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Patrick Bateman

2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don

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I myself considered, but did not actually vote for, a third party candidate in 2016 because I knew Hillary was going to win, so my protest vote wouldn’t matter. I imagine there were a number similar to me.  
 

Quick scan says Gary Johnson voters were numerous enough to change AZ, FL, MI, MN, PA in 2016.
 

and that is just people that still decided to vote anyway despite it being a forgone conclusion   How many more stayed home altogether?

 

That’s not going to happen in 2020. You hold that election again right now but instead of a media narrative of it being a foregone conclusion, we take it seriously, the results change. That’s the main difference between 2020 and 2016 imo. 
 

 

addendum: this is partially trump hoisted on his own *etard. He got elected by just Having a knack for making a big scene. But his tendency for doing so means his garbage presidency has been in everyone’s face all the time.  That further ensures people are going to stay home because politics is on everyone’s mind. 

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3 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Scrambling and panicking.

You love to see it.

 

We don’t need the President to pause ads while reviewing messaging strategy.

We need to end his Presidency so there’s a strategy concerned with something other than messaging.

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13 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I myself considered, but did not actually vote for, a third party candidate in 2016 because I knew Hillary was going to win, so my protest vote wouldn’t matter. I imagine there were a number similar to me.  
 

Quick scan says Gary Johnson voters were numerous enough to change AZ, FL, MI, MN, PA in 2016.
 

and that is just people that still decided to vote anyway despite it being a forgone conclusion   How many more stayed home altogether?

 

That’s not going to happen in 2020. You hold that election again right now but instead of a media narrative of it being a foregone conclusion, we take it seriously, the results change. That’s the main difference between 2020 and 2016 imo. 
 

 

addendum: this is partially trump hoisted on his own *etard. He got elected by just Having a knack for making a big scene. But his tendency for doing so means his garbage presidency has been in everyone’s face all the time.  That further ensures people are going to stay home because politics is on everyone’s mind. 

Because of our messed up Electoral College system, I've voted 3rd party for Ralph Effin' Nader twice as the outcome of the vote in Texas has pretty much been preordained throughout my entire adulthood. That pattern of voting would quickly end if Texas ever mattered.

What happened in 2016 was that Black voters didn't turn out (ascribe whatever reasons you need here) for Hillary. It was that lower turnout in three swing states that really allowed Trump to take the trind in this country.

Sure, you can blame third party voters mathematically, but the real issue in the Midwest was an enthusiasm problem among a key constituency.

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Take nothing for granted.
"August 25, 2016 - Clinton Tops 50 Percent, Leads Trump By 10 Points, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds"
 
That kind of puts in perspective how much bigger Biden's lead is. That was Clinton's absolute apex on one poll. That's pretty much every poll for Biden over the past two months.

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Because of our messed up Electoral College system, I've voted 3rd party for Ralph Effin' Nader twice as the outcome of the vote in Texas has pretty much been preordained throughout my entire adulthood. That pattern of voting would quickly end if Texas ever mattered.
What happened in 2016 was that Black voters didn't turn out (ascribe whatever reasons you need here) for Hillary. It was that lower turnout in three swing states that really allowed Trump to take the trind in this country.
Sure, you can blame third party voters mathematically, but the real issue in the Midwest was an enthusiasm problem among a key constituency.
Not true in Pennsylvania. WI and MI are absolutely directly attributable to lower turnout in Milwaukee and Detroit, but that's not how it played out in PA. There really was a rural surge for Trump there. It's the only state where the white working class uprising narrative is really true.

Fortunately, as relatively strong as Trump is in PA, Biden counters that.

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6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Realizing their shitty ads aren’t working.

we’re almost approaching too little too late territory for these ass clowns.

Lafayette Park was where he lost legitimacy for the masses.  Peaceful protestors being jack booted thug beat into submission so Dear Leader could do a stroll over to a church he didn't go to, to hold up a book he doesn't read, to take a photo to pander to people he doesn't care about crossed the line.  There were lots of things he has done that have sucked.  On a nearly daily basis.  But that moment was what historians will write about as the beginning of the end.  

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6 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Giving up on swing states to focus on red states. Seems bad. 

Not if the focus is on functionally tossing out the votes in swing states (contesting the irregularity of the election there, getting a friendly GOP legislature to somehow hold up the votes, etc.)  He wants to be able to point at enthusiastic Trumper red state votes, and just completely disregard any votes in swing states, so he will then claim that he won both the EC AND the popular vote (if you don't count votes against you, it's easy to win the popular vote).

