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Posted
2 hours ago, troph said:

whether it is or isn't the current motivation it has been the genesis of the conflict that has remain unresolved for 50+ years. the conflict can migrate to take on a life of its own apart from the original motivations making it just that much more difficult to untangle. no doubt today its about radicalism, proxy wars through terrorism and nuclear capability, but hey if the West could solve those three, I suspect the West would do so AND strong arm their way into a deal for natural resources, say some oil and gas and some rare earths as well.

 

The West isn't even the biggest customer for Iran's oil, and using the deposing of some leftist 70+ years ago, is a lazy excuse. The Persians are great people, saddled with a corrupt and incompetent theocracy bent on spreading their version of militant Islam, and threatening the world with nuclear weapons. Lets celebrate their potential downfall, instead of indulging in political self-flagellation.

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Posted
32 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

The West isn't even the biggest customer for Iran's oil, and using the deposing of some leftist 70+ years ago, is a lazy excuse. The Persians are great people, saddled with a corrupt and incompetent theocracy bent on spreading their version of militant Islam, and threatening the world with nuclear weapons. Lets celebrate their potential downfall, instead of indulging in political self-flagellation.

Non sequitur.  In fact I was day dreaming about ladies beach not that long ago. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, troph said:

Non sequitur.  In fact I was day dreaming about ladies beach not that long ago. 

I'm admittedly a little sad no one even noticed the website name of the beach pic I posted.

 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

I'm admittedly a little sad no one even noticed the website name of the beach pic I posted.

 

I’ve always been a little sad the Middle East is a “dangerous” place to visit. Tehran from the way before times even Kabul, Afghanistan in the way before times coulda been epic. Far from a Middle East country but we are going to Morocco for my 50th. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, troph said:

I’ve always been a little sad the Middle East is a “dangerous” place to visit. Tehran from the way before times even Kabul, Afghanistan in the way before times coulda been epic. Far from a Middle East country but we are going to Morocco for my 50th. 

You would be quite safe in Jordan or Oman. Oman is gorgeous.

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Posted
1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

You would be quite safe in Jordan or Oman. Oman is gorgeous.

Our preferred gay travel company does an eygpt/cairo/nile river cruise I’d love to do. I’d have to think about Oman and Jordan if not with a group. I think they did a Jordan one a few years ago.

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Posted
21 minutes ago, troph said:

I’ve always been a little sad the Middle East is a “dangerous” place to visit. Tehran from the way before times even Kabul, Afghanistan in the way before times coulda been epic. Far from a Middle East country but we are going to Morocco for my 50th. 

My Flavor of trip But I've never seriously considered booking a trip there. Certainly would, but haven't.

GL44-IRAN-SS-PERSIAN_POWDER-1500x900.thumb.jpg.147904ae1d5920a1a55b59d375d4a302.jpgDizin-Ski-Trail-Map-2017.thumb.jpg.89fe969c492820cf4cfb22684ff7b27d.jpg

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Posted
38 minutes ago, troph said:

I’ve always been a little sad the Middle East is a “dangerous” place to visit. Tehran from the way before times even Kabul, Afghanistan in the way before times coulda been epic. Far from a Middle East country but we are going to Morocco for my 50th. 

You obviously dont know shit and should stick to London or Paris, plenty of Middle Eastern experience there anyhow

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Posted
5 minutes ago, WineGuy69 said:

You obviously dont know shit and should stick to London or Paris, plenty of Middle Eastern experience there anyhow

When did you switch from beer to wine, @HellesBier? Was it after you got crowdsourced for your blatant bigotry, white supremacy, and Islamophobic bullshit? As I recall, you said you were German-born. Maybe you oughta go back there if you're so concerned about the Moooslims taking over Europe.

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Posted
1 minute ago, bolverk said:

When did you switch from beer to wine, @HellesBier? Was it after you got crowdsourced for your blatant bigotry, white supremacy, and Islamophobic bullshit? As I recall, you said you were German-born. Maybe you oughta go back there if you're so concerned about the Moooslims taking over Europe.

This makes so much sense. I just assumed that guy got turned into paste somewhere in Ukraine.

