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Posted

A little more on that factory hit.  It probably didn’t slow production too much, but hitting a vital factory 1000km into the country is pretty serious.

 

Ukrainian drones struck the capital of the Chuvash republic of Cheboksary in Russia, which is around 1,000 km from the Ukrainian border. Target was VNIIR-Progress factory. Explosion from the factory area can be seen from multiple angles.
 

VNIIR is a leading Russian developer, manufacturer, and supplier of hardware and software solutions for relay protection and automation, automated process control systems, electronic component base (electronic modules), electrical engineering products, radio-electronic products, as well as automation control systems and hardware and software solutions. They also produce antennas for anti drone protection.

All airports in that region have been closed.

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Posted
19 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

I don’t think Ukraine needs the United States to hang on long enough for Russia to implode.  Moscow and Saint Petersburg peeps aren’t going to stay silent in their luxury apartments without electricity or heat this winter.

Russia has no air defense. This is only gonna get worse for Russia.  Ukraine just needs to slow-roll any peace talks with the  assistance of our European allies until they have enough stock for a 50 ICBM launch at more power plants.  and then Russians can give each other IOU for potatoes for Christmas gifts.

Quote

IOU for potatoes

Title of newest Russian ballet production?

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Posted
52 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

If our country was still capable of shame, how embarrassing is it that someone close to the President--who knows him well--talks about him to fucking Russians like a fucking child. 

"Just call and congratulate him on his achievement. Tell him what a big, strong man he is. Maybe tousle his hair a little. He'll agree to anything."

Thank goodness we're respected again, right @realgreggym?

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Posted
6 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

I want this to be true, but how so?

They are running out of planes, jet fuel, and experienced pilots.  Their air defenses have clearly been degraded, and Ukraine has tried to take out every air defense radar and missile site it can.  

Russia moved their fighter bombers far away from Ukraine to avoid the drone swarms, but now that Ukraine can reach anywhere I’m not sure what their plan is to disperse aircraft.  Ukraine is not stopping It’s hunt for radar and missile sites.  Russia simply cannot replace those sophisticated systems under the current sanctions and economic enshittening. 

As long as Ukrainian jets have altitude, manpads aren’t a problem.  The glide bombs are launched by Russia outside of Ukrainian territory.  I think it is rare for Russian aircraft to enter Ukrainian airspace.  Could be wrong. I’m not specifically following the air war.

but I do look forward to the day that Ukrainian Jets can attack Russian jets as they try to launch bombs at Ukrainian citizens

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Posted
2 hours ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

I want this to be true, but how so?

@Gatorubet covered most, but I'd say that Ukraine is getting modern fighters in numbers the Russians can't (along with the munitions for them), and Ukraine is increasing production of their homegrown long-range munitions (drones/missiles) which are performing admirably, all the while Russia can't currently keep up with air defense system production (as Ukraine continues to destroy/degrade them and target the manufacturing chain). 

Russia also can't seem to shake the strategy of lobbing a significant number of missiles/drones at civilian targets, which, just as the Germans did during the Battle of Britain (when they switched from targeting the RAF to civilians), is going to bite them in the ass, since every missile or drone put into civilian targets is a missile or drone that's not used against military targets. If their production/acquisition slows down, they are going to wish they had those missiles and drones.

When Germany was unable to defend the Fatherland from allied bombing, things started turning slowly, and then suddenly. There's going to come a point where Ukraine drops the Kerch bridge, and shuts down large-scale navel re-supply to Crimea, and starts putting missiles into Moscow. They are already hitting power facilities around Moscow as it is, and there seems to be few targets in Crimea and along the Russian coastline that Ukraine can't touch (and Ukraine has been working over Russia's cargo ships that would be used to supply Crimea).

I won't join Gatorubet in his bet about next June, but I do think things will look completely different by then, and probably even by February.  This is a very unique moment in history - Ukraine is able to put an economic (and arguably psychological once the heating and electricity fails for longer and longer times) pressure on Russia that few other countries in history have been able to accomplish in the same situation.