We aren't getting him out of the WH without the use of force.  He's fighting for his life right now, so he'll never go quietly.

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4 hours ago, bolverk said:

What happened in 2016 was that Black voters didn't turn out (ascribe whatever reasons you need here) for Hillary.

put simply, hillary thought all the black people and women who voted for obama would vote for her. they didn’t. 

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18 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Giving up on swing states to focus on red states. Seems bad. 

Yeah the quote is the spin you'd expect - "we're going to win it so why bother wasting money there?"

But everyone has Michigan at best a toss-up for Trump so this makes little sense if it's in fact true. One of the biggest reasons Trump won in 2016 was the amount of time, effort, and money he spent in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. I know Hillary never even set foot in at least one of those states (either Michigan or Wisconsin - can't remember). 

So if this is true it means their internals are most likely a lot worse than the RCP and 538 averages. 

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1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

put simply, hillary thought all the black people and women who voted for obama would vote for her. they didn’t. 

Actually they did vote for her but their votes got changed in the process to no vote. Hence the 80,000 margin of victory. Unless you believe they all voted straight party dem but then took the time to opt out of the Hillary vote. Yeah right. 

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Remember this maxim when trump claims the vote is rigged, every accusation is a confession. Manafort and the Russians stole the 2016 election. Surprised even trump himself. They weren’t dumb, they weren’t gonna tell Trump what was going on. I bet trump didn’t really want to win. 

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15 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Actually they did vote for her but their votes got changed in the process to no vote. Hence the 80,000 margin of victory. Unless you believe they all voted straight party dem but then took the time to opt out of the Hillary vote. Yeah right. 

There was no straight ticket voting in Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, nor Arizona.  Five states that Trump closely won in 2016.  There is some question around Pennsylvania but the "voting is too hard in Texas" and "straight ticket voting in too many red controlled states" is bullshit that needs to come to an end and the Democrats need to get their big kid pants on.  We're about to have three weeks, not two but three weeks, of early voting in Texas with no straight ticket option.  Time to finally treat people of color as fellow citizens in the political ecosystem instead of people the Democrats exploit every 2 or 4 years for their own purposes.  And for once in my life, I am happy to help.  Trump needs to burn in hell for all eternity.  Count me in on the matches.  

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4 minutes ago, Lobo said:

There was no straight ticket voting in Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, nor Arizona.  Five states that Trump closely won in 2016.  There is some question around Pennsylvania but the "voting is too hard in Texas" and "straight ticket voting in too many red controlled states" is bullshit that needs to come to an end and the Democrats need to get their big kid pants on.  We're about to have three weeks, not two but three weeks, of early voting in Texas with no straight ticket option.  Time to finally treat people of color as fellow citizens in the political ecosystem instead of people the Democrats exploit every 2 or 4 years for their own purposes.  And for once in my life, I am happy to help.  Trump needs to burn in hell for all eternity.  Count me in on the matches.  

Wrong. There was straight ticket voting in Michigan in 2016, as well as Pennsylvania. 

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2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Not if the focus is on functionally tossing out the votes in swing states (contesting the irregularity of the election there, getting a friendly GOP legislature to somehow hold up the votes, etc.)  He wants to be able to point at enthusiastic Trumper red state votes, and just completely disregard any votes in swing states, so he will then claim that he won both the EC AND the popular vote (if you don't count votes against you, it's easy to win the popular vote).

We aren't getting him out of the WH without the use of force.  He's fighting for his life right now, so he'll never go quietly.

This is extreme.

im quite shocked by this. Usually the GOP is known as the party who makes up conspiracy theories. There’s no way trump can pull this off and get away with it.

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12 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Wrong. There was straight ticket voting in Michigan in 2016, as well as Pennsylvania. 

I thought that court injunction didn't hold up for the 2016 election?  Makes sense either way.  Also, I never said anything about Pennsylvania. 

Straight ticketing will be even less of a factor in 2020.  

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12 hours ago, Mole said:

I can’t remember most of my login info. That’s what password managers are for.

having to remember all my passwords in my head causes me to exercise my brain - i am hoping that exercise staves off brain rot.

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13 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I thought that court injunction didn't hold up for the 2016 election?  Makes sense either way.  Also, I never said anything about Pennsylvania. 

Straight ticketing will be even less of a factor in 2020.  

The injunction allowing straight ticket voting was in place in 2016 then got overturned in 2018. 

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3 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

put simply, hillary thought all the black people and women who voted for obama would vote for her. they didn’t. 

Hope they are happy with how that worked out.

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Tomorrow is August. That means we are like 3.5 months away from the election. That seems unreal to me.

2016 election seemed like it was a campaign-fest for 18 straight months, with debates and everything. Now, here we are and covid-19 and economy and riots and peaceful protests are top of mind and the election is essentially sneaking up on us!

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I wonder what's got them optimistic about Maine.  Sara Gideon is a Bangor 10. 

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Looks like the crowd that greeted Charlie Strong post-Kansas.

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27 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

i like the one guy in the back who's like 'yeah, i'm good, just gonna hang out here by this random oscillating fan'. i mean...it IS Florida in July.😂

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Posted (edited)

Lulz Texas. 

My new favorite game. Give Trump Texas back, and also give him Michigan and Minnesota and Wisconsin and Arizona and North Carolina and Nevada... and he still loses.

Edited by Red Five

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I'm so tired of seeing Colorado and VA classified as anything but solid blue. Jesus.

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8 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Not if the focus is on functionally tossing out the votes in swing states (contesting the irregularity of the election there, getting a friendly GOP legislature to somehow hold up the votes, etc.)  He wants to be able to point at enthusiastic Trumper red state votes, and just completely disregard any votes in swing states, so he will then claim that he won both the EC AND the popular vote (if you don't count votes against you, it's easy to win the popular vote).

We aren't getting him out of the WH without the use of force.  He's fighting for his life right now, so he'll never go quietly.

You are off your meds again. None of that is going to happen. Our system is stronger than one man. 

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6 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Remember this maxim when trump claims the vote is rigged, every accusation is a confession. Manafort and the Russians stole the 2016 election. Surprised even trump himself. They weren’t dumb, they weren’t gonna tell Trump what was going on. I bet trump didn’t really want to win. 

When brisket finds his meds you need to take a double portion from him. 

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Lulz Texas. 
My new favorite game. Give Trump Texas back, and also give him Michigan and Minnesota and Wisconsin and Arizona and North Carolina and Nevada... and he still loses.

He has to win Florida in just about any scenario.

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5 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

This is extreme.

im quite shocked by this. Usually the GOP is known as the party who makes up conspiracy theories. There’s no way trump can pull this off and get away with it.

He’s been doing this off and on for 3 or 4 years now. It’s really absurd. Also, the 2018 skull fucking by the Dems (that he said the GOP would steal) hasn’t stopped this nonsense. 
it’s not just him, it’s lots of people on here. And it’s just absurd. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Horndog said:

"Trump’s recent withdrawal from the airwaves in Michigan came as his campaign shifted advertising dollars to other battlegrounds like Iowa."

 

Battlegrounds like Iowa? 2020 is a different ballgame.

What’s funny is how hard Iowa went for trump. I think it last went GOP in 84 and before that Nixon. Always in the dem column and then 2016- bam- not even close for trump. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn

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17 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I'm so tired of seeing Colorado and VA classified as anything but solid blue. Jesus.

Yep. You can add Nevada to that group as well and not even really bother to poll any of those states. 

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Wulaw, you're a decent guy. Maybe even a good dude.

But if you don't start to use the MultiQuote feature there's going to be a problem.

image.png.ab04ca575144d3be12f3178d48945c17.png

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Wulaw, you're a decent guy. Maybe even a good dude.
But if you don't start to use the MultiQuote feature there's going to be a problem.
image.png.ab04ca575144d3be12f3178d48945c17.png

He might be on Tapa - no multi quote there.

If not then no excuse. ;)

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:
You are off your meds again. None of that is going to happen. Our system is stronger than one man. 
29 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:
When brisket finds his meds you need to take a double portion from him. 
26 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:
He’s been doing this off and on for 3 or 4 years now. It’s really absurd. Also, the 2018 skull fucking by the Dems (that he said the GOP would steal) hasn’t stopped this nonsense. 
it’s not just him, it’s lots of people on here. And it’s just absurd. 
25 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:
What’s funny is how hard Iowa went for trump. I think it last went GOP in 84 and before that Nixon. Always in the dem column and then 2016- bam- not even close for trump. 
21 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:
I’ve got it 334 to 204. Final answer. 
20 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:
Yep. You can add Nevada to that group as well and not even really bother to poll any of those states. 
6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

He might be on Tapa - no multi quote there.

If not then no excuse. wink.png

Just did this with tapa. Click near the top of the post and it will select it. Then select all the ones you want to quote (in order).

Yeah, I know, charge my phone. 4d56ba41e03cad4cf738a4fd40fe0b3c.jpg

 

Edited by Huckleberry

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mpu


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