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25 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Kazakhstan has always been one of our bigger supporters.  
 

 

 

 

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Jokes aside, this is a big move for them, they don't have much in the way of shade from anywhere.  I was curious so I looked up their military capability and quite frankly they make Ukraine look like a global superpower.  The have a standing military of 100k, but that's deceiving because of annual mandatory conscription, the truth is they have a professional armed services of about 30k.  A very tiny Navy (more or less search and rescue for the Caspian Sea), an Air Force of about 60 soviet planes, non upgraded, and the rest is general Army.  

Basically, I have to think they are making a play at realigning themselves, and I have to guess with China (silk road and all that entails).  

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12 hours ago, BamaATL said:

It bears repeating because it's not good news.  On the one hand, it's not surprising, if anything it's sort of surprising this hasn't been done already.  On the other hand, I have to imagine being on a crew building this must be terrifying, because you are a pretty stagnant target a lot of the time.  

UKR destruction of landing craft that RU would have resupplied with is why they are doing this.  I don't expect it to go well.

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13 hours ago, BamaATL said:

True, but the bad news is that it signals intent to dig lines all the way to the sea and fight it out.  Even if the Ukrainians break thru in the next few weeks, the Russians are preparing for this to continue, for a long time.  

It also means that Russia is building new infrastructure for the Ukrainians when they take over.

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Western countries plan to increase weapon production in #Ukraine, as reported by The New York Times. According to the newspaper, yesterday's visit to #Kyiv by #NATO Secretary General Jens #Stoltenberg and the Defense Ministers of the United Kingdom and France is connected to these plans.

Just have to give them substantial air defense in the meantime. 

Edited by KYHorn
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FYI for Austin peeps. Secretary Blinken is going to be at UT first week of October. 

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will travel to Houston and Austin, Texas, as well as Mexico City, Mexico, from October 3-5, 2023.

In Houston, Secretary Blinken will visit Rice University to meet with former Secretary of State James Baker and participate in a conversation with Director of the Baker Institute for Public Policy Ambassador David Satterfield. The Secretary will also visit the Diplomatic Security Service Houston Field Office. In Austin, he will visit the University of Texas at Austin to participate in a moderated conversation hosted by the Clements Center for National Security.

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10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I really don't think a lot of people realize that if Russia were to win, the chances of us actually getting into a straight-up confrontation with Russia increase dramatically.

On a side note, in reference to a comment earlier, I think it's safe to say that most Russian milbloggers are self-censoring, because the ones that don't seem to have a knack for getting in serious shit.

That definitely seems to be the case. I can't remember if this was posted here yesterday:

 

 

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16 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

And cutting that much energy out of the global supply likely would cause a global recession which likely would backfire politically for most pro-Ukrainian governments. 

Yep.  AN embargo on 10% of the world's oil output would cause oil prices to jump 50% in the short run, maybe more.  So, if you think the American consumer can bare gasoline running $6.50 in Texas and $9 in Cali, then go for it.  Sad but true. 

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4 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Pretty sure I posted this story before, both of my Iraq deployments were within the Hit-Haditha corridor. I was stationed at the Haditha Dam during my second tour. Kazakhstan actually joined the Coalition of the Willing and provided "peacekeeping troops" to the Iraq war. They didn't send many, just a company or two, so they weren't super effective, so we assigned them as a base defense for the Haditha Dam. So they were the ones standing guard at the gates etc., and every time we'd come back in from a patrol, we'd always get a good chuckle because they manned the main American-side gate with a ZPU-4 Anti-Aircraft Gun just pointed straight down the road, which we all thought was a novel use of ancient equipment. We were also forbidden from touring/exploring or going into the bowels of the Dam, because that was the Kazakhstani's domain, and we had all heard stories of the units before us having "odd encounters" when exploring down in the dark tunnels and coming face to face with their patrols in the pitch black.

My personal experiences though with them they were friendly enough, but it was obvious that they didn't have a lot of money, so all their equipment looked busted and old to me, and we were skeptical it would actually work if the shit hit the fan. 

what are we talking about here, the butt stuff?

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24 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Kazakhstan joined the "Coalition of the Willing" and sent troops to Iraq with us. We used them as Base defense. We assigned them as base defense for Al Asad airbase, which was our most important base in Al-Anbar. My first deployment I was stationed there, and we used to get hit all the time. They did a pretty decent job and got in a few firefights while I was there.

