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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only (no politics)

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1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Fuck. Be careful, depending on the test, it may produce false negatives or false positives. I hope she feels better. 

From what I am reading (conspiracy sites like the NYT), the biggest issue with tests now is false positives - they do so many "cycles" to test for fragments of the virus, that we may not be picking up "real" and/or active infections.  

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Travis County yesterday at 142 cases so well within the 100-200 "new normal". One thing that is becoming really obvious is that the 10-19 age group is spiking. I know St. Andrews/Hyde Park etc are back in person as of a couple of weeks ago so I am assuming that this is a driver. The last two days of case count in this group is the biggest two day stretch to date and this group is on a 7 day run of being well over their normal share of cases. Good news is this should reduce hospitalization rate which should drop admits down. If you have kids in this age group (I have two) -  make sure they are wearing masks & washing hands.  (just checked only 5 admits yesterday)

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 9/16 vs 9/15 0 2 57 33 18 12 10 3 3 4 142
% of Daily Change 0.00% 1.41% 40.14% 23.24% 12.68% 8.45% 7.04% 2.11% 2.11% 2.82%  
% of Total Cases 0.51% 2.94% 8.87% 26.77% 21.24% 16.18% 11.45% 6.50% 3.19% 2.34%

  28,103

Edited by BrazilHorn

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https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/gov-abbott-group-of-state-officials-to-hold-covid-19-press-conference-at-12-p-m-thursday/
 

Quote

Businesses across much of Texas will be allowed to expand capacity restrictions starting as early as Sept. 21, Gov. Greg Abbott announced Thursday.

For the state’s 19 hospital regions where coronavirus hospitalizations are less than 15% industries that were limited to 50% capacity may now expand to 75% capacity starting Sept. 21, including all retail stores, all restaurants, all office buildings, all manufacturing, all museums and libraries, and all gyms.

Hospitals in those regions may return to ordinary elective surgical procedures immediately, Abbott also stated.

Won’t change the lawsuit, but will make a bunch happy:

Quote

Starting Sept. 24, Abbott said all nursing home facilities, assisted living centers, state supported living centers, and other long-term care facilities are allowed to reopen for visitation, providing that they comply with certain health protocols and there must not be a COVID-19 outbreak in the facility. All of those facilities are now allowed to offer essential caregiver visits, he said.

Quote

Abbott indicated bars are nationally recognized as COVID-19 spreading locations, and will not be allowed to reopen at this time. He acknowledged that the state is focused on finding ways to get them open, and leaders have been working with bar owners and associations on methods of reopening.

Quote

Abbott said the metric he’s relying most heavily on is hospitalizations. Medical experts have warned about increased spread in regions where 15% or more of hospitalizations are coronavirus-related.

“Hospitalizations is the most important information about the severity of COVID-19 in any particular region,” Gov. Abbott said. “It is also the most accurate information available on a regular basis.”

If a region experiences less than 15% of all hospitalizations being coronavirus-related for seven consecutive days, then the region is safe enough to allow additional openings, Abbott said.

All Texas regions, except Victoria, Laredo and the Lower Rio Grande Valley have COVID-19 hospitalizations less than 15%, according to data provided by the Governor’s office.

Quote

Texas is scheduled to receive millions of 15-minute tests per month that will more quickly notify people if they are infected with COVID-19.

The biggest reason for the improvements in Texas, doctors advised Abbott, is because Texans are taking COVID-19 seriously. The best practices that leaders have put in place, including social distancing, hand-washing and mask-wearing, are the best defense against the virus until vaccines are available.

Some interesting things:

  • fuck you bars
  • nursing homes opening up if they have solid practices and no outbreaks
  • wear your make and wash your hands (hint: many won’t)
  • the influx of 15-minute tests will have a huge impact on schools and athletics 
  • they are following hospitalizations as an indicator
Edited by atomheartbevo

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16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/gov-abbott-group-of-state-officials-to-hold-covid-19-press-conference-at-12-p-m-thursday/
 

Won’t change the lawsuit, but will make a bunch happy:

Some interesting things:

  • fuck you bars
  • nursing homes opening up if they have solid practices and no outbreaks
  • wear your make and wash your hands (hint: many won’t)
  • the influx of 15-minute tests will have a huge impact on schools and athletics 
  • they are following hospitalizations as an indicator

I really think that Abbot is right in this case in terms of using hospitalizations as key measure. I also support bars staying closed. I do believe that places like Rainey St/6th St. etc could close to automotive traffic and offer outdoor seating and the city could leverage porta potties for bathrooms. (This is what Breckenridge did this summer) as a means to open bars up. Just don't let folks congregate indoors. I also like the nursing home ban if CV19 is evident. Given all the lab fuckery anything to allow for a quick test could be game changer.

