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Patrick Bateman

2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don

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6 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

are there really that many of those people at this point or is this yet another boogieman? 

Could be another bogeyman, just makes me nervous.

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57 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I think Wisconsin is trending towards Ohio, with Pa at the tipping point and Michigan not far behind. Unless the Democratic party radically changes their strategy towards working class economic concerns in the next four years the future of the coalition will need to run through Texas and the Southwest, with a southeastern beachhead in Ga and Florida as the new Pennsylvania. 

Democrats should continue to dominate the urban and educated areas.  So if Philadelphia and Pittsburgh grow, the gradual migration of the working class whites to the GOP should be more than offset.  Same in MN (Minneapolis), MI (Detroit, although there’s risk there), and possibly OH (although as we’ve seen the urban areas haven’t been strong enough and may not be anytime soon).  I agree Wisconsin is at risk of becoming a safe red state by 2028, as Ohio is.  But I don’t think Michigan and PA will follow.  
 

Once Texas turns, its probably over for at least 12 years.  Anyone would be happy to trade Wisconsin for Texas.

I don’t know what to expect in Florida.  

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9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Whoosh, you really missed the point. It makes me laugh when progressives try to excuse broad spectrum failure (marketing, policy, compassion, imagination) with a policy debate, like it's the customer's fault for not buying. Trump speaks to their pain and their humiliation effectively. Democrats don't. Let me give you an example

I used to do a lot of work with community financial institutions all across the country, which took me to a lot of second and third tier places.  In about 2012 I went to a credit union in Pennsylvania, literally next door to a slag heap that had been there for years. It was the employee credit union of a company that had been the biggest employer in town until they shut down and moved away, and laid off almost everybody. The main strategic challenges facing the credit union were raising deposits to lend out, and members dying off.  

Now this is a union town that ALWAYS  voted D. So imagine you live in that town, and you are watching your community die, while the people who you voted for either didn't help or actively ignored your concerns and seem to even enable the problem. And they seem to increasingly associate themselves and raise a lot of money from the people living that good life on TV that you seem to slip further away from every day.

And here comes Trump, and he says "The system is rigged. You got fucked over. And I'm going to humiliate and hurt the bastards who did this to you." 
You know what? He's not wrong. The game was rigged. They did get fucked over. And for all of his lies and bullshit and incompetence, the core of truth with Donald Trump is a promise kept: he makes the winners of the new economy feel bad. And that's why you would vote for him even today, because this town flipped.  

So you're asking me who makes things better? You're basically saying that the people who vote for Trump voted against you because they are stupid and racist. And they hear you. They know who he is and that he won't make their lives better. But they don't think you will either, and they are sending Trump to fuck you up. 

Lot of truth in this post. 
 

The problem for trump is despite exactly what you describe, however these places are dying, which of course means less votes. That’s why trump is hammering his suburbs theme so hard. Even in Pennsylvania, the suburbs are not dying. That’s where he’s losing. 

Edited by JimmyJames

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13 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Democrats should continue to dominate the urban and educated areas.  So if Philadelphia and Pittsburgh grow, the gradual migration of the working class whites to the GOP should be more than offset.  Same in MN (Minneapolis), MI (Detroit, although there’s risk there), and possibly OH (although as we’ve seen the urban areas haven’t been strong enough and may not be anytime soon).  I agree Wisconsin is at risk of becoming a safe red state by 2028, as Ohio is.  But I don’t think Michigan and PA will follow.  
 

Once Texas turns, its probably over for at least 12 years.  Anyone would be happy to trade Wisconsin for Texas.

I don’t know what to expect in Florida.  

 

7 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Lot of truth in this post. 
 

The problem for trump is despite exactly what you describe, however these places are dying, which of course means less votes. That’s why trump is hammering his suburbs theme so hard. Even in Pennsylvania, the suburbs are not dying. That’s where he’s losing. 