 

edit: Confused my second deployment in Haditha (with Azerbajanis) with my first deployment in Al Asad (with Kazakhstan)

 

I'm certainly not doubting their valor, just saying that they don't really appear to have a formal alliance with anyone else, which is what surprises me.  I don't think they would stand against Russia like this unless China has given some sort of private security assurance.  It would appear, in terms of numbers, even against a very depleted Russia, they wouldn't do very well, and at least on paper, it doesn't appear to me they have anything formal as a security agreement.  I could be wrong though.  

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14 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

^ While goodish news, it's exposing a worrying trend. It used to be only a handful of loudmouths who opposed additional aid, I think it was something like 30 in both houses who signed a letter, but now it's half the party. Hope this gets straightened out.

 

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4 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep.  AN embargo on 10% of the world's oil output would cause oil prices to jump 50% in the short run, maybe more.  So, if you think the American consumer can bare gasoline running $6.50 in Texas and $9 in Cali, then go for it.  Sad but true. 

Even worse, at $150/bbl, aggy could afford to fire Jimbo.

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4 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

I was listening to Mark Galeotti's podcast In Moscow's Shadow the other day and this post makes me think about his latest episode where he speaks for a bit about the self-sustainability of the war in Russia. The milbloggers are a small part of the discussion (established oligarchs, upcoming oligarchs, construction entrepreneurs were listed of more importance for example) but he referenced this BBC article Ukraine war: Putin influencers profiting from war propaganda which discusses how much money some of the milbloggers are making on advertisements, and notes of course the money will stop if the war stops. He goes on to discuss how certain individuals and groups play by different rules within Russia and gives an example of when the Chechen radical Muslim rebels were looking for weapons to fight the Russian army they first went to the Chechen mafia in Moscow but got turned away because the Chechen mafia worried it would draw too much heat from the government. The Chechen rebels then moved on to ask the Russian mafia to sell them weapons and the Russian mafia were more than happy to provide weaponry to help kill Russian soldiers. The milbloggers complaining about not being able to post more info can probably also be seen as complaining that their earnings are being cut into by censors and the poor performance of the russian military. Ya love to see it. 

 

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A #Russian drone (I am sure of the origin) crashed near #Galati, 21 km from the #Ukrainian border into #Romanian land at 2.5 km from a town with a population of 270,000.

#NATO air police are currently on high alert and flying fighter jets at low altitude.

A second drone (sources tell me) was heard a few dozen minutes ago.

Even if these drones are not intentionally sent by Russia against Romania, they may also have implications for observing Romania's response. At the same time, these drones are only arriving in #Romania because of the Russian Federation, the one that initiated this illegal, immoral, illegitimate and unprovoked invasion!

Brăila (7.5 km away from the alleged site of the drone explosion) is a city with a population of 155,000 inhabitants, making the Galați-Brăila concentration the largest urban concentration after the Bucharest capital area.

The Romanian authorities must respond firmly this time!

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Long/interesting article about Putin liking the smell of his own farts/believing his own propaganda/using his own product.

https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-victim-own-propaganda-ukraine-glasser-interview/32616268.html

RFE/RL: The first question, and pretty much most of the questions will be about the man in Moscow whom you studied and reported on for years. Are there still moments that he surprises you, or does something that you didn’t expect?

Susan Glasser: I would say that, because we were warned so explicitly in the advance to the run-up and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, I can't say that it was a surprise. But it's still a shocking decision, especially because it was extremely risky. Some people previously saw Vladimir Putin as being an incrementalist, certainly aggressive, but careful within that. And you could say that the invasion of Ukraine was certainly not incremental, except perhaps by some crazy logic.

One of at least the short-term consequences of this invasion of Ukraine has actually been to increase the level of repression and eliminate the possibilities for opposition inside of the Russian system…

I think that Putin, in the big picture, has surprised us all. Let's not forget that 20 years ago, if we were having this conversation and we said, “Well, he will have become the longest-serving leader of Russia since Josef Stalin, that he will have invaded not one but two of his neighbors, that he will be forging a new alliance with China that will have a ‘no limits partnership’ as the definition of this alliance,” we would have been shocked. It was not in the frame of possibility. So, in a big-picture sense, I would say that Vladimir Putin has surprised us all, actually….

I think that he seems to have become perhaps more messianic, more wrapped up in his own vision of personalized power over the 20 years that he has been in power. That's not surprising -- that's happened in many dictatorships -- but it does seem that Putin views himself now as a sort of heir to the tsars.

RFE/RL: Is there a kind of a “I am the state” thinking behind that?

