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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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42 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I think that was all part of the vision for the EU's expansion to encompass most of the Warsaw Pact countries of Eastern Europe. Certain, Germany saw it as an opportunity, and I'm fairly sure a lot of the German auto industry supply chain extends well into Poland, Czechia, etc. Recently, I was reading about the Itermarium project that emerged in the interwar period to fully integrate Eastern Europe to fend off Russian expansion and efforts to bring back some version of it for basically the same purpose. If Ukraine somehow wins this, or if it ends in an extended cease fire, I can totally see the idea taking off.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermarium

Thanks for posting. Fascinating. I knew nothing about this - other than knowing about the historical Polish Lithuanian Union (and Jan Sobieski, etc. )

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57 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I think that was all part of the vision for the EU's expansion to encompass most of the Warsaw Pact countries of Eastern Europe. Certain, Germany saw it as an opportunity, and I'm fairly sure a lot of the German auto industry supply chain extends well into Poland, Czechia, etc. Recently, I was reading about the Itermarium project that emerged in the interwar period to fully integrate Eastern Europe to fend off Russian expansion and efforts to bring back some version of it for basically the same purpose. If Ukraine somehow wins this, or if it ends in an extended cease fire, I can totally see the idea taking off.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermarium

There is already something sort of tangential to this idea kicking around, it’s called the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) and the U.S. has gone through several phases of being completely enamored with to “it’s cool, I guess.”  
 

But the inter-war was a different period and Poland was looking for a way to survive while wedged between great powers. That isn’t the case anymore. I’d expect Poland and the EU Central Europeans to be leading and advocating for full integration but the momentum will be absorption into EU, NATO, and other transatlantic structures. 
 

And yes, all of these nations are critical to the German (all Europe really) auto supply chain. Slovakia is most reliant.  And the Germans have been flagging that skilled labor ain’t so affordable there anymore, to the point of lobbying for Ukrainian and Serbian guest workers.  Bringing Ukraine, Moldava, the Balkans, etc fully into that chain is going to require not only infrastructure investment but more importantly stability, security and rule of law that comes with EU and NATO. 

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7 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There is already something sort of tangential to this idea kicking around, it’s called the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) and the U.S. has gone through several phases of being completely enamored with to “it’s cool, I guess.”  
 

But the inter-war was a different period and Poland was looking for a way to survive while wedged between great powers. That isn’t the case anymore. I’d expect Poland and the EU Central Europeans to be leading and advocating for full integration but the momentum will be absorption into EU, NATO, and other transatlantic structures. 
 

And yes, all of these nations are critical to the German (all Europe really) auto supply chain. Slovakia is most reliant.  And the Germans have been flagging that skilled labor ain’t so affordable there anymore, to the point of lobbying for Ukrainian and Serbian guest workers.  Bringing Ukraine, Moldava, the Balkans, etc fully into that chain is going to require not only infrastructure investment but more importantly stability, security and rule of law that comes with EU and NATO. 

Thank you. It was actually the Three Seas Initiative that brought me down the rabbit hole to learn about the Intermarium. A couple of years ago, I watched this YouTube video that outlined the 3SI, but I couldn't remember the name of it when responding to Brisket.

 

Edited by bolverk
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2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


I’ve got some thoughts noodling around in my head about how, if this war ends in something close to the right way, Eastern Europe could be a “next economic frontier” with respect to redevelopment, cheap access to property and labor, and perhaps some thoughtful immigration to those places. But those thoughts sure haven’t gelled. I’d be curious to know/read some of the information out there on what people much smarter than I am think Eastern Europe might look like 10 years from now.

They're Mexico with out tacos.  Close to a buncha demand, cheaper labor.  All they gotta do is pull their head out of their butts, fix their government, invest in infrastructure, etc.  (And start making tacos.)

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21 minutes ago, Parliament said:

They're Mexico with out tacos.  Close to a buncha demand, cheaper labor.  All they gotta do is pull their head out of their butts, fix their government, invest in infrastructure, etc.  (And start making tacos.)

Very much my thinking.  And, per the boy's efforts last year, I now know that the Ukrainian word for taco is......"tako."  So, there's that.

I have friends who had significant ongoing projects with Ukrainian tech guys (programmers etc.), spoke very highly of them.  There are/will be opportunities, depending on when/how the war shakes out.  Even setting aside Ukraine, the war has had the effect of shoving other Eastern European states even closer to the west.  Ties will increase, opportunities will as well.

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1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

One thing to remember is that there’s funding through fiscal year 2023 thanks to the omnibus.

They also padded the NDAA with all sorts of authority to allow the administration to transfer weapons and order replacement equipment without having to come back to Congress. 

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31 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

They also padded the NDAA with all sorts of authority to allow the administration to transfer weapons and order replacement equipment without having to come back to Congress. 

Honestly that's a little concerning if we were to ever get a war hawk in office. But whatever, safeguards are for suckers

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1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Honestly that's a little concerning if we were to ever get a war hawk in office. But whatever, safeguards are for suckers

Sober oversight of the military left the building in the late fall of 2001.  Raytheon lobbyist out front shoulda told ya.

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8 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Probably wouldn't change anything even if he died. The invasion isn't just a Putin thing. It's very much a Russia thing.

I think it would change some things - I think you'd see some people in the streets, and the Duma has to have quite a few members not happy about the war, plus the oligarchs.

And it will set off a power struggle since Putin set himself up to be dictator for life.  Plus, Putin put so much effort into getting rid of competent leaders, and even creating a PMC that reports directly to him, what happens when he kicks off and the PMC leadership makes a power grab for non-PMC units and then decides to come back to Russia?  Those PMC types ain't going to put up with shit from Russian cops.

Oh, and the first batch of criminals that fought in Ukraine for Wagner are being released back into the wild, and who do they have to thank? Prigozhin.

Then again, whoever takes over, and I don't see it being bloodless, may do the "We have to take Ukraine to honor Putin."

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32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think it would change some things - I think you'd see some people in the streets, and the Duma has to have quite a few members not happy about the war, plus the oligarchs.

And it will set off a power struggle since Putin set himself up to be dictator for life.  Plus, Putin put so much effort into getting rid of competent leaders, and even creating a PMC that reports directly to him, what happens when he kicks off and the PMC leadership makes a power grab for non-PMC units and then decides to come back to Russia?  Those PMC types ain't going to put up with shit from Russian cops.

Oh, and the first batch of criminals that fought in Ukraine for Wagner are being released back into the wild, and who do they have to thank? Prigozhin.

Then again, whoever takes over, and I don't see it being bloodless, may do the "We have to take Ukraine to honor Putin."

It's also going to depend on timing. Prigozhin/PMC's have gradually been accumulating more power at the expense of the professional Russian army and leadership. Also, as you pointed out, Prigozhin just released a bunch of criminals back into the wild. I think it will be interesting to see if they owe him loyalty for their freedom from prison, or if they fault him for the awful conditions they were deployed in. Prigozhin has apparently successfully blamed most of that on the professional Russian military and leadership, so the convict army likely sides with him. Putin used ties with the Russian mob to help consolidate power and that's an obvious route for Prigozhin to follow. 

At this point, he would have to be considered the favorite to replace Putin, having a private army and a network of criminals. The longer it takes, the stronger Prigozhin's hand gets.

Regarding how that effects the war, there are people in Russia that Ukraine and the West could potentially hold discussions with. Prigozhin is not one of them. He's a criminal thug that would be a complete non-starter as a leader that Ukraine/the West could actually negotiate with, so the war would likely continue and depend on how strong his hold on power is. 

Regardless of who it is, it's going to be difficult for anyone to match the level of control Putin has seized, especially on such an accelerated time scale. Unfortunately, the Russian people have proven themselves to lack even an ounce of independence, or self-respect, so they'll likely stand aside and accept the new czar and do what they are told. Same as they always have. 

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Good article on the German decision (or forced hand) to give Marders to Ukraine.  Olaf’s strategy is to delay, deflect, then be forced to do the thing he didn’t want to do anyway. 
 

Quote

“Germany had every opportunity to take the initiative to move first on tank deliveries and be hailed as a leader,” Berlin explained. “But the Scholz chancellery refused. It is not France's fault that Germany waited too long to act.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230107-did-france-surprise-germany-by-pledging-tanks-for-ukraine 

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7 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Probably wouldn't change anything even if he died. The invasion isn't just a Putin thing. It's very much a Russia thing.

Wrong. Everything would change.

Mysterious deaths of key people, economic ruin, protests that are vocal or people escaping war….all of these things are not driven by a unified country. This is a dictator that is destroying his own country.

If he’s still alive when this Ukraine issue is over, you’ll see different leadership. Sadly, I think as long as he’s alive, his obsession with stealing land will also continue.

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Wrong. Everything would change.
Mysterious deaths of key people, economic ruin, protests that are vocal or people escaping war….all of these things are not driven by a unified country. This is a dictator that is destroying his own country.
If he’s still alive when this Ukraine issue is over, you’ll see different leadership. Sadly, I think as long as he’s alive, his obsession with stealing land will also continue.

I think you’re correct. But it isn’t just Putins obsessions. It’s been a Russian obsession for time immemorial. So we will have to deal with it as long as there is Russia.
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