I broadly agree with both of these but here's the thing. We're not talking about the "white working class". That's not a real thing anymore, because they aren't really working in a way that keeps them secure and whole. If anything they are the insecure-class. We're talking about people I call the "left-behinds" who have declining upward economic opportunity and there are a LOT of those, and it's a growing number. The effect is just blunted in in big cities because the left behinds have a front row seat to economic growth, even if they are not benefitting from it.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

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Whoosh, you really missed the point. It makes me laugh when progressives try to excuse broad spectrum failure (marketing, policy, compassion, imagination) with a policy debate, like it's the customer's fault for not buying. Trump speaks to their pain and their humiliation effectively. Democrats don't. Let me give you an example

I used to do a lot of work with community financial institutions all across the country, which took me to a lot of second and third tier places.  In about 2012 I went to a credit union in Pennsylvania, literally next door to a slag heap that had been there for years. It was the employee credit union of a company that had been the biggest employer in town until they shut down and moved away, and laid off almost everybody. The main strategic challenges facing the credit union were raising deposits to lend out, and members dying off.  

Now this is a union town that ALWAYS  voted D. So imagine you live in that town, and you are watching your community die, while the people who you voted for either didn't help or actively ignored your concerns and seem to even enable the problem. And they seem to increasingly associate themselves and raise a lot of money from the people living that good life on TV that you seem to slip further away from every day.

And here comes Trump, and he says "The system is rigged. You got fucked over. And I'm going to humiliate and hurt the bastards who did this to you." 
You know what? He's not wrong. The game was rigged. They did get fucked over. And for all of his lies and bullshit and incompetence, the core of truth with Donald Trump is a promise kept: he makes the winners of the new economy feel bad. And that's why you would vote for him even today, because this town flipped.  

So you're asking me who makes things better? You're basically saying that the people who vote for Trump voted against you because they are stupid and racist. And they hear you. They know who he is and that he won't make their lives better. But they don't think you will either, and they are sending Trump to fuck you up. 

Short version: a huge chunk of Americans (I say 40%+) has completely given up on their lives getting better. The only thing that they hope for is that the people who have done better than they have are made to suffer. And that’s Trump’s entire brand - “I’ll hurt the other guy...FOR YOU.”

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29 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Whoosh, you really missed the point. It makes me laugh when progressives try to excuse broad spectrum failure (marketing, policy, compassion, imagination) with a policy debate, like it's the customer's fault for not buying. Trump speaks to their pain and their humiliation effectively. Democrats don't. Let me give you an example

I used to do a lot of work with community financial institutions all across the country, which took me to a lot of second and third tier places.  In about 2012 I went to a credit union in Pennsylvania, literally next door to a slag heap that had been there for years. It was the employee credit union of a company that had been the biggest employer in town until they shut down and moved away, and laid off almost everybody. The main strategic challenges facing the credit union were raising deposits to lend out, and members dying off.  

Now this is a union town that ALWAYS  voted D. So imagine you live in that town, and you are watching your community die, while the people who you voted for either didn't help or actively ignored your concerns and seem to even enable the problem. And they seem to increasingly associate themselves and raise a lot of money from the people living that good life on TV that you seem to slip further away from every day.

And here comes Trump, and he says "The system is rigged. You got fucked over. And I'm going to humiliate and hurt the bastards who did this to you." 
You know what? He's not wrong. The game was rigged. They did get fucked over. And for all of his lies and bullshit and incompetence, the core of truth with Donald Trump is a promise kept: he makes the winners of the new economy feel bad. And that's why you would vote for him even today, because this town flipped.  

So you're asking me who makes things better? You're basically saying that the people who vote for Trump voted against you because they are stupid and racist. And they hear you. They know who he is and that he won't make their lives better. But they don't think you will either, and they are sending Trump to fuck you up. 

My post was responding to your claim that the Democrat's need to "radically change their strategy towards working class economic concerns" or lose the states forever. Trump addresses those concerns by creating a bogeyman and pointing at him as the reason for all your problems. There is no actual solution as you note, that credit union is never coming back, the mill jobs are never coming back. The Democratic vote in those rural areas is gone, period. 

And that's okay, the urban areas are the focus of the Democratic messaging, and they actually have an economic future with population growth. That's why trump's doing his whole scare the housewife bit. The dems are not going to start blaming everyone else just to get rural votes. What the fuck do you want them to do? Tell thousands of lies about bringing back imaginary jobs? Coal to power every home? 

It's really a no win situation for them because the only actual solution is social services, healthcare, education, and economic support to these depressed areas. But that's all bad communist libtard shit now thanks to the republicans. 

You're also really discounting the racial/other aspect of this if you really believe it's all about jobs. Trump has been cultivating that shit for almost a decade now. 

