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Posted
5 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

Navy not cracking the AP poll makes no sense to me. They lead the nation in rushing yards per game and are undefeated. What the hell else do they need to do for voters to acknowledge them?

Beat ND in a couple of weeks. Their schedule is an absolute joke.

Posted

I’m fine with GT being discounted and dropping a spot in the AP after beating Syracuse by 25. There’s nothing good that comes from being overhyped. Just keep winning. 

The worst ACC team beat the best SEC team so obviously the ACC is superior. 
 

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Posted
2 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

We will be top 15 after we beat Vandy this week.

it being a home game will do this team good.

Posted
4 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

It will take care of itself, but being ranked behind OU with identical records and a head-to-head double digit win is dumb, just like it was dumb in 2008.

We are debating a cripple fight victor. 

Posted
1 hour ago, FORTY NINE TO ZERO said:

third dumpster fire he has turned around?  

i know he is older, but wouldn't mind him here if sark scoots.

The 6th actually. All 6 programs he turned around had multiple losing seasons before he got there and he left all 5 (still at houston) in stellar shape

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Posted
1 hour ago, HRSchenker said:

Navy not cracking the AP poll makes no sense to me. They lead the nation in rushing yards per game and are undefeated. What the hell else do they need to do for voters to acknowledge them?

Come on. The best team they have played so far is Temple, at 5-3. Their schedule is the definition of “backloaded. 

They play:

@UNT (7-1)

@Notre Dame (5-2)

South Florida (6-2)

@Memphis (7-1)

Army (3-4)

Win 3 or more of those games and then they can whine if they’re not ranked. 

Posted
19 hours ago, HRSchenker said:

Navy not cracking the AP poll makes no sense to me. They lead the nation in rushing yards per game and are undefeated. What the hell else do they need to do for voters to acknowledge them?

Beat someone that actually matters. They are 7-0 (1 FCS), with a SOS under .400, and have a margin of victory of 9.1 points per game against that schedule.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Drew said:

How the fuck Aggy have the 14th ranked SOS?

How do we have the 13th ranked schedule? Our G5 NONCON are 2-17 against NON FCS schools. We've played two teams with a winning record and are 1-1 in those games.

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Posted
1 minute ago, HtownHorn said:

How do we have the 13th ranked schedule? Our G5 NONCON are 2-17 against NON FCS schools. We've played two teams with a winning record and are 1-1 in those games.

Simply having OSU/OU so far, and we still don't have an FCS team like they do.  Just weird they're schedule is softer than ours by more than 1 spot IMO.

Posted
2 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

How do we have the 13th ranked schedule? Our G5 NONCON are 2-17 against NON FCS schools. We've played two teams with a winning record and are 1-1 in those games.

Those two teams are #1 ranked Ohio State and #18 Oklahoma and both were away from home (road and neutral). Lots of teams haven't played anything like that in spite of our garbage home schedule.

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Posted
17 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

The 6th actually. All 6 programs he turned around had multiple losing seasons before he got there and he left all 5 (still at houston) in stellar shape

I think this is Fritz's last job. He's in his 60s, but he's a really good coach. UH likely has enough donors to get to Tech level in NIL. It seems their problems are the respective ages of Fritz and Sampson.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Drew said:

Simply having OSU/OU so far, and we still don't have an FCS team like they do.  Just weird they're schedule is softer than ours by more than 1 spot IMO.

They haven't played their FCS team yet, it's coming after Missouri, and yeah we get Vanderbilt, Georiga, Arkansas and aggy while they get Missouri, FCS, South Carolina and us.

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Posted

My model has aggy SOS at 4 right now and ending the season 25th.  Texas is 9th right now and 5th for the full season.

Both teams have played tough schedules, our is only getting harder.

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Posted

I think the pollsters are sleeping on Iowa. They're being unfairly punished for their 3 point loss in El Assico and are a victim of modest preseason expectations. If their QB doesn't get hurt they likely beat Indiana. 

They get Oregon at home in a couple of weeks and then go to USC. They are more than capable of winning both of those and winning out. 

3 minutes ago, JBJ said:

My model has aggy SOS at 4 right now and ending the season 25th.  Texas is 9th right now and 5th for the full season.

Both teams have played tough schedules, our is only getting harder.

good news is that all but one of our remaining games are at home. It's been six weeks since we last played a home game. That's nuts.

