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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


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On 8/21/2020 at 2:02 PM, Texas Jeff said:

Head on over to their other dashboard:

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

In the panel "Weekly Hospitalizations by Race & Ethnicity - MSA", click on the tab "MSA ICU and Vent 7d Mov. Avg."

Appreciate this, but what I am looking for is a capacity/utilization chart for hospital beds and icu beds. 

Ex. So the chart shows a moving average of 72 ICU beds due to COVID.  I am trying to have a way to determine what that means from a capacity standpoint.  It is going down, but is it down from a capacity of 75 so we are still critically close to over running capacity, or is capacity 1,000 and even if it goes up to 100 (while no hospitalization is good), from a capacity standpoint it should not be an immediate concern.

If I missed that info on the web site I'd appreciate being pointed in the right direction. Thanks.

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4 minutes ago, ABSR said:

Appreciate this, but what I am looking for is a capacity/utilization chart for hospital beds and icu beds. 

Ex. So the chart shows a moving average of 72 ICU beds due to COVID.  I am trying to have a way to determine what that means from a capacity standpoint.  It is going down, but is it down from a capacity of 75 so we are still critically close to over running capacity, or is capacity 1,000 and even if it goes up to 100 (while no hospitalization is good), from a capacity standpoint it should not be an immediate concern.

If I missed that info on the web site I'd appreciate being pointed in the right direction. Thanks.

Three major healthcare systems in Austin have 2,470 beds collectively with 483 ICU beds. These beds don't count the temp places set up in convention center etc.

So currently Travis County has 172 hospitalizations with 63 in ICU. This is down from a peak of 480 patients on July 20th & 159 ICU patients on July 15th.

There were 18 new admits for Travis county yesterday compared to high of 78 on July 15th.

So all in all Travis County/Austin are WAY down in terms of % beds & ICU occupied from CV19. Fingers crossed people can keep their shit together and not fuck it all up with back to school.

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2 hours ago, ABSR said:

Appreciate this, but what I am looking for is a capacity/utilization chart for hospital beds and icu beds. 

Ex. So the chart shows a moving average of 72 ICU beds due to COVID.  I am trying to have a way to determine what that means from a capacity standpoint.  It is going down, but is it down from a capacity of 75 so we are still critically close to over running capacity, or is capacity 1,000 and even if it goes up to 100 (while no hospitalization is good), from a capacity standpoint it should not be an immediate concern.

If I missed that info on the web site I'd appreciate being pointed in the right direction. Thanks.

How about here:

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

Click on "Hospitals - Regional" at the bottom.  Austin is in Trauma Area O.  They don't show total ICU beds but they do show available ICU beds - 73 currently available in Austin.  Avoid area N (College Station), they have only 5 ICU beds available.  Area T on the southern boarder also appears screwed, they have 1 bed left.  

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On 8/22/2020 at 7:01 PM, Message Board User said:

No problem.  

I've had to seek this information out on my own because the media (sadly but expectedly) isn't mentioning one word about this. 

I watched the national news tonight - nothing about the nationwide decrease in hospitalizations. 

Then I watched the local DFW news - nothing about the consistent decrease in hospitalizations here either (over 50% in 1 month!).

I'm also seeing zero about what's very likely a weaker virus in the summer.  Now part of that could certainly be that younger people are being infected.  But we see discussions on every doomsday scenario, even bullshit like re-infections occurring close to the initial infection, but nothing on the changes for the better.  Pretty frustrating for many in the medical community and many in the general public too. 

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19 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I'm also seeing zero about what's very likely a weaker virus in the summer.  Now part of that could certainly be that younger people are being infected.  But we see discussions on every doomsday scenario, even bullshit like re-infections occurring close to the initial infection, but nothing on the changes for the better.  Pretty frustrating for many in the medical community and many in the general public too. 

Correct.

And in the meantime public opinion is being formed and policy is being made based on information that is incomplete at best and misleading and downright mendacious at worst.

