy-in.

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Florida State has always acted this way and the only difference is they are broadcasting their behavior to the rest of the country because in their warped mind, this helps them.

I'm sure Washington and Oregon really wants to move to the B10 but do you see their administrators acting this way? No because it's childish and embarrassing.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Sir Ulrich said:

I would love for them to come to the 12 if possible. Then add Uconn/Gonzaga for hoops only and that is #3 in football, #1 in hoops, and #2 in baseball. Hard to beat that. 

I think the Big 12 is better off without the west coast and sticking to the MTZ.

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1 hour ago, 66BUFF said:

I thought there were tweets that said that Fox would only go to 16 in the Big 12 if they were OR and WA?  ESPN would go to 16 as long as they were P5 adds.

Yes.  There were also tweets that it was unlimited P5s.  There's no reliable info on that.  What is certain is that Fox and ESPN ARE good with two P5s.  They will at least listen attentively beyond that.

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9 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

For both Fox and ESPN, It is cheaper, and ultimately better for downstream revenue, for Oregon and Washington to join the Big12.  They get them for less that way, and help bolster that conference into something they can package and sell for years to come.  The writing is on the wall, in my opinion.  PNW is not going B1G, and the PAC is already collapsed.  They have one landing spot.

I'm thinking this is correct.

If I'm ESPN/FOX and I want Oregon/Washington inventory, it seems like my options are:

  • Pay ~$30mm/year for them in the Big 12
  • Pay ~$50mm/year for them in the B1G

In the Big 12 they most certainly enhance the value of the conference as a whole, making the Big 12 a clear/iron-clad #3 conference and I own all of that inventory, in addition to the "Big 2."

Meanwhile, I can poach two much more valuable programs (FSU/Clemson) from the ACC and further enhance my "Big 2" investments.

The more I think about it, the more this makes the most sense.  

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11 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

For both Fox and ESPN, It is cheaper, and ultimately better for downstream revenue, for Oregon and Washington to join the Big12.  They get them for less that way, and help bolster that conference into something they can package and sell for years to come.  The writing is on the wall, in my opinion.  PNW is not going B1G, and the PAC is already collapsed.  They have one landing spot.

FOX drives the bus, but they don’t have full control. If the Big Ten can pitch a weekly late night kick to ESPN with the best of the P12 that people wanted to watch (USC/UCLA/Oregon/Washington) vs Big Ten teams and Oregon/Washington join for only $32m/yr until the next contract that likely is a good value proposition for the conference as they had 3 games on OTA and another likely on ESPN late which covers every network giving everyone a vested interest in the conference. That late kick would likely only complete with the 4C B12 teams which are a tier below.

Weekly the Big Ten would have coverage on FOX, CBS, NBC, ESPN, FS1 (possibly a 2nd when no teams on bye week), and 3 games on BTN.

Stanford/Cal don’t really do the same thing or make anything better for the Big Ten outside of academics, the SFO market, and as ND bait.

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It seems odd that there appears to be no leaks, speculation, tinfoil hat theses, or anything of even marginal objective substance or depth (if objective substance is even a thing anymore in these shenanigans) linked to the SEC in these most-recent machinations…especially considering (or perhaps because) Sankey is arguably a wizard……

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The $20M is a lot more than they make in the AAC, but man, SMU should think long and hard about losing exposure because odds are every single one of their games would be exclusive to the Apple + package. At least in the AAC, people can stumble upon their games and watch.

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3 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

FOX drives the bus, but they don’t have full control. If the Big Ten can pitch a weekly late night kick to ESPN with the best of the P12 that people wanted to watch (USC/UCLA/Oregon/Washington) vs Big Ten teams and Oregon/Washington join for only $32m/yr until the next contract that likely is a good value proposition for the conference as they had 3 games on OTA and another likely on ESPN late which covers every network giving everyone a vested interest in the conference. That late kick would likely only complete with the 4C B12 teams which are a tier below.

Weekly the Big Ten would have coverage on FOX, CBS, NBC, ESPN, FS1 (possibly a 2nd when no teams on bye week), and 3 games on BTN.

Stanford/Cal don’t really do the same thing or make anything better for the Big Ten outside of academics, the SFO market, and as ND bait.

ESPN and FOX both own significant Big12 rights, and they both come out ahead with Oregon and Washington in the Big 12.   With fucking Rutgers getting a full share in the B1G, I have a difficult time seeing Oregon or Washington agreeing to a reduced share, but it's possible.   I just don't see the value for ESPN or FOX here.  The only ones rooting for this are those who love the idea of a P2 system when it's becoming clear the networks want a P3.  And while the schools can always say no to an offer, that's the extent of the say they have in all this.

 

The one thing I hope everyone can agree on is that Utah belongs back in the cellar.