Texas at a macro level seems to be doing well and I truly hope people can keep it going by not being selfish assholes here.

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6 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I really think that Abbot is right in this case in terms of using hospitalizations as key measure. I also support bars staying closed. I do believe that places like Rainey St/6th St. etc could close to automotive traffic and offer outdoor seating and the city could leverage porta potties for bathrooms. (This is what Breckenridge did this summer) as a means to open bars up. Just don't let folks congregate indoors. I also like the nursing home ban if CV19 is evident. Given all the lab fuckery anything to allow for a quick test could be game changer.

Texas at a macro level seems to be doing well and I truly hope people can keep it going by not being selfish assholes here.

This.  I don't have any major problems with this approach.  We just need to follow the numbers, particularly hospitalizations, closely.

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I know Austin/Travis reports total COVID hospitalizations and COVID new hospital admits.  Anybody know where the % of total hospitalizations for COVID is reported since that is the metric cited?

 

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18 minutes ago, PantsTent said:

I know Austin/Travis reports total COVID hospitalizations and COVID new hospital admits.  Anybody know where the % of total hospitalizations for COVID is reported since that is the metric cited?

 

https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/

Here is link. You will need to go into excel sheet and track. One thing I can tell you for Travis is roughly 15% of all cases result in hospitalization. (that is starting to trend down a bit as younger people are becoming bigger chunk of cases lately)

You can see Austin has 94 people in beds with CV19 as of 9/16 vs a total bed population of 3,273 (not counting ICU). I got this by adding occupied & empty tabs for Austin. This puts Austin at 2.87% of beds occupied by CV19 patients. Bear in mind this is the Austin metro area. (which is how state looks at it).

edit - Here is another link that shows ppt presentation of various metro areas and hospital capacity. This is from June 16th

Edited by BrazilHorn

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58 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/

Here is link. You will need to go into excel sheet and track. One thing I can tell you for Travis is roughly 15% of all cases result in hospitalization. (that is starting to trend down a bit as younger people are becoming bigger chunk of cases lately)

You can see Austin has 94 people in beds with CV19 as of 9/16 vs a total bed population of 3,273 (not counting ICU). I got this by adding occupied & empty tabs for Austin. This puts Austin at 2.87% of beds occupied by CV19 patients. Bear in mind this is the Austin metro area. (which is how state looks at it).

edit - Here is another link that shows ppt presentation of various metro areas and hospital capacity. This is from June 16th

It's worded as % of total hospitalized so 94/2549 or 3.7%.  But that would mean if we hover around 2600 total hospitalized, then 15% would allow up to 390 COVID paintents, which July type numbers.  I'm glad we're looking at hospital metrics instead of some stupid number of cases or % positive.  Just trying to gauge where we have been on this metric.  Seems like June/August numbers are ok and July is not.

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the problem I am hearing is kids will go back to in school but the teacher is basically in the corner doing the zoom and the kids in the class are looking at their computers watching the zoom anyway and they can't leave.  kids have decided to come back home where they have the freedom to get up and do something if needed.

to be clear this is middle school and high school age.  so maybe elementary is different.

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

the problem I am hearing is kids will go back to in school but the teacher is basically in the corner doing the zoom and the kids in the class are looking at their computers watching the zoom anyway and they can't leave.  kids have decided to come back home where they have the freedom to get up and do something if needed.

to be clear this is middle school and high school age.  so maybe elementary is different.

Yeah, I can see that.  Of course, from my perspective as a parent of a high schooler, him NOT having the freedom to get up and do something else would be helpful.  Focus is a challenge.

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9 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

the problem I am hearing is kids will go back to in school but the teacher is basically in the corner doing the zoom and the kids in the class are looking at their computers watching the zoom anyway and they can't leave.  kids have decided to come back home where they have the freedom to get up and do something if needed.

to be clear this is middle school and high school age.  so maybe elementary is different.