What little faith I had in the mainstream media has been completely obliterated in 2020.

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I hate to agree about media agenda but in this case it's true. They like positive stories like people getting off ventilators and finally coming home, but they won't report large hopeful trends. They constantly paste the year-long stats on screen with no context, so viewers have no choice but to think everything is awful.

My only thought is TV news (and legacy newspapers) knows its audience skews older and those folks are skeptical of good news.

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More media bias - ABC affiliate reporter suggests the low cases reported today is because testing demand has dropped.

Considering that hospitalizations have continued to decline, the obvious explanation is because fewer people are getting sick.

 

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This was at the top of the NYTimes page when I woke up this morning.

Why are the numbers of U.S. cases decreasing? Because restrictions are working, experts say.

After cases surged in June and July, the number of new reported cases in the United States began to level off, then drop, though the infection rate remains one of the world’s highest.

Of the states that are driving the decrease, all have at least some local mask mandates. And most have paused or reversed statewide reopening policies, again closing bars, gyms and theaters.

Many of the states with the biggest decreases per million people also had some of the country’s worst outbreaks in July.

Experts said that the drop in reported cases could not be attributed to the recent drop in testing volume. They explained that decreased hospitalizations and a lower share of positive tests indicated that the spread had most likely slowed.

A July surge in Florida affected young people in particular. Statewide bar closures following earlier reopenings and local mask mandates are among the policies that have helped reverse the trend, said Mary Jo Trepka, the chair of the Florida International University epidemiology department. And though Florida is doing better now, the state did surpass 600,000 cases on Sunday.

Arizona and Louisiana have also seen cases drop after taking mask mandates and other measures came into force.

*****

They even took the time to put together an elaborate interactive showing the rise and fall of cases:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/24/us/coronavirus-cases-decreasing.html?name=styln-coronavirus&region=TOP_BANNER&variant=1_Show&block=storyline_menu_recirc&action=click&pgtype=Article&impression_id=1be4b212-e656-11ea-a1b7-657eea393073

 

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Dallas Morning News this afternoon:

 

Dallas County reported 182 additional positive coronavirus tests Monday — and fewer than 100 of them were recent cases.

It is the first time the county has had under 100 daily cases in nearly four months.

Dallas County also reported no new deaths from COVID-19 for the first time since July 5.

Of the new cases, 84 were from March, April and May and are part of a backlog caused by coding issues in the state's reporting system.  Local health officials have had to sort through thousands of previously unknown cases after the Texas Department of State Health Services released the data.

 

Local health officials have focused on hospitalizations, emergency-room visits and ICU admissions as key indicators of the virus’ spread; those updated numbers will be available Tuesday.

“This is the first time we’ve been under 100 cases on any day since April 27th,” County Judge Clay Jenkins said in a written statement.

“While this is great news, it is the result of much hard work on your part,” he said, noting precautions such as wearing masks, washing hands frequently and maintaining social distance. “We must continue to make these smart decisions for this trend to continue.”

 

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There may be some in the media who think they are doing the "socially responsible thing" by not covering the decline in hospitalizations, on the premise that the public will go right back to business as usual if there is even a hint that this thing is easing up. As to whether that kind of behavior is appropriate for a media entity is probably a subject for another board. 

But every day, every news organization makes decisions about what to cover and what not to cover. Sometimes they don't cover certain details or elements of a story because they've decided the information isn't relevant or would not be in the Best Interest Of Society.

 

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1 hour ago, Paper_jam said:

There may be some in the media who think they are doing the "socially responsible thing" by not covering the decline in hospitalizations, on the premise that the public will go right back to business as usual if there is even a hint that this thing is easing up. As to whether that kind of behavior is appropriate for a media entity is probably a subject for another board. 

But every day, every news organization makes decisions about what to cover and what not to cover. Sometimes they don't cover certain details or elements of a story because they've decided the information isn't relevant or would not be in the Best Interest Of Society.

Or they are covering what sells advertising, and what brings eyeballs to their website/publication.

