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Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/29/22 in all areas

  1. 30 points
  2. Everybody talks about Putin's escalation, but nobody spares a thought for ours. We have been casually escalating this thing from the outset. Go back a few hundred pages on this thread, and you'll see handwringing about us sending javelins and imposing modest sanctions. We've gone from javelins to HIMARS, and we're seriously talking about the United States and our allies supplying main battle tanks and ATACMS. We've gone from imposing targeted sanctions on a few people to cutting Russia off SWIFT and capping the price of Russian oil, and we're seriously talking about designating Russia state-sponsor of terrorism. What all this shows is that the United States, having put down its penny, is in for a pound. We're not going to allow Ukraine to fall (or even not return to its pre-February 24 borders, at the very least). I have absolutely no doubt that if there were a new Russian offensive from Belarus that threatened to take Kyiv, there would be direct NATO intervention. And that was unthinkable on February 24. But look at where we are on the escalation road: Russia has very little more it can do to escalate its war against Ukraine. It can do things that it may think will make its current efforts more effective (e.g., wartime mobilization of the economy and martial law). But that doesn't escalate the situation vis-a-vis Ukraine or NATO. The only real thing Russia can do to escalate is use nuclear weapons. NATO, in contrast, has a lot of ways in which it can dial up the pressure. It can name Russia a state-sponsor of terrorism. It can impose secondary sanctions and completely destroy the Russian economy. It can give Ukraine weapons that will allow it to strike targets inside Russia. It can aid Georgia and Moldova and Japan in retaking disputed territory and further put pressure on an overstretched Russia military. It can hire contractors to aid the Ukrainian military and outfit those contractors with American weapons and equipment. It can conduct airstrikes directly. It can send ground forces to defend Ukraine. It can destroy Russian space-based communications and the internet. It can even seize Russian territory (e.g., Kalinningrad). It can do all these things before it even thinks about using nuclear weapons. That gives NATO an enormous strategic advantage. We can hurt Russia in a lot of ways; Russia can't answer. Russia has already lost this war. Maybe Putin doesn't know that yet; maybe he does. But Russia does not have a viable path to victory at this point.
    22 points
  3. Surly lawyer shop talk is worst Surly.
    21 points
  4. If he gets away with it in Ukraine he will absolutely try again elsewhere. All it would do is tell him that all he has to do is threaten to use Nukes and we will back down.
    20 points
  5. I agree with this entirely. It is an extremely dangerous paradigm shift, and we need to stop it in its tracks. What we're doing now is fine, but we need to signal very clearly to Russia (and to the world) that we are going to do whatever it takes to eject Russia from Ukrainian territory. We're not going to allow nuclear weapons to be used as the ultimate leverage by an aggressor. We also need to state very clearly that a nuclear attack on a non-nuclear nation is contrary to the national security interests of the United States and will be regarded as an act of war against them. And, frankly, that needs to be an organized statement on behalf of all of NATO. Yeah--we've got a lot of interests at stake here. And this war is working out very well for us so far. We just need to make sure not to blow it. No doubt. It's really hard to find fault with how the United States has handled this. And really, it has gone a long way to absolving the United States of their manifold sins over the past 20 years. We knew what Putin was going to do before his own commanders. We told the world. A lot of the world didn't want to believe us. But damned if we weren't dead-on balls accurate. And now does anybody even remember the whole "Iraq has WMD" debacle? No. All anybody knows now is that American intelligence is the gold standard. We can send over materiel that is a full generation ahead of anything Russia is rolling out there, and we're still not even sending over the good stuff. Nor are we even doing anything to really ramp up our production; we're sending shit out of our stockpiles. A hot minute ago, people were wondering about China's and Russia's hypersonic missiles and their cyber-warfare capabilities. Is anybody worried about that now? No. We are demonstrating once again that the United States remains the greatest industrial power on Earth, and it's not even really close. And we're training the Ukrainians and giving them the benefit of our AI-enabled wargaming strategies. Yeah--shit went south in Afghanistan. People started thinking that the United States was no longer capable of projecting power. Does anybody think that now? No. Our allies now know that there is only one power in the world that is capable of fighting off any potential adversary. Our enemies know that, too. It's why we're gaining new allies, and why our enemies are putting their heads down. At the risk of making a nod to the CR, Joe Biden isn't getting a lot of credit for this. But his administration's handling of this is overcoming all of the various fuck-ups of the Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations. And that was a pretty tall motherfucking order.
    18 points
  6. This idea is insane to me. Russia brought war to Ukraine, destroyed cities, tortured/raped/mass murdered civilians, stole thousands of children, on and on but somehow there’s some line of escalation everyone agrees will be crossed if Ukraine attacks on Russian soil? Fuck that. Don’t want no shit, don’t start no shit.
    18 points
  7. As we are talking about the particulars of this war, I want to pause for a second to appreciate the gravity of this moment in the historic sense. 77 years ago, the United States introduced the atomic bomb to the world. Since that moment, nuclear weapons have been de facto used as a defense. No nation possessing nuclear weapons has attempted to gain territory under threat of nuclear annihilation. Across tens of nasty proxy wars and crises, no nation has directly said that losing a proxy war would trigger nuclear use. As Russia prepares formal annexation and to declare these provinces “Russia” in the middle of a conflict, here is the new understanding of these world-ending weapons— a nation can declare part of another nation to be its own and then defend its ill-gotten gains with nuclear weapons. Whether this is allowed to happen or not will have profound implications for nuclear proliferation and for the global system that we can’t really understand even as it is happening.
    17 points
  8. I wouldn't call what we're doing "escalation." We're increasing our support levels over time. But we're not directly involved, and most importantly, we're not leading the charge. Ukraine is in charge, and we're proving to be great allies to them in their time of need. It's like... if your friend wanted to start their own business. You want your friend to succeed, but you also know that giving money to friends just because they're a friend is bad for both business and friendships. You spend some time helping them get set up, but then it happens: They lose their day job. Now this business has to succeed or fail on its own merit. And to everyone's surprise, that prep paid off. So now you and a bunch of other friends put together an Angel round, so the business can keep going, with promises of more funds if they show they can do it. And so on. We're now at the point where the operation is really going strong, they just stole a ton of business from the same company that fired them earlier, and the competition is dumping product just to try to do ANYTHING to keep your friend from breaking through. At this point, you know they still need funding -- more than ever before, actually -- but you also have every expectation to make huge multiples of that money back on the IPO. So yeah, you're increasing your support, but you're not escalating. Because your friend is running their company, and they're the ones who make the decisions. Yeah, we're going to make scads of dough off their success, but it's still their enterprise, not ours.
    16 points
  9. They were saying that it's the most exposed area in the US when it comes to storm surge. I just found out no water made it up our block so our house and belongings are intact.
    16 points
  10. Setting aside the semantics about whether this is escalation, this is dead-on. And for that additional reason, that's why the US has handled this masterfully thus far. We have cemented our status as "the ally you really, really want to have." I mean, we even have Finland and Sanna Marin salivating over us, and THAT'S a win any way you score it. We have shown that there are two types of militaries in this world: The US military and those aligned with and backed by us, and "other." And "other" gets blown the fuck up. Among countries that matter, we have elevated our status, reliability, and desirability. An we've made a similar impression on our rivals who matter. All in the process of ALSO standing up for a sovereign nation fighting for its existence and the right of self-determination; you know, the values we have often SAID we stand for. Let's get this one across the finish line. Oh....and we will also get the benefit of largely neutering one of the world's biggest bad actors, Russia. They are going to be ill-equipped to fuck with ANYONE else for another generation, at least. I won't go CR here, but I'd be hard-pressed to think of how our leadership could be handling this situation any better. I can think of LOTS of ways they could be handling it worse.
    15 points
  11. Wordle 467 2/6* 🟩🟩🟩🟩⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 I thought it was a hole in one for a second!
    15 points
  12. We have a legitimate opportunity to do something for the future in a way no other generation has. We have a hyperpower military being used to finally say “the era of conquest is over” and have everyone on planet earth believe it because we stared down the country that is nuked to the hilt like it is nothing. Or we can say that if you are one of the lucky few countries that have nukes, take what you want. Those are two totally different futures we are building. That’s worth risking a lot to me.
