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Eric Nahlin: "What is going on?" A Look at the Macro/Micro NIL Landscape

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I have a very busy morning but wanted to get something up quickly. I was hoping to turn this into a more fleshed out piece but time is not on my side and I need to feed the beast. Today we’ll discuss the macro NIL/Portal landscape with a quick micro look after a couple of developments on Monday. First, let’s look big picture thanks to a couple of phone calls to college personnel department people in different parts of the country. 

Macro

How crazy is the current NIL/Portal climate? Outside of the top quarterbacks or one-offs like Jeremiah Smith, Dylan Stewart, and Colin Simmons, the feeling is everyone is available everywhere. There are only a handful of players who are untouchable simply due to what they make and a school’s resolve to keep them. IT has mentioned how the agent community actually makes it easier for schools to find talent.

Let’s forget for the moment that the agent community also makes it harder to keep your talent. It’s even easier than I thought for schools to “find” potential imPorts. Agents will send schools lists of the players they represent and personnel departments will scout to identify who they want. If you like a player, you simply ask about his circumstances and the conversation evolves from there.

Coaching changes are as brutal as we thought for schools. Any school with a new coach is having their existing roster shopped. Schools scramble to keep the absolute best players first. At Florida, that’s obviously Jadan Baugh, Dallas Wilson, and Vernell Brown. Florida is just one example, Auburn is another, so too is Ole Miss. Of the playoff teams, only Ole Miss is getting hit hard by attempts at poaching. I guess there’s already blood in the water with new hire Pete Golding. That might get interesting after their playoff game.

The NIL agent pool is not the best and brightest. This is tangential to a question we received in a recent Q&A. The smart ones are all young and inexperienced. While uncles have largely been replaced, there are a lot of agents with the “uncle” mindset. That is, their goal is driving the biggest deal possible no matter how unrealistic the number is and trying to create an auction even if the player is already fairly compensated. 

I’ve heard of a lot of examples along those lines. Player X is making FMV but the agent steps up looking for that one school to drive the price up. In the end, the market is whatever someone is willing to pay. A lot of what the uncle agents initially ask for is comically unrealistic. I was given a couple of examples that just made me laugh. Wanting $250K for a receiver with single digit catches? Come on.

Everybody seems to have a good idea of what everybody else is paying. You know what it cost you to land a player and you know what you offered a player to stay who elected to leave. After enough of this scenarios a clear picture comes together. Plus, everyone behind the scenes talks. Not so much during this crucial period but throughout the offseason. There are very few secrets when it comes to player compensation.

IT asked about the Texas roster and was told Texas doesn’t lose players because they pay up for the ones they want to keep. Outside of the players already in the portal, there’s very little noise on Texas players as of right now. 

Micro 

Yesterday we saw a shocker with Liona Lefau electing to enter the portal when it opens (January 2-16). Not much surprises us in the Portal Times but that certainly did. My intel points to a school making an offer that Texas didn’t want to match. What I don’t know, however, is what he was making and what the new price tag is. Texas knows, though, and now will apply that number towards a replacement.

IT reported that DeAndre Moore won’t be back next season. He’s heading to the NFL Draft. Could Texas have worked out a deal? Well, Texas already worked out at least two deals with him prior. But, if you take what he was asking for and add a little bit to it, what sort of player can you get in return? We should find out. In everyday life we all make these simple cost/benefit computations yet some are surprised when the staff does the same thing.

On Twitter I constantly see “what is going on???” every time we report a player is leaving. Basic economics is going on. Texas is fortunate to be in the position it is where not nearly as many players leave due to money and any player that leaves in search of better opportunity can be replaced or perhaps even upgraded. 

 

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Posted
On 12/5/2025 at 10:03 AM, tokamak said:

Jett Walker's tape is just 5 minutes of him running straight ahead through holes you could drive a truck through. It's not even a 1-cut running style, it's like 0-cut. He does have good size, decent straight line speed, and doesn't mind contact. I suppose he's a guy that's happy to come to Texas, play school, get 30 carries a year trucking defenders from SHSU, and be a motherfucker on special teams.

I think the last sentence is what matters. Also, Sark is probably looking for power back style who will drop his head at the goal line and push the pile.

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Posted
42 minutes ago, lilMAC25 said:

I think the last sentence is what matters. Also, Sark is probably looking for power back style who will drop his head at the goal line and push the pile.

Exactly. if we can get a Joe Bergeron style career arc from Walker, I would be good with that. 

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

Exactly. if we can get a Joe Bergeron style career arc from Walker, I would be good with that. 

Man, I wish that guy coulda 

a. Hung onto the ball

b. Had a better attitude. 
 

 

He ran with violence we’ve rarely seen from a Texas RB since Ced.

Edited by lilMAC25
Posted
5 hours ago, Vertigo said:

Exactly. if we can get a Joe Bergeron style career arc from Walker, I would be good with that. 

 Bergeron was listed as a FB on 247.. Apparently the services have not ranked FBs since 2020 which may be the biggest indictment on football today. 

Anyways heres Mike Alstotts career highlights to commemorate the fullback position. 

 

 

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Posted
5 hours ago, Sir Ulrich said:

 Bergeron was listed as a FB on 247.. Apparently the services have not ranked FBs since 2020 which may be the biggest indictment on football today. 