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Posted

Week 10 SP+ Top 40

Team Conference Record SP+ Rk Off. SP+ Rk Def. SP+ Rk ST SP+ Rk LW Rk Rk Chg
Indiana Big Ten 8-0 27.9 1 39.7 6 12.2 2 0.4 11 3 2
Ohio State Big Ten 7-0 27.5 2 37.8 11 10.2 1 0.0 77 1 -1
Oregon Big Ten 7-1 26.9 3 39.1 7 12.5 5 0.3 28 2 -1
Texas Tech Big 12 7-1 23.9 4 38.9 9 15.0 8 0.0 65 4 0
Texas A&M SEC 8-0 21.3 5 40.3 3 19.1 21 0.1 60 7 2
Notre Dame Indies 5-2 21.1 6 40.2 4 19.3 22 0.1 51 6 0
Utah Big 12 6-2 20.9 7 34.6 25 13.9 7 0.2 44 14 7
Oklahoma SEC 6-2 20.6 8 32.6 38 12.4 4 0.3 24 5 -3
Alabama SEC 7-1 20.1 9 37.0 15 16.9 12 0.0 71 9 0
Ole Miss SEC 7-1 19.5 10 38.6 10 19.7 26 0.5 3 12 2
Miami-FL ACC 6-1 19.5 11 36.8 16 17.8 14 0.4 13 13 2
Georgia SEC 6-1 19.2 12 37.3 13 18.7 19 0.6 1 10 -2
Texas SEC 6-2 18.1 13 30.3 53 12.3 3 0.1 57 11 -2
Missouri SEC 6-2 18.0 14 34.4 26 16.0 10 -0.4 117 8 -6
Vanderbilt SEC 7-1 17.8 15 37.4 12 20.1 32 0.5 4 15 0
USC Big Ten 5-2 17.7 16 41.3 1 23.9 50 0.4 21 16 0
Iowa Big Ten 6-2 17.6 17 31.1 47 13.8 6 0.2 39 22 5
Tennessee SEC 6-2 17.0 18 40.4 2 23.8 48 0.5 10 18 0
BYU Big 12 8-0 16.9 19 34.3 27 17.9 15 0.5 6 20 1
Penn State Big Ten 3-4 16.8 20 34.8 24 18.3 18 0.4 18 17 -3
Michigan Big Ten 6-2 16.5 21 32.0 43 15.4 9 -0.1 86 21 0
Washington Big Ten 6-2 15.3 22 35.7 19 20.1 30 -0.3 105 23 1
Cincinnati Big 12 7-1 14.3 23 35.7 20 21.8 38 0.4 16 25 2
Louisville ACC 6-1 14.0 24 33.8 32 19.8 28 0.0 66 24 0
Georgia Tech ACC 8-0 13.7 25 36.3 17 22.9 45 0.4 22 28 3
LSU SEC 5-3 13.6 26 31.0 48 17.4 13 0.0 68 19 -7
Nebraska Big Ten 6-2 13.5 27 32.1 41 18.8 20 0.1 53 26 -1
Pittsburgh ACC 6-2 13.1 28 34.1 29 21.4 37 0.5 9 31 3
Auburn SEC 4-4 12.0 29 29.1 59 16.9 11 -0.3 102 29 0
Illinois Big Ten 5-3 11.5 30 36.0 18 25.0 58 0.5 8 27 -3
Memphis AAC 7-1 11.4 31 37.2 14 26.1 65 0.4 23 30 -1
North Texas AAC 7-1 10.6 32 39.9 5 29.4 87 0.1 55 43 11
Iowa State Big 12 5-3 10.6 33 31.3 46 20.9 35 0.2 35 33 0
Florida State ACC 3-4 10.2 34 32.1 42 21.9 39 0.1 61 34 0
TCU Big 12 6-2 10.2 35 34.0 30 23.7 47 -0.1 84 32 -3
Kansas State Big 12 4-4 9.4 36 32.2 40 22.9 46 0.1 59 53 17
Maryland Big Ten 4-3 9.3 37 27.2 70 18.2 17 0.3 33 35 -2
Mississippi State SEC 4-4 9.1 38 33.0 34 24.0 51 0.1 54 36 -2
USF AAC 6-2 9.1 39 34.9 23 25.9 63 0.1 62 40 1
Florida SEC 3-4 9.1 40 28.2 63 19.5 25 0.4 15 38 -2

 

 

Dropped 2 spots with a win over the (now) 38th team.  Defense also moved to 3rd.  Special teams has been trending up, so we have that going for us at least.

Weekly prediction has us over Vanderbilt 26-24.  Who knows what we actually get out of the offense or defense this week.