Edited by totallynotabuttpirate

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5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

 

I broadly agree with both of these but here's the thing. We're not talking about the "white working class". That's not a real thing anymore, because they aren't really working in a way that keeps them secure and whole. If anything they are the insecure-class. We're talking about people I call the "left-behinds" who have declining upward economic opportunity and there are a LOT of those, and it's a growing number. The effect is just blunted in in big cities because the left behinds have a front row seat to economic growth, even if they are not benefitting from it.

Stop a second and think about the Wild Wonderful Whites of WV. One of the brothers got out. You don't have to live near the slag heap. I'm not anywhere near the 1%, but I'm way better off than what I would make in a rural area of Texas. 

Who has been in favor of raising the minimum wage? It ain't the Republicans. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Short version: a huge chunk of Americans (I say 40%+) has completely given up on their lives getting better. The only thing that they hope for is that the people who have done better than they have are made to suffer. And that’s Trump’s entire brand - “I’ll hurt the other guy...FOR YOU.”

Serious question. Can you blame them? 

6 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

My post was responding to your claim that the Democrat's need to "radically change their strategy towards working class economic concerns" or lose the states forever. Trump addresses those concerns by creating a bogeyman and pointing at him as the reason for all your problems. There is no actual solution as you note, that credit union is never coming back, the mill jobs are never coming back. The Democratic vote in those rural areas is gone, period. 

And that's okay, the urban areas are the focus of the Democratic messaging, and they actually have an economic future with population growth. That's why trump's doing his whole scare the housewife bit. The dems are not going to start blaming everyone else just to get rural votes. What the fuck do you want them to do? Tell thousands of lies about bringing back imaginary jobs? Coal to power every home? 

You're also really discounting the racial/other aspect of this if you really believe it's all about jobs. Trump has been cultivating that shit for almost a decade now. 

I never said jobs. I said pain and humiliation. Reading is fundamental. 

4 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Stop a second and think about the Wild Wonderful Whites of WV. One of the brothers got out. You don't have to live near the slag heap. I'm not anywhere near the 1%, but I'm way better off than what I would make in a rural area of Texas. 

Who has been in favor of raising the minimum wage? It ain't the Republicans. 

 

Two things:
1) Democrats have done an astoundingly shitty job of maintaining the minimum wage, in part because it was easy to sacrifice for other priorities, so they have. 
2) This isn't about the minimum wage. Nobody aspires to the minimum wage and the people Democrats have lost weren't minimum wage workers.  That's also why the the middle class in this country is so despondent: they are seeing the people at the top take a larger and larger share of the productivity generated by the economy and Democrats answer is to raise the minimum wage a little maybe? Come on, man. 

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1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I never said jobs. I said pain and humiliation. Reading is fundamental. 

LMAO, so the whole point of your little soapbox is that Democrats don't need to address the actual economic concerns of the rural voter, just their pain and humiliation? That's some good shit my man! 

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36 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Once Texas turns, its probably over for at least 12 years.  Anyone would be happy to trade Wisconsin for Texas.

Never underestimate the ability of a failed institution like the Texas Democratic Party to fail. It's not what they do. It's what they are. 

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2 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

LMAO, so the whole point of your little soapbox is that Democrats don't need to address the actual economic concerns of the rural voter, just their pain and humiliation? That's some good shit my man! 

No, they have to do both. Right now they do neither. And what you missed is that I'm not just talking about "rural" voters, either. 

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2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

No, they have to do both. Right now they do neither. And what you missed is that I'm not just talking about "rural" voters, either. 

Yea, reading is definitely fundamental and my point that you missed (since you like saying it so much lol) is that they are trying to do both. But it's very difficult, if not impossible, without lying all the time and using the 'other' to stoke a race and culture war to heal the "humiliation and pain" of people. 

You've written a lot of words but said effectively nothing about what dems can actually do without using the same deplorable tactics as Trump, Hitler, every other dictator etc....

I think the biggest problem with the Dems is that they're pussies when it comes to attacking the Reps. They don't have to stoop to trump's level, just get a little dirty every now and then. 

 

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29 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

You're also really discounting the racial/other aspect of this if you really believe it's all about jobs. Trump has been cultivating that shit for almost a decade now. 

And one more thing. You can't tease out race from class or race and class from economic concerns, or vice-versa.  Race and class are in the air we breath and the food we eat. The idea that older white rust belt voters flipped to trump because of racism and not class anxiety is right there with the idea that they voted for Trump because they are too stupid to know what's good for them: both shining examples of progressives being terrible at politics because they have the privilege of being insulated from the outcome either way. 