Glasser: Yes. The cult of the leader is something that he would have grown up with in the Soviet Union to a certain extent. He is clearly more in the mold of the early leaders of the Soviet Union -- the Lenins and Stalins -- than he is of the mold of collective leadership in the later days of the Soviet Union. I've always thought that he viewed himself as the sort of successor to the KGB leader who became one of the final leaders in the Soviet Union, Yury Andropov, and that he sees himself…

RFE/RL: Accomplishing what Andropov couldn’t?

Glasser: Exactly. That Andropov died too soon and was succeeded by [Mikhail] Gorbachev, who obviously is not a hero to Vladimir Putin.

RFE/RL: How much does Putin embody modern Russia? Has he molded the state into his image, or was it Russia that molded him according to a popular demand or something like popular sentiment of what Russia wanted to be?

Glasser: You know, it's very interesting, because I was based in Moscow in the first years of Putin's tenure as leader, the first four years, and I remember interviewing once one of the pollsters who worked for Putin -- Aleksandr Aslund -- when he first was elected Russian president. And Aslund said, “You know, the Yeltsin years, this idea of democracy in Russia, it was like taking a river and putting a dam in and eventually the river overflows and goes back to its natural course.”

And so he and those who helped to create Putin perceived Putin, in a way, as simply being a part of the inevitable restoration of the Russian river flowing in the direction that it would. And I think to him, the idea was that Putin could have been anyone, in effect; that Putin was simply the natural and logical manifestation of a return to a more authoritarian state.

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Long/interesting article about Putin liking the smell of his own farts/believing his own propaganda/using his own product.
https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-victim-own-propaganda-ukraine-glasser-interview/32616268.html
RFE/RL: The first question, and pretty much most of the questions will be about the man in Moscow whom you studied and reported on for years. Are there still moments that he surprises you, or does something that you didn’t expect?

Susan Glasser: I would say that, because we were warned so explicitly in the advance to the run-up and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, I can't say that it was a surprise. But it's still a shocking decision, especially because it was extremely risky. Some people previously saw Vladimir Putin as being an incrementalist, certainly aggressive, but careful within that. And you could say that the invasion of Ukraine was certainly not incremental, except perhaps by some crazy logic.
One of at least the short-term consequences of this invasion of Ukraine has actually been to increase the level of repression and eliminate the possibilities for opposition inside of the Russian system…
I think that Putin, in the big picture, has surprised us all. Let's not forget that 20 years ago, if we were having this conversation and we said, “Well, he will have become the longest-serving leader of Russia since Josef Stalin, that he will have invaded not one but two of his neighbors, that he will be forging a new alliance with China that will have a ‘no limits partnership’ as the definition of this alliance,” we would have been shocked. It was not in the frame of possibility. So, in a big-picture sense, I would say that Vladimir Putin has surprised us all, actually….
I think that he seems to have become perhaps more messianic, more wrapped up in his own vision of personalized power over the 20 years that he has been in power. That's not surprising -- that's happened in many dictatorships -- but it does seem that Putin views himself now as a sort of heir to the tsars.

RFE/RL: Is there a kind of a “I am the state” thinking behind that?

Glasser: Yes. The cult of the leader is something that he would have grown up with in the Soviet Union to a certain extent. He is clearly more in the mold of the early leaders of the Soviet Union -- the Lenins and Stalins -- than he is of the mold of collective leadership in the later days of the Soviet Union. I've always thought that he viewed himself as the sort of successor to the KGB leader who became one of the final leaders in the Soviet Union, Yury Andropov, and that he sees himself…

RFE/RL: Accomplishing what Andropov couldn’t?

Glasser: Exactly. That Andropov died too soon and was succeeded by [Mikhail] Gorbachev, who obviously is not a hero to Vladimir Putin.

RFE/RL: How much does Putin embody modern Russia? Has he molded the state into his image, or was it Russia that molded him according to a popular demand or something like popular sentiment of what Russia wanted to be?

Glasser: You know, it's very interesting, because I was based in Moscow in the first years of Putin's tenure as leader, the first four years, and I remember interviewing once one of the pollsters who worked for Putin -- Aleksandr Aslund -- when he first was elected Russian president. And Aslund said, “You know, the Yeltsin years, this idea of democracy in Russia, it was like taking a river and putting a dam in and eventually the river overflows and goes back to its natural course.”
And so he and those who helped to create Putin perceived Putin, in a way, as simply being a part of the inevitable restoration of the Russian river flowing in the direction that it would. And I think to him, the idea was that Putin could have been anyone, in effect; that Putin was simply the natural and logical manifestation of a return to a more authoritarian state.

TLDR version: Russia is an authoritarian piece of dick populated by pathetic thieves and slaves. Always has been. Always will be.

Wall it off and be done with it.
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