 

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Posted

SP seems high on Oregon, especially on offense.  If OU is the 38th ranked offense, there's no way Oregon is 7th.  They aren't at the same level, but they also aren't that different.

Posted

That loss to Iowa State is really hurting the Hawkeyes; other than that they’ve played brilliantly and are one of the few teams to look competent against Indiana. They have a chance to prove themselves against Oregon and USC. 
 

Nebraska can’t take ugly losses against the Big 10s third tier and then seek respect. 
 

I think most pollsters aren’t tracking Mizzou’s QB issues. 

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Posted
55 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

That loss to Iowa State is really hurting the Hawkeyes; other than that they’ve played brilliantly and are one of the few teams to look competent against Indiana. They have a chance to prove themselves against Oregon and USC. 
 

Nebraska can’t take ugly losses against the Big 10s third tier and then seek respect. 
 

I think most pollsters aren’t tracking Mizzou’s QB issues. 

They should have beaten Indiana. Their QB went down and the backup was a transfer from Auburn. Imagine being so bad you can't be Jackson Arnold's backup.

Iowa is on a bye this week before playing Oregon at home. They are going to give the Ducks fits.

This is the most Ferentz team ever. Defense and special teams give them short fields and the offense just runs the clock and scores enough to win. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, The Dog said:

They should have beaten Indiana. Their QB went down and the backup was a transfer from Auburn. Imagine being so bad you can't be Jackson Arnold's backup.

Iowa is on a bye this week before playing Oregon at home. They are going to give the Ducks fits.

This is the most Ferentz team ever. Defense and special teams give them short fields and the offense just runs the clock and scores enough to win. 

It’s a good description but I think the offense is better than that. They can actually move the ball.

Wetjen is a witch on returns and a dynamic guy with the ball in his hands. 

I personally think they’re going to beat Oregon, but I don’t know if I would bet on it. 

Iowa is currently the team everyone is comparing to Texas in regard to rankings madness, saying they have a better resume. I think both deserve a late teens/early 20s rank and other programs that don’t do anything super well should be more deeply reviewed. 

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Posted
On 10/27/2025 at 11:18 AM, JBJ said:

My model has aggy SOS at 4 right now and ending the season 25th.  Texas is 9th right now and 5th for the full season.

Both teams have played tough schedules, our is only getting harder.

…and whoever plays us gets harder as well.

Posted

I posted this on another thread 

but the rankings and college playoffs 

 

will look totally different than it looked by the end of the season. 
 

A lot of teams you think is a lock will not be there. 
and teams you think are probably dead will start popping up. 
 

watch

Posted

It really is high time we jumped ahead of blOU in the rankings. We have a stronger schedule and a crushing H2H win in our favour.

Would have been much more cut-and-dry had the corrupt officials not helped Vanderbilt narrow our winning margin.

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Posted

The ACC being such a shitshow really helps  the SEC, and Notre Dame. GT living dangerously all year finally bit them. I think the ACC will only get one team, the champ, and that is wide open now. 
 

What will be tough is the Big XII, and how the committee looks at a two loss Big XII team vice a three loss SEC team. 
 

I think Texas will be in the initial top 12 when released.

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Posted
1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The ACC being such a shitshow really helps  the SEC, and Notre Dame. GT living dangerously all year finally bit them. I think the ACC will only get one team, the champ, and that is wide open now.   What will be tough is the Big XII, and how the committee looks at a two loss Big XII team vice a three loss SEC team.  I think Texas will be in the initial top 12 when released.

 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The ACC being such a shitshow really helps  the SEC, and Notre Dame. GT living dangerously all year finally bit them. I think the ACC will only get one team, the champ, and that is wide open now. 
 

What will be tough is the Big XII, and how the committee looks at a two loss Big XII team vice a three loss SEC team. 
 

I think Texas will be in the initial top 12 when released.

Beat aggy. Then put us in.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

 

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If Louisville and UVA win out, then that’s the best chance for the champ and runner up to get in. GaTech will likely get another loss to UGA. I think Miami slumped at the wrong time and have just looked mediocre. 

Posted
12 hours ago, satyanash said:

It really is high time we jumped ahead of blOU in the rankings. We have a stronger schedule and a crushing H2H win in our favour.

Would have been much more cut-and-dry had the corrupt officials not helped Vanderbilt narrow our winning margin.

I'm going to laugh when the polls come out today and we are still behind both OU and Vandy.

Posted
12 hours ago, satyanash said:

It really is high time we jumped ahead of blOU in the rankings. We have a stronger schedule and a crushing H2H win in our favour.