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3 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

ESPN and FOX both own significant Big12 rights, and they both come out ahead with Oregon and Washington in the Big 12.   With fucking Rutgers getting a full share in the B1G, I have a difficult time seeing Oregon or Washington agreeing to a reduced share, but it's possible.   I just don't see the value for ESPN or FOX here.  The only ones rooting for this are those who love the idea of a P2 system when it's becoming clear the networks want a P3.  And while the schools can always say no to an offer, that's the extent of the say they have in all this.

 

The one thing I hope everyone can agree on is that Utah belongs back in the cellar.

Oregon and Washington agree to a reduced share because that is their only option.  

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8 minutes ago, 'stache said:

The $20M is a lot more than they make in the AAC, but man, SMU should think long and hard about losing exposure because odds are every single one of their games would be exclusive to the Apple + package. At least in the AAC, people can stumble upon their games and watch.

I thought the Pac did not want schools affiliated with religions?

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Just now, Samson's Wig said:

But it's not their only option. 

Agreed, but between a full Big 12 share or a reduced B1G share , it's a wash at worst, and they probably make more in the B1G at say a $40m number and are way ahead of any PAC option.  

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55 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

That's what I'm thinking too.  It can also give cover to schools that have more reluctant admins to join the exodus.  We're seeing in the PAC how the run for the exits starts once fear kicks in.

The other plausible explanation is that this is all just kabuki theatre huffing and puffing to get Wake, BC, etc to agree to uneven shares of the media deal.  But after everything the FSu people have said over the last 24 hours, their boosters and fans will riot if they just tuck their tails between their legs and go back to the ACC.

I said that same thing when FSU first started this however long ago in their public meeting. There playing an angle because there is no way they are not beating their fanbase into a frenzy 13 years before time...

The only thing I've heard to may make sense is that the  GOR wasn't signed as part of the Conference requirements.  The contract is between the schools and ESPN.  So it's ultimately ESPN who holds the grant of rights and not the ACC itself. So if ESPN is willing to let them out, the ACC can only hold them to the exit fee., and as long as ESPN doesn't change the contract's value (which is peanuts), for the duration, they can't even sue either for losses...  I'm not sure of the validity of any of this, but maybe there's something there

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2 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Agreed, but between a full Big 12 share or a reduced B1G share , it's a wash at worst, and they probably make more in the B1G at say a $40m number and are way ahead of any PAC option.  

True.  I still don't think B1G wants anything to do with Oregon and Washington.  The paperwork would already be drawn up and done.  If anything, this leak of a meeting to talk about the PNW schools is more about pressuring Notre Dame, and/or putting heat on ACC schools to figure out a way to break free.

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17 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

ESPN and FOX both own significant Big12 rights, and they both come out ahead with Oregon and Washington in the Big 12.   With fucking Rutgers getting a full share in the B1G, I have a difficult time seeing Oregon or Washington agreeing to a reduced share, but it's possible.   I just don't see the value for ESPN or FOX here.  The only ones rooting for this are those who love the idea of a P2 system when it's becoming clear the networks want a P3.  And while the schools can always say no to an offer, that's the extent of the say they have in all this.

 

The one thing I hope everyone can agree on is that Utah belongs back in the cellar.

There is no such thing as a P3. The differences in the media deals between the SEC/Big 10 and the Big XII illustrate that pretty damn clear. 
 

that’s why UO, UW, FSU and anyone else worth a damn will want to get into one of the big two. Signing with the Big XII just confirms that they are left behind. 

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48 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

For both Fox and ESPN, It is cheaper, and ultimately better for downstream revenue, for Oregon and Washington to join the Big12.  They get them for less that way, and help bolster that conference into something they can package and sell for years to come.  The writing is on the wall, in my opinion.  PNW is not going B1G, and the PAC is already collapsed.  They have one landing spot.

Colorado, Arizona, Oregon and Washington is a solid add for big12 if ACC is going to be divided up by BIG and SEC. Fox and ESPN are under financial strain. No way they write a check for an additional 30m per school, even if full shares come after a few years. Why do it when you can package them up under your existing big12 contract, which, strangely, allows for additional adds with the same per school payout, even stipulating UO and UW for 15/16. 

It's almost like this has been the plan all along. 

 

-conspiracy? Maybe. But I cannot begin to describe the amount of thought work and scenario building I and my newly hired team could accomplish for a couple million dollars. Start talking about billions of dollars and hundred million dollar decision trees and there is no way ABC/ESPN and FOX haven't worked this all out. I could do it for giggles in a week, and I use a mouse with Excel.  

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16 minutes ago, Gaffords said:

I said that same thing when FSU first started this however long ago in their public meeting. There playing an angle because there is no way they are not beating their fanbase into a frenzy 13 years before time...

The only thing I've heard to may make sense is that the  GOR wasn't signed as part of the Conference requirements.  The contract is between the schools and ESPN.  So it's ultimately ESPN who holds the grant of rights and not the ACC itself. So if ESPN is willing to let them out, the ACC can only hold them to the exit fee., and as long as ESPN doesn't change the contract's value (which is peanuts), for the duration, they can't even sue either for losses...  I'm not sure of the validity of any of this, but maybe there's something there

I think ESPN holding the rights to the ACC & SEC makes it more difficult for FSU to get out right now. ESPN has no reason to bring them over to the SEC when they're paying pennies & have more than enough exposure in the SE, they don't move the needle anywhere close to UT/USC/or ND so the need to try to lock them up long term & the potential marquee matchups they provide don't apply, & there's no amount of inventory to give ESPN in order to work out a reduced buyout & I don't think FSU has the money to pay the 13 years left on the deal. The only ace in the hole is if FSU could convince ND to come to the SEC with them which seems incredibly unlikely but that would be the only thing that may give ESPN reason to consider it.

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44 minutes ago, Jkhombre said:

It seems odd that there appears to be no leaks, speculation, tinfoil hat theses, or anything of even marginal objective substance or depth (if objective substance is even a thing anymore in these shenanigans) linked to the SEC in these most-recent machinations…especially considering (or perhaps because) Sankey is arguably a wizard……

Very, very quiet. 

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42 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

ESPN and FOX both own significant Big12 rights, and they both come out ahead with Oregon and Washington in the Big 12.   With fucking Rutgers getting a full share in the B1G, I have a difficult time seeing Oregon or Washington agreeing to a reduced share, but it's possible.   I just don't see the value for ESPN or FOX here.  The only ones rooting for this are those who love the idea of a P2 system when it's becoming clear the networks want a P3.  And while the schools can always say no to an offer, that's the extent of the say they have in all this.

 

The one thing I hope everyone can agree on is that Utah belongs back in the cellar.

UTAH is toast. 

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24 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

But it's not faster or quicker to switch from game to game than it is on cable. For those of us who like to consume college football with a healthy dose of ADHD and jumping around, it's sucks. That's my only problem with streaming. I have league pass on the NBA app and if I want to watch another NBA game on TNT or ESPN or a locally carried Spurs game, it's a pain in the ass to go from app to cable and back.

This.

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3 hours ago, TrashMaster G said:

Utah is the chick who thinks she's hotter than she is because she bagged a rich Sugar Daddy.

Problem is, he beats her and is about to file for bankruptcy.

And, pencil-dick that he is, his condoms fall off on the reg, and she just found out he has open herpes sores...

 

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43 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

I thought the Pac did not want schools affiliated with religions?

The Methodist Churches role was already weak but the university separated entirely from the church in 2019. The M is basically meaningless at this point.

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53 minutes ago, Gaffords said:

I said that same thing when FSU first started this however long ago in their public meeting. There playing an angle because there is no way they are not beating their fanbase into a frenzy 13 years before time...

The only thing I've heard to may make sense is that the  GOR wasn't signed as part of the Conference requirements.  The contract is between the schools and ESPN.  So it's ultimately ESPN who holds the grant of rights and not the ACC itself. So if ESPN is willing to let them out, the ACC can only hold them to the exit fee., and as long as ESPN doesn't change the contract's value (which is peanuts), for the duration, they can't even sue either for losses...  I'm not sure of the validity of any of this, but maybe there's something there

Great to see you posting in here.  I always enjoyed kicking ideas around with you back on the Shaggy realignment thread.

I recall you and I (amongst others) feeling like the PAC not partnering with ESPN/FOX on PACNet and not taking UT, OU and the gang b/c of LHN meant the PAC was eventually doomed.  And here we are........

 

The FSU stuff is really interesting.  If they move, the other football schools will follow and the ACC will crumble as fast as the PAC is.

I hadn't read your theory above anywhere before.  ESPN is hurting for cash.  They are losing subs while the cost of rights keeps going up.  Their model is upside down now.  If they let the BIG take some of the ACC schools, and the conference crumbles, that's one less media obligation at a time when they need to do a new NBA deal, etc.  It could be viable as a way for ESPN to get into business with the BIG again.

//

What I've read on their 247 board is that they think they have a fraud case against Swofford and the ACC, and that's their way out.

Either way, there  is a massive amount of smoke around FSU.

 

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26 minutes ago, 'stache said:

The Methodist Churches role was already weak but the university separated entirely from the church in 2019. The M is basically meaningless at this point.

HOW DARE YOU! 

I'll have you know I send my daughters to SMU so they can get right with god. 

*also, to get married.

**to a shit bag.

***God willing. 

****No pics. Fight me. 

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