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41 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Short version: a huge chunk of Americans (I say 40%+) has completely given up on their lives getting better. The only thing that they hope for is that the people who have done better than they have are made to suffer. And that’s Trump’s entire brand - “I’ll hurt the other guy...FOR YOU.”

Yeah, except their actual hope is to make people who have done worse suffer, to feel better about themselves.  See how they  cheer on immigrant detention, child separation, the Muslim ban, killing protestors, etc.  While tax breaks are going to billionaires.

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1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

And one more thing. You can't tease out race from class or race and class from economic concerns, or vice-versa.  Race and class are in the air we breath and the food we eat. The idea that older white rust belt voters flipped to trump because of racism and not class anxiety is right there with the idea that they voted for Trump because they are too stupid to know what's good for them: both shining examples of progressives being terrible at politics because they have the privilege of being insulated from the outcome either way. 

Did you not read what I wrote? I used the word "aspect", not "sole reason". It's definitely a significant contributing factor and to try and explain it away, is just on another level of stupid. 

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24 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

LMAO, so the whole point of your little soapbox is that Democrats don't need to address the actual economic concerns of the rural voter, just their pain and humiliation? That's some good shit my man! 

I think addressing people’s pain and humiliation is actually pretty important. I’d say it’s part of Biden’s appeal; it was part of Bill Clinton’s too. 

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11 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Yea, reading is definitely fundamental and my point that you missed (since you like saying it so much lol) is that they are trying to do both. But it's very difficult, if not impossible, without lying all the time and using the 'other' to stoke a race and culture war to heal the "humiliation and pain" of people. 

You've written a lot of words but said effectively nothing about what dems can actually do without using the same deplorable tactics as Trump, Hitler, every other dictator etc....

I think the biggest problem with the Dems is that they're pussies when it comes to attacking the Reps. They don't have to stoop to trump's level, just get a little dirty every now and then. 

 

You mean like the the basics of sales and marketing? The four P's aren't exactly some occult secret. Let's do Texas. 
Product - recruit a diverse slate of candidates without litmus tests of any kind, the bench is shit
Place - The strategy for flipping a place like Texas runs through the State commissions statewide, legislative races in big cities and county commissions everywhere else.  Texas Democrats keep waiting for dream tickets to drag everyone across the line and that's fucking stupid.
Promotion - How about regionally relevant appeal rather than defaulting to national messaging that's optimized for the east coast?
Price - We ask for people to give up things too often. To win Texas Democrats need to promise to deliver something tangible. 

That's not dictator stuff. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

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3 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

Yeah, except their actual hope is to make people who have done worse suffer, to feel better about themselves.  See how they  cheer on immigrant detention, child separation, the Muslim ban, killing protestors, etc.  While tax breaks are going to billionaires.

It really doesn't matter -- the only thing that brings them joy is other people's pain, and when you elect a bully to deliver that, of course he's going to pick on the weak.

The Trump presidency was never more perfectly captured than in the single lament from a supporter during the 2019 govt shutdown:

Quote

“I voted for him, and he’s the one who’s doing this,” Crystal Minton told The New York Times in an article published Monday. “I thought he was going to do good things. He’s not hurting the people he needs to be hurting.”

To flip that around to an accurate slogan for the regime: "Trump -- he hurts the people who need to be hurting!"

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Sigh. I can tell you the country won't heal without empathy, sympathy, and actually listening to people and addressing problems. And most importantly, education, and programs that actually help. How do you educate people that these programs aren't socialist bullshit? How do you get them to consider ideas they want to reject out of hand? Education. How do you get people to consider a different outlook towards education and other things? You have to get them to sit at the table. How do you do that? By listening and acting like you give a fuck. 

Winning the election is winning the election. But healing this country is decades of work and it will require discomfort on BOTH sides of partisanship. Pointing a finger at race war or even class war is simplistic. And bickering over what the root cause(s) are to the problem doesn't really fucking matter either. Leading is building a consensus, and building a consensus requires compromise and some people changing their minds. And that requires someone willing to listen to you, earnestly. And that requires trust, and vulnerability. And that doesn't happen with two sides hating one another and pissing in their face as likely as shaking a hand and listening. 

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1 hour ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Poor republican's are just temporarily poor. That's why they only support policies and tax cuts that benefit the rich, because they'll be there one day. And if they don't become rich, it's because of those other people who are different than them. Used to be the jews, now it's the darkies. 

