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Afghan War ending, foretold by The Onion 10 years Ago [DT thread ruined by politics]


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15 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

What I'm confused about geopolitically is Afghanistan's relationship to the rest of the Arab brothers. The Middle East seem to look at each other communally, in some ways, that Afghanistan doesn't get the benefit of.

Tell me you never studied International Relations or Middle Eastern history without telling me you never studies International Relations or Middle Eastern history 

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32 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Are you arguing that Biden and Cheney had equal amounts of influence with respect to foreign policy decisions or military engagement within their administrations while VP?

whos that an indictment of?  they both held the same title.

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19 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Afghans aren't Arabs.

Thanks again, in my quick reading up of this, it appears Afghans are more closely and ethnically Persian (and neighbor Iran), than obviously Arab. I guess same question, but substitute Iran. Why hasn't Iran helped Afghanistan through incentivized alignment and partnership (aka financial profit and political strength) to get out of the stone ages and build a wealthy national state on the backs of natural resources the rest of the world needs? They've shown you can do this and still be a theocratic Muslim monarchy.

Because now all that mineral wealth and lithium demand that China will rape and pillage from Afghanistan is going to fund more hundreds of billions into China's anti-west, anti-American coffers and they are already doing well enough with the full control their government affords them.

Oh well, nevertheless.

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3 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

Thanks again, in my quick reading up of this, it appears Afghans are more closely and ethnically Persian (and neighbor Iran), than obviously Arab. I guess same question, but substitute Iran. Why hasn't Iran helped Afghanistan through incentivized alignment and partnership (aka financial profit and political strength) to get out of the stone ages and build a wealthy national state on the backs of natural resources the rest of the world needs? They've shown you can do this and still be a theocratic Muslim monarchy.

One reason is Shia vs. Sunni. The Iranian's did invest, but only in the West. Herat was closely tied to trade with Iran. 

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“The only known execution since the capital’s Sunday takeover was of Abu Omar Khorasani, the former head of Islamic State in South Asia, who was taken by the Taliban from an Afghan government prison and killed on the spot, according to officials. A photo of his body was later posted on social media.”

Anyone know why the Taliban executed this terrorist?


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1 minute ago, 52-80 said:

whos that an indictment of?  they both held the same title.

It’s not necessarily an indictment of anyone, but merely holding the title of VP doesn’t grant you influence over either foreign policy or use of military forces. Cheney held a unique role in the W Bush administration and had outsized influence on the decisions to go to war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Ignoring that reality merely bc both were VP is dumb. 

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4 minutes ago, XYZ said:

No, it didn’t.

I'll give you that.  It's a topic for debate, but not on this thread.  We're in - and this is how to get out as best we can without subjecting tens of thousands of American and Afghani people to mass murder

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1 hour ago, Balcones said:

We haven’t had an AQ attack on US soil since 9/11/01.

But we’ve armed every police department in the country with MRAPs and other military grade weaponry as though another one was coming at anyplace, anytime. And once they had them they had to find reasons to use them. 

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23 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I have seen over 10, under 20K. Lots of NGOs were still operational outside of Kabul. 

Yep.  NGO's and contractors along with the logistical wagon train that is the US military.  Journalists, volunteers, even teachers

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5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Donkey is doing a dumb troll bit again, apparently. That or he has less understanding of how the world works than your average 5-year-old.

Dude, what? I asked a question, someone informed me I had a mistake about my premise, and I thanked them and revised the question, to which someone who is clearly very informed and sharp on the regional politics and history had a good answer.

But yea, sorry I didn't double major in Middle Eastern Studies and International Politics and don't read international news enough for you (or a 5 year old?) and that means I'm a troll.

OR you are just being petty and haughty that you are smart and well-informed on a specific subject and your frenemies on the internet are not. Cool. You are cool.

 

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25 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Bullshit.  Going into Afghanistan at the time made sense.  We made amazing strides and stood up hundreds of thousands of pro-western Afghanis.  You are trying to make this a slippery slope into never being in the country in the first place - that is a completely separate argument. 

Let's break down this utterly shitty paragraph.

Other than a handful of people here, nobody is arguing against the idea of having taken ANY action in Afghanistan.  The consensus is that we should have taken out AQ, gotten OBL, and probably taken out Taliban forces and sites that helped AQ.  The criticism is for us embarking on a foolish "occupation and nation-building" mission.  Because....

We didn't make amazing strides and stand anyone up.  We propped up some forces who could be bought/coerced.  As soon as we were gone, that vanished -- poof.  That's not progress.  It was all illusory.