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Posted

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-peace-plan-ukraine-drew-russian-document-sources-say-2025-11-26/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/exclusive-us-peace-plan-for-ukraine-drew-from-russian-document-sources-say/ar-AA1RaF7j

Quote

Exclusive-US peace plan for Ukraine drew from Russian document, sources say

The U.S.-backed 28-point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, which became public last week, drew from a Russian-authored paper submitted to the Trump administration in October, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

The Russians shared the paper, which outlined Moscow's conditions for ending the war, with senior U.S. officials in mid-October, following a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Washington, the sources said.

 

Posted
41 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

@Gatorubet covered most, but I'd say that Ukraine is getting modern fighters in numbers the Russians can't (along with the munitions for them), 

That’s debatable. They were promised 100 Grippen but it wasn’t a grant according to the video I posted a few days ago. Ukraine will need to pay for them. Ukraine, however, has worse financials than Russia (again in the video). So, I am a little skeptical whether Ukraine will ever see the full 100. It seems to me to be more of just a letter of intent.

Posted
58 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

And Russia is not making any concessions. We continue to get played by Putin, how fucking embarrassing.

 

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Posted
10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And Russia is not making any concessions. We continue to get played by Putin, how fucking embarrassing.

 

IMG_4709.gif.f961ea651bb341d31c6666f368100f60.gif

Someone needs to show him a poll that a majority of people think he’s a weak bitch - and Putin’s bitch - because a strong man would arm Ukraine.  Plus, demanding that the kids are returned would ease the pressure on all things pedophile. 

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Posted

if the Ukrainian special forces are so damn good, then why can’t they kill Kadyrov - - leaving evidence it was an FSB action.

It seems like it’s just about time for a second front in Russia, no?

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Posted
3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

if the Ukrainian special forces are so damn good, then why can’t they kill Kadyrov - - leaving evidence it was an FSB action.

It seems like it’s just about time for a second front in Russia, no?

I don’t hear of him going near any battlefields any more.  Or outside of Chechnya.  

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Posted
 
“Ukraine is the only country fulfilling NATO’s destiny and we owe them everything.”

200.gif
Hell yes Kasparov.  Well said.  And Witkoff is just making real estate deals.

Saw him speak at UT a couple of years ago (with Lobo, RIP). He spoke on Ukraine, brilliantly.
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Posted
12 hours ago, aggie08 said:

If our country was still capable of shame, how embarrassing is it that someone close to the President--who knows him well--talks about him to fucking Russians like a fucking child. 

"Just call and congratulate him on his achievement. Tell him what a big, strong man he is. Maybe tousle his hair a little. He'll agree to anything."

But whatever you do, don't give him noogies.

Posted (edited)

POKROVSK: Russia once again claims complete control of the city. UKR reports ~50% still under control. Cumulative Russian losses since the main offensive toward Pokrovsk began in earnest in July–August 2024 are staggering. Western and Ukrainian estimates place total Russian casualties (killed, wounded, missing) in the Pokrovsk axis alone at approximately 110,000 men, with well over 18,000 confirmed killed in the last two months of fighting. 

Hundreds of Russian tanks, armored vehicles, artillery pieces and thousands of drones have also been destroyed, making Pokrovsk the single most expensive operation for Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

Busy night

Seems busier than normal. Crazy how you can see where Russia has no air defense.

Those hits on those aircraft from a few days ago were precise as hell, and probably will make Russia move some aircraft a little more to the rear.

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted
13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Seems busier than normal. Crazy how you can see where Russia has no air defense.

No air defense.   Once the allies had almost complete control over the skys in World War II, Germany folded within six months.   And Speer was much better at keeping things going than Russia is now.    I can’t see Russia taking this amount of destruction in critical areas and maintaining the ability to fight this war. I just don’t.

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Posted
34 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

No air defense.   Once the allies had almost complete control over the skys in World War II, Germany folded within six months.   And Speer was much better at keeping things going than Russia is now.    I can’t see Russia taking this amount of destruction in critical areas and maintaining the ability to fight this war. I just don’t.

I want to believe.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Parliament said:

I want to believe.

They are losing the ability to raise money through exports (they need that cash), they are having problems getting imported high-end stuff (outside of Iran which that will have to slow down at some point, Iran can’t accept that many IOUs), they are having to bail out large industries (railroad), they are having to import artillery shells which is crazy given that the manufacturing is not close to that of a cruise missile, they are losing air defenses faster than they can make them, their power grid is starting to feel the effects.

