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Germany and France pleaded today to prepare for war. I fully expect the US to pull out of NATO within the next 7 days. 

 

BREAKING: German Foreign Minister Baerbock gave an impassioned speech to prepare Germans for war with Russia.
Germany urges European nations to start mobilizing now and not wait for the formation of the incoming government in Germany under Chancellor Merz, expected in April.

 

BREAKING: French President Macron addressed all Europeans to prepare for war with Russia.
This was broadcast live across the continent.
Europe will not accept capitulation of Ukraine to Russia under the guise of "peace negotiations."
Americans must decide whose side we are on.

 

buckle up, hopefully this is all for not. 

 

*naught

and good for them and for Ukraine. 

 

Edited by mchookem

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... and Canada will want to help their NATO allies, but will need to keep the powder dry to prevent an invasion from the U.S.  

are-we-the-baddies.gif

Yes, we are.

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I think these breaking news items are a bit overheated.  Baerbock is not discussing mobilization in the sense of putting Germany on a war footing but is encouraging them not to wait to make major decisions on defense investment.  Macron’s statements were much more measured although it is a momentous sign that he wants to discuss extending the French deterrent to other countries. 
 

We are on unprecedented ground as is, so capturing an accurate image will be important.  I do think the ground has irreversibly shifted within the Transatlantic Alliance in a way that will be difficult for us to come back from. 

I’ve been decently impressed with European diplomacy over these first six weeks, but this is a long haul.  They’ve avoided prompting any major Trump eruptions, managed to maintain maximum flexibility to have the U.S. remain engaged as much as possible, while setting the tone and table to fundamentally rebuild European security. 
 

That said there are many structural and political obstacles to translating European latent power into actual power.  The current security architecture is not built for it and any new blueprint will face the familiar challenge of European unity. 
 

There will be considerable efforts to keep the U.S. somewhat onside and not to close any doors. Europeans have been fairly adept at working with and productively channeling a U.S. that wants to use the post war order it built mostly for its own interests and ends.  The new challenge is how to engage a U.S. that is actively working against its own interests, or at least one that has radically reevaluated its own interests in a way incomprehensible to democratic and liberal counterparts. 

  • Author

other than nukes, what can russia throw a nato ??

2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

other than nukes, what can russia throw a nato ??

Borscht.

14 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I’ve been decently impressed with European diplomacy over these first six weeks, but this is a long haul.  They’ve avoided prompting any major Trump eruptions, managed to maintain maximum flexibility to have the U.S. remain engaged as much as possible, while setting the tone and table to fundamentally rebuild European security. 
 

That said there are many structural and political obstacles to translating European latent power into actual power.  The current security architecture is not built for it and any new blueprint will face the familiar challenge of European unity. 
 

There will be considerable efforts to keep the U.S. somewhat onside and not to close any doors. Europeans have been fairly adept at working with and productively channeling a U.S. that wants to use the post war order it built mostly for its own interests and ends.  The new challenge is how to engage a U.S. that is actively working against its own interests, or at least one that has radically reevaluated its own interests in a way incomprehensible to democratic and liberal counterparts. 

Yes. And he is getting frustrated.

3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

other than nukes, what can russia throw a nato ??

Migrants and destabilize other areas.

  • Author

if russia wants to unleash hell in Europe, make them date / marry russian women 

they'll be waving white flags asap 

China is just sitting back (stealing tech) and laughing. We are in for fun times. My body is ready.

13 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

other than nukes, what can russia throw a nato ??

incredible levels of disinformation that can and will destabilize a democracy

14 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

other than nukes, what can russia throw a nato ??

In addition to @InkaUtexas’ they have cyber, sabotage, and other hybrid measures. 
 

Their big military advantage is the ability to forward deploy pure mass against the very hard to defend Baltics.  They could achieve an advantage there.  To rapidly move in against overwhelmed local forces, then begin making nuclear threats as Europe tried to mobilize to get them out.  Europe has to figure out a way to extend deterrence without the U.S., and fast.  Which is why Macron is floating the idea.  One interesting option might be a European Ally only nuclear sharing program with the Baltics but that brings the risk of a hysterical Russian reaction. 
 

