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2018 midterm gameday thread


Zonahorn

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9 minutes ago, EMAWesome said:

Democrats gain a small majority in the house which will result in nothing getting done other than starting 147,243 investigations into Trump.  Republicans increase control in the Senate which can still make federal appointments and will vote not to convict Trump on anything that comes out of the 147,243 investigations into Trump that the House starts.  Mexican standoff until 2020.  Both sides can claim victory in public while behind the scenes they scratch their heads trying to figure out why their gains weren't more substantial.

Mueller and Justice gonna put a big thumb on that scale.  Alter your math accordingly.

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2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Michigan and Pennsylvania went Democrat tonight. Wisconsin may go in both major races. Iowa(!) is basically a purple state tonight. That is an EC win right there with no other changes.

Who is the 2020 candidate?

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7 minutes ago, swraith said:

2016 proved popular vote doesn’t matter. Electoral college count is what matters in Presidential race.

Florida still looking very red. TX looking very red.

Dems have to find a path that leads them to EC victory in 2020 vs Trump. It’s not clear that tonight has revealed that strategy.
 

Uh, they have done pretty damn well in WI, MI, and PA, the three states that cost them 2016 by less than 100k votes collectively and still lean D at their core. Flip them and it's a D President. IA, NC, FL, and OH will all be in play as well, even though they are GOP leans at this point (IA debatable if this climate holds, Ds cleaning up there tonight). Rs need a lot more to go right for them relative to the law of averages than Ds do.

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1 minute ago, NameWithHeld said:

I thought straight ticket voting was bad and Abbott just signed a  law/order getting rid of it in Texas?

I've never been against it. I don't think it's a big deal. People who would vote straight are going to do it anyways.

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1 minute ago, Johnny Sack said:

Dems won the house by less than predicted. GOP won senate by more. And governors by more than we thought. 

Current forecast is a Democrat gain of 34 seats in the House. The standard prediction was +35. Are you really crowing about one seat in the House?

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Michigan and Pennsylvania went Democrat tonight. Wisconsin may go in both major races. Iowa(!) is basically a purple state tonight. That is an EC win right there with no other changes.


Yep.

And what three states cobbled together 80,000 votes to give Trump the electoral college win?

Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

He doesn’t win without those despite Florida and Texas and Ohio.

That narrow path he took to victory in 2016 just disappeared if tonight’s results are a permanent change.

And somehow I don’t see two more years of Trump tweets and rallies and dementia filled statements bringing those voters back into the Trumpkin fold.
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4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I can’t imagine how happy the guys that actually protect us are glad they aren’t going to be put on public trial every month by Devin Nunes.

All that bullshit vaporized tonight.  Combine truthful House efforts with truthful Justice efforts and the result is serious shrinkage in Senate GOP kabuki.

 

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2 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

 


Yep.

And what three states cobbled together 80,000 votes to give Trump the electoral college win?

Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

He doesn’t win without those despite Florida and Texas and Ohio.

That narrow path he took to victory in 2016 just disappeared if tonight’s results are a permanent change.

And somehow I don’t see two more years of Trump tweets and rallies and dementia filled statements bringing those voters back into the Trumpkin fold.

 

2016 would have to be the permanent change. Those states were bucking the established trends in that election. The suburbs, where the GOP has been getting hammered, are the parts of those states that are growing. Even with the "realignment" narrative getting some staying power, it doesn't necessarily bode well for Trump in those states. PA in particular with an actual east coast urban hub in Philly. You can bet they will be chomping at the bit to vote for whoever is running against Trump.

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6 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Dems won the house by less than predicted. GOP won senate by more. And governors by more than we thought. 

The Senate was a pipe dream.  All that matters was the house.  Doesn't matter by how much.  The next two years are going to be hell on Trump.  Then let's see if Kasich or Romney get frisky in next 6 months. 

All the governor races showed is that white people in the south still don't like voting for black people (seriously, the number of votes Nelson received over Gillum tells you all you need to know).  

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