Probably depends on grade and district - here in AISD, both my pre-K and 2nd-grader are going to have actual instruction.   There will be a teacher and possibly TA dedicated to the online/home kids, but in-person they get regular instruction, just behind little shields, and with extra hand washing.  We've already discussed it with the teachers.  If they are going to just sit there on Zoom, then we will bring them home.

Edited by atomheartbevo

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1 hour ago, texasdago said:

I'm amazed how people people are hospitalized in Austin vs some other cities.  Really seem to have gotten it under control.

I'm not. Austin has almost universal mask adoption as well as social pressure to wear them for those who want to try to buck the system.

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38 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, I can see that.  Of course, from my perspective as a parent of a high schooler, him NOT having the freedom to get up and do something else would be helpful.  Focus is a challenge.

agreed. from what I hear they go to one classroom and don't go to another classroom so they are in the classroom all day doing zoom whether the teacher in that class is doing zoom for them or not.  my 2 are in college so it isn't first hand but 2 close friends who told me the same story.

sitting at one desk all day in a school classroom is going to get real boring real fast for a middle schooler.  this is RRISD BTW.

both kids said if I'm going to just sit and watch zoom I'd rather do it at home.

Elementary is probably better because kids might be used to being in one classroom for more of the day and elementary schools might  have more TA's to help.

I understand the concern of the teachers and the parents.  there really is no good option unless teachers/coaches/etc. are willing to take the risk. I think the risk is low(assuming the teacher is sub 40 and healthy) given the data but then again I'm not a teacher.

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1 hour ago, texasdago said:

I'm amazed how people people are hospitalized in Austin vs some other cities.  Really seem to have gotten it under control.

the employers being hi tech, govt, and university helps.  lots of work from home.

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4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

agreed. from what I hear they go to one classroom and don't go to another classroom so they are in the classroom all day doing zoom whether the teacher in that class is doing zoom for them or not.  my 2 are in college so it isn't first hand but 2 close friends who told me the same story.

sitting at one desk all day in a school classroom is going to get real boring real fast for a middle schooler.  this is RRISD BTW.

both kids said if I'm going to just sit and watch zoom I'd rather do it at home.

Elementary is probably better because kids might be used to being in one classroom for more of the day and elementary schools might  have more TA's to help.

I understand the concern of the teachers and the parents.  there really is no good option unless teachers/coaches/etc. are willing to take the risk. I think the risk is low(assuming the teacher is sub 40 and healthy) given the data but then again I'm not a teacher.

Yeah, my son's high school (private) is hybrid, with I think around 1/3 of the kids in person thus far.  All but one of his teachers is in the classroom -- one of them is staying remote because of personal health risks.  

I just think there's some value in a routine of getting up and going someplace other than his room, which is a cave, and being forced to be in a "school" environment.  Not to mention even the little bit of social connection he can have by being around some other students.  He's a bit of an introvert, so social interaction that happens around him is important.  We're working on his path to get back to the classroom.

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, my son's high school (private) is hybrid, with I think around 1/3 of the kids in person thus far.  All but one of his teachers is in the classroom -- one of them is staying remote because of personal health risks.  

I just think there's some value in a routine of getting up and going someplace other than his room, which is a cave, and being forced to be in a "school" environment.  Not to mention even the little bit of social connection he can have by being around some other students.  He's a bit of an introvert, so social interaction that happens around him is important.  We're working on his path to get back to the classroom.

agreed on both of these. get the fuck up and make your bed..ha. its actually hurting my daughter at UT.  sitting in a dorm too much and they are pushing close to zero interaction, hanging out at the dorm.  we are going to have to get moving because the mental part of this for kids is not good.   son is different, 10 feet tall and bullet proof.

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FYI for the parents:

DSHS & TEA are now releasing a weekly statewide case count for on-campus students and staff. It's not really helpful at this point, but a note at the bottom of the page says they'll start posting ISD figures in an Excel spreadsheet beginning 9/23.

https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/schools/texas-education-agency/

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8 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

agreed on both of these. get the fuck up and make your bed..ha. its actually hurting my daughter at UT.  sitting in a dorm too much and they are pushing close to zero interaction, hanging out at the dorm.  we are going to have to get moving because the mental part of this for kids is not good.   son is different, 10 feet tall and bullet proof.

Yeah, very lucky it's my daughter's sophomore year, and she's in an apartment with roommates, in an active neighborhood, and has several other friendgroups living nearby.  They get to get out and about, socialize, etc.  No huge parties (she actually left a party last Friday when the crowd got up to 30), but a relatively normal existence, with movement and a schedule.  It's helpful.  Really, for those of us fortunate enough to be able to truck along financially relatively okay, the mental health beating has been the worst.  And it's uniform -- everyone we know is on the struggle bus in some respect.

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the problem I am hearing is kids will go back to in school but the teacher is basically in the corner doing the zoom and the kids in the class are looking at their computers watching the zoom anyway and they can't leave.  kids have decided to come back home where they have the freedom to get up and do something if needed.
to be clear this is middle school and high school age.  so maybe elementary is different.

This has been our experience. Middle son bailed on in person middle school because it was basically a 20 minute bus ride to sit on zoom calls. The teaching is centered around virtual students, so there’s no learning (or much social) advantage to going in person.

My youngest loves in person elementary however because his teacher has a fully in person class.

Dual modality teaching caters to online students, at least in our district.

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I haven't been keeping up with the numbers lately. Have we had an outbreak post Labor Day?

I was expecting a spike after labor day and after school reopenings. If we aren't experiencing a huge increase in numbers after Labor Day and with schools opening somewhat, we aren't going to have one, at least in the areas that have already had large numbers of cases.

It will stay at about this level until a vaccine is released. Many 100s of pages back, I anticipated an attenuated sine wave like decrease in numbers. I'm hopeful that we might even improve upon that.

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109 cases yesterday for Travis County so not a terrible day re: case count. One area that saw a drop in case % from being in the 30%+ range was the 10-19 age group. One negative for yesterday that 70 - 79 (~10% mortality) & 80+ (~20% mortality) saw an uptick (albeit on small numbers) so I would expect to see potentially 1-2 deaths from the 13 cases that were logged yesterday across these two groups. Hospital admits jumped back up to 17 yesterday ending the four day run of 9.25 admits/avg per day.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 9/17 vs 9/16 0 6 15 32 21 14 5 3 6 7 109
% of Daily Change 0.00% 5.50% 13.76% 29.36% 19.27% 12.84% 4.59% 2.75% 5.50% 6.42%  
% of Total Cases 0.51% 2.95% 8.89% 26.78% 21.24% 16.17% 11.43% 6.48% 3.20% 2.36%   28,212

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17 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

109 cases yesterday for Travis County so not a terrible day re: case count. One area that saw a drop in case % from being in the 30%+ range was the 10-19 age group. One negative for yesterday that 70 - 79 (~10% mortality) & 80+ (~20% mortality) saw an uptick (albeit on small numbers) so I would expect to see potentially 1-2 deaths from the 13 cases that were logged yesterday across these two groups. Hospital admits jumped back up to 17 yesterday ending the four day run of 9.25 admits/avg per day.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 9/17 vs 9/16 0 6 15 32 21 14 5 3 6 7 109
% of Daily Change 0.00% 5.50% 13.76% 29.36% 19.27% 12.84% 4.59% 2.75% 5.50% 6.42%  
% of Total Cases 0.51% 2.95% 8.89% 26.78% 21.24% 16.17% 11.43% 6.48% 3.20% 2.36%   28,212

I know you're looking at this every day, can you tell if the UT cases are getting logged in to the Travis County numbers?  Like a while ago when there were some large clusters from West Campus, I think it was around 100 cases... can you tell if those made it into these numbers?

 

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15 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I know you're looking at this every day, can you tell if the UT cases are getting logged in to the Travis County numbers?  Like a while ago when there were some large clusters from West Campus, I think it was around 100 cases... can you tell if those made it into these numbers?

 

the 78705 zip code shows 618 cases total and this largely encompasses UT (obviously some students can and do live of campus). From 8/30 - 9/12 UT reports that 127 students/faculty/staff tested positive via on campus testing. From the 10-19 & 20-29 age groups for that same period Travis county had an increase in 507 cases. Part of challenge is that UT did a big dump of positive cases via Austin Public Health dump to them and added them in so numbers get murky as if you look at their by day data you will see much larger spikes in count vs what they had on campus.

So short answer long, I believe it is included, but also if person has a different home address then UT it is possible it counts against their count.

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19 hours ago, bschoolprof said:


This has been our experience. Middle son bailed on in person middle school because it was basically a 20 minute bus ride to sit on zoom calls. The teaching is centered around virtual students, so there’s no learning (or much social) advantage to going in person.

My youngest loves in person elementary however because his teacher has a fully in person class.

