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Nice Guy Eddie

Texas 2020 general election

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The Texas GOP could soon face the mistake of putting up state-wide candidates like Paxton, Patrick and Cruz. That works fine when you have a strong majority but not when the state is closer to 50-50. Those candidates become too much of a liability.

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The Texas GOP has the same problem with rurals that that the National party has with Trumpers. Without them you lose, with them you end up with shit candidates like Paxton, Patrick, and Cruz. 

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3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The Texas GOP could soon face the mistake of putting up state-wide candidates like Paxton, Patrick and Cruz. That works fine when you have a strong majority but not when the state is closer to 50-50. Those candidates become too much of a liability.

That NYT article the other day on Texas Rs leading off with the description of Perry and moving into today I thought was pretty good on this.  Perry kept himself very mobile and could fit the whims of the day.  Patrick has hardened himself on being a culture warrior and won't be able to maneuver to fit future popular opinions.

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3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The Texas GOP could soon face the mistake of putting up state-wide candidates like Paxton, Patrick and Cruz. That works fine when you have a strong majority but not when the state is closer to 50-50. Those candidates become too much of a liability.

Yep, there is nothing exciting about any of those three.  Paxton is Paxton, he's going to try and keep as low of a profile as he can, given his legal troubles and that goofy-looking motherfucker has hit his political ceiling.  Cruz is still tied too closely to Trump's apron strings and his donors/lobbyists.  

Patrick is the only one who seems to be trying to....reinvent is a strong word in his case, but his pushing for improved/universal background checks was very calculated -he knew it was going to piss off the Trump base/NRA crowd (one and the same and all of that).  I know some claim that he had a change-of-heart, but until he announces what that change-of-heart was, I'm guessing his campaign folks are looking down the road, looking at the trends, and at the probability there will be more mass shootings, and he's trying to position himself in the middle so he won't have to carry water for the NRA crowd when the next shooting happens.  He's happy for Abbott to do that.

If Cruz had taken an actual stand against Trump after Trump mocked his wife's looks and mental illness, his dad, etc., and assuming Cruz wins in 2018, Cruz would be in a much better place come 2024.  Instead, Cruz has probably hit his ceiling.  I don't see how he wins in 2024.

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11 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

That NYT article the other day on Texas Rs leading off with the description of Perry and moving into today I thought was pretty good on this.  Perry kept himself very mobile and could fit the whims of the day.  Patrick has hardened himself on being a culture warrior and won't be able to maneuver to fit future popular opinions.

Patrick was willing to openly budge on the background check stuff.  That's yuggggeeee.  That shows a sense of self-awareness/political aptitude that I didn't think he possessed.

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2 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

The Texas GOP has the same problem with rurals that that the National party has with Trumpers. Without them you lose, with them you end up with shit candidates like Paxton, Patrick, and Cruz. 

Our only problem is time. Paxton and Goeb aren’t up again until 2022. Cruz 2024.

 

i fucking hate Goeb. Why the hell did he have to single handedly shut down marijuana reform?  Tons of other states have more progressive policies on this very modern issue. Weed is less dangerous than cigarettes and alcohol.

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I was curious about the Boomer and older percentage in Texas so using the Census' American factfinder numbers I estimated it was 35.8% in 2016 and 34.4% in 2017 the last year with data. Extrapolating to 2020 it should drop to 30.2% with 6.5 million Boomers+ in Texas in 2020. The Boomer+ number dropped by 145,000 from 2016 to 2017, which is what you would expect from normal death rates. 

That said the total population extrapolation from the census was low compared to other sources. Google comes up with 28.7 million in 2018 on top and a census extrapolation is 28.8 million in 2020. So based on the population being 29.7 million in 2020 and around 73% being voter age the Boomer and older population could be 29.8% in 2020. So we can split the difference and say Texas is 30% Boomer and older as a nice round number.

So if Texas votes Republican in 2020 it is not just the old's fault.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=CF

 

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9 minutes ago, RayDog said:

I was curious about the Boomer and older percentage in Texas so using the Census' American factfinder numbers I estimated it was 35.8% in 2016 and 34.4% in 2017 the last year with data. Extrapolating to 2020 it should drop to 30.2% with 6.5 million Boomers+ in Texas in 2020. The Boomer+ number dropped by 145,000 from 2016 to 2017, which is what you would expect from normal death rates. 