    14 points
  13. This is feeling more and more like the last 3 weeks has been a full-court press of boogeymen to try and get the Ukraine to the table to make a deal. The offensive in Kharkiv/Oskil river region has demonstrated the absolute combat ineffectiveness of the RU in that region and the continued loss of territory is extremely dangerous from an internal political standpoint for Putin. To try and combat this Russia holds referendums to justify the annexation and to create the new "border" in negotiations. Then Putin mobilizes masses of troops to "storm the front" to show the image of being a military threat "Someone" (cough cough Russia) blows up NS 1 and 2 to help create instability in the energy market in Europe Putin is now stripping all the other borders to put "real troops" in as reinforcements at the front The RU is placing additional troops and new air units (all 3 of them) in Belarus to show the shadow of a new front opening near Kiev. None of these actions right now are any threat to what is currently happening in the operating theater and none of this changes the fact that Russia is in a bad spot from a supply standpoint and is limited in how those supplies can be transported to the front. All these things do is provide doubt that can be leveraged to get the Ukrainians to the table. Why would I think Putin would want an off-ramp from this idiotic war now? 5 weeks ago there were 3 routes to resupply the fronts (through Belgorod, over the Kerch bridge, and the main corridor (N from Rostov to Liski). 3 weeks ago, that went down to 2 routes with the main N/S route being 240 km from the front. Now today, that number is down to 180 km. If the Ukrainians can get to the N/S axis in line with Staroblisk, that puts the main rail artery at 80 km. The argument whether the UKA can't fire into Russia with Western weaponry due to it escalating the war sounds impressive, but one massive HIMARS strike to in essence cripple the RU supply lines, which would be in an unpopulated area (that is where the various N/S bridges tend to be) makes it much more difficult to argue it is an escalation or an international incident. Losing ground is an issue, but more of losing ground as we move into winter is a much bigger problem for Russia. If the UKA can cripple the N/S main rail line out of Russia to Rostov before winter, there is not enough available throughput over the Kerch bridge to heat, feed, water, resupply, and support the entire front and Crimea.
    14 points
  14. The people of Ukraine have been risking their lives and the lives of their children and families to stop this motherfucker. Sorry you lack the balls they have. You gotta die somehow. Doing standing up like a man.
    13 points
  15. this may be the ultimate reason i murder you.
    13 points
  16. You sound like me in 2014. A Lot has changed . It's completely different now. Ukraine rejected Russian Corruption, and got thier shit together as a democracy. They have proved thier right to be a free country. Putin did a great job destabilizing the West with propaganda, but not as well as he thought. And he waited to long regarding the US Potus. Putin has openly stated his goals and appeasement is only kicking the can down the road until the Russians rebuild. Unless Putin is removed, all of Ukraine belongs to Ukraine. Full stop. Otherwise other countries are next such as Moldova.
    12 points
  17. My money is on Macy's. They haven't been able to compete with the quality of Nordstrom for the last decade.
    12 points
  18. Just a daily reminder of why we're so committed to ending Putin's reign.
    12 points
  19. Wordle 467 2/6 🟩⬜🟩⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
    12 points
  20. another poster suggested this thread should be renamed since "destination" has worn out. How about: Vince Young Perpetual Appreciation Thread
    12 points
  21. His "off ramp" is to get the fuck all the way out of Ukraine. Or death. Doesn't matter to me.
    11 points
  22. 11 points
  23. Have spotty internet so haven’t been able to read how others are hoping for the best. Rode it out in Naples far enough inland No surge. All good, no power and generator died. Will wait for better internet to read up and post more