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14 hours ago, Paper_jam said:

There may be some in the media who think they are doing the "socially responsible thing" by not covering the decline in hospitalizations, on the premise that the public will go right back to business as usual if there is even a hint that this thing is easing up. As to whether that kind of behavior is appropriate for a media entity is probably a subject for another board. 

But every day, every news organization makes decisions about what to cover and what not to cover. Sometimes they don't cover certain details or elements of a story because they've decided the information isn't relevant or would not be in the Best Interest Of Society.

 

Or they could responsibly push the fact that masks and social distancing are working and show the positive trends. Give folks some positive encouragement to stay the course. Not everything needs to be fear driven. 

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Another good day in Travis County yesterday. Bear in mind a lot of times the Tuesday update is the TCAD weekend true up so having a lower case count day on a Tuesday is a really nice sign.

154 cases yesterday down ~110 from this time a week ago. Travis Co had been living in a new normal of 200-300 cases a day but this marks three days in a row of <200 cases so that is a nice little trend (even if two of the days were weekend days)

Higher contribution from the 20-29 age bracket (albeit still from smaller numbers) as they represented ~36% of all cases yesterday. Not ready to say this is from college return/move in etc but the zip codes that surround UT bear some monitoring. As of today 78705 has 371 cases.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 8/24 vs 8/23 1 6 8 55 27 25 16 9 6 1 154
% of Daily Change 0.65% 3.90% 5.19% 35.71% 17.53% 16.23% 10.39% 5.84% 3.90% 0.65%  
% of Total Cases 0.48% 2.98% 8.08% 26.72% 21.58% 16.31% 11.52% 6.59% 3.30% 2.44%   25,890
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6 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Another good day in Travis County yesterday. Bear in mind a lot of times the Tuesday update is the TCAD weekend true up so having a lower case count day on a Tuesday is a really nice sign.

154 cases yesterday down ~110 from this time a week ago. Travis Co had been living in a new normal of 200-300 cases a day but this marks three days in a row of <200 cases so that is a nice little trend (even if two of the days were weekend days)

Higher contribution from the 20-29 age bracket (albeit still from smaller numbers) as they represented ~36% of all cases yesterday. Not ready to say this is from college return/move in etc but the zip codes that surround UT bear some monitoring. As of today 78705 has 371 cases.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 8/24 vs 8/23 1 6 8 55 27 25 16 9 6 1 154
% of Daily Change 0.65% 3.90% 5.19% 35.71% 17.53% 16.23% 10.39% 5.84% 3.90% 0.65%  
% of Total Cases 0.48% 2.98% 8.08% 26.72% 21.58% 16.31% 11.52% 6.59% 3.30% 2.44%   25,890

obligatory ...Tuesday is always the big day.

appreciate the updates you are giving here.

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A bunch of Karens/vaxxers/whatever want Eanes to open up in-person learning for all students.

https://www.kxan.com/news/education/parent-group-to-rally-in-favor-of-in-person-classes-outside-eanes-isd-board-meeting-tuesday/

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Parents in the Eanes Independent School District are planning a rally outside of a school board meeting Tuesday afternoon to “demand access to in-person learning for all students,” they say.

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A group of parents called “Eanes Kids First,” will meet outside the Eanes ISD administrative building, 601 Camp Craft Road, at 5 p.m., the same time as the scheduled Eanes ISD school board meeting.

According to a news release, the group feels superintendent, Tom Leonard, has gone against the majority of parents who want in-person learning. School started in the district August 19. 

For the first three weeks of school, the district is online only.

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About 30% of parents with high school-aged kids said they would send them back to campus with social distancing measures in place, while 24% would send them back regardless of social distancing measures. Twenty-one percent of parents said they would not send kids back and would rather do remote, online learning if offered, and 16% didn’t know what they’d do at the time of the survey.

So this little group is trying to make it seem like ALL parents want in-person schooling for ALL kids, when in fact only 24% would send their kids back to a wide-open/no social distancing school.