And they just burned through 180,000 men over a few months for a town of formerly 60,000 people. That is something they are unequipped to do again, so not the best use of men,

And they can’t just print a shitload of money to try and keep the lights on or the manufacturing going, at least not for the long term.

Are they at the point the Germans were in the fall of 1944? Hard to say, but they are well on the way there. Ukraine doesn’t have to devastate Moscow directly, they just have to make it unlivable for the poors and middle-class by way of fuel and electricity shortages,

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Posted

Europe thinks the unthinkable: “Retailiating against Russia“

I have been shouting this from the roof for decades and it is starting to sink in to more and more European officials. They realize that doing nothing is always the greatest risk. 

Allowing Russia to wage a hybrid war against the West without a proper response was always losing game. There must be costs for aggression and they have been well overdue.

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-thinks-the-unthinkable-retaliating-against-russia-nato-cyber-hybrid/

Russian drones have buzzed Poland and Romania in recent weeks and months, while mysterious drones have caused havoc at airports and military bases across the continent. Other incidents include GPS jamming, incursions by fighter aircraft and naval vessels, and an explosion on a key Polish rail link ferrying military aid to Ukraine.

“Overall, Europe and the alliance must ask themselves how long we are willing to tolerate this type of hybrid warfare ... [and] whether we should consider becoming more active ourselves in this area,” German State Secretary for Defense Florian Hahn told Welt TV last week.

Hybrid attacks are nothing new. Russia has in recent years sent assassins to murder political enemies in the U.K., been accused of blowing up arms storage facilities in Central Europe, attempted to destabilize the EU by financing far-right political parties, engaged in social media warfare, and tried to upend elections in countries like Romania and Moldova.

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Posted
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Europe thinks the unthinkable: “Retailiating against Russia“

I have been shouting this from the roof for decades and it is starting to sink in to more and more European officials. They realize that doing nothing is always the greatest risk. 

Allowing Russia to wage a hybrid war against the West without a proper response was always losing game. There must be costs for aggression and they have been well overdue.

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-thinks-the-unthinkable-retaliating-against-russia-nato-cyber-hybrid/

Russian drones have buzzed Poland and Romania in recent weeks and months, while mysterious drones have caused havoc at airports and military bases across the continent. Other incidents include GPS jamming, incursions by fighter aircraft and naval vessels, and an explosion on a key Polish rail link ferrying military aid to Ukraine.

“Overall, Europe and the alliance must ask themselves how long we are willing to tolerate this type of hybrid warfare ... [and] whether we should consider becoming more active ourselves in this area,” German State Secretary for Defense Florian Hahn told Welt TV last week.

Hybrid attacks are nothing new. Russia has in recent years sent assassins to murder political enemies in the U.K., been accused of blowing up arms storage facilities in Central Europe, attempted to destabilize the EU by financing far-right political parties, engaged in social media warfare, and tried to upend elections in countries like Romania and Moldova.

Worth the full read

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Posted
14 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

“Ukraine is the only country fulfilling NATO’s destiny and we owe them everything.”


Barack Obama Applause GIF by Obama

Hell yes Kasparov.  Well said.  And Witkoff is just making real estate deals.

14 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


Saw him speak at UT a couple of years ago (with Lobo, RIP). He spoke on Ukraine, brilliantly.

On 2/7/2023 at 10:24 PM, Brisketexan said:

So, went to the Kasparov event tonight. It was fantastic. He didn’t pussyfoot around, he went right into discussing Ukraine, Russia, etc.

I took notes of particularly interesting points; Lobo criticized me for having my face in my phone at times, but I was typing.

Below are my raw notes, I ain’t a court reporter.

——————

In the last few years, so many politicians have turned into clowns, and a comedian has become a hero.

We must judge things relatively. Maybe the dollar has weakness, but the other currencies are weaker.

Ukraine is the frontline of freedom, in the never-ending battle between freedom and tyranny.

Why was Putin so wrong about how Ukraine would receive him? Goes back to 1994, and Yeltsin, and him launching the war in Chechnya. At the same time, Ukraine saw something Russia never has - a peaceful transition of power. For all its ills, it had a civil society that would not accept a ruler they did not choose.

They demonstrate to us that there are values worth fighting and dying for.

Americans got it wrong - thought that Ukraine would fold in two weeks, so we shouldn’t give them weapons that will end up in Russian hands.