Dual modality teaching caters to online students, at least in our district.

I would say the opposite is true for our Dual modality teaching.   I think it has improved but the first week the virtual kids had trouble hearing teachers (not speaking into the microphone - which is new) and not seeing them virtually raise hands, etc.    Good thing about duality is that if kids need to change or decide to change then it is same teacher, curriculum, etc and they just transition from virtual to in-person or vice versa. (There are restrictions on when/how/who can transition).

My kids are in person and I think in general it is going well.  Clear plastic barriers by teachers desk, everyone wearing masks and teachers also with clear plastic face masks also.  Lunch tables with limited seating and lunches pre-ordered and prepackaged so limited standing in line.  We have had some COVID positives from kids and a few teachers, but not generally very high.   The contact tracing protocol seems like over kill as we had a teach test positive, and while she had mask, clear shield and plastic barrier on desk they told all kids from first row they had to do 14 day quarantine.   

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16 hours ago, Bevo said:

I was expecting a spike after labor day and after school reopenings. If we aren't experiencing a huge increase in numbers after Labor Day and with schools opening somewhat, we aren't going to have one, at least in the areas that have already had large numbers of cases.

I think any spike would just be starting to materialize.  I won't feel confident about it for another couple of weeks at least.

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17 hours ago, Bevo said:

I haven't been keeping up with the numbers lately. Have we had an outbreak post Labor Day?

I was expecting a spike after labor day and after school reopenings. If we aren't experiencing a huge increase in numbers after Labor Day and with schools opening somewhat, we aren't going to have one, at least in the areas that have already had large numbers of cases.

It will stay at about this level until a vaccine is released. Many 100s of pages back, I anticipated an attenuated sine wave like decrease in numbers. I'm hopeful that we might even improve upon that.

We have not had a material increase in cases since Labor Day (speaking for Travis County). In addition a heavier % of cases since Labor Day were from the 10-19 & 20-29 year old age groups which bode well for hospitalizations down the line. There was one day of >200 cases (but also 4 <100) since Labor Day but if you are thinking spike a la early July when shit hit the fan, nothing close to it.

Need another week to go and want to keep tracking hospitalizations but all in all it looks like Labor Day thus far has been a non-event.

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2 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

 

Need another week to go and want to keep tracking hospitalizations but all in all it looks like Labor Day thus far has been a non-event.

For Dallas we saw the first "oh shit" spike in hospitalization data for week ending 6/13 (about 2.5 weeks after Memorial Day).  But we didn't really see that manifest until the report released on 6/20 which then was further solidified by additional numbers as of 6/23 and then it was off to the races.    So in theory we could certainly be having current rapid spread that won't show up in the numbers for a week or 2.  I hope not but certainly plausible.

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The 7 day average for Travis County bottomed out on Sept 3rd at about 70 cases/day.  From there it's rebounded to around 110-120 cases/day.  Not out of control, but defiantly a rise.

Travis County added something to their dashboard to tell you which zip code had the most cases over the past 7, 14, and 28 days.  Right now, 78705 (around UT) is winning all categories.

UT is testing the crap out of their population and contact tracing.  Kids are getting notified when someone close to them in a dorm has it.  Hopefully the Travis County rise is just a result of UT starting the semester combined with a few others getting it through daycares and schools, and not the start of another big outbreak.

Statewide, the testing is depressingly flat or even declining.  Those simple, quick, cheap, less painful tests can't get here fast enough.

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1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

20 new admissions in ATX.

Not good bob.  Going the wrong direction. 

Ah man. I hope I didn't early-celebrate jinx the no Labor Day spike thing.

Edited by BradInATX

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1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

20 new admissions in ATX.

Not good bob.  Going the wrong direction. 

We've still got some time.  AISD opens up to in-person classes at 25% capacity on October 5th, and then I think it's two weeks later they move to 50% if things go well.  So basically a month out.

And from the informal polling of parents from both of my kid's classes, I'm thinking only 50-60% are willing to go in-person right now, which means there's enough room for my kids.

Can't come soon enough, this is me currently during the weekdays between 7:50am and 3pm:

spacer.png

This will be me if my kids are still home come the middle of October

spacer.png

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1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

Ah man. I hope I didn't early-celebrate jinx the no Labor Day spike thing.

That concerns me a bit - If only say 200 people caught it on Labor Day, yay!

But if those 200 people each spread it on average to 3-4 people over the following two weeks, boo!

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