Can't embed video, but there's some Karens in there who are clearly tired of their kids being home.

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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

A bunch of Karens/vaxxers/whatever want Eanes to open up in-person learning for all students.

https://www.kxan.com/news/education/parent-group-to-rally-in-favor-of-in-person-classes-outside-eanes-isd-board-meeting-tuesday/

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So this little group is trying to make it seem like ALL parents want in-person schooling for ALL kids, when in fact only 24% would send their kids back to a wide-open/no social distancing school.

Can't embed video, but there's some Karens in there who are clearly tired of their kids being home.

while I think we should be in school for the most part, the "screens give me headaches" sign may have  actually reached very top of the height of irony.

Edited by dcar00
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while I think we should be in school for the most part, the "screens give me headaches" sign may have  actually reached very top of the height of irony.

To be fair I have a neighbor whose son will get dizzy and almost throw up after watching a screen for very long so it could be true. Hell maybe it’s this kid?!?


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11 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

154 cases yesterday down ~110 from this time a week ago. Travis Co had been living in a new normal of 200-300 cases a day but this marks three days in a row of <200 cases so that is a nice little trend (even if two of the days were weekend days)

 

There appears to be some revisions to the numbers.  I am seeing 127 now on the dashboard and they have not updated with today's numbers. 

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Four days in a row <200 cases for Travis County. That is a nice little trend to see. 127 cases yesterday vs 349 a week ago same day. the 40 - 49 cohort represents a third of all cases yesterday but they were offset by less representation in the 70+ cohorts so there should be a dip in deaths following these as well in coming weeks.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 8/25 vs 8/24 0 1 6 29 25 31 22 9 2 2 127
% of Daily Change 0.00% 0.79% 4.72% 22.83% 19.69% 24.41% 17.32% 7.09% 1.57% 1.57%  
% of Total Cases 0.48% 2.97% 8.06% 26.71% 21.57% 16.35% 11.55% 6.59% 3.29% 2.43%   26,017
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16 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

That is one of the things that drives me crazy around Travis County. They are fairly loose with data.

Clown show. 

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200825/amid-drop-in-coronavirus-cases-austin-health-officials-ready-to-ease-restrictions

But by mid-August, the numbers sloped downward, with the hospitalization average down to 21.1 on Monday, and the daily count of new cases as low as 81 and only as high as 350 over the past 10 days.

Some of those higher figures include thousands of backlogged cases reported by the state that were not included in earlier reports.

Escott said health officials examined those cases and found about 50% of them were more than two weeks old, and therefore no longer active.

“So while right now this appears to be a plateau with some oscillations, we have evidence now that supports the fact that our cases are likely actually declining more substantially,” Escott said.

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Just now, Anastasis said:

Clown show. 

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200825/amid-drop-in-coronavirus-cases-austin-health-officials-ready-to-ease-restrictions

But by mid-August, the numbers sloped downward, with the hospitalization average down to 21.1 on Monday, and the daily count of new cases as low as 81 and only as high as 350 over the past 10 days.

Some of those higher figures include thousands of backlogged cases reported by the state that were not included in earlier reports.

Escott said health officials examined those cases and found about 50% of them were more than two weeks old, and therefore no longer active.

“So while right now this appears to be a plateau with some oscillations, we have evidence now that supports the fact that our cases are likely actually declining more substantially,” Escott said.

This is the kind of shit that also feeds the "grassy knoll" CV19 deniers/anti-maskers. It seems like every week there is news that contradicts reports that were released prior. Ranging from data accuracy/mgmt, medical studies etc

Just feels like it is CV19 TMZ vs people trying to rationally, pragmatically report the information.

 

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6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Clown show. 

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200825/amid-drop-in-coronavirus-cases-austin-health-officials-ready-to-ease-restrictions

But by mid-August, the numbers sloped downward, with the hospitalization average down to 21.1 on Monday, and the daily count of new cases as low as 81 and only as high as 350 over the past 10 days.

