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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I cannot for the life of me understand why every team isn’t putting together a tush push package. 

Maybe because for all the glory it brings to the Eagles, you see other NFL teams struggle to consistently execute it.  A lot don't even try at all.   Part of it is how well the Eagles O-line does what they do (a bunch of our guys just went straight to the ground on Sunday with no forward drive), but also don't forget Jalen Hurts is a super freak when it comes to leg strength for a QB...believe he squats 600+ when he cares to max out.  

Edited by Surly Bevo
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Posted
1 minute ago, Surly Bevo said:

Maybe because for all the glory it brings to the Eagles, you see other NFL teams struggle to consistently execute it.  A lot don't even try at all.   Part of it is how well the Eagles O-line does what they do (a bunch of our guys just went straight to the ground on Sunday with no forward drive), but also don't forget Jalen Hurts is a super freak when it comes to leg strength for a QB...believe he squats 600+ when he cares to max out.  

but it doesn't even need to be a QB, just practice it and sell out on it. Everyone knows it's coming so it doesn't matter if it's Arch, Endries, whomever is your strongest lower body guy 

Posted
image.thumb.png.14181d44349de00daa0643325379bd40.png
helmet communication was still active at the snap...

The way everyone lined up was wild. OSU lined up offsides, the middle of the line leaned in like it was a fg, there wasn’t gonna be a hole there anyway. I wanted to see the snap between the legs.
Posted
5 hours ago, Pam Cummings said:

The QB sneak wasn't even the worst call. It was the multiple QB draw plays out of shotgun right before that I didn't like. You should be able to get a TD on a QB sneak from the 1.

 

Google says that a QB sneak on the 1 yard line has an 80-90% success rate fwiw.

I will say the one draw if Arch cuts it outside instead of inside he might score.  I like those, though I think more of a zone read/RPO is a better call.  He probably didn't trust Arch to make a throw so we ran it 4 times.

bottom line is we get stuffed a lot by better teams.  Sark needs more creativity inside the 10 to 15 if we are going to take the next step.

Posted
3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I will say the one draw if Arch cuts it outside instead of inside he might score.  I like those, though I think more of a zone read/RPO is a better call.  He probably didn't trust Arch to make a throw so we ran it 4 times.

bottom line is we get stuffed a lot by better teams.  Sark needs more creativity inside the 10 to 15 if we are going to take the next step.

 

 

Posted
12 hours ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

Guy is 50 years old and has the best job in football.  What makes you think he’s eager and willing to change.  

Is this a real question? I don’t know if he eager or willing. But pretty sure history says he’s capable of making changes. 

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Posted (edited)

Down a Rabbit Hole | Opening Drive Results + Ball 1st or 2nd? - Vogel

Spoiler

CJ Vogel

By CJ Vogel

  • 4 minutes ago
 

Interesting Numbers Around Texas' Opening Offensive Possessions

In the preparation for big matchups, you will often hear folks like myself say it is imperative for the Longhorns to get out to a strong start offensively and get ahead to set the tone. I have even pushed for Sarkisian to take the ball first in key rivalry games to silence the crowd as a result of leaning on the reputable opening script that we often hear about with Steve Sarkisian.

But that will no longer be the case.

Nope.

Won't hear that sentiment from me ahead of these top-25 meetings or prime SEC games. In fact, I have shifted my tone, fully supported by the numbers, which leave no room for second-guessing.

***

But to those numbers. I went back to the beginning of 2023, since Sarkisian has been surrounded by "College Football Playoff" talent for the conclusions ahead.

Since week one of 2023, there have been 31 games for the Texas Longhorns. Meaning, there have been 31 first drives of the game for the Texas offense.

Here is the breakdown for how those 31 drives have ended.

  • 31 Drives
  • 12 punts (38.71%)
  • 9 touchdowns (29.03%)
  • 5 interceptions (16.13%)
  • 3 turnover on downs (9.68%)
  • 2 field goal attempts ... both missed (6.45%)

Now there is quite a bit of data here. Plenty to break down and I will try to do just that in as simple terms as possible.

First, there is not a readily available statistic to provide averages of opening drives in college football. But, I did run down some of the more notable teams in 2024 to find both the success rate on touchdowns on opening drives and points in general.

  • Oregon: 64.3% touchdowns ... 78.5% points
  • Notre Dame: 56.3 touchdowns ... 62.5% points
  • Ohio State: 50.0% touchdowns ... 62.5% points
  • Penn State: 31.3% touchdowns ... 50.0% points
  • Texas: 31.3% touchdowns ... 31.3% points
  • Alabama: 30.8% touchdowns ... 46.2% points
  • LSU: 30.8% touchdowns ... 30.8% points
  • Georgia: 28.6% touchdowns... 28.6% points

Again, I don't have nation-wide statistics for opening drive results, but just a small sample size of teams with comparable talent to Texas and how they fared in this part of the game.

But while doing my research here, there was a pretty significant discrepancy in result on opening drives for whether or not the drive itself was the first of the actual game.

***
Opening Drive of Game vs. 2nd Drive of Game

In those 31 games for Texas, the Longhorns received the opening kickoff 19 times and kicked off 12 times. Here are the TD numbers for each.

  • TD on Opening Drive After Receiving Opening Kickoff: 2/19 (10.53%)
  • TD on Opening Drive After Kicking Off First: 7/12 ... (58.33%)

Now that certainly feels like a noteworthy statistic.

*** 
In Big Games

Doing a deeper dive at the Longhorns biggest games of the last three years, I came up with this grouping:

  • 2023 Alabama
  • 2023 Oklahoