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Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

My point is that others above #10 can drop.  Just because 2 teams ranked below #12 will take top 12 positions doesn't mean our #11 ranking leaves us out.  You can't predict what 2-1 will do for us, because you don't know what's going to happen to the rest of the top 10.

11 in the last in at best. If the ACC rises fine, Texas still has to rise one if the ACC lands at 10 or 11. The net effect is the same. ACC gets one no matter what, they aren’t going to see a meteoric rise and if they do Texas still has to rise one even with one more loss in either scenario. 

Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

image.thumb.jpeg.744402aa3b78eedba29a641ca023c0fd.jpeg

 

So easy for people to forget... 

OU plays Bama still

ND plays Pitt

Oregon plays Iowa, USC, Washington

OSU/Michigan

Tenn/Vandy 

 

More than likely 6 of the top 25 wont be there in 2 weeks and their is a good change 2 or 3 of the teams in front of Texas (not counting GA) will be gone. 

 

Give it a few weeks.

 

 

 

No one disagrees with any of these but add Texas might drop one. It’s pretty clear 10-2 we are in. 9-3 and it’s gonna be a wild ride as Texas drops and rises again or rises and then drops. 9-3 is possible but no where near a clear way in.
 

and if Texas drops one more you gotta start looking behind Texas for more losses like OU, Vandy, etc.

Put it this way, I would not bet we are in at 9-3. 

Edited by scramblyn
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Posted
2 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

11 in the last in at best. If the ACC rises fine, Texas still has to rise one if the ACC lands at 10 or 11. The net effect is the same. ACC gets one no matter what, they aren’t going to see a meteoric rise and if they do Texas still has to rise one even with one more loss in either scenario. 

I seriously don't understand what you're saying.  Do you think we have no chance of getting into the top 12 if we go 2-1 with a win over Arky and one of UGA/A&M?

Posted
Would you rather win SEC or natty? I could give a fuck about a conference championship if we win a natty. 

If. Last years team accomplished neither with a better team. Let start with just beating UGA in a couple weeks.
Posted

Probably mentioned.

Interesting stat from college radio today. The sec schools that the Aggies have played are a combined 6-20 in conference play and all have a losing conference record. 4 of those teams have fired their coach. Paper tiger? Maybe, maybe not.

They missed Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, ole miss, and if you want to throw it in, vandy.

It’s the perfect storm for them to finally do something.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I seriously don't understand what you're saying.  Do you think we have no chance of getting into the top 12 if we go 2-1 with a win over Arky and one of UGA/A&M?

Yes but it’s quite complicated. We lose one we drop, we win the other we rise. No one is factoring the drop with our rise. We need multiple in front to drop (because we have to absorb one loss), you need multiple behind you not to rise, except one ACC team they are in no matter what so a rising ACC champ is irrelevant. 

assume we lose to Georgia in a good game, I bet Texas drops 2-3 and OU if they win are above us probably 1-2 more teams. Now we need as many as 4 to drop for Texas to get in if we go 2-0 to end the season. Or the committee to simply leap frog a 3 loss Texas team above 2-3 teams just because they beat A&M. That’s asking a lot.

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
Just now, scramblyn said:

Yes but it’s quite complicated. We lose one we drop, we win the other we rise. No one is factoring the drop with our rise. We need multiple in front to drop (because we have to absorb one loss), you need multiple behind you not to rise, except one ACC team they are in no matter what so a rising ACC champ is irrelevant. 

I'm quite confident we aren't going to be the only top 12 teams with a loss in the upcoming weeks.  I'm happy to watch it play out.  I am pretty confident the SEC will get 5 teams in the CFP, and if they don't, oh well, don't lose to Florida.

Posted
2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I seriously don't understand what you're saying.  Do you think we have no chance of getting into the top 12 if we go 2-1 with a win over Arky and one of UGA/A&M?