This is the bottom line for poor Rs.  I can't say it better than this.  I saw this happen in real life the other day.  

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Here's a decent paper that deals with some of what I'm talking about:

More than a Rural Revolt: Landscapes of Despair and the 2016 Presidential Election

 

Quote

Work has historically been about more than a paycheck in the U.S. American identities are wrapped up in our jobs. But the U.S. working-class (people without a college degree, people who work in blue-collar jobs) regularly receive the message that their work is not important and that they are irrelevant and disposable. That message is delivered through stagnant wages, declining health and retirement benefits, government safety-net programs for which they do not qualify but for which they pay taxes, and the seemingly ubiquitous message (mostly from Democrats) that success means graduating from college. Of course, these frustrations are not new, nor are they unique to the U.S.; scholars have long noted disaffection with political elites, perceived threats to a “place-rooted way of life” (Woods et al. 2012:567), and attraction to populist politics among some rural residents (especially among whites) in both the U.S. (Dyer 1998; Isenberg 2017; Kimmel and Ferber 2000; Stock 1997) and abroad (Alba and Foner, forthcoming; Pritchard and McManus 2000; Strijker et al. 2015; Woods et al. 2012). One interpretation is that Trump capitalized on and exploited white working-class frustrations and anxieties in these ‘landscapes of despair.’ His anti-free trade message for example, likely resonated with some voters who saw manufacturing plants shut down and saw low-wage service jobs replace the better paying jobs previously available to their parents and grandparents. Growing racial and ethnic diversity in these same places may have contributed to the perception among working-class whites (however inaccurate) that immigration was at least partly to blame for their woes (Alba and Foner, forthcoming).

But another equally-likely interpretation is that apathy, dislike, or ambivalence about Hillary Clinton in these places, paired with Democrats’ arrogance about the impermeable “big blue wall”, may have led some potential voters who would have supported a different Democratic candidate who emphasized working-class issues to not vote at all. When you’re driving by shuttered factories with boarded up windows, watching nightly news reports about drug overdoses, and seeing more of your neighbors sign up for disability instead of working, the message that “America is great already” simply does not jibe with your own reality.

 

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

It really doesn't matter -- the only thing that brings them joy is other people's pain

And, by the way...before we condemn that is insanely irrational, I'll observe that pretty much ALL of us have been there in some way or another.  Maybe it was a young romantic relationship, and your gal hooked up with your best friend.  A POSITIVE step would be to either cure the rift, and heal the relationship with your gal and friend, or get past it and realize they both did you a favor.  Did you do that?  Not right away, I'm sure of it.  Instead, you were in pain.....and you wanted THEM to feel pain.  So you did whatever you could to make them suffer.  Tossed her shit out on the yard and pissed on it, ended your friendship with your buddy, drank all the good beer he left in your fridge, whatever.

"My life sucks, so FUCK YOU!" is a very, very human reaction.  We've all had it.  And we've all been vulnerable to the appeal of that message.  Today, 40%+ of America is on board with it.  They feel the way they feel.  Some of the reasons for that may be contemptible, but that doesn't change where they are.

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12 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

You mean like the the basics of sales and marketing? The four P's aren't exactly some occult secret. Let's do Texas. 
Product - recruit a diverse slate of candidates without litmus tests of any kind, the bench is shit
Place - The strategy for flipping a place like Texas runs through the State commissions statewide, legislative races in big cities and county commissions everywhere else.  Texas Democrats keep waiting for dream tickets to drag everyone across the line and that's fucking stupid.
Promotion - How about regionally relevant appeal rather than defaulting to national messaging that's optimized for the east coast?
Price - We ask for people to give up things too often. To win Texas Democrats need to promise to deliver something tangible. 

That's not dictator stuff. 

Wow, so much insight and original ideas!!! Why haven't they thought of that already? We should also add blowjobs for every voter. 

Jesus christ, the Dems are trying to do all of those things. This isn't fucking unicorn land were everything is perfect and a collective intelligence makes the perfect decision every time. The Dem candidate's have been improving lately. You can't manufacture the perfect Texas candidate in a lab. 

And it's also hard to make headway when your opponents literally make a living using the most powerful political tool, fear. Joe Biden's blacks are going to come into your suburb and take your guns and rape your women. 

So yea, "Dems suck because they aren't all awesome and perfect like they should be". 