The introduction of another party trying to solve the extended deterrence problem in Eastern Europe introduces some real destabilizing elements that neither Trump or Putin has fully thought through. 

3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

incredible levels of disinformation that can and will destabilize a democracy

We are likely going to help the Russians with that.  We kind of already are. It’s clear we are going to try and put our thumb on the scale for national populist movements across Europe. 

13 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

In addition to @InkaUtexas’ they have cyber, sabotage, and other hybrid measures. 
 

Their big military advantage is the ability to forward deploy pure mass against the very hard to defend Baltics.  They could achieve an advantage there.  To rapidly move in against overwhelmed local forces, then begin making nuclear threats as Europe tried to mobilize to get them out.  Europe has to figure out a way to extend deterrence without the U.S., and fast.  Which is why Macron is floating the idea.  One interesting option might be a European Ally only nuclear sharing program with the Baltics but that brings the risk of a hysterical Russian reaction. 
 

The introduction of another party trying to solve the extended deterrence problem in Eastern Europe introduces some real destabilizing elements that neither Trump or Putin has fully thought through. 

The fuck did I do?

Russia has shot their wad with destabilizing propaganda. Europe has sided with Ukraine. Russia has painted itself into a corner as the enemy. Trump pulling us onto Putin’s side just gives them more to hate

Edited by Sawbonz

22 minutes ago, Captainant said:

incredible levels of disinformation that can and will destabilize a democracy

bafta television awards 2018 GIF by BAFTA

  • Author
21 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

In addition to @InkaUtexas’ they have cyber, sabotage, and other hybrid measures. 
 

Their big military advantage is the ability to forward deploy pure mass against the very hard to defend Baltics.  They could achieve an advantage there.  To rapidly move in against overwhelmed local forces, then begin making nuclear threats as Europe tried to mobilize to get them out.  Europe has to figure out a way to extend deterrence without the U.S., and fast.  Which is why Macron is floating the idea.  One interesting option might be a European Ally only nuclear sharing program with the Baltics but that brings the risk of a hysterical Russian reaction. 
 

The introduction of another party trying to solve the extended deterrence problem in Eastern Europe introduces some real destabilizing elements that neither Trump or Putin has fully thought through. 

cut their under water cables (now) and sink as many russian subs as possible in the first five mins. as many ships as possible in the first 30 mins. as many drones / rockets as possible at every air field, military or not, in the first five mins. dump everything else you can spare at every refinery and power plant, asap. all known fuel reserve sites, torch them 

dig in and no russian that crosses into your free country sees his home again 

target all known homes / hide aways of putin 

every bridge within 500 miles of free borders, gone 

every military manufacturing facility, gone 

seems like a good start 

  • Author

keep hunting all their subs until 100% eliminated. same for their naval fleet 

22 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Russia has shot their wad with destabilizing propaganda. Europe has sided with Ukraine. Russia has painted itself into a corner as the enemy. Trump pulling us onto Putin’s side just gives them more to hate

^^ This.  

And no one is still in awe of Russia's conventional military, are they?

12 minutes ago, troph said:

lighting a molotov cocktail from the flames of freedom for starters, sheesh.

Yeah. I know. Sorry for partying.

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

if russia wants to unleash hell in Europe, make them date / marry russian women 

they'll be waving white flags asap 

True, this is why Spanky hates immigrants now

39 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

cut their under water cables (now) and sink as many russian subs as possible in the first five mins. as many ships as possible in the first 30 mins. as many drones / rockets as possible at every air field, military or not, in the first five mins. dump everything else you can spare at every refinery and power plant, asap. all known fuel reserve sites, torch them 

dig in and no russian that crosses into your free country sees his home again 

target all known homes / hide aways of putin 

every bridge within 500 miles of free borders, gone 

every military manufacturing facility, gone 

seems like a good start 

That’s all? 

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2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Easy peasy.

image.gif.01e579f954b891b8beb47476d84a1a89.gif

EU after reading that

2 hours ago, David Dennison said:

But is Rodney Terry getting fired?

In two weeks.

6 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

That’s all? 

It’s always the same, it’s just a shame.

  • Popular Post
5 hours ago, mchookem said:

One of our traits that keeps getting us in trouble is the assumption that other people are not as brave and willing to fight as we are. I think that drives popular support of and government belief in the deterrent effect of bombing people. I think "shock and awe" against Iraq proved the idiocy of that.

