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Posted (edited)
On 6/9/2025 at 12:51 PM, UTPhil2006 said:

10 year squeaking down bit by bit today. Down .036 and counting 

Down another .065 today. Not too shabby for back to back days. 

Edited by UTPhil2006
Posted
1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

This falls into the “don’t believe your lying eyes” category.  Inflation is rampant right now, whether the data show it or not.  I’ve seen it in restaurants, grocery stores, and online shopping.

I think it probably shows up in perishables first, to whatever extent they are exposed to tariffs, because they have to be purchased wholesale much closer to the date of retail sale.  WalMart can warehouse an immense amount of paper towels, but a lot of food just doesn't fit that model.

I make my older dog's food and just got back from the store.  Her blueberries have probably gone up 50% in the last year or so.

Posted
4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I make my older dog's food and just got back from the store.  Her blueberries have probably gone up 50% in the last year or so.

Just wait till ICE finishes up at Home Depot gets around to agricultural workers

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Posted
This falls into the “don’t believe your lying eyes” category.  Inflation is rampant right now, whether the data show it or not.  I’ve seen it in restaurants, grocery stores, and online shopping.  My favorite coffee went up 50 percent in price on line…

And jobs? My personal conservative estimate is that $150B in salaries have been eliminated or offshored or AI’d in 2025.

I don't believe any government figures.
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Posted
5 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Inflation came in very tame- below expectations. Tariffs were supposed to be a huge tax on consumers and yet it’s not showing up in any of the data as of yet, though predicted to for a couple months now (still think they are dumb- again/ but the experts are taking another L so far here) 

Jobs overperformed so that didn’t help the interest rate market last week, but stop me if you’ve heard this before they revised prior two months down 90k, the market shrugs and sells off so we get to ride the roller coaster again. 

When I was out in LA for a mortgage junket the head of the DC branch said they are working on some banking deregulation as it relates to banks owning 10 year treasuries that should be really good for the 10 year market/ disagreements as to whether it will be more like 40 bips or more like 70 bips. After I heard that in LA Habib started talking about that a week or so ago.

 
Finally, spread between mortgage rates and 10 year topped out at 3 or so last year. It’s at 2.5 more or less right now. Historically that number is 2. As some of the volatility is sucked out of the market that number should continue to tighten to historical norms around 2. 


I know everyone here likes to talk about omg the sky is falling because that’s fun,  but there are some green shoots for the industry right now and if this stuff all comes to pass we could be looking at 5.5-6 depending upon how much the spread tightens up and how much the deregulation helps. 


That’s the optimist case for housing/interest rates. 

I’m fully prepared now for a negative run and everyone cussing me and saying it’s all my fault. 

I agree with this. 

4 hours ago, Incredulity said:

economic hottake warning

 

Tariff retail pricing impacts are going to be a slow bleed.  Huge amount of front loading of inventory went on in Q4 and Q1.  Retailers are loathe to raise prices and thumping on suppliers to maintain costs.  It will happen, but its going to take time.

So I don't expect a OMG inflation report any time soon.  OMG being over 4% give or take.

I also agree with this. 

The 10 year is going to be on a strange yo-yo for the next two years imo. 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, BearSchlong said:


And jobs? My personal conservative estimate is that $150B in salaries have been eliminated or offshored or AI’d in 2025.

I don't believe any government figures.

The first tip off on jobs should have been that they’ve revised lower eleventy billion of the last eleventy billion reports. 
According to Habib the CPI guys are literally just guessing. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, BearSchlong said:

don't believe any government figures.

From Sam Ro’s TKer newsletter this past Sunday:

 

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday:

Due to minor errors to weights associated with the introduction of a redesigned Current Population Survey (CPS) sample, some April 2025 estimates will be corrected on June 6, 2025. Major labor force measures, such as the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment–population ratio were unaffected. While corrections will be made to many estimates, the impact is negligible.

In April 2025, the CPS began to phase in a redesigned sample that is based on information from the 2020 Census. During the introduction of this new sample in April, a derived geographic variable used in the weighting process was miscoded, treating micropolitan areas like metropolitan areas, which led to misapplied noninterview weights for some cases.

That doesn’t instill confidence.

It didn’t end there.

Here’s the The Wall Street Journal on a BLS notice published on Wednesday:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the office that publishes the inflation rate, told outside economists this week that a hiring freeze at the agency was forcing the survey to cut back on the number of businesses where it checks prices. In last month’s inflation report, which examined prices in April, government statisticians had to use a less precise method for guessing price changes more extensively than they did in the past.

Economists say the staffing shortage raises questions about the quality of recent and coming inflation reports. There is no sign of an intentional effort to publish false or misleading statistics. But any problems with the data could have major implications for the economy.

None of that’s not great.

“These errors have consequences,” UBS’s Paul Donovan wrote on Friday. “Less understanding of U.S. inflation increases the chances of the Federal Reserve making a policy error (especially with the mantra of ‘data dependency’).”