There’s a chance but it’s not at all a good one.A 9-3 Texas is likely around 11-12 in the rankings. If the ACC and best G5 champ are behind you, Texas gets bumped. 
 

Put it this way: You have, right now, a bit better than even odds to make the CFP. Those odds factor in 10-2 pathways. If you take away the 10-2 pathways, the odds slump well below .500.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, markstanco said:

Probably mentioned.

Interesting stat from college radio today. The sec schools that the Aggies have played are a combined 6-20 in conference play and all have a losing conference record. 4 of those teams have fired their coach. Paper tiger? Maybe, maybe not.

They missed Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, ole miss, and if you want to throw it in, vandy.

It’s the perfect storm for them to finally do something.

Office aggy predictably expressed his undying love for the 8 game conference schedule today. “Another SEC game takes a check away from a small school that really needs the money.”

I could stay up all night and couldn’t come up with a more aggy statement than that. 

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Posted

So y'all know how the committee will weigh a split against #5 and #3 (current)?  OK.  I know what my brain tells me.  It tells me we're a damn good team.  Other top 10 teams beating up on spares isn't necessarily telling.

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Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

I'm quite confident we aren't going to be the only top 12 teams with a loss in the upcoming weeks.  I'm happy to watch it play out.  I am pretty confident the SEC will get 5 teams in the CFP, and if they don't, oh well, don't lose to Florida.

I agree mayhem will happen to an extent, but that includes Texas dropping again before rising. 3 losses was always going to be a tough admission.  And even if the sec gets 5 we can’t sleep on OU they have 2 losses and we have 3? Fuck that noise.  We probably need Big 12 to eat their own, ND to lose, OU to lose, if Iowa or USC beat Oregon they can be a problem rising after a Texas loss. UVA or Georgia tech rising if it’s only one so what. Point is we probably needed to be 8-9 now to absorb a loss. More k think about it all the mayhem that we would need as a 3 loss team, yeah no way I’d count on it.

we need to finish 10-2. That’s where I think this goes. 

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Posted
32 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

BYU TT Saturday will pretty much push Texas into the 11 spot next week... 

 

I don’t see both of them making the playoff. I think it’s highly likely they rematch in the Big XII CCG, and the loser of that game will have at least 2 losses and be out. 

Posted
1 minute ago, scramblyn said:

I agree mayhem will happen to an extent, but that includes Texas dropping again before rising.

WTF is with your obsession with "dropping before rising"?  That's bizarre.  The committee will rank on a week to week basis, and if (for instance) we lose to UGA and drop a bit, but beat Arky and then A&M, there is no reason to believe we will be shut out of the top 12.  Quite the opposite, in all likelihood.  Lose on the LAST weekend and you're probably fucked.

Posted
9 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There’s a chance but it’s not at all a good one.A 9-3 Texas is likely around 11-12 in the rankings. If the ACC and best G5 champ are behind you, Texas gets bumped. 
 

Put it this way: You have, right now, a bit better than even odds to make the CFP. Those odds factor in 10-2 pathways. If you take away the 10-2 pathways, the odds slump well below .500.

Pretty much and the variations with a 9-3 record has to include all the what ifs above and below Texas and that’s a pretty complicated set of variables. 

Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

WTF is with your obsession with "dropping before rising"?  That's bizarre.  The committee will rank on a week to week basis, and if (for instance) we lose to UGA and drop a bit, but beat Arky and then A&M, there is no reason to believe we will be shut out of the top 12.  Quite the opposite, in all likelihood.  Lose on the LAST weekend and you're probably fucked.

It’s not hard to comprehend. If we lose to Georgia we will drop from 11 to 13, 14 maybe 15. Lose by 10 handedly with Georgia taking a knee it could be 16. How are you rising from 14 to 10 in the last two weeks? 

Texas then has 3 losses look how many teams in the top 25 have 3 losses right now - one. now more will as time goes by but Texas isn’t staying at 11 in two weeks if they lose to Georgia, I’d bet 3-5 spot drop at least.