Posted

Trump does not have the political capital to deploy troops to any country that has not directly attacked America. Even his "mass deportation" is proving to be extremely unpopular.

Posted
15 minutes ago, WineGuy69 said:

You obviously dont know shit and should stick to London or Paris, plenty of Middle Eastern experience there anyhow

 

Laughing Out Loud Lol GIF by Sealed With A GIF

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

This makes so much sense. I just assumed that guy got turned into paste somewhere in Ukraine.

A couple of nights ago, I think I said Hefeweizen but was a little high, so apologies to that other poster.

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Posted
On 6/13/2025 at 1:37 PM, Laxtonto said:

Here is a big one... 

I say this because now Israel is in visible negotiations with Iran regarding their response and now put the Iranian oil fields on the table as a viable target. 

The fact that so far this has only been explicit military/nuclear capability targets is probably more restraint than expected, and now Israel is openly dictating the terms of what is a viable response if the current leadership wants to stay in power long-term. The destruction of the Iranian refineries on Kharg Island would essentially destroy all oil/natural gas export capabilities of Iran and their only real avenue for hard currency. 

Can Iran be restrained in their response while saving enough face to keep their proxies in line? I am guessing no, and Israel torches only a portion of the infrastructure of the Khuzestan Basin at the start and tells OPEC to get Iran in line or they are going to hit Kharg Island. That is the real jewel economically for Iran and OPEC will either have to demand Iran to play ball or Iran gets economically neutered and most of the major players in the ME no longer have a financial reason to put up with their bullshit. 

 

On 6/14/2025 at 1:59 PM, Laxtonto said:

A few new things...

1. Israel has been fairly restrained "so far" vs the Iranaian economic targets. Not sure how long it stays that way.

2. Estimates are that before this all started, Iran had approximately 2,200 ballistic missiles. Of those, there are reports of 200+ that have already been launched and at least that (with estimates much higher) being destroyed in the initial round of air strikes. Being pessimistic, Iran has less than 20 sets of active large-scale strikes. Essentially Israel knows that Iran has only so many mass strikes available. 

3. The drone strikes (a la the Ukrainian truck carrier approach) has had a large enough impact that Iran has in essence, grounded truck traffic in most of the country. To me that is fucking wild. 

4. Lots of non-military adjacent politicians and their families are heading to Russia right now. Not a major surprise, but interesting to see them accept that Israel has operational control of the air and can attack all cities at will. This forces them to either live in bunkers for the foreseeable future or pull out to Russia, with many doing the latter. 

5. The wild idea of China being an impartial arbitrator in all of this ignores the simple fact that they (and India) are a major destination for Iranian crude and natural gas shipments from the fabled "ghost fleets. That being said, they actually might be a good choice because their interests align with Iran only if the Iranian refineries still exist. That would put an impetus on Iran to negotiate if their major destination of exports for hard currency is the one trying to be the middleman in this situation. 

6. The BBC reports that Israel has been "ineffective" in stopping refinement capabilities in the more hardened facilities is partially true. That being said, I expect Israel to flatten everything they can and then go from there. This is why they keep pushing for US involvement because they do t have an airframe that can deliver the knockout blow to these hardened facilities. I do wonder at some point if we see Israeli troops on the ground in a few specific sites, just to finish the job. 

7. It is staggering how the rest of the big players in the ME are just staying out of this. Not a peep out of Egypt, Saudi and Jordan are allowing fly overs. Iraq is trying to be as noncommittal as their current situation allows them. I am really surprised we have not seen more blowback from the rest of the ME. Outside of the rogue groups within Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria, causing some issues, this has been extremely localized. In truth, I am stunned....

8. Iran can still threaten to try and close the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, but with how the rest of the ME has reacted so far, I would be surprised if they allow anything more than a token disturbance to happen.. 

 

Just to add to some of your points, I think the motivations and pressure behind SA's push to maintain high oil production via OPEC over the last 6 months has become much clearer.

Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

My bad it got shot down over Blefuscu. 