Some of those higher figures include thousands of backlogged cases reported by the state that were not included in earlier reports.

Escott said health officials examined those cases and found about 50% of them were more than two weeks old, and therefore no longer active.

“So while right now this appears to be a plateau with some oscillations, we have evidence now that supports the fact that our cases are likely actually declining more substantially,” Escott said.

wait, what?  I am so shocked.  I could see this at the doc in the box testing center near my work.  I'd have to go look at my posts but I think about 3 weeks ago the testing line for cars went to basically zero.

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It's hard for me to fault the system for this.  We've never before in history expected real-time data on this sort of thing.  It's always been collected months or years later, after all the noise has time to settle.

The real problem is that we're basing major short term public health and public policy decisions on the returned data from processes and systems that were never intended to provide real time data.

Perhaps it's a gap that can be fixed before the next one, but I don't expect it to be corrected any time in the next 12-18 months, that's just not how legacy IT and long-established processes work.

 

 

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Clown show. 

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200825/amid-drop-in-coronavirus-cases-austin-health-officials-ready-to-ease-restrictions

But by mid-August, the numbers sloped downward, with the hospitalization average down to 21.1 on Monday, and the daily count of new cases as low as 81 and only as high as 350 over the past 10 days.

Some of those higher figures include thousands of backlogged cases reported by the state that were not included in earlier reports.

Escott said health officials examined those cases and found about 50% of them were more than two weeks old, and therefore no longer active.

“So while right now this appears to be a plateau with some oscillations, we have evidence now that supports the fact that our cases are likely actually declining more substantially,” Escott said.

All they need to do is report two numbers:

1 -- a running tally of total cases, which can include backlogged results, and

2 -- "new cases" -- those cases diagnosed in the past X days, meaning they are active cases.

I agree, the sloppy reporting feeds the damned deniers and conspiracy theorists (nevermind my rule that's a shitload like Occam's razor -- when the gov't is involved, and the possible explanations are incompetence or a sinister conspiracy.....it's always incompetence).

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TCAD again had a <1  & 1 to 9 case reduction (just by 1) but it is weird that this is the group that this happens with (to be fair it may just be only group where it is so easy to see).

Another good day yesterday with 100 cases. That makes 5 days in a row with <200 cases. You have to go back to mid June to see that. Really encouraging signs here.

2nd day in a row for the 40-49 grouping to be higher than their typical contribution (albeit on a small base)

Keep it going Travis County.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 8/26 vs 8/25 -1 -1 6 35 12 27 6 5 3 8 100
% of Daily Change -1.00% -1.00% 6.00% 35.00% 12.00% 27.00% 6.00% 5.00% 3.00% 8.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.47% 2.96% 8.05% 26.74% 21.53% 16.39% 11.53% 6.59% 3.29% 2.45%   26,117
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14 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Got pulled over in Dripping for speeding today and of course the constable wasn’t wearing a mask. He stuck his head in the passenger window about a foot from my wife. I would’ve said something but he gave me a warning and didn’t shoot my kids.

Left your dog at home?

edited to add: email the LEO’s office & let them know.

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So I have been tracking daily cases since March and thought I would look at % hospitalization rate vs cases over time.

Obviously someone being admitted to the hospital on a certain date, does not mean they actually tested positive for on that same date. For giggles and grins though I thought it would be a cool visual.

The overall hospitalization rate is 15.15% (3,985 admits vs 26,305 cases). Time range is 3/12/20 through 8/26/20. Chart will show from 3/17 as the days 3/12 to 3/16 were wonky with admits vs no cases. Let me know thoughts. It is bucketed by months but you can see the variability.  A couple of the early, early dates were >100% rate due to really small admits vs no cases recorded. I truncated higher end of axis at 80% so you can see a bit more of the movement over time.

image.png.3b4add1be27e64ea5583af72870d04fe.png

 