Would have been much more cut-and-dry had the corrupt officials not helped Vanderbilt narrow our winning margin.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the pollsters value a win in Knoxville more than a home win v vandy, even though vandy was ranked higher than Tennessee.  Playoff committee will get it right though. 

Posted

Pete Fiutak: Projecting the First College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings

Quote

#1 Ohio State

2024 Final CFP Ranking: 6
Record: 8-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 12-0
Best Win: Texas 14-7
Worst Performance: Washington 24-6

This will be about the eye test even more than the resume. The Buckeyes are playing like the best team in college football, and the committee isn’t about to stray from the general consensus.

#2 Indiana

2024 Final CFP Ranking: 8
Record: 9-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 12-0
Best Win: Oregon 30-20
Worst Performance: Iowa 20-15

Handing Oregon its only loss - and in Eugene - will be the best win by anyone in the first round of the CFP Top 25. Beating Iowa at Iowa helps, and the sheer domination of Illinois will get some to argue that IU should be No. 1.

#3 Texas A&M

2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 8-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Notre Dame 41-40
Worst Performance: Auburn 16-10

The win over Notre Dame in South Bend will carry all the weight. Beating Florida should get more credit than it will, but taking down LSU isn’t anything special now. There’s a chance, though, A&M is No. 2.

#4 Oregon

2024 Final CFP Ranking: 1
Record: 7-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Northwestern 34-14
Worst Loss: Indiana 30-20

Where’s the great win? Oregon will get the respect for being Oregon, and it’ll get love for the lone loss being to Indiana, but how much will the win at Penn State matter? (Probably more than we all think.)

#5 Alabama

2024 Final CFP Ranking: 11
Record: 7-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Georgia 24-21
Worst Loss: Florida State 31-17

Don’t be totally stunned if Alabama checks in at the 4. Wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, and LSU are better than anything Oregon has done, but that loss to Florida State will drag it down a bit for now.

#6 Georgia

2024 Final CFP Ranking: 2
Record: 7-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Ole Miss 43-35
Worst Loss: Alabama 24-21

The Bulldogs have to be behind Alabama and ahead of Ole Miss. The win over Tennessee will carry enough weight to push for the top five - depending on what the committee thinks of Oregon.

#7 Ole Miss

2024 Final CFP Ranking: 14
Record: 8-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Oklahoma 34-26
Worst Loss: Georgia 43-35

The committee would love to push up the Rebels higher, but they can’t move past Georgia, who can’t be past Alabama. Still, there's no concern. It's a good jumping off point.

#8 BYU

2024 Final CFP Ranking: 17
Record: 8-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Utah 24-21
Worst Performance: Colorado 24-21

This is where it starts to get screwy. The 8-0 record, along with a strong win over Utah, should be just enough to get this high up. There's an off chance the Cougars slip into the top seven, the committee will do a wait-and-see thing with the Texas Tech game up next.

#9 Texas Tech

2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 8-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Utah 34-10
Worst Loss: Arizona State 26-22

The wins over Utah and Houston will get the Red Raiders some consideration for being up a little higher, and the loss at ASU is more than forgivable. But for this week, they’ll sit behind the unbeaten BYU team and let Saturday’s game sort it out.

#10 Notre Dame

2024 Final CFP Ranking: 5
Record: 6-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: USC 34-24
Worst Loss: Miami 27-24

The 6-0 run will be the main rationale for the high ranking, and it was the way the Irish lost the two games to Miami and Texas A&M that will get credit. This will be a bit of an eye-test rank.

#11 Texas

2024 Final CFP Ranking: 3
Record: 7-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 8-4
Best Win: Oklahoma 23-6
Worst Loss: Florida 29-21

The guess is that the SEC tandem of Texas-Oklahoma will be boosted past the one-loss group of ACC teams. No blame whatsoever for the Ohio State loss, and losing to Florida is offset by taking out both OU and Vanderbilt.

#12 Oklahoma

2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 7-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Tennessee 33-27
Worst Loss: Texas 23-6

This is a bundle ranking with Texas. The wins over Michigan and Tennessee will mean everything in a hotel meeting room in Grapevine, Texas - this bunch will know about the John Mateer injury against the Longhorns. However, there’s a hard ceiling on where the Sooners can fit.

#13 Virginia

2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 8-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Louisville 39-27
Worst Loss: NC State 35-31

Virginia will be helped more after this weekend because of NC State’s win over Georgia Tech - it makes the loss look a little better. Beating Florida State only means something because of the Nole win over Bama, but handing Louisville its only loss might get the Cavs higher.

