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Posted
2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

It is, but we are a year out from the midterms and THREE years out from the presidential election.  Polls are just a snapshot in time and Americans have goldfish memories.

I’m telling y’all, the damage Trump has done this year if irreversible. Don’t doom or be cynical. It’s over, obviously still have a ways to go, but that gives us more time to run up the score.

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Posted
21 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

I don't think things are going to improve much in a year.

Counterintuitively, as things get worse, more Americans will seek solace in their hatred of "the other" -- minorities, trans, etc.  "The more my life sucks, the more I can blame dirty mexicans and trannies for everything bad that's ever happened to me."  Never discount the shittiness, or the volume of shitty people, in this country.

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Posted
8 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Pedophile caucus shaking like the walls of Jericho

 

 

 

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Really, at this point, I don't think what's in the files matters.

First off, I think if there had been indictable/convictable evidence in there, there would have been indictments and convictions.

Second, enough good stuff has been released to create quite a cloud of suspicion.

Third, Trump is going to continue to obfuscate, by redaction, withholding because of investigation, etc.

The best thing about it is that it won't die down and Trump continues to blunder into keeping it very alive.

LBJ was right, "make the sonofabitch deny it."

Mikey seems actually shook up and pissed that “Chuck Schumer rushed it to the floor”.

It’s not going to die down, and the media knows they can get reactions out of him, and reactions make great soundbites.

There are people on the right who are wondering why the GOP keeps trying to cover for a dead child sex trafficker.

Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterintuitively, as things get worse, more Americans will seek solace in their hatred of "the other" -- minorities, trans, etc.  "The more my life sucks, the more I can blame dirty mexicans and trannies for everything bad that's ever happened to me."  Never discount the shittiness, or the volume of shitty people, in this country.

Exactly.. and shit like Springfield or a Caravan will magically emerge a few months before the midterms.

 

Hey did Trump/JD ever solve that Springfield cats/dogs issue he was so worked up about a year ago?

Edited by yoladu
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Posted
Exactly.. and shit like Springfield or a Caravan will magically emerge a few months before the midterms.
 
Hey did Trump/JD ever solve that Springfield cats/dogs issue he was so worked up about a year ago?

Vance eventually admitted they made it up and I guess everyone was just cool with that.
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Posted
1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

It is, but we are a year out from the midterms and THREE years out from the presidential election.  Polls are just a snapshot in time and Americans have goldfish memories.

Trump will cancel all the tariffs about six months before the midterm and the GOP will sweep.

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Posted
1 minute ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Trump will cancel all the "the Biden tariffs" about six months before the midterm and the GOP will sweep.

FIF what he will actually do, and it will work, because we are the stupidest country the planet has ever seen, and would still be the stupidest country even if someone started the Republic of Stupidstan and populated it solely with mouthbreathers who can't figure out how many items you can have when you go through the express checkout lane.

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Posted
Just now, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Trump will cancel all the tariffs about six months before the midterm and the GOP will sweep.

The supreme court is going to cancel them in March. We are going to be running an absolutely enormous deficit, even by government standards, between the tax cut, loss of tariffs revenue, and tariffs refund payments, but I don't have a lot of hope in the Democrats' ability to message that.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

He’s done the opposite of every campaign promise he made except in 3 areas:

Be cruel to minorities

Cut Taxes for the wealthy

Cut access to abortions

 

And those 3 platforms are enough to maintain support from at least 35% of the electorate regardless of what else he does.  Even with indisputable proof that he is a child-rapist, his support wouldn’t dip below 25%.  Because the xenophobic -greedy-“pro-life” coalition is a powerful one.

It's time to pulverize that coalition and scatter it in the wind.

Posted
22 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Some of you guys are a fucking beating.

A lot of nihilism that doesn’t understand how MAGA managed to cling on for dear life

 

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterintuitively, as things get worse, more Americans will seek solace in their hatred of "the other" -- minorities, trans, etc.  "The more my life sucks, the more I can blame dirty mexicans and trannies for everything bad that's ever happened to me."  Never discount the shittiness, or the volume of shitty people, in this country.

That will not work or save MAGA

27 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Trump will cancel all the tariffs about six months before the midterm and the GOP will sweep.

That will not salvage independents and swing voters concerned about the economy for MAGA

24 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

The supreme court is going to cancel them in March. We are going to be running an absolutely enormous deficit, even by government standards, between the tax cut, loss of tariffs revenue, and tariffs refund payments, but I don't have a lot of hope in the Democrats' ability to message that.

There is nothing the president can do to salvage public opinion on his economy

Posted
3 hours ago, tx ind said:

He’ll sign it but the files will be heavily redacted and/or they’ll claim there’s an “open investigation” so they can’t release files.

My guess is the House version was pretty broad, without much in the way of cutouts.  That is probably why he wanted the amendments - something to give the Administration some flexibility in what they released.  I just think it's funny he voted for something he didn't want to become law. 

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

A lot of nihilism that doesn’t understand how MAGA managed to cling on for dear life

 

That will not work or save MAGA

That will not salvage independents and swing voters concerned about the economy for MAGA

There is nothing the president can do to salvage public opinion on his economy

See, but the ledge-sitter’s retort is that none of it matters. TFG and the GQP are going to lead us off a cliff into destruction. There won’t be legitimate midterms next year let alone in 2028. 
 

I’m trying to be more hopeful, myself. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

See, but the ledge-sitter’s retort is that none of it matters. TFG and the GQP are going to lead us off a cliff into destruction. There won’t be legitimate midterms next year let alone in 2028. 
 

I’m trying to be more hopeful, myself. 

There is a surprising lack of knowledge on how this political system works from people that live here. 

Edited by Zonahorn
Posted
10 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

There is a surprising lack of knowledge on how this political system works from people that live here. 

There is a surprising lingering belief that the old rules and systems still exist and apply.  We are in a post-democracy order.  Not failing, FAILED.  

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

There is a surprising lack of knowledge on how this political system works from people that live here. 

What "system"?  The system is dead.  United States of Calvinball.

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Posted (edited)

Lotta people reenacting that SNL skit from after the 2016 election.  Like there’s a limit to how immune Trump is to consequences and a floor to how fucked up our country is going to get.

 

 

Edited by Snake Diggity
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Posted
2 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

I’m telling y’all, the damage Trump has done this year if irreversible. Don’t doom or be cynical. It’s over, obviously still have a ways to go, but that gives us more time to run up the score.

While I agree the damage Trump has done is irreversible, I think we disagree on the damage being discussed here. You mean his popularity? You mean his autocratic behavior? Attacking political enemies? The Graft? 

Oh, you mean you don't think Americans will vote for him again. You said that a lot last presidential election, including some wild predictions for AZ. So lets keep then in in mind when I ask...

57 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

There is a surprising lack of knowledge on how this political system works from people that live here. 

...please outline the lack of knowledge some of us have on how the political system works for people who live here (I assume you mean America). 

Also, I'm not trying to be a dick. But you're being awfully condescending about a future outcome from someone who has a mixed at best track record of predicting how the electorate is going to behave. 

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Posted

I’m also pretty sure most of us have a pretty good understanding of our political system. We happen to understand that that system is under incredible stress. Some think we’ll be ok, others think we’re fucked. But we understand our system

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Posted
3 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

Republicans are also going to lose that house seat in Tennessee next month. 

That is an R+22 District, my man.  I love your enthusiasm, but that's a big ask. An R+15 I could see, if I squint a bit, but a +22 is huge. OTOH, if they did win it, it would indicate the Dems aren't looking at a possible 10-20 seat house majority, they are looking at potentially a 75+ seat majority. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

 

There is nothing the president can do to salvage public opinion on his economy

Counterpoint: the Jedi Mind Trick is batting 1000 when it falls from Trump’s mouth to R’s ears. All he must do is to convince them is what they see, hear, and feel is not actual reality. And at that, he is bigly exceptional.

Edited by Degenerate Gardner
Posted
16 minutes ago, pacman said:

 

I'm guessing Trump doesn't like the Vindman twins.  For those who don't recall, Alexander had testified to Congress leading up to Trump's first impeachment regarding his blackmail of Zelensky.  Eugene was on the NSC and had forwarded the "perfect phone call" transcript to White House lawyers.  It is entirely possible he will be involved in the third impeachment of Trump, if the Dems can take the House in 26.  

I knew Eugene was running in 24, but didn't realized he won.  I wasn't reading much news in the election aftermath. 

Posted
8 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I'm guessing Trump doesn't like the Vindman twins.  For those who don't recall, Alexander had testified to Congress leading up to Trump's first impeachment regarding his blackmail of Zelensky.  Eugene was on the NSC and had forwarded the "perfect phone call" transcript to White House lawyers.  It is entirely possible he will be involved in the third impeachment of Trump, if the Dems can take the House in 26.  

I knew Eugene was running in 24, but didn't realized he won.  I wasn't reading much news in the election aftermath. 

you'd think they would be political poster boys. immigrants who both served in the military (for a while, at that) and are now serving again in government, trying to help make this country what it promised to be when they risked their lives to move here. 