That said the total population extrapolation from the census was low compared to other sources. Google comes up with 28.7 million in 2018 on top and a census extrapolation is 28.8 million in 2020. So based on the population being 29.7 million in 2020 and around 73% being voter age the Boomer and older population could be 29.8% in 2020. So we can split the difference and say Texas is 30% Boomer and older as a nice round number.

So if Texas votes Republican in 2020 it is not just the old's fault.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=CF

 

I’m still expecting a red Texas in 2020 and a solidly purple Texas in 2024. A lot of olds will die off between now and 2024. 

 

Another interesting thing, Generation Z is overwhelmingly urban / suburb. Hardly any generation Z kids live in the rural areas. That’s another bad sign long term for repubs.

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In 2024 the boomer and older group will be less than 25% of eligible voters in Texas. And I should clarify that 30% in 2020 is the percentage of eligible voters not the total population.

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Party of small government!

Me thinks he needs to worry about his own party holding onto power in the state as a whole.  

But if he wants to try and drive up voter turnout in Austin, this is a goo day of getting a lot of Austinites off their asses.  I’m sure it wouldn’t impact the statewide races, would it?

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Cities have such little rights when it comes to fighting the state. The Constitution doesn't even recognize cities as a govt entity.  The states have all the power.

But carving our Austin like DC is silly.

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15 hours ago, RayDog said:

I was curious about the Boomer and older percentage in Texas so using the Census' American factfinder numbers I estimated it was 35.8% in 2016 and 34.4% in 2017 the last year with data. Extrapolating to 2020 it should drop to 30.2% with 6.5 million Boomers+ in Texas in 2020. The Boomer+ number dropped by 145,000 from 2016 to 2017, which is what you would expect from normal death rates. 

That said the total population extrapolation from the census was low compared to other sources. Google comes up with 28.7 million in 2018 on top and a census extrapolation is 28.8 million in 2020. So based on the population being 29.7 million in 2020 and around 73% being voter age the Boomer and older population could be 29.8% in 2020. So we can split the difference and say Texas is 30% Boomer and older as a nice round number.

So if Texas votes Republican in 2020 it is not just the old's fault.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=CF

 

I fully expect Texas to count the olds votes long after they're deceased due to their brain function remaining unchanged. 

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17 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m still expecting a red Texas in 2020 and a solidly purple Texas in 2024. A lot of olds will die off between now and 2024. 

 

Another interesting thing, Generation Z is overwhelmingly urban / suburb. Hardly any generation Z kids live in the rural areas. That’s another bad sign long term for repubs.

This is where I am especially depending on the dem nominee. Warren or Bernie would probably drive Texas back to 2016 if not 2012 numbers. 

If and when Texas goes blue, it will be interesting to see which gop pols switch sides like we saw in the 80s.  Except then it was dem to gop. Perry, Gramm, etc. 

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It is not a side switching issue. It is a matter of millenials and Gen Zs showing up to vote, particularly the Latinos within those groups.

Warren and Bernie have been a lot more effective reaching the younger generations than Biden. I agree that Biden would be a disaster for Democrats chances in Texas, but not Warren.

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18 minutes ago, RayDog said:

It is not a side switching issue. It is a matter of millenials and Gen Zs showing up to vote, particularly the Latinos within those groups.

Warren and Bernie have been a lot more effective reaching the younger generations than Biden. I agree that Biden would be a disaster for Democrats chances in Texas, but not Warren.

Biden can win the Midwest tho.

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1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

Biden can win the Midwest tho.

At this point whoever wins the nomination can win the Midwest. It should not be difficult for a Democrat nominee to win states where Trump is -8 or worse.

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12 hours ago, RayDog said:

It is not a side switching issue. It is a matter of millenials and Gen Zs showing up to vote, particularly the Latinos within those groups.

Warren and Bernie have been a lot more effective reaching the younger generations than Biden. I agree that Biden would be a disaster for Democrats chances in Texas, but not Warren.

I didn’t mean people switching sides would turn Texas blue, I meant that some politicians would switch sides AFTER Texas turns blue.

But disagree that Biden would be a disaster for Dems chances in Texas. The general election fight won’t involve motivating people that hate trump and his policies. Those people are voting for the dem candidate under all circumstances. The fight is over the people in the middle. Biden is a safe choice for them.