#14 Louisville

2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 7-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Miami 24-21
Worst Loss: Virginia 30-27

The one loss was close, the wins over Pitt, James Madison, and Miami have teeth, and there’s no reason not to be easily in the top 15.

#15 Vanderbilt

2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 7-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Missouri 17-10
Worst Loss: Texas 34-31

Style points aren’t supposed to matter or be any sort of a factor, but of course they do. The loss to Alabama was far better than the final score, and the late push against Texas is a big deal. Beating LSU holds weight in the room.

Heather Dinich: Projecting the College Football Playoff top 12

Quote

194.png&h=60&w=60

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)

Why they could be here: Ohio State has been one of the most consistently complete teams, and that season-opening win against Texas will continue to boost the Buckeyes. The Longhorns' win against Vanderbilt on Saturday helped both their playoff hopes and Ohio State's résumé. Ohio State also has road wins against Washington and Illinois, two of the Big Ten's better teams. Ohio State hasn't allowed a team more than 16 points this season. The Buckeyes entered Saturday leading the nation in total efficiency and ranked in the top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Saturday's lopsided win against a Penn State team that remains winless in conference play won't wow anyone in the room, but it will continue to enhance the Buckeyes' record strength.

Why they could be lower: Indiana has a better win -- by double digits at Oregon -- and is statistically comparable. The Hoosiers are No. 2 in total efficiency and ranked in the top six in both offensive and defensive efficiencies entering Week 10. The committee also compares common opponents, and the Hoosiers had a historically large margin of victory against Illinois, although Ohio State also won with ease.

Need to know: The Buckeyes are trending toward the No. 1 seed on Selection Day if they win the Big Ten, and that means they would earn a first-round bye and play the winner of the No. 8 vs. No. 9 first-round game. Ohio State entered Saturday with the best chance in the country to reach the playoff (95.7%).

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.


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2. Indiana Hoosiers (9-0)

Why they could be here: The Hoosiers earned their third road win of the season on Saturday at Maryland, which is now a four-loss team. Indiana has been one of the most dominant teams in the country, regardless of opponent, ranking No. 2 in ESPN's game control metric -- second only to Ohio State. Indiana's nonconference lineup, though, doesn't include an opponent as impressive as Texas. The Hoosiers beat Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State -- the latter being a struggling FCS team. IU and Ohio State are very evenly matched statistically, but Ohio State entered Saturday with the best defense in the country, holding opponents to 6.88 points per game.

Why they could be higher: Indiana still owns one of the best wins in the country, beating Oregon 30-20 on Oct. 11 -- and that remains a better win than Ohio State's win against Texas in part because it was on the road, but also because the committee will likely have Oregon ranked ahead of Texas on Tuesday. The Hoosiers entered Week 10 ranked No. 2 and with a slight edge over the No. 3 Buckeyes in ESPN's strength of record metric. The committee also compares common opponents, and IU dominated Illinois 63-10, whereas Ohio State won 34-16. The committee, though, doesn't incentivize running up the score, and any margin greater than three touchdowns or so isn't earning any bonus points in the room.

Need to know: If the Hoosiers run the table and play for the Big Ten championship, they should be a CFP lock. Even if they lose in the title game, the committee will likely keep them in contention for a top-four finish and first-round bye.

Toughest remaining game: There isn't one. Penn State, Wisconsin and Purdue each have at least five losses, and the Hoosiers have at least a 77% chance to win each of those games.


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3. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)

Why they could be here: If Georgia is a top-five team on Tuesday night -- and Notre Dame is behind it -- Alabama's best win would trump Texas A&M's top win against the Irish. Both were close games on the road. The bigger difference is that the Tide also earned wins against Vanderbilt, Mizzou and Tennessee, which should all be CFP top 25 teams on Tuesday night. Alabama has four consecutive wins -- from late September to mid-October -- against teams the committee holds in high regard, including two on the road. Alabama has been a slightly better defensive team against more elite competition, ranking No. 15 in defensive efficiency, while the Aggies are No. 18. Overall, Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in total efficiency, another small edge over No. 10 Texas A&M.

Why they could be lower: Some committee members could continue to penalize Alabama for its season-opening loss to Florida State, which looks worse each week. Plus, the Aggies haven't lost and are No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric.

Need to know: So what's the difference between earning the No. 3 or the No. 4 seed? The No. 3 seed faces the winner of the No. 11 vs. No. 6 first-round game. The No. 4 seed plays the winner of the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. The Sooners will likely be the last CFP top 25 team Alabama faces during the regular season.