 

image.thumb.png.8f1df6bc35a565ed9d023ea8a6b9c565.png

Edited by scramblyn
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Posted
2 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

It’s not hard to comprehend. If we lose to Georgia we will drop from 11 to 13, 14 maybe 15. Lose by 10 handedly with Georgia taking a knee it could be 16. How are you rising from 14 to 10 in the last two weeks? 

By beating a top 3 team while others lose?  Seems pretty straightforward.

Posted
2 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

It’s not hard to comprehend. If we lose to Georgia we will drop from 11 to 13, 14 maybe 15. Lose by 10 handedly with Georgia taking a knee it could be 16. How are you rising from 14 to 10 in the last two weeks? 

Because you're not accounting for the teams in the top 10 accruing additional losses?  Our strength of schedule alone will rise, no question.  Our record against schedule will probably rise.  These things matter.

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Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Because you're not accounting for the teams in the top 10 accruing additional losses?  Our strength of schedule alone will rise, no question.  Our record against schedule will probably rise.  These things matter.

Oh I am accounting for it. 9-3 is going to be really difficult to make it.  And most in the top 10 who lose aren’t going to fall below a Texas team that also lost.  
 

anyway I don’t need to keep arguing. 9-3 is a fools bet imo.  Could win that bet and Texas gets in but I wouldn’t count on it. But if it happens it will be a helluva November to watch the mayhem. So I’ll be here for it. 

Posted

I would guess our closing strength of schedule is the hardest in the country.  Can anyone name a tougher upcoming schedule?

That matters.  Now, if you want to say that teams currently above us might be less likely to suffer a loss, I wouldn't argue the point.  I also would argue that their loss will be penalized more than ours.

We're on the hairy edge, but a loss doesn't necessarily eliminate us.

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Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

I would guess our closing strength of schedule is the hardest in the country.  Can anyone name a tougher upcoming schedule?

That matters.  Now, if you want to say that teams currently above us might be less likely to suffer a loss, I wouldn't argue the point.  I also would argue that their loss will be penalized more than ours.

We're on the hairy edge, but a loss doesn't necessarily eliminate us.

I think we will stuff the aggies in a locker when they come to Austin. I really think the whole season is going to hinge on beating UGA in Atlanta. Fingers crossed. 

Posted
19 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

Pretty much and the variations with a 9-3 record has to include all the what ifs above and below Texas and that’s a pretty complicated set of variables. 

The thing that needs ryto to be taken into account is that SEC and BIG teams this year aren’t playing for top 12. They’re playing for top 10. 

Posted
1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The thing that needs ryto to be taken into account is that SEC and BIG teams this year aren’t playing for top 12. They’re playing for top 10. 

Yeah, the top 10 that excludes one of the 4 major conferences.

Posted (edited)

If we go 2-1, there are 5 guaranteed losses above us, and it is likely going to be more than that.  Y'all chill.

Edited by JBJ
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Sgt Hulk said:

First team out. Texas.  But there’s a whole thread on why 9-3 gets us in lol 

Hey dickhead- it’s almost like other things will happen around the country. 
we are in at 9-3 with either a domer loss, or only 1 big 12 team getting in. The good news is we are ahead of OU, Vandy and everyone else we should be ahead of. 
I would also say 9-3 Texas absolutely goes before 10-2 Ole Miss. 

Your inability to apply logic to this situation is almost Helo level stupid. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Posted
3 minutes ago, JBJ said:

If we go 2-1, there are 5 guaranteed losses above us, and it is likely going to be more than that.  Y'all chill.

And possibly 2-3 that rise above us in the interim. No one is pissing their pants.  it’s all possible but it’s a lot. 

Posted
16 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I would guess our closing strength of schedule is the hardest in the country.  Can anyone name a tougher upcoming schedule?