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I didn’t mean people switching sides would turn Texas blue, I meant that some politicians would switch sides AFTER Texas turns blue.

But disagree that Biden would be a disaster for Dems chances in Texas. The general election fight won’t involve motivating people that hate trump and his policies. Those people are voting for the dem candidate under all circumstances. The fight is over the people in the middle. Biden is a safe choice for them.

You are wrong on both counts. There are lots of people who dislike Trump who will need a little extra nudge to vote. That is the number one key to winning the election in 2020 per Dr. Bitecofer and I agree with her analysis.

Secondly, winning the middle is seldom the winning strategy for Democrats. Races are won by getting the base and the left to vote. Hillary lost in part because the left stayed home.

Republicans know they win by mobilizing the far right. Democrats have been conned into thinking they need to win from the middle.

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Quote

Sullivan emphasized that he thought the most damning part of the tape was the alleged quid pro quo. Bonnen, Sullivan said, "offered to take an official government action in exchange if I would just go after his political foes."

why i never!

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13 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

why i never!

And these same people are ride-or-die with Trump.

If you're looking for principles, keep on walking past that door that says "GOP" -- there ain't any in there.

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It's not just that Bonnen solicited a bribe.  It's that he shows the corrupt intent when he says "if you need some primaries to fight in, I will leave and Dustin will tell you some we'd love if you fought in."  That shows that he's trying to build in some separation where there really is none.

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Amid laughs, Bonnen said, ‘Here’s what I won’t do. I’ll do what [Lt. Gov. Dan] Patrick did — and I’ll take Braddock off” the House floor, referring to Scott Braddock, a reporter for the Capitol insider publication Quorum Report.

 

The speaker said state Rep. Jon Rosenthal, a Houston Democrat, “makes my skin crawl” and is “a piece of shit.” Bonnen, after saying he's"begging this is all confidential," then recounted a meeting with the freshman, after which he asked his chief of staff, Gavin Massingill, what he thought about the new House member.

“Massingill said it best,” Bonnen recalled. “Well, his wife’s gonna be really pissed when she learns he’s gay.”

The room dissolved in laughter before Bonnen turned to discuss other members of the lower chamber’s minority party.

"We've got Michelle Beckley, who's vile," he said, referring to the freshman Democrat from Carrollton who unseated a Republican in 2018. He exhorted Sullivan to help target these Democrats in competitive districts.

Clardy's the ringleader of all opposition," Burrows tells Sullivan, referring to state Rep. Travis Clardy, R-Nacogdoches. "We would be thrilled to see Clardy, somebody else, come back in that district."

In addition to Parker and Parker, the members mentioned are Steve Allison of San Antonio, Trent Ashby of Lufkin, Ernest Bailes of Shepherd, Keith Bell of Forney, Drew Darby of San Angelo, Kyle Kacal of College Station, Stan Lambert of Abilene, John Raney of College Station and Phil Stephenson of Wharton. All are Republicans.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

“Massingill said it best,” Bonnen recalled. “Well, his wife’s gonna be really pissed when she learns he’s gay.”

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Sullivan wants a different Speaker...somebody farther to the right?

Does anyone think the Texas Democratic Party can actually use this to their advantage to pick up seats?

The moderate Republicans that were listed for targeting aren’t going to abandon the GOP and they can’t be expected to support Bonnen after this.

If Bonnen loses the Speaker position, does the Speakership ultimately go to someone more aligned with Sullivan?

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1 minute ago, swraith said:

If Bonnen loses the Speaker position, does the Speakership ultimately go to someone more aligned with Sullivan?

That's clearly Sullivan's play.

Whether it works depends on the outcome of the 2020 elections.

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The sad thing is that Bonnen did a pretty good job as speaker.  

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15 minutes ago, WBT said:

The sad thing is that Bonnen did a pretty good job as speaker.  

He did.  But he sure did a poor job of recognizing the snake handing him this apple.

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Bonnen is an idiot but was our best bet as speaker until the Dems take over. This is bad news IMO. Just imagine if we have somebody more aligned with empower Texans or Dan Patrick running the house. Straus and Bonnen have been the only somewhat sane voice in leadership.