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4. Texas A&M Aggies (8-0)

Why they could be here: The undefeated Aggies have one of the best nonconference wins in the country, a 41-40 win at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. The win against LSU is now ... interesting? The Aggies earned a resounding 49-25 win in Baton Rouge, but LSU is a three-loss team that fired its head coach and athletic director. How the committee views LSU will be a factor in how it regards A&M's résumé. In addition to Notre Dame, Texas A&M's wins against teams above .500 came versus LSU and Mississippi State. Both Texas A&M and Alabama have three road wins each, but two of Bama's (Georgia and Missouri) came against ranked teams.

Why they could be higher: The Aggies are undefeated and No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric, and Alabama lost to a struggling Florida State team.

Need to know: The Aggies and Tide don't play each other during the regular season but are the most likely matchup in the SEC championship game, according to ESPN Analytics. Texas A&M also doesn't play Georgia during the regular season.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas.


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5. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)

Why they could be here: The Bulldogs escaped a feisty Florida team in Jacksonville on Saturday to remain one of the committee's top one-loss contenders. The head-to-head SEC results, though, will keep them sandwiched between Alabama and Ole Miss. Georgia's only loss was by three points at home to the Tide on Sept. 27, and its best win was on Oct. 18 at home against Ole Miss. An overtime win at Tennessee will also help separate Georgia from other one-loss contenders ranked lower. And for as many questions as there have been about Georgia's defense, Florida converted just 2 of 11 third downs and was 0-for-2 on fourth down.

Why they could be lower: It would be difficult for the committee to justify dropping Georgia below Ole Miss, which it beat, as long as their records are comparable. If there is a knock on the Bulldogs, though, it has been the defense, which was No. 36 in efficiency entering Saturday.

Need to know: Georgia entered Saturday with the third-best chance to reach the SEC championship game behind Alabama and Texas A&M, according to ESPN Analytics.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns beat Vanderbilt on Saturday and have now won four straight games to keep their playoff hopes alive. They'll have a bye week to prepare for the trip to Athens.


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6. Ole Miss Rebels (8-1)

Why they could be here: The Rebels struggled to contain LaNorris Sellers and South Carolina early, but the defense swarmed Sellers in the fourth quarter and Ole Miss pulled away to likely remain one of the committee's top one-loss teams. Ole Miss will still be ranked behind Georgia because of the head-to-head road loss to the Bulldogs on Oct. 18. The Rebels entered Saturday ranked No. 7 in ESPN's strength of record metric. Their best win was Oct. 25 at Oklahoma, and the lopsided win against two-loss Tulane is still respectable. Part of the committee's evaluation of Ole Miss will depend on how much it values a win against three-loss LSU, which has since fired its coach and athletic director.

Why they could be lower: BYU is undefeated and entered Week 10 ranked No. 9 in total efficiency; Ole Miss was No. 21. BYU was also No. 5 in strength of record, a slight edge over No. 7 Ole Miss.

Need to know: Ole Miss entered November with a three-game stretch at home against unranked opponents, including The Citadel in its next game. The Rebels' best opportunities to impress the selection committee are behind them, but as long as they don't stumble, it shouldn't impact their playoff standing. A bad loss, though, could call the Rebels' résumé into question.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Egg Bowl isn't a gimme, especially as the Bulldogs have crept above .500. A loss could mean a first-round road trip instead of a home game for Ole Miss -- or getting bumped out of the bracket entirely.


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7. BYU Cougars (8-0)

Why they could be here: The Cougars had a bye week but will be the committee's lone undefeated Big 12 team to consider. BYU's back-to-back wins against Utah and Iowa State are collectively better than anything undefeated Georgia Tech has on its résumé. Heading into Saturday, BYU was ranked No. 5 in ESPN's strength of record metric, ahead of No. 8 Georgia Tech. The more glaring discrepancy is in strength of schedule, where BYU was No. 49 and Georgia Tech was No. 83. Statistically, BYU and Georgia Tech have been extremely even in most major categories, but the Cougars have done it against better competition.

Why they could be lower: The committee will discuss an FCS win against Portland State, and three wins against teams with losing records -- Stanford, Colorado and West Virginia.

Need to know: BYU and Texas Tech are the most likely matchup in the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but they will first play each other in Lubbock, Texas, next week. If BYU reaches the Big 12 title game undefeated, it will almost certainly earn an at-large bid as a one-loss runner-up if it doesn't win the title. If BYU loses to Texas Tech during the regular season but beats it in the Big 12 title game, it's also still possible they both get in if it's a close game. Even with a second loss, the Red Raiders could claim a regular-season win against the Big 12 champs, which would be a huge boost to their résumé in the committee meeting room.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. BYU has a week to prepare, but the Red Raiders are coming off a road win at Kansas State.