Anyways heres Mike Alstotts career highlights to commemorate the fullback position. 

 

 

I'd be fine with a Joel Mackovica type.

Posted
23 hours ago, lilMAC25 said:

I think the last sentence is what matters. Also, Sark is probably looking for power back style who will drop his head at the goal line and push the pile.

Let's see if this dude can be our personal Scattebo in 3 years 

23 hours ago, kevwun said:

A battering ram is useful in lots of situations.  Also, running straight ahead through 5 yard holes is a good description of Johnathan Gray's high school career.

Or Kyle Porter. 

Posted
7 hours ago, Chili dog said:

Atkinson is going to destroy Matard

https://247sports.com/college/oklahoma/article/john-mateer-weighing-options-before-deciding-2026-plans-267223821/

 

NORMAN — Less than two hours after his first season at Oklahoma ended in the first round of the College Football Playoff, John Mateer was uncertain about what the future held.

The Sooners' starting quarterback said late Friday night that he does not yet know what his plans are for next season. The redshirt junior has a year of eligibility remaining and could return to Oklahoma for a second season, or he could declare for the NFL Draft in what's shaping up to be a potentially thin quarterback class.

"I really haven't thought about it yet," Mateer said after Oklahoma's 34-24 loss to Alabama. "I'm pretty sure I'll take some time and weigh all the options, and we'll see."

According to ESPN NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr., Mateer is the No. 4 quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft class, if he chooses to declare. Kiper has Mateer ranked behind Oregon's Dante Moore, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (the reigning Heisman Trophy winner) and Alabama's Ty Simpson. Like Mateer, both Moore and Simpson have eligibility remaining and have not announced any intentions one way or another (both Alabama and Oregon are still competing in the College Football Playoff).

Underclassmen have until Jan. 14 to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft, so Mateer has 3 ½ weeks before he needs to make a decision on his future—though it would likely come sooner than that if he were to declare, since the transfer portal opens Jan. 2, and Oklahoma would likely need to explore available options if Mateer turns pro.

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Posted
53 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I really wouldn't want to need a qb in this draft if Mateer is top 5.

Hahahaha. What?!? That dude is a mediocre college qb. @HenryJames called him freshman Sam Ehlinger in a text chain last night and that’s about as accurate of a description as I have read. Dude has no accuracy beyond 5 yards, doesn’t know what he’s doing half the time and can be used as a battering ran into the teeth of a defense for almost unlimited carries, irrespective of effectiveness. 

If that dude leaves for the pros and actually gets drafted, I will explode into laughter. Mark whoever does take him as a dead man walking at GM and a terrible franchise. 

That reminds me, which idiot and franchise took Joe Milton? I remember laughing about that one at the time. That dude, as bad as he sucked, was a far better prospect than John Matarded. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

That reminds me, which idiot and franchise took Joe Milton?

Drafted by the Patriots in the 6th round.

Then traded to Dallas for a 5th round pick a year later in the 2025 offseason.

Edited by Message Board User
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Posted

From Mateer's standpoint, if he stays another year, does it help him any at all on his draft stock?

Right now you are looking at Arch, Sayin, and Raiola. Then you have  Sellers, Lagway, Maiva, Holestein and Carr. 

Where would you place Mateer on this list? Does anyone think he can "improve" his stock with another year? He isn't going to completely retool his throwing motion in an offeseason going into his make or break season. He has already missed time due to a hand injury and with his play style, getting injured in a real possibility. 

If I were advising, you go and don't look back. Not worth the risk to stay. 

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Posted
From Mateer's standpoint, if he stays another year, does it help him any at all on his draft stock?
Right now you are looking at Arch, Sayin, and Raiola. Then you have  Sellers, Lagway, Maiva, Holestein and Carr. 
Where would you place Mateer on this list? Does anyone think he can "improve" his stock with another year? He isn't going to completely retool his throwing motion in an offeseason going into his make or break season. He has already missed time due to a hand injury and with his play style, getting injured in a real possibility. 
If I were advising, you go and don't look back. Not worth the risk to stay. 

If Quinn would’ve went the year before he might’ve got drafted earlier than the 7th round. And that draft was loaded. And then he looked pretty bad his last year.

Mateer does not look good at all. He either continues to look the same or get a little better. I think he has to stay. Would he even get drafted this year?
Posted

His mechanics are still horrible.  He’s not fixing that at this stage of his career.  He’s also makes terrible decisions, so he’s got that going for him.

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Posted
33 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

From Mateer's standpoint, if he stays another year, does it help him any at all on his draft stock?

Right now you are looking at Arch, Sayin, and Raiola. Then you have  Sellers, Lagway, Maiva, Holestein and Carr. 

Where would you place Mateer on this list? Does anyone think he can "improve" his stock with another year? He isn't going to completely retool his throwing motion in an offeseason going into his make or break season. He has already missed time due to a hand injury and with his play style, getting injured in a real possibility. 

If I were advising, you go and don't look back. Not worth the risk to stay. 

 

Yeah, that is the question. If he can get drafted and make more in the draft than through NIL then he should go this year. Next year, no matter how much he improves, he will not be one of the top 5 quarterbacks. 

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