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2 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Bonnen is an idiot but was our best bet as speaker until the Dems take over. This is bad news IMO. Just imagine if we have somebody more aligned with empower Texans or Dan Patrick running the house. Straus and Bonnen have been the only somewhat sane voice in leadership.

A part of me says they aren't stupid to put somebody in who is aligned with Dan Patrick at a time when Trump is hurting the brand and the state is seeing a lot of changes that favor the Dems.

But then I remember it's the Texas GOP in 2019 we are talking about, and they are that fucking stupid.

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If given the chance...the hard right GOP (not the business wing) would happily install Dan Patrick’s clone as Speaker of the House.

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8 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

What does that even mean?

The Texas GOP has been at war with local governments around the state the past few sessions, doing their damndest to erode local control and home-rule through the elimination of ordinances and such (tree ordinances, drilling in city limits/ETJs, plastic bags, zoning, etc.)

Edited by bolverk
home-rule is the more technical, legal verbiage in Texas

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24 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

What does that even mean?

Fracking and protecting developers. Denton had their regulations over thrown concerning fracking. Tree ordinances are on the block. Who gives a flying fuck about a hundred year old oak? That shit costs money to keep. Bulldoze that fucker down and plant new ones. Keeping the trees costs money, planting new ones makes money. Tree ordinances be damned. You want to pollard your oak trees (pollard, cut back to a stubs and force them back to that point for years). Who fucking cares if they were fully mature trees and created shade? Nobody could see the building from the highway, that's what's important. Being seen. Not those stupid trees. 

How many other county and city regs do you think the GOP would like to do away with?

Edited by cactusflinthead

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oh look we made the WaPo

“I have repeatedly called for the recording to be released because it will be immediately clear that no laws were broken. This was nothing more than a political discussion — the problem is that I had it with that guy,” Bonnen wrote. “My colleagues have always deserved the facts and context this recording provides, and with clear evidence now disproving allegations of criminal wrongdoing, the House can finally move on.

----

Beckley, who was mentioned at least seven times in the meeting, said Tuesday that Bonnen must resign. Beckley defeated GOP Rep. Ron Simmons in 2018, a year that saw Texas Democrats pick up 12 seats from Republicans. It was indicative of a continued shift since 2010, when Republicans earned 101 out of 150 House seats for a commanding supermajority.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/10/15/gop-lawmaker-says-trump-is-killing-us-ahead-elections-secretly-recorded-audio/

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7 hours ago, swraith said:

If given the chance...the hard right GOP (not the business wing) would happily install Dan Patrick’s clone as Speaker of the House.

What a fucking nightmare that would be for the 70% of Texans who aren’t right wing nut job idiots.

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I had a thread on my friend Donna Imam, who is running in the (D) primary for TX31, the seat that John Carter (R) currently holds.  There were originally about 8 candidates in the (D) primary, now it's down to about 3 who are viable.  Donna led the field for fundraising and public events in Q3.

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On 10/16/2019 at 9:59 AM, Horn of Gabriel said:

I had a thread on my friend Donna Imam, who is running in the (D) primary for TX31, the seat that John Carter (R) currently holds.  There were originally about 8 candidates in the (D) primary, now it's down to about 3 who are viable.  Donna led the field for fundraising and public events in Q3.

Are Omar Kadir and Christine Mann the other two? Those are the only 3 I've head of. 

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I believe that there are enough Dems now that it will have to be a moderate.  They can't ram a Tea Party nut through because they won't have enough votes.

Edited by kevwun

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If you are, or have ever been, an active democrat and you live in Texas you need to be doing everything, I mean everything in your power to focus on the Texas House. I am not even joking. 

You need to be recruiting the best, engaged and respected local candidates. You need to be engaging all the people motivated by Trump to turn their energy to a race here in Texas you can have major impact on. 

I don't know how to be clearer. Democrats can win control of the Texas house thanks to Empower Texans, and you need to not look back and go get it done in the suburban districts. 

Realize that because of Trump nationally, and now this dumb stuff state-wide, that Democrats can turn one chamber Blue by focuses on winning over engaged Texas moderates and establishment GOP types. There is tons of this. 

Bonnen, MQS both realized this as a threat, which is why Bonnen was dumb enough to have this meeting. The removal of straight party ticket voting, plus the blind loyalty to the President by a certain subset of voters will give smart Democratic candidates massive opportunities to win state house seats. 

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