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8. Oregon Ducks (7-1)

Why they could be here: The Ducks will be one of the committee's most interesting teams to debate because they have played well, but their best win is ... Sept. 13 at Northwestern -- the only team they've beaten with a winning record. Entering Saturday, Oregon's opponents had a winning percentage of 47.9%, ranked No. 101 in the country. The Ducks also have an FCS win against Montana State. The committee will likely still respect the Sept. 27 win at Penn State because the Nittany Lions had head coach James Franklin, it was a hostile crowd environment, and the team had yet to unravel. It still wasn't a win against a playoff contender, though. Oregon lost to Indiana, the best team it has played, by double digits at home.

Why they could be higher: With the exception of the double-overtime win at Penn State, Oregon has won in convincing fashion all season. The Ducks entered Saturday ranked No. 7 in scoring defense (13.5 points per game) and No. 6 in points per game (41.25). The Ducks also have one of the best losses in the country, as it could be to the committee's No. 2 team, Indiana.

Need to know: Oregon has more chances to impress the selection committee in November, with games against Iowa, USC and at Washington looming -- all teams with winning records and potentially ranked in the CFP top 25. The committee doesn't project ahead, though, and Oregon had a Week 10 bye, so this is the résumé it will be judged by on Tuesday.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. The 6-2 Huskies have lost only to Ohio State and on the road against Michigan.


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9. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1)

Why they could be here: The Red Raiders are clearly a talented team -- and might be better than undefeated BYU -- but the loss at Arizona State will probably keep them from climbing much higher in the initial ranking. They don't have much to compensate for it, aside from the 34-10 win at Utah on Sept. 20. Saturday's win at Kansas State, though, was Texas Tech's third Big 12 road win. The committee will respect the Oct. 4 win at Houston, but it didn't help that the Cougars (7-2) lost to West Virginia on Saturday.

Why they could be lower: The brutal nonconference lineup against FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State doesn't include any teams with winning records. The Red Raiders entered Saturday No. 14 in ESPN's strength of record metric, and No. 60 in strength of schedule.

Need to know: If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it's a CFP lock. The problem is that if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, they're going to need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU next Saturday but lose to the Cougars in the Big 12 championship game, they will still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. They would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 vs. BYU. The Cougars are the only remaining opponent with a winning record, as Texas Tech ends the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).


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10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2)

Why they could be here: The Irish have now won six straight after their 0-2 start and made a case for a top-10 ranking -- with the help of Miami, Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt all possibly falling out. The head-to-head loss to Miami in the season opener will be a discussion point, but it's one of several tiebreakers, and if the committee feels strongly that Notre Dame is now the better team, it can rank it as such. The Irish got off to a slow start against Boston College on Saturday but eventually pulled away to avoid elimination against a now 1-8 team. Notre Dame's best win is against USC, and it could have another ranked opponent on its schedule if Pitt works its way into the CFP top 25 on Tuesday. Notre Dame travels to Pitt on Nov. 15. Notre Dame's improved defense and strong running game could help boost the Irish into a safe ranking spot when it matters the most.

Why they could be lower: There could be committee members who still believe strongly that Miami's head-to-head win should keep the Canes ranked above the Irish while their records remain comparable.

Need to know: Notre Dame has at least a 75% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. If there's a trap game remaining, this is it, as Pitt is an ACC team that has won five straight games. The Panthers also have a bye week to prepare for this game.


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11. Texas Longhorns (7-2)

Why they could be here: With their win against Vanderbilt -- and Georgia Tech's loss at NC State -- the Longhorns are back in the conversation. Texas now has two wins against what should be CFP top 25 teams in Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, and the season-opening loss at Ohio State isn't going to hurt the Longhorns in the eyes of the committee. The Oct. 4 loss at Florida is bad, but unlike Georgia Tech, the Longhorns have statement wins to help offset it. Texas has won four straight games since its loss to the Gators, and it has the head-to-head win against rival Oklahoma. That looks even better after the Sooners beat Tennessee on the road Saturday. Texas entered Week 10 ranked No. 13 in both ESPN's strength of record and strength of schedule metrics.

Why they could be lower: The selection committee could also consider dropping Georgia Tech or Miami here, or adding Virginia into the mix. Some committee members could also give more credit to Oklahoma's road win over Tennessee than to the Longhorns' home win against Vandy. And much like the Miami-Notre Dame scenario, there could be people in the room who give less weight to the head-to-head result than other factors.