That matters.  Now, if you want to say that teams currently above us might be less likely to suffer a loss, I wouldn't argue the point.  I also would argue that their loss will be penalized more than ours.

We're on the hairy edge, but a loss doesn't necessarily eliminate us.

Which is exactly why I said we were probably 65% to make it at 9-3 and why espn and the other predictors have us at 67%. 

Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Hey dickhead- it’s almost like other things will happen around the country. 
we are in at 9-3 with either a domer loss, or only 2 big 12 team getting in. The good news is we are ahead of OU, Vandy and everyone else we should be ahead of. 
I would also say 9-3 Texas absolutely goes before 10-2 Ole Miss. 

Your inability to apply logic to this situation is almost Helo level stupid. 

Call me names all you want cock sucker 

 

Ifs and butts are candy and nuts fuck your own face always cry baby. 
 

9-3 Texas is watching the playoffs 

OU losing weakens our win over them. Same with Vandy.  Yall still think this were Texas shit matters.   We’ve looked like smashed asshole all year old and haven’t played a single complete game. Even OU was close until a punt return.

 

but yeah ole miss and 10-2 will be left in favor of us lol 

Edited by Sgt Hulk
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Posted
34 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Office aggy predictably expressed his undying love for the 8 game conference schedule today. “Another SEC game takes a check away from a small school that really needs the money.”

I could stay up all night and couldn’t come up with a more aggy statement than that. 

Yea it takes a way one of their three guaranteed wins and now that have to play a power four in non conference, they will continue to schedule more middle to lower tier Power fours like they have Arizona State and Louisville  on their schedule.  Purdue or Northwestern will probably show up down the road for them too.   But they checked the box!   

Posted

I think the team people are ignoring that could completely fall out of the top 12 is Ole Miss.   They still have to play Florida and MSU.    This Ole Miss team is still a team that only beat Arky by 6 and Kentucky by 7 and had to comeback from behind to beat fricken Washington State at HOME.  A lot of credit is be given to them for beating OU on the road, a now dog crap LSU and and seven point loss to UGA.    It wouldn’t shock me if they get upset by Florida or MSU.  If you hear the talking heads, you’d think they are stomping everyone.   

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Posted
Just now, Nueces River Rat said:

I think the team people are ignoring that could completely fall out of the top 12 is Ole Miss.   They still have to play Florida and MSU.    This Ole Miss team is still a team that only beat Arky by 6 and Kentucky by 7 and had to comeback from behind to beat fricken Washington State at HOME.  A lot of credit is be given to them for beating OU on the road, a now dog crap LSU and and seven point loss to UGA.    It wouldn’t shock me if they get upset by Florida or MSU.  If you hear the talking heads, you’d think they are stomping everyone.   

How is that any different than us beating Kentucky and ms state in OT and not dominating our cupcakes?  

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said:

I think the team people are ignoring that could completely fall out of the top 12 is Ole Miss.   They still have to play Florida and MSU.    This Ole Miss team is still a team that only beat Arky by 6 and Kentucky by 7 and had to comeback from behind to beat fricken Washington State at HOME.  A lot of credit is be given to them for beating OU on the road, a now dog crap LSU and and seven point loss to UGA.    It wouldn’t shock me if they get upset by Florida or MSU.  If you hear the talking heads, you’d think they are stomping everyone.   

They are high enough they would probably have to drop both to fall out of the playoffs imo

i think BYU, tech, Oregon and ND are the more likely to drop out with only one loss. Everyone ahead of them is pretty entrenched.

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
21 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Which is exactly why I said we were probably 65% to make it at 9-3 and why espn and the other predictors have us at 67%. 

Up to 72% actually 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Sgt Hulk said:

There’s one thing this board is good at doing it’s predicting outcomes so I’m confident we will be in the playoffs because yall usually nail everything else 

You bang this drum with every other post lately like it means anything. Every fan message board on the planet makes dumb predictions. Welcome to internet.

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