Lol I honestly can't tell if you're making a joke

Oh lol NVM I just remembered

Edited by Brian Fantana
Posted
25 minutes ago, bolverk said:

A couple of nights ago, I think I said Hefeweizen but was a little high, so apologies to that other poster.

lol the difference between this freak and Hefe makes this so funny

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

lol the difference between this freak and Hefe makes this so funny

No shit. Like I said, I was up a little late and all I could recall was a type of German beer, knowing it stated with H. It came to me yesterday but didn't say anything, figuring I'd have a chance to make it right when our little goose-stepper came back.

Edited by bolverk
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Posted
1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Israeli F-35 downed over Iran’s Liliput province.

image.thumb.jpeg.6c19c39d442462337d5ac7beddae51e5.jpeg

1 hour ago, Brian Fantana said:

Uhh there's something quite wrong with that photo @956 Worldwide

@RamjetFDO and the other Photoshoppers need to get to work.  

And it looks like Israel is doing circumcisions on the wings of their aircraft.

Posted
3 hours ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

The West isn't even the biggest customer for Iran's oil, and using the deposing of some leftist 70+ years ago, is a lazy excuse. The Persians are great people, saddled with a corrupt and incompetent theocracy bent on spreading their version of militant Islam, and threatening the world with nuclear weapons. Let’s celebrate their potential downfall, instead of indulging in political self-flagellation.

Some day Iran is gonna be a great nation, that reflects the greatness of its people. When that day comes I hope I’m young enough to visit.

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Posted
27 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Some day Iran is gonna be a great nation, that reflects the greatness of its people. When that day comes I hope I’m young enough to visit.

It was once, it could be again with the right leadership. I, too, hope that day comes in my lifetime.

Posted
48 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Some day Iran is gonna be a great nation, that reflects the greatness of its people. When that day comes I hope I’m young enough to visit.

 

20 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

It was once, it could be again with the right leadership. I, too, hope that day comes in my lifetime.

I personally would happily settle for a population free of decades long caliphate and tyrannical leadership.

Yes, I too appreciate a perfect world, but I'll settle for a happy medium.

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Posted

Iran appears, like Israel to have zero interest in discussing a cease fire. Neither side of that surprises me even a little.

Spoiler

DUBAI - Iran has told mediators Qatar and Oman that it is not open to negotiating a ceasefire while it is under Israeli attack, an official briefed on the communications told Reuters on Sunday, as the two foes launched fresh attacks and raised fears of a wider conflict.

"The Iranians informed Qatari and Omani mediators that they will only pursue serious negotiations once Iran has completed its response to the Israeli pre-emptive strikes," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the conflict.

Iran has vowed to "open the gates of hell" in retaliation in what has emerged as the biggest ever confrontation between the longstanding enemies.

Iran has vowed to "open the gates of hell" in retaliation in what has emerged as the biggest ever confrontation between the longstanding enemies.

The official told Reuters media reports that Iran appealed to Oman and Qatar to engage the U.S. to broker a ceasefire and renew nuclear talks were inaccurate.

Reuters Link

Posted
26 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Iran, if it continues, will get absolutely smoked. This is old man ayatollah pride we are witnessing. And it’ll end with his downfall. 

That maybe why Iran is unwilling to back down now - same boat as Putin - a big sign of weakness and you're kaput as a leader.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

That maybe why Iran is unwilling to back down now - same boat as Putin - a big sign of weakness and you're kaput as a leader.

 

34 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Iran, if it continues, will get absolutely smoked. This is old man ayatollah pride we are witnessing. And it’ll end with his downfall. 

Agreed. However he could also be reading the tea leaves like I am. I really think Israel was all in before the first missile launched. 

Both is how I view it.

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Posted
36 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Iran, if it continues, will get absolutely smoked. This is old man ayatollah pride we are witnessing. And it’ll end with his downfall. 

Lots of unconfirmed rumors out there that he may have died in the blast on a strike on his bunker NW of Tehran. I give it 60% its true. I would go higher, but none of the regional Arab news are saying anything either way. Worth monitoring because there have already been reports of others in the government already leaving for Russia and other parts. 

Regardless, I think Israel now has the green light from the rest of the ME that he is a valid target with limited reprisals. 