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Posted
34 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

That is an R+22 District, my man.  I love your enthusiasm, but that's a big ask. An R+15 I could see, if I squint a bit, but a +22 is huge. OTOH, if they did win it, it would indicate the Dems aren't looking at a possible 10-20 seat house majority, they are looking at potentially a 75+ seat majority. 

@Zonahorn I just went back and redid my math and saw its R+9. I think that's still a long shot, but I'm not quite as doubtful.  Charlie Cook seems to currently have about 30+ GOP districts in play that are R+10 and down, so I see why it's now considered Likely from Safe.  

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Posted
2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

 

Reminds me of when I read Collapse by Jared Diamond and he's talking about environmental degradation in Montanan and points out that it's ridiculous to assume Anaconda was going to protect the environment and how people were shocked when they poisoned the groundwater.  That's not their job.  Of course a corporation is going to bribe a law maker if it's legal. That's like asking a hyena not to eat an injured antelope.  

 

It's the job of the body politic to set a regulatory environment that provides guardrails.  If you don't want the hyena to eat the antelope: shoot the hyena or save the antelope.  But the hyena is just behaving as hyenas behave. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

There is a surprising lingering belief that the old rules and systems still exist and apply.  We are in a post-democracy order.  Not failing, FAILED.  

The part concerning elections would require expunging federalism from the constitution. The array of constitutional amendments that would have to get passed isn't happening. Collectively 330 million Americans would have to completely lose their minds. 

1 hour ago, hookemATL said:

What "system"?  The system is dead.  United States of Calvinball.

The basic fundamental structure of the constitution, in particular, the president has no authority over elections in this country

54 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

While I agree the damage Trump has done is irreversible, I think we disagree on the damage being discussed here. You mean his popularity? You mean his autocratic behavior? Attacking political enemies? The Graft? 

Oh, you mean you don't think Americans will vote for him again. You said that a lot last presidential election, including some wild predictions for AZ. So lets keep then in in mind when I ask...

...please outline the lack of knowledge some of us have on how the political system works for people who live here (I assume you mean America). 

Also, I'm not trying to be a dick. But you're being awfully condescending about a future outcome from someone who has a mixed at best track record of predicting how the electorate is going to behave. 

I mean that he and his party are in the process of generating an unprecedented blue wave. Yeah, I was going off of special elections and assumed polling was erroneously too favorable to Trump because of red wave scum like Trafalgar. I will own and admit I was wrong, I especially didn't think independent swing voters and young men would turn to him because prices were lower in 2019. I was wrong and the reason I was wrong is because I overlooked how rosy the electorate painted Trump’s economy. 
 

What makes my predictions different this time is Trump has become tariff man and has a universally reviled economy, he and his party won’t have the saving grace of an economy people like. I would highly recommend reading the data put out by longhorn G Elliot Morris at strength in numbers.

43 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

That is an R+22 District, my man.  I love your enthusiasm, but that's a big ask. An R+15 I could see, if I squint a bit, but a +22 is huge. OTOH, if they did win it, it would indicate the Dems aren't looking at a possible 10-20 seat house majority, they are looking at potentially a 75+ seat majority. 

Republicans are putting millions of dollars in panic right now. If I had to guess the president has pissed his base off enough to stay home and give Democrats the opportunity to win. Not to mention in a D+15 environment a seat like that is reachable. Yeah, I think Democrats are looking at that kind of wave, a 10-20 seat majority would be a very narrow popular vote margin.

36 minutes ago, Degenerate Gardner said:

Counterpoint: the Jedi Mind Trick is batting 1000 when it falls from Trump’s mouth to R’s ears. All he must do is to convince them is what they see, hear, and feel is not actual reality. And at that, he is bigly exceptional.

It isn’t working, he is losing support from Republicans. You can track it by looking at his approval ratings.

if y’all don’t believe me, double check my work for yourself and look at the data from the downballot and strength in numbers 

Posted
9 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

@Zonahorn I just went back and redid my math and saw its R+9. I think that's still a long shot, but I'm not quite as doubtful.  Charlie Cook seems to currently have about 30+ GOP districts in play that are R+10 and down, so I see why it's now considered Likely from Safe.  

What do you think the current background environment is? My answer is D+15 and growing while MAGA tears itself apart.

Posted

My comments about this system weren't directed at y'all either. Y'all are educated and highly engaged. I was directing that at younger and unengaged progressives elsewhere on the internet. Sorry about that, nothing but respect for surly.



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