So, I'm certainly not promoting a slippery slope -- however, you set up a NIFTY straw man, if we're talking fallacies.  And you also seem to be one of the only people who still believes in some sort of illusion that a single thing we did as far as nation-building mattered.

31 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

We were in.  And the correct call was made to extricate ourselves.  That is the topic at hand.  HOW we facilitated this.  Let's forget for the moment tens of thousands of Afghanis that we abandoned.  I saw this AM that they are estimating there are close to TEN THOUSAND American citizens in country RIGHT NOW.  Not soldiers.  Citizens.  If they start finding them in mass and executing them in the streets, it will be a crisis unparalleled in the modern era of this country.  

I don't disagree.  We have botched and are botching the exit process.  The failure to properly plan for that spans two admins.  The obligation to get it right falls on just the current one -- the buck stops there, that's the way it works.  We have to get our people out.  We also need to get people who put their asses on the line serving us out.  Our future credibility as an ally is absolutely on the line.

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15 minutes ago, Travo said:

“The only known execution since the capital’s Sunday takeover was of Abu Omar Khorasani, the former head of Islamic State in South Asia, who was taken by the Taliban from an Afghan government prison and killed on the spot, according to officials. A photo of his body was later posted on social media.”

Anyone know why the Taliban executed this terrorist?


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That’s not accurate.

 

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1 hour ago, lmao said:

The Kalashnikov's & Toyota's aren't going anywhere.

Saw that it was billions in US hardware that was left to the extremists.  Not just Humvees and rifles.  MRAP's.  Artillery.  Mortars.  Even helicopters and drones.  Fucking drones.  You have any idea how easily they can weaponize this for attacks anywhere in the world.  Or let's forget that for a while.  I wonder what price they will fetch with our Russian, Iranian, or Chinese friends to get a sneak peak at advanced US technology?

 

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Just now, BabaYaga said:

Saw that it was billions in US hardware that was left to the extremists.  Not just Humvees and rifles.  MRAP's.  Artillery.  Mortars.  Even helicopters and drones.  Fucking drones.  You have any idea how easily they can weaponize this for attacks anywhere in the world.  Or let's forget that for a while.  I wonder what price they will fetch with our Russian, Iranian, or Chinese friends to get a sneak peak at advanced US technology?

 

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Yeah.....that's utterly stupid.  We either need to haul that shit out, or blow it up in place.  We had plenty of time to do it.  Failure to do so is bullshit.

And BTW.....WTF were the military commanders thinking/doing?  That's generally not something that's decided one way or the other at the CINC level -- this is part of the military's planning (or lack thereof).  I'm suspecting that the planning failures on this one are going to be across the damned board.

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11 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

Well that answers that then. I guess they are second class citizens of the Muslim world and thus the lack of support and help. Thanks.

The "Muslim World" doesn't have citizenship anymore than the Christian world. As far as the MidEast looking at each other communally, prior to 911 the Taliban was a pariah throughout the world, including with Muslim countries.  Everybody hated them.  Iran hated them for executing a couple of their diplomats.  It's one of the reasons that nobody made a squeak when started bombing them. Bush's big concern was where he could fly search and rescue missions out of, should any of the planes get shot down.  To everybody's surprise, Uzbekistan said sure, you can fly S&R from our airfields. Everybody hated the Taliban-led Afghanistan.  

That doesn't mean a lot of the Muslim countries where thrilled with the US colonizing the country.  (And, yeah, when you start talking about "nation building" in a way that aligns with American values and is friendly to western business...and has semi-permanent military installations, it's going to be seen as colonizing.) I'm sure there was some investment and plenty of charity from Muslim countries and individuals, but I am also sure there were folks who didn't really want to see the US be successful. 

As we are withdrawing, there are calls for Muslim-led peacekeeping forces.  I have no idea if that will go anywhere.  It's not like Pashtuns are going to be anymore thrilled with an Arab soldier policing his street, than he was with an American one.  Sharing a common religion only takes you so far, and they undoubtedly have major differences in how they interpret and practice Islam.  I remember reading about one of the Uzbek military leaders -Dostum -who was a vodka drinking nutcase. (Just looked up Dostum to confirm the name.  Apparently he was the vice president until recently.  The dude is a character.  Sure, probably a war criminal, but still an interesting guy to drink with.) 

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Anyone know why the Taliban executed this terrorist?


Because they can?


IS was trying to set up its own government. If you're setting up a government you probably don't want anyone else with a history of setting up a different government.
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Great little story... pilots of one of the transports reported he couldn't get the gear up, had to land - and found taco sauce in the wheel well.
 

Every day I have to blink again to try and return to reality from the past 72 hours. 