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Six days in a row <200 cases with 122 yesterday for Travis County. The buoyancy level was somewhere in the 200-300 daily case range but if this can hold Travis will have new baseline in 100-200 range which will be really nice to see (obviously). 3 cases yesterday in the <1 age group which is the highest single day increase since I have been tracking the data. Big jump also in the 20-29 age range with them representing ~36% of all cases yesterday.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 8/26 vs 8/25 3 1 19 44 23 19 6 5 2 0 122
% of Daily Change 2.46% 0.82% 15.57% 36.07% 18.85% 15.57% 4.92% 4.10% 1.64% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.48% 2.95% 8.09% 26.78% 21.52% 16.38% 11.50% 6.57% 3.28% 2.44%   26,239
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Just got back last night from Dallas.  First overnight trip since this whole thing premiered.  Had to stay in north Richardson due to folks fleeing from the hurricane. Off Campbell Road and 75 right by Prairie Creek Elementary if you need to triangulate.   
 

Now that’s not an area that in my decade-plus living in Dallas I would have ever called “liberal” or “progressive.”  Trump signs everywhere.  I was concerned I was going to COVID denier central
 

But every single fucking person I saw for two days was wearing a mask. Inside, outside, everywhere.  Went all the way down to Lakewood and East Dallas.  Same thing.  Everyone.  On patios, in stores, at takeout, everywhere.  People eating and quickly pulling them up and down as needed. Almost overkill. People turning off their cars in parking lots and immediately reaching for and putting on a mask before getting out to walk in the door instead of carrying it in their hands and holding it up to their face as they open the door. Waiting turns instead of trying to wedge in the door like the last Turbo Man is on sale there. 
 

Felt very safe.  
 

So I figured maybe it’s just gotten through to people and my thoughts on this shit are out of date.  “I’ll drive around and really look when I get back home.”

Nope.  Drove around Bellaire first.  30% at best. People openly defying the rule in Walgreens and Home Depot, or playing that game where they just hold it up to their face while people walk right next to them. No attention paid to distance from other customers at all  

Went to the Village- grudgingly around a few peoples’ necks but mostly 5-6 people groups wandering maskless from store to store. No one on the patios at restaurants giving a fuck. Kirby car washes, bus stops and everywhere else - not a mask in sight and everyone right next to each othet. 

The contrast was shocking and inescapable. 

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1 hour ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Just got back last night from Dallas.  First overnight trip since this whole thing premiered.  Had to stay in north Richardson due to folks fleeing from the hurricane. Off Campbell Road and 75 right by Prairie Creek Elementary if you need to triangulate.   
 

Now that’s not an area that in my decade-plus living in Dallas I would have ever called “liberal” or “progressive.”  Trump signs everywhere.  I was concerned I was going to COVID denier central
 

But every single fucking person I saw for two days was wearing a mask. Inside, outside, everywhere.  Went all the way down to Lakewood and East Dallas.  Same thing.  Everyone.  On patios, in stores, at takeout, everywhere.  People eating and quickly pulling them up and down as needed. Almost overkill. People turning off their cars in parking lots and immediately reaching for and putting on a mask before getting out to walk in the door instead of carrying it in their hands and holding it up to their face as they open the door. Waiting turns instead of trying to wedge in the door like the last Turbo Man is on sale there. 
 

Felt very safe.  
 

So I figured maybe it’s just gotten through to people and my thoughts on this shit are out of date.  “I’ll drive around and really look when I get back home.”

Nope.  Drove around Bellaire first.  30% at best. People openly defying the rule in Walgreens and Home Depot, or playing that game where they just hold it up to their face while people walk right next to them. No attention paid to distance from other customers at all  

Went to the Village- grudgingly around a few peoples’ necks but mostly 5-6 people groups wandering maskless from store to store. No one on the patios at restaurants giving a fuck. Kirby car washes, bus stops and everywhere else - not a mask in sight and everyone right next to each othet. 

The contrast was shocking and inescapable. 

So Houston > Dallas?

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  • immamac changed the title to COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

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