The news only adds to ongoing concerns about the quality of government data, which relies on extensive surveys and analysis of those surveys.

Posted
On 6/11/2025 at 8:33 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

Inflation came in very tame- below expectations. Tariffs were supposed to be a huge tax on consumers and yet it’s not showing up in any of the data as of yet, though predicted to for a couple months now (still think they are dumb- again/ but the experts are taking another L so far here) 

Wanted to ping back on this after reading another datapoint that I can't help but infer a correlation with the "very tame" BLS numbers:

https://www.napa-net.org/news/2025/6/latest-2026-social-security-cola-projection-holds-steady/

Quote

Meanwhile, TSCL noted that the BLS faces unprecedented challenges collecting data for the price index used to calculate the COLA. The organization pointed to an article in The Wall Street Journal, which reported that a hiring freeze at the agency has forced the Consumer Price Index program to cut back on the number of businesses where it measures prices. In April, the agency said it had used a less accurate method for estimating prices more than usual, due to a shortage of workers, and it has stopped collecting consumer inflation data in three cities.

And problems with CPI data could spell problems for American seniors, the organization emphasized. “While streamlining the federal government is a good thing, that shouldn’t involve cutting back on our ability to measure how our economy is changing,” observed TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton. “Inaccurate or unreliable data in the CPI dramatically increases the likelihood that seniors receive a COLA that’s lower than actual inflation, which can cost seniors thousands of dollars over the course of their retirement.”

To that point, according to TSCL’s 2025 Senior Survey, which the organization plans to release this week, 80% of seniors thought 2024’s inflation was over 3%, which is higher than this year’s COLA of 2.5%. A COLA that comes in under inflation would set seniors back for the rest of their retirement, as Social Security checks compound over time with each additional COLA, TSCL further noted.  

If inflation is artificially marked lower than is actually happening, and they're able to successfully hide behind the excuse of "we fired everyone who used to collect that data", they can claim they've lowered inflation and reduced spending on SSA while reducing benefits without cutting spending. It's a backdoor way to starve the system out and pay out less and less to retirees.

Posted

listed a nice home yesterday.  1,150,000.  Within two hours, so asshole sends me a blind offer for 865k.  

I texted the motherfucker.  "Thanks for the offer.  You wasted your time writing it, and now you're wasting my time making me present a ridiculous offer that's only going to piss off my seller" 

Posted
1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

listed a nice home yesterday.  1,150,000.  Within two hours, so asshole sends me a blind offer for 865k.  

I texted the motherfucker.  "Thanks for the offer.  You wasted your time writing it, and now you're wasting my time making me present a ridiculous offer that's only going to piss off my seller" 

Why is he an asshole?  Do you expect that he not follow the request of his client to lowball yours?

Posted
2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Why is he an asshole?  Do you expect that he not follow the request of his client to lowball yours?

it wasn't an agent.  It was an asshole representing himself. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

it wasn't an agent.  It was an asshole representing himself. 

Ah, I see.  I didn’t realize agents took that so personally.  I get hard shopped probably 50% of the time lately and life is just too short to get upset over it.  

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Posted
2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Ah, I see.  I didn’t realize agents took that so personally.  I get hard shopped probably 50% of the time lately and life is just too short to get upset over it.  

I value my time.  I don't waste other people's time, and I don't like people to waste mine.  The 10 minutes I spent on this offer I could have been jacking off, or posting on surly, or doing both at the same time. 

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Posted
13 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Ah, I see.  I didn’t realize agents took that so personally.  I get hard shopped probably 50% of the time lately and life is just too short to get upset over it.  

As. @UT_OB1 can attest you're gonna get those and it is your fiduciary duty to let your client know. Now if you add a "fuck these guys" that's on you. 

Posted
2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

As. @UT_OB1 can attest you're gonna get those and it is your fiduciary duty to let your client know. Now if you add a "fuck these guys" that's on you. 

Yep. Gotten a few of those the last several months. I personally would politely say no or laugh at I most of the time, but they’re trying to hit someone desperate, uninformed, or senile so I would completely understand if someone unloaded all their frustration on them. 

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Posted (edited)

I usually try to get a baseline number that they won't even look at from my sellers that gives me the right to say they are not interested without wasting their time or mine. 

Edit:  or that baseline number will give me permission to respond with full price counter and that usually shuts things down with a quickness

 

Edited by Catpfish
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Posted
1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's a 25% discount.  What level of discount doesn't piss you off?

Maybe it’s not the amount of the discount, it’s who is making it.  
 

I bet @Gil Bang doesn’t call the buxom travel nurse who wants his ADU and mentions “btw, I like to sunbathe nude if that’s okay” an asshole if she asks for a discount….

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Posted
3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't understand why it matters who the offer comes from, but this isn't my industry.  I think I've had 20%-25% lowball offers on virtually every house I've sold.

It just gets tiresome from wholesalers. But I at least take some solace in the fact they take 20-30 min to type up that bullshit offer 

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