Dictators lie about what they did, but they are always telling us what they are GOING to do, accurately (see Mein Kampf).

One of Putin’s first acts - restoring Soviet anthem. It’s a symbol, but dictators need symbols. He remained reserved about his plans, because he wasn’t ready to move on them. Kasparov knew what he was going to do if ever given the chance, and he’s gotten it.

Skyrocketing oil prices gave Russian people a taste of “normal life.” McDonald’s, etc. It MUST be a democracy, right?

The parallels between 2014 Russia (Sochi Olympics) and 1936 Germany (Berlin Olympics) were strong. And people overlooked these rising problems because business is business, and we ignore the lessons of history. 20 months after 1936 games, Hitler annexed Austria. 20 DAYS after Sochi, Putin annexed Crimea.

Weakness from Obama and red lines. Merkel said we can’t get off German gas, she had 16 years. Turns out they could get off Russian gas in 10 days. Weakness of western leaders emboldened Putin.

Putin has an army, money, and nukes, yes. But let’s go back to 1941. Great things happen due to leadership or lack thereof.

January 1943, Casablanca conference, set the goal of “unconditional surrender,” which took political will.

The challenge of Stalin taking over West Berlin. For 11 months, allied leadership defeated him. I am a Berliner. Tear down this wall. Leadership moments. How can you expect a wall to come down that’s been here so long? Bold leaders push it.

Now, when people look at America, they don’t know what it is. We used to have a consistent policy approach when it came to the Cold War. We are still a factor, but it depends on who is in the White House.

The aid we provide is much less than Ukraine needs, but much more than Putin expects.

Tucker Carlson is Russian propaganda - is he parroting them, or are they parroting him?

Our fear of China sounds exactly like our concern about a rising Japan in the 80s. Yet for all we fear China, they couldn’t come up with a decent vax, we did.

The remedy to these problems is freedom and creativity that comes with it.

What has surprised him? The volume of the genocidal crimes committed in Ukraine. And how many Russians accept it. They don’t WANT to know the alternative (true) viewpoint. It’s a shield that protects their conscience.

Russian message now is that they have to deplete the Ukrainian forces, fight to the last Ukrainian. There’s already a quarter million dead soldiers, total. Went from 60,000 artillery rounds fired a day to 15-20k, though.

Re the warnings that the West is sleepwalking into WWIII - we are already in WWIII, Putin already decided that. This was never about Ukraine, which he doesn’t recognize as a true independent nation. It was an attack on the rest of the world, governed by treaties, agreements, and the rule of law. It’s about BEING the law, via might makes right. Indeed, some Russians thought WWIII was the Cold War, which they lost. This is WWIV. And we were sleepwalking, BEFORE this war.

He’s not playing chess. He’s playing Poker, with bluffing, and watching your opponents fold on your bluff time and again. He thought that the free world would fold, and he would have been right, but for Ukrainian leadership and courage.

Re: taking back Ukraine, is it an attack on Russian soil? We’re back to poker, and probabilities about the risk of escalation. Dictators move to take advantage of perceived weakness. He thought he could get away with it. Oh, and when you say it’s not a bluff…it’s a bluff. All other dictators are watching this. Ukraine affects Taiwan’s fate. Ukraine’s victory would make dictators tremble, its loss will do the opposite. It even inspires the Iranian revolution - “I wish Russian men had the courage of Iranian women.”

He wants reparations to be paid, and war criminals brought to justice. And as long as Putin is in power, the war won’t end. Empires like that must expand, if they retreat, they collapse. War is the only justification for him remaining in power. The liberation of Ukraine is the first step to liberating Russia - true Russian patriots should be doing all the can to help Ukraine win.

How will it end and how is Ukriane succeeding? Freedom wins. He’s an optimist by nature, history doesn’t end. We know that evil doesn’t die. It may be dormant, but when we become complacent, it rises up. Ukraine wins because they are creative. He believes it ends this year (optimist), because attrition plays to Putin’s hands. We don’t want this war to be an issue in our presidential campaign. Victory for Ukraine is victory for Russia.

How and why does Putin leave (bullet, coup)? He’d rather not speculate, instead talk about what history shows us. Weakness, losing, is when he leaves.