Edited by totallynotabuttpirate

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1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

You're basically saying that the people who vote for Trump voted against you because they are stupid and racist. And they hear you. They know who he is and that he won't make their lives better. But they don't think you will either, and they are sending Trump to fuck you up. 

That's all well and good, but that isn't an excuse to completely turn away from an objective reality and embrace the worst of humanity.  There has to be some comeuppance.

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Forgot to add that it's a chicken or egg question for Dem candidates in Texas. They will likely get better candidates as the state moves more democratic. But it's still a big risk for a rising star to hitch his/her wagon on winning a statewide office in Texas. An Obama-level candidate is not walking out of a door in Houston. 

Of course, if they get better candidates, it will increase the chances of winning. 

Edited by totallynotabuttpirate

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1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

And what kind of comeuppance are you looking for her? Perhaps a scarlet T sewn into their clothes? Prison time? maybe up their taxes?

Let me offer you a different way to look at it: Losing the election handily and having to suffer that humiliation, then wrestle with the reality that it was or wasn't rigged, is about the only comeuppance that they can and should receive. And before you say anything let me tell you why: Because the rest of America, fuck America as a whole, literally cannot afford anymore. Because the next step in the path you're walking down is civil unrest, or war. Which means economic dolldrums. Worldwide consequences. The better, the BEST, the ONLY option is to move on and slowly try to re-tether people to reality, to show that you're now actually an intellectual boogie man, and you start fixing problems. You start making life better. You fix the guardrails that are perilously loose or untethered in our democracy. You educate. You stop pushing for reasons for partisanship or divide. Because if you don't, all you're doing is just ensuring that Trump's damage continues to fester and rot this country. 

Ok fine.  +rep

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50 days out.  The following will happen. Voter turnout increases at all age groups over 2016, with increase inverse to age.  Yoot vote exceeds 58%. Trump gets no Clinton states (gimme). Biden gets exactly 334 EVs. Trump concedes by 11 p.m. eastern.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Sigh. I can tell you the country won't heal without empathy, sympathy, and actually listening to people and addressing problems. And most importantly, education, and programs that actually help. How do you educate people that these programs aren't socialist bullshit? How do you get them to consider ideas they want to reject out of hand? Education. How do you get people to consider a different outlook towards education and other things? You have to get them to sit at the table. How do you do that? By listening and acting like you give a fuck. 

Winning the election is winning the election. But healing this country is decades of work and it will require discomfort on BOTH sides of partisanship. Pointing a finger at race war or even class war is simplistic. And bickering over what the root cause(s) are to the problem doesn't really fucking matter either. Leading is building a consensus, and building a consensus requires compromise and some people changing their minds. And that requires someone willing to listen to you, earnestly. And that requires trust, and vulnerability. And that doesn't happen with two sides hating one another and pissing in their face as likely as shaking a hand and listening. 

Fantastic post.  Every brown child tossed in a cage is a human being -- their lives and dignity matter.  And every Pennsylvanian who lives in the failed town with a slag heap and no jobs is a human being -- their lives and dignity matter.  Just being told, with some measure of sincerity, that you are heard, and that you matter, goes a long damned way.  It opens a meaningful conversation, with some measure of trust.  If we tell them the truth - that we care about every American, and we want to work to provide a meaningful and secure future for them and their children....but it's going to take all of us working together, and it's going to take some time, but we're going to start TODAY, that means something.

But as for healing this country.... goddamn, we have a long road ahead of us.  It's like any relationship -- what took decades to be built can be horrifically damaged in a short period of time.  Maybe you were a good husband for 20 years.  But over the last 5, you've utterly neglected your wife, and treated her with disdain.  Then one weekend, she finds out about your affair, she yells at you about it, and you call her a C-word and slap her in anger.

20 years to build that relationship.  Damage in a single weekend that will take decades to heal, if it can heal at all.  That's where we are.  We need to care about each other.  We need to hold the space for everyone to feel the way they do -- to be angry, to be frustrated, to feel unheard and neglected.  And then slowly build real and meaningful consensus about the simplest of things -- don't we want everyone to have a future with dignity and security?  Don't we want everyone to have a shot at a decent education and honorable work to follow?  And then, we have to admit and confront our own failings.  We're not in the shit because a bunch of mexicans came here to hang sheetrock; we're not in the shit because some black people sell drugs; we're not in the shit because there are some muslim terrorists.  We're in the shit because of things we've done to ourselves, and things we've failed to do to plan for and build a prosperous future.