Need to know: If the playoff were today, Texas would be bumped out to make room for the ACC champion, which is now projected to be Virginia, which is ranked outside of the committee's projected top 12. Because both the ACC champion and the Group of 5 champion are outside of the top 12, the teams ranked No. 11 and No. 12 would both get bumped out.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Texas A&M. It's certainly not going to be easy to win at Georgia on Nov. 15, but the Longhorns will have a bye week to prepare for it. A top-four rival on a Friday night in the regular-season finale will be the second-best opponent Texas faces all season, the lone exception being its season opener against Ohio State.


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12. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2)

Why they could be here: The Sooners' two losses were to Texas and Ole Miss, both respectable losses to CFP top 25 teams, and their win at Tennessee on Saturday was a much-needed boost to their résumé. The Week 2 win against Michigan, though, is one of the nation's better nonconference wins, and the Wolverines are 7-2 after having won three straight games. OU also entered Saturday ranked No. 22 in strength of schedule and No. 16 in total efficiency. The head-to-head loss, though, could keep it behind rival Texas.

Why they could be higher: The win at Tennessee was significant, giving the Sooners a key SEC road win against a ranked opponent. The committee would also consider the hand injury to John Mateer in the Texas game, as he made his return 17 days after having hand surgery and threw three interceptions. The question is if it would be enough of a factor along with the Sooners' résumé to look past the head-to-head result.

Need to know: If the playoff were today, Oklahoma would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team -- Memphis as the projected American champion -- would be ranked outside the top 12.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners have a bye week to prepare for it but will be in a must-win situation in Tuscaloosa.

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 

What will be tough is the Big XII, and how the committee looks at a two loss Big XII team vice a three loss SEC team. 

Everyone (national media in particular) assuming at this point Texas has to win out in order to make the playoff and, yeah, may not be the case.    I think a 9-3 Texas team will have a really strong argument.   Particularly if OSU wins out.  Because if it does come down to Texas and a 2 loss Big 12 team that didn't schedule anyone out of conference, why in the world are teams scheduling tough OOC (which the networks desperately need to happen).  Obviously a lot of it will depend how other games shake out (and how strong the OU and Vandy wins hold up).  We actually need Vandy to only win 2 of their next 3 particularly after the ref manufactured comeback.

Edited by Skipper
Posted
1 minute ago, Skipper said:

Everyone (national media in particular) assuming at this point Texas has to win out in order to make the playoff and, yeah, may not be the case.    I think a 9-3 Texas team will have a really strong argument.   Particularly if OSU wins out.  Because if it does come down to Texas and a 2 loss Big 12 team that didn't schedule anyone out of conference, why in the world are teams scheduling tough preseason (which the networks desperately need to happen).  Obviously a lot of it will depend how other games shake out (and how strong the OU and Vandy wins hold up).  We actually need Vandy to only win 2 of their next 3 particularly after the ref manufactured comeback.

Would rather win out. 

  • Like 1
Posted
Just now, immamac said:

Would rather win out. 

Well yeah, I agree.  But if we do end up losing the UGA, the season isn't really "over" which will probably be the initial reaction if that were to happen.   UGA is definitely beatable.   Hopefully we can get somewhat healthy with the bye.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Everyone (national media in particular) assuming at this point Texas has to win out in order to make the playoff and, yeah, may not be the case.    I think a 9-3 Texas team will have a really strong argument.   Particularly if OSU wins out.  Because if it does come down to Texas and a 2 loss Big 12 team that didn't schedule anyone out of conference, why in the world are teams scheduling tough OOC (which the networks desperately need to happen).  Obviously a lot of it will depend how other games shake out (and how strong the OU and Vandy wins hold up).  We actually need Vandy to only win 2 of their next 3 particularly after the ref manufactured comeback.

I think seeing where we are in terms of the first rankings will tell us whether we are being punished for Ohio state or if other teams are dinged for a better record with worse OOC schedules.  

Posted

If the sec is working to get a 5th spot, their current choices are Texas, ou, and vandy.  Texas has the head to head over both and the big tv draw but vandy has the easiest path to winning out and the plucky underdog story.  

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I think seeing where we are in terms of the first rankings will tell us whether we are being punished for Ohio state or if other teams are dinged for a better record with worse OOC schedules.  

I don’t think it will only be getting punished for tOSU if you are down there. Style points will play a role and the OT games against UK and MSU will be in people’s minds. And Vandy clawing back in the game. 

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