    11 points
  24. You just described the third act of Rochelle, Rochelle.
    11 points
  25. 11 points
  26. Naming winter storms is the epitome of shock journalism.
    11 points
  27. Quick work! Wordle 467 3/6* 🟩🟨[emoji834]🟨[emoji834] 🟩🟩🟩🟩[emoji834] 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
    11 points
  28. Wordle 467 3/6 ⬜⬜🟩⬜⬜ 🟩⬜⬜⬜🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Daily Quordle 248 3️⃣4️⃣ 6️⃣8️⃣ quordle.com 🟨⬜⬜🟨⬜ 🟨⬜🟩⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜🟩⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟨⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜⬜🟨⬜🟨 ⬜🟨🟨⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟨⬜🟩 ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ ⬜🟩⬜🟩🟩 🟨🟨⬜⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟨🟨🟨🟨🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 #Worldle #251 3/6 (100%) 🟩🟨⬜⬜⬜➡️ 🟩🟩⬜⬜⬜↖️ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🎉 https://worldle.teuteuf.fr
    11 points
  29. Wordle 467 3/6 🟨⬜🟩⬜⬜ ⬜🟨🟩🟨⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
    11 points
  30. Wordle 467 2/6* ⬛⬛🟩⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Like a bolt out of the blue.
    11 points
  31. Let me say something that laypeople probably don't realize. If you closely watch any legal proceeding, a trial, a hearing, etc. as we're doing to these things, it's a whipsaw, even for the lawyers participating. And having a rooting interest in the outcome makes it that much worse. Lawyers trying a case have to listen to the other side, almost uninterrupted, for hours and days. it can kind of beat you down and you feel like you're losing, Then you get your turn, and it's quite the opposite. Euphoric. We just fucking kicked their ass. The truth lies somewhere in the middle, and hopefully closer to your view than not. It's a very bipolar experience, except maybe in something like the Alex Jones trials. Those kind of nonstop asswhippings of the opponent are rare. Even when the "opponent" is a clear piece of shit, like Alex Jones, it's a really special case where they fuck it up that bad. So, it's up, it's down, it's a lot of "woohoo" and "aw fuck." Winning and losing battles before you win the war. And so many times, the win comes in a way you never originally envisioned and might momentarily want to call a loss or a Pyrrhic victory. So, as a lawyer, you learn not to get too wrapped up in the little victories and setbacks along the way and keep moving toward the end goal.
    10 points
  32. I agree with all of that. The note I would add is I dont think the Afghan conflict went south for us. Losing one soul over there was too many, but 1,900 US service members in 20 years to hostile action is a lot lower than many thought going in, considering we were in a guerilla war. Gulf War 1, going over the burm, a buddy told me he was told "1 of 2", meaning when they went in, the CO's were told to expect 50% casualty rate going in initially. Fast forward to Afghan, and we performed exceptionally well IMO. The exit was messy, that may be what you meant, if so , i agree, but really there were few options w/o going all CR. We wrecked shop on ISIS and the Taliban, something the RU army never could accomplish. Our boys over there were nails all things considered. Those people dont want peace, its not in their DNA.
    10 points
  33. "The reports of the West's death were greatly exaggerated." ~ Javelin Himars
    10 points
  34. I don’t see it as US escalation, it is the US and our allies responding to the actions that Russia has taken. They invade, we sanction and provide weapons and training. They bomb a shelter we provide anti aircraft systems. They shell houses, we provide HIMARS. We bring the Find Out to the Russian Fuck Around party.
    10 points
  35. A players only meeting? In week 4 of season 2? That seems way ahead of schedule and is usually the kiss of death, followed only by the dreaded vote of confidence press release by the AD.
    10 points
  36. My daughter (no pics) is 18 and wants to be a vet. We all know that, tragically, aggy has the top vet school in state. I am a big believer in letting my older kids make their own decisions without too much chatter from me, within sensible limits, of course. Since attending that college for vet school was not quite life threatening, I held my tongue when she went up to aggieland for a visit. I needn’t have worried. Everything about tge town and the school and the campus and the student body contributed to a violent case of the nopes. It’s hard wired into her, apparently. I was so proud of her. oh well, Lubbock/ out of state here we come.
    10 points
  37. it took one day for Amazon to get me this book, and one day to read it. I can’t express how this book explains absolutely everything about the current conflict - and the behavior and success of the Russian army. It also describes perfectly the sort of immoral, selfish, both bully and victim at the same time existence which is apparently the essence of the Russian soul. I can’t recommend it more highly. It is the semi-autobiography of a young law student from Moscow who fought in Chechnya. The culture of the military is so far worse than I imagined. I almost felt sorry for him /them it was so horrible. But I realized that there was zero will to change, they need to own all of this.
    10 points
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