We're all in this together.  We all need to work together to get out of it.  Community matters.  Empathy matters.

Just now, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Wow, so much insight and original ideas!!! Why haven't they thought of that already? We should also add blowjobs for every voter. 

Jesus christ, the Dems are trying to do all of those things. This isn't fucking unicorn land were everything is perfect and a collective intelligence makes the perfect decision every time. The Dem candidate's have been improving lately. You can't manufacture the perfect Texas candidate in a lab. 

And it's also hard to make headway when your opponents literally make a living using the most powerful political tool, fear. Joe Biden's blacks are going to come into your suburb and take your guns and rape your women. 

So yea, Dems suck because they aren't all awesome and perfect like they should be". 

Really, they've just started to try.  They are like an expansion club -- they've now participated in a draft, and picked up a few decent signings.  That's great, at least they are in the game now.  But truly, that has just happened in the last couple of years. Ironically, Trump and Trumpism will likely end up being the impetus for a reborn Texas Democratic party, more than any other factor.

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Really, they've just started to try.  They are like an expansion club -- they've now participated in a draft, and picked up a few decent signings.  That's great, at least they are in the game now.  But truly, that has just happened in the last couple of years. Ironically, Trump and Trumpism will likely end up being the impetus for a reborn Texas Democratic party, more than any other factor.

Right, it's just the beginning. Free agents don't want to signup to lose all the time. It's gonna be awhile before we get real stars at the national level, not just regional champs like Beto (so far). 

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57 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Serious question. Can you blame them? 

I never said jobs. I said pain and humiliation. Reading is fundamental. 

Two things:
1) Democrats have done an astoundingly shitty job of maintaining the minimum wage, in part because it was easy to sacrifice for other priorities, so they have. 
2) This isn't about the minimum wage. Nobody aspires to the minimum wage and the people Democrats have lost weren't minimum wage workers.  That's also why the the middle class in this country is so despondent: they are seeing the people at the top take a larger and larger share of the productivity generated by the economy and Democrats answer is to raise the minimum wage a little maybe? Come on, man. 

Ok, it's the same as ever. You lift the bottom up and everything rises. Minimum wage at its inception was not that far from a living wage. You aren't going to see the middle scale rise without paying the new hires a better starting wage.That non-existent minimum wage worker lives in rural America. That person loading up your Allsups burrito is getting the absolutely lowest wage that the company can get away with. And because that's depressed then everyone else is. 

It's just like when they took away horse slaughter. You might not like it, but it served as a floor. Take it away and the bottom falls out of the market. Wages have been suppressed for years. Again, it's not the Democrats that have been actively attacking wage earners with policy. I can remember more than a few overtures to the Republicans on wages.

Shot down in flames every time.

Edited by cactusflinthead

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8 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

50 days out.  The following will happen. Voter turnout increases at all age groups over 2016, with increase inverse to age.  Yoot vote exceeds 58%. Trump gets no Clinton states (gimme). Biden gets exactly 334 EVs. Trump concedes by 11 p.m. eastern.

 

 

trump won't concede....ever. 

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3 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Ok, it's the same as ever. You lift the bottom up and everything rises. Minimum wage at its inception was not that far from a living wage. You aren't going to see the middle scale rise without paying the new hires a better starting wage.That non-existent minimum wage worker lives in rural America. That person loading up your Allsups burrito is getting the absolutely lowest wage that the company can get away with. And because that's depressed then everyone else is. 

It's just like when they took away horse slaughter. You might not like it, but it served as a floor. Take it away and the bottom falls out of the market. Wages have been suppressed for years. Again, it's not the Democrats that have been actively attacking wage earners with policy. I can remember more than a few overtures to the Republicans on wages.

Shot down in flames every time.

But Democrat's haven't been 100% successful at raising the minimum wage, so therefore they are complete and utter failures. 

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6 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Right, it's just the beginning. Free agents don't want to signup to lose all the time. It's gonna be awhile before we get real stars at the national level, not just regional champs like Beto (so far). 

Correct.  That's the frustrating thing -- no matter how hard they work, it will take time.  Expansion clubs don't win the title in year 3.  They just don't.  Maybe there will be a breakout player here and there, a rookie of the year or an MVP, but as a team, it takes time to build your personnel and your system to win it all.

But it's started, and that's more than we could say even 4 years ago.