0b25809b6e86267cdba401941b8ab999a0f78b9e

Just like it, indeed. We never learn. Bombing other people makes the survivors extremely angry. Russia expected to walk in and take over Ukraine with a show of massive force. Nope.

The French joke about them surrendering all the time is amusing, but it's just a joke. They're no more tame than the rest of Europe and the world.

Like you and most around here, I'm glad to see them not acquiesce to Trump's America as have we.

12 hours ago, HOOKEM4 said:

China is just sitting back (stealing tech) and laughing. We are in for fun times. My body is ready.

It’s incredible right? These stupid fucking MAGAts cheering on us handing the world order to china. I’m gooped and gagged over it

Yea, but think of all that cash we're making on the tariffs!

The way Europe gets American attention is refocusing their purchasing of military hardware.  The defense industry in the U.S. collapses if it is down to Israel and the US buying its shit.  I see a real chance that the US slide to irrelevance accelerates this year.  China is the big winner just by staying the course.  Taiwan will fall on their lap.

Yep.  We're handing China international supremacy on a silver platter.

Which makes me wonder if China and Russia are in bed together.  Everything Russia is making us do benefits China...

Wait, I thought we had to elect Trump to avoid World War 3???  

I guess Biden made it so bad that this was inevitable. Thanks Biden!

12 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yeah. I know. Sorry for partying.

Inka, I think you're gonna need to change your avatar.  

57 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

Yea, but think of all that cash we're making on the tariffs!

I want my $5,000!!!

56 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

The way Europe gets American attention is refocusing their purchasing of military hardware.  The defense industry in the U.S. collapses if it is down to Israel and the US buying its shit.  I see a real chance that the US slide to irrelevance accelerates this year.  China is the big winner just by staying the course.  Taiwan will fall on their lap.

The problem is that, even if they want to (which they do and european defense stocks are seeing big gains recently), their readiness and ability to manufacture at scale isn't there and will take rehauled investments, processes and -- more importantly -- time. Time that they don't have for current issues like Ukraine.

This is an example of the many examples of the negatives of an overly globalized and horizontal world. If and when relationships change, you lose autonomy. It's why it was an absolute error to outsource the packaging of chips back in the day because now the Tawain/Asian area of the world owns that unfair advantage while we are trying desperately to get caught back up and control our destiny to a degree in-house.

The flip side is, all the efficiency gains and scale you got in the peacetime years for globalization couldn't be nearly matched with the entrenchment and insularity of a more protectionist and less open system.

Edited by Vegas64

23 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Inka, I think you're gonna need to change your avatar.  

That better?

24 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Inka, I think you're gonna need to change your avatar.  

Fine. Damn avatar police.

13 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Russia has shot their wad with destabilizing propaganda. Europe has sided with Ukraine. Russia has painted itself into a corner as the enemy. Trump pulling us onto Putin’s side just gives them more to hate

I wish this were true but it is much more complicated.  There are multiple elections this year across the continent where Kremlin aligned or Kremlin open populists stand a very real chance of prevailing. They will for sure gain more ground.  Most of that is going to be driven by local level concerns and grievances but the Kremlin will exploit that.  Instability and uncertainty introduced by U.S. actions also will benefit anti-system and populist groups.  Destabilizing propaganda will be a big part of this effort. 

11 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Fine. Damn avatar police.

Dot dash dot dot

Dash dash dash

Dot dash dot dot

2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I wish this were true but it is much more complicated.  There are multiple elections this year across the continent where Kremlin aligned or Kremlin open populists stand a very real chance of prevailing. They will for sure gain more ground.  Most of that is going to be driven by local level concerns and grievances but the Kremlin will exploit that.  Instability and uncertainty introduced by U.S. actions also will benefit anti-system and populist groups.  Destabilizing propaganda will be a big part of this effort. 

Yep. We tend to look at Europe as East vs West. We overlook the South.

Want to fuck up EU? Cause havoc in the Balkans while Europe is focused on Ukraine. They cannot handle more than 1 crisis without US Support. Logistics mainly.

Couple of hundred refugees, etc.

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