Big difference between Russia and Ukraine: Russia is still an imperial mindset (comes with conquest, expansion). Ukraine has shifted to a statehood view. Russia has to make that shift.

The only way to wake up Russian society is a decisive military defeat. The Russian public needs to understand that the age of Russian empire is over. There are parts of Russia that will break away. If it makes the transition from empire to national state, it will be smaller. We don’t know the outcome of the collapse of the Russian empire exactly. We don’t know how and when it will end, but it will end.
He will fall because his powers will fail. Dictators need a myth, and a loss shatters that myth (loss of Crimea would do that).

Will leadership go along with him if he wants to use nukes? What would a mafia do? Dying for and with him is not what they’re interested in.

Interesting question to him: What is a downside of being intelligent? Frustration. What seems obvious to him, why don’t others see it? He also knows the limits of his skills, he knows what he’s good at and what he’s bad at.

Do you believe Ukraine can win without sustained western support, and will we support them long and strong enough? No, they need our support across the board. But they really don’t need that much. Most of our aid is weapons sitting in storage. They just need what we have in stock. It is not a charitable contribution - THIS is the war that NATO has been preparing for since 1949. The planned battlefield was the Rhine, now it’s the Dnipro. The principles are the same, Ukraine is doing what NATO was built for. Imagine, we can end the Russian problem by supplying Ukraine with our weapons. It’s crazy that it’s even a debate. It’s the greatest bargain imaginable.

This is our war. Putin is fighting us. He is fighting the world we live in, the world of the rule of law and norms that has made us successful and prosperous.

—————
Lots to digest. Really interesting stuff from a voice who has been sounding the alarm on Putin’s plans for over 20 years.

I reposted @Brisketexan 's summary of Kasparov's comments from February 2023 for convenience.

After reading those comments again, and remembering what I heard, I count that short time listening to Garry Kasparov speak as maybe the most enlightening hour of my not so young life. I felt that way at the time, and still do. 

The sad reality is we are almost 3 years down the road, and here we are. The former arsenal of democracy; now we have our hands extended, not to lift those that need a hand, but to pull them out of the way so we can make a few bucks off of what they have.

  

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Posted

So what has really changed? Case in point. So NOW he is going to take land if he does not get what he wants? 

Putin says US plan could be ‘basis’ of a Ukraine deal but threatens to take land by force if Kyiv doesn’t withdraw

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that a US plan to end the war in Ukraine could “form the basis for future agreements” but renewed threats to seize more territory by force unless Kyiv withdraws.

Speaking to reporters in Bishtek, in the Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan on Thursday, Putin confirmed the Kremlin was expecting a US delegation headed by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to visit Moscow early next week, adding that the Kremlin was ready for “serious discussion”.

But chances of a swift breakthrough appear slim after Putin repeated his maximalist demands, saying the war in Ukraine will only end “once Ukrainian troops withdraw from the territories they occupy.”

https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/27/europe/putin-trump-ukraine-peace-intl

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Posted

 

Quote

Some officials over in Ukraine have been stuffing their pockets with $100 million stolen from the energy sector. Before you get worried that someone has been dipping into the US or EU aid...this dates back long before all that started flowing in.

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, PTINS said:

The sad reality is we are almost 3 years down the road, and here we are. The former arsenal of democracy; now we have our hands extended, not to lift those that need a hand, but to pull them out of the way so we can make a few bucks off of what they have.

Yes, but we gave them enough aid to survive, and they've had to build a homegrown defense industry that includes the means to hit Russia deep, hard, and where it counts, and that nobody can tell them how to use, and Europe is finally starting to step out of our shadow.

It's unfortunate that in our lifetimes, we are watching the US give up our world leadership role, the "arsenal of democracy", but the kids are...errrr..Ukraine is going to be all right in the long run.  We gave them the bare minimum, and they pulled themselves together and are hurting Russia far more here in 2025 than we could have imagined at the end of 2022.

They may have just lost Pokrovsk, but Putin was going to do anything possible to get a victory ahead of all of these bullshit peace talks to anchor his claims over Ukrainian land and to try and lay the groundwork for something before the 4th anniversary comes up, but guess what?  He killed or wounded almost 15% of the entire Russian Army just to take this town of 60,000 people. Imagine if we killed or wounded 15% of the United States Army to take a city the size of Pflugerville.

And Finland and Sweden joined NATO. 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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