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40 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

And one more thing. You can't tease out race from class or race and class from economic concerns, or vice-versa.  Race and class are in the air we breath and the food we eat. The idea that older white rust belt voters flipped to trump because of racism and not class anxiety is right there with the idea that they voted for Trump because they are too stupid to know what's good for them: both shining examples of progressives being terrible at politics because they have the privilege of being insulated from the outcome either way. 

i think yall are both right.

trump used racism very, very fucking effectively in speaking to white workers that you describe. not only was he safe on the black issue, he was going to build a wall to keep out the mexicans from coming here and taking our jobs. i mean, he never expressed the second half of that thought out loud, but it was there, despite the fact that white blue collar american jobs aren't being taken by mexicans HERE, they are being taken by mexicans THERE, on the other side of that proposed wall. manufacturing isnt comng back, but he promised it would. now that it still hasn't, you would think that people would change their minds.

but they won't. 

however, you are also correct in that democrats need to come up with a message that's going to move my cousin moe, union truck driver guy, off the trump bandwagon and back into voting D. in your earlier post, you described my cousin moe perfectly. he's a salt of the earth big rig driver - he works hard for a hard wage. he's not really getting any richer, and he's watched his ohio river valley way of life crumble. the coal miners are all dying off, and the paint is suddenly peeling on everyone's houses. everything is shit, and he still drives that truck for stagnating wages. 

then what happens? there's a fracking discovery, and a bunch of roughnecks from texas in their goddamn dualie f-250s come into town with all their rich oil money splashing it around without a care in the world, and he's still driving that goddamn big rig, because it's all he knows. when trump says the coal mines are coming back, and make america great again, he's saying to my cousin "i'll bring back the martins ferry you grew up in and were comfortably middle class." that's very appealing. and he checks the anti-black and anti-mexican boxes as well.

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29 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Fantastic post.  Every brown child tossed in a cage is a human being -- their lives and dignity matter.  And every Pennsylvanian who lives in the failed town with a slag heap and no jobs is a human being -- their lives and dignity matter. 

I agree, obviously, but Totallynotabuttpirate from Surlyhorns believes the the second group is stupid and racist beyond redemption and are unworthy of his empathy. And he votes!

39 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Wow, so much insight and original ideas!!! Why haven't they thought of that already? We should also add blowjobs for every voter. 

Jesus christ, the Dems are trying to do all of those things.

Weird how you're indifferent to people in place-based despair they can't hope to climb out of, but sympathize with people who are paid to win but haven't once in 30 years. I don't give a fuck what they are "trying" to do. 

38 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

That's all well and good, but that isn't an excuse to completely turn away from an objective reality and embrace the worst of humanity.  There has to be some comeuppance.

They are living it. We all are.

19 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

But Democrat's haven't been 100% successful at raising the minimum wage

Or even really tried. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

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1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

They are living it. We all are.

This.  The comeuppance?  They all pulled the cord on a suicide vest.  We've all got shrapnel and burns, including them.  That's the fucking frustrating thing -- it wasn't even targeted rage, it was a suicide vest.  Blow us ALL up, fuckers!

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2 hours ago, gmr548 said:


"Biden is running ahead. No, that isn't supported by polling. There are lots of signs for Democrats in my Democratic neighborhood."

Well, god damnit, I'm sold.

 

CQR Research (B-rated by 538)

July 5th:

Eastman 50 to Bacon 49

Biden 51 to Trump 44. 

DCCC targeting (B/C)

May 10, 12

Eastman 48 to Bacon 47

Biden 52 to Trump 41

Sure, the polling is not extensive, but even skewed polling should be sufficient to understand that Biden is running ahead of Eastman in the district. 

But, please, continue to impress with your in depth analysis of "well, the Democrat House candidate didn't win in 2018, so...."

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4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I agree, obviously, but Totallynotabuttpirate from Surlyhorns believes the the second group is stupid and racist beyond redemption and are unworthy of his empathy. And he votes!

Weird how you're indifferent to people in place-based despair they can't hope to climb out of, but sympathize with people who are paid to win but haven't once in 30 years. I don't give a fuck what they are "trying" to do. 

They are living it. We all are.

Or even really tried. 

Oh boy......

Trying to have a discussion with you is like trying to fuck an angry raccoon.

Although a slow agonizing death from rabies would spare me the even worse misfortune of having to read more of your posts.

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