 

star trek GIF

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Lots of unconfirmed rumors out there that he may have died in the blast on a strike on his bunker NW of Tehran. I give it 60% its true. I would go higher, but none of the regional Arab news are saying anything either way. Worth monitoring because there have already been reports of others in the government already leaving for Russia and other parts. 

Regardless, I think Israel now has the green light from the rest of the ME that he is a valid target with limited reprisals. 

 

star trek GIF

Can I ask where you're "hearing" or seeing these rumors? Mainly because I've not seen that anywhere, not talking shit.

Posted
Can I ask where you're "hearing" or seeing these rumors? Mainly because I've not seen that anywhere, not talking shit.

It’s all over the X. I know it’s now very credible, but it’s gaining traction.
Posted
29 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Can I ask where you're "hearing" or seeing these rumors? Mainly because I've not seen that anywhere, not talking shit.

Hopefully more reliable than the sources he relied upon in the Minnesota shooter thread. 

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Posted
5 hours ago, Chopper said:

Well, one way to attack that fucker, without bunker busters, is airdrop some light armor and sappers in there and get after it the old-fashioned way.

The way things are going, doesn't sound like there's much to stop em.

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Posted
43 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

 Worth monitoring because there have already been reports of others in the government already leaving for Russia and other parts. 

This I've heard about from various places, but not sure on the validity.  Would make perfect sense given the proximity.

43 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Regardless, I think Israel now has the green light from the rest of the ME that he is a valid target with limited reprisals. 

They absolutely do. Al-Assad going down was the last gasp at Iran having any serious allies.  Yemen is a proxy, but even they have limits on what they can do.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, one way to attack that fucker, without bunker busters, is airdrop some light armor and sappers in there and get after it the old-fashioned way.

The way things are going, doesn't sound like there's much to stop em.

Pretty sure they could figure out all of the exit/entry points on that thing and completely seal those in for starters if they didn't want people on the ground.

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Posted

What's his face just declared war on the largest US cities. Bombing Iran could be next. He's feeling angry and sorry for himself and he's lashing out. And I'll bet Netanyahu has him convinced US assistance is required for there to be a chance at ending this anytime soon. 

Posted

I guess the purpose of the tankers is to allow Israel to fly further east into Iran? We might as well start dropping bombs ourself if we’re getting this involved 

Posted

Reuters reporting Iran launched another attack this AM and is now saying they are going to flip the bird to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Of course, Iran still maintains the bullshit that they don't want bombs, just depleted Uranium for "science" I guess.

With G7 and the US air movement, I speculate the big moves by US and Israel against Iran may happen by/before mid-week. 

Spoiler

TEL AVIV/DUBAI/WASHINGTON - Iranian missiles struck Israel's Tel Aviv and the port city of Haifa before dawn on Monday, killing at least eight people and destroying homes, prompting Israel's defence minister to warn that Tehran residents would "pay the price and soon".

Iran said its parliament was preparing a bill to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), adding that Tehran remains opposed to developing weapons of mass destruction. Passing the bill could take several weeks.

...

Before leaving for the summit on Sunday, Trump was asked what he was doing to de-escalate the situation. "I hope there's going to be a deal. I think it's time for a deal," he told reporters. "Sometimes they have to fight it out."

Trump has lauded Israel's offensive while denying Iranian allegations that the U.S. has taken part and warning Tehran not to widen its retaliation to include U.S. targets.

Trump has repeatedly said Iran could end the war by agreeing to tough restrictions on its nuclear programme, which Iran says is for peaceful purposes but which Western countries and the IAEA nuclear watchdog say could be used to make an atomic bomb.

Reuters Pay Link

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Posted
8 hours ago, rpspeed said:

 

Probably wrong thread for dumb question amnesty, but anywhoo. 

 

The airspace in Israel, Iran and Syria are all closed at the moment.  The normal peoples that live in these areas have lives and commerce that should continue.  Do medical trips have to be cancelled?  Do secondary arrangements to drive to a border state and depart from elsewhere become a part of all planning?  Families that are visiting have to upend their plans and find alternate routes? 

 

It seems like a major inconvenience to me, but maybe it is just another part of life in the Middle East.

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