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah.....that's utterly stupid.  We either need to haul that shit out, or blow it up in place.  We had plenty of time to do it.  Failure to do so is bullshit.

And BTW.....WTF were the military commanders thinking/doing?  That's generally not something that's decided one way or the other at the CINC level -- this is part of the military's planning (or lack thereof).  I'm suspecting that the planning failures on this one are going to be across the damned board.

When the snap call comes down to extricate - the military leaders prioritize their number one assets first:  people.  Everything else is secondary.  They have no time nor logistical support to get all the hardware out.  We've all seen the pics of the C-17s loaded with hundreds of people.  That space to remove larger items was taken.  It creates a cascade of chaos engendered by a timeline that was impossible to make.  

This is how they train the best shooters in the SMU groups - force them to act with precision under insanely tight time parameters.  Most fail.  When you compress the timeline most people just fall apart.  This is a part of contingency planning 101.  

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The systems that bother me are the communications gear. This is a big windfall for them. Drones would not be our latest if given to the Afghan Army and Iran has a pretty solid drone program that they are already exporting. 

Weapons? Well shit, Afghanistan was already full of weapons. Concern there is they rearm their forces with the new stuff and then flood Jihadi groups in the region with the older Russian systems. Think Kashmir. Artillery and Mortars? Talibs had them in the past. That is how they leveled Kabul when they took it the first time. Vulnerable to air strikes so if they choose to use them their enemies can take them out.  Air Force? Nothing major or super complex was left.  Maybe the MD-500's, but most of the "modern" air force, like the Tucano's were flown out to countries to the north. Hummers? Shit, I hope they use them vs. the Toyotas. But I expect as they realize the fuel they suck down these get parked for the most part and only the Talib SF uses them.

It sucks and we should have destroyed the stuff at our bases, but we had no way to do it at the ANA locations once our personnel were pulled out. "Hey Amir, ya know that drone we gave you?" Please go blow it up. Amir looks at the drone, smiles and realizes he has a bargaining chip for his exit. 

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2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

It me, the guy on the internet credulously asking why countries don't just help each other out.

You read this sentence, "Why hasn't Iran helped Afghanistan through incentivized alignment and partnership (aka financial profit and political strength) to get out of the stone ages and build a wealthy national state on the backs of natural resources the rest of the world needs? They've shown you can do this and still be a theocratic Muslim monarchy." , and interpreted it in the way you just characterized it?

And you think the one trolling in this interaction is me? 

You are the one who knocks, Waltcat09.

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That’s exactly what they had to surrender for. Fight back and they all are likely to die, some getting tortured and/or raped in the process. Meanwhile the Afghani leadership who’ve been skimming money off the top of years of U.S. aid are fleeing the country. They know they can’t win. Do they fight and die for a failed cause or do they try to escape with their skin intact? What would you do?
Its a simple calculation. 

It is simple. Fighting and not fighting have the same outcome. giphy.gif
Gif is close enough….
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1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

It creates a cascade of chaos engendered by a timeline that was impossible to make.  

That's what puzzles me.  Everyone -- the admin, military command, all of them -- knew that we had a May 1 withdrawal date.  They've known that for well over a year.  That date even got pushed out.  Planning -- even on the large and small unit level -- should have been taking place during that entire period.

But we aren't seeing evidence of much of ANY planning, at any time.  By anyone.

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1 minute ago, Nivek said:

It is simple. Fighting and not fighting have the same outcome.
Gif is close enough….

No they don’t. See the video I posted above of what happened to commandos who fought back. Drop your gun, take some cash and go home and you live. Fight back and you get executed even after you surrender. 

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

That's what puzzles me.  Everyone -- the admin, military command, all of them -- knew that we had a May 1 withdrawal date.  They've known that for well over a year.  That date even got pushed out.  Planning -- even on the large and small unit level -- should have been taking place during that entire period.

But we aren't seeing evidence of much of ANY planning, at any time.  By anyone.

It's not their call to make.  We know at the highest levels military leaders pleaded with the administration but no steps were taken until it was too late.  That's the entire point.  It's a civilian army controlled by an elected, civilian leader.  They can't just do all this on their own and make their own plans.  These global implication type moves come from the CIF, not the generals who can only advise.  Eisenhower planned Operation Neptune, but only when directed and supported by FDR and Marshal who were kept in the loop every step of the way.  He didn't just do it on his own volition.  

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14 minutes ago, elfenix said:


 


Because they can?


IS was trying to set up its own government. If you're setting up a government you probably don't want anyone else with a history of setting up a different government.

*looks around conservative factions of America*

Mark Cuban GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

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Saw that it was billions in US hardware that was left to the extremists.  Not just Humvees and rifles.  MRAP's.  Artillery.  Mortars.  Even helicopters and drones.  Fucking drones.  You have any idea how easily they can weaponize this for attacks anywhere in the world.  Or let's forget that for a while.  I wonder what price they will fetch with our Russian, Iranian, or Chinese friends to get a sneak peak at advanced US technology?
 
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Why the fuck would we not destroy all that shit?

We knew damn well that our Afghans were going to lay down at some point.
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6 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said:

I saw Ford Crown Victoria circa 1995 on clip from Kabul yesterday.   Maybe its an old police cruiser from the Mt Prospect Illinois Police Dept?   

That would suck.   Because if I was fleeing Kabul for my life, and saw the distinctive front end of a Crown Vic behind me, I would instinctively slow down to avoid getting a ticket.  Old habits die hard.

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It doesn't really sound like we left anything all that important or that they couldn't readily get from other sources. I'm betting we left them with the hopes of them getting used by the Afghanies but if they tucked tail and ran, it woudn't be the end of the world.

I'd bet those drones have some kind of backdoor in them that once we detect them in the air, we send it into the side of a mountain remotely.

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42 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

It’s not necessarily an indictment of anyone, but merely holding the title of VP doesn’t grant you influence over either foreign policy or use of military forces. Cheney held a unique role in the W Bush administration and had outsized influence on the decisions to go to war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Ignoring that reality merely bc both were VP is dumb. 

If anything, it's an indictment on W for being too stupid to be president and giving Cheney way more power than a VP is meant to hold. But nevertheless, VPs can play whatever role the president assigns, so comparing administrations based on title isn't real helpful. I did find it interesting that Biden said in his speech yesterday that he opposed "the Surge" that happened under Obama, which I assume can be proven, so at least he's been consistent since then.

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Source?

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/14/pentagon-biden-team-overrode-afghanistan-481556

I heard at least 3 congressmen (both parties)on TV last night who are in on the intelligence briefings/inner circle say the same thing.  If it's not 100% guaranteed, it's certainly all around political circles that he did.

Of course this will all have to be sorted out with time - rumors and bullshit are flying all over right now, but Politico isn't some hack rag.  It certainly seems now like he both got shitty advice and ignored the good advice he didn't like.

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1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

You seriously need a source that Biden went against the suggestions of even his most senior advisors on handling the extrication of Afghanistan?  Even CNN has articles on this.  

Yes.  I need a source for your specific statement that at the highest levels, military officials were pleading with the admin about the two things we've been discussing this past page: 1) treatment of military equipment, and 2) extrication of friendlies.

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On a more positive note - the Taliban appear to be leaving the airport alone.  Saving thousands of lives were they to go all in.  They want us out, and appear to be allowing this.

They really want to be seen as the peacemakers and a legitimate government that follows some sort of rule of law. They have declared the war to be over. We have declared that our mission is only for evacuation purposes. For them to attack the airport would lose, instantly, all the credibility they are trying to gain. Also, Turkey and Azerbaijan now have troops there.

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6 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

It's not their call to make.  We know at the highest levels military leaders pleaded with the administration but no steps were taken until it was too late.  That's the entire point.  It's a civilian army controlled by an elected, civilian leader.  They can't just do all this on their own and make their own plans. 

I never served, so I'm very uninformed on this.  Are you saying the military leader on the ground at base didn't have the authority/ability to destroy this stuff?  I'm totally not disagreeing with you.  Just trying to learn.

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This ain't the Paris climate deal, bro. Scrapping this one means the Taliban starts sending hails of bullets at our people and puts some of them in Arlington.
It's easy to forget that foreign parties negotiate with the United States, not just with Joe Biden or Donald Trump.
I hear ya. But the original date was supposed to be around May. So obviously we talked to or the Taliban were nice enough to give us more time. So why not use that time wisely?

Either way just own it your part of the shit sandwich.
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1 minute ago, phdhorn said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/14/pentagon-biden-team-overrode-afghanistan-481556

I heard at least 3 congressmen (both parties)on TV last night who are in on the intelligence briefings/inner circle say the same thing.  If it's not 100% guaranteed, it's certainly all around political circles that he did.

Of course this will all have to be sorted out with time - rumors and bullshit are flying all over right now, but Politico isn't some hack rag.  It certainly seems now like he both got shitty advice and ignored the good advice he didn't like.

It's been all over the news.  Congressmen.  Former military leaders.  Tons of people saying the same thing - that he ignored their advice completely.  

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  • immamac changed the title to Afghan War ending, foretold by The Onion 10 years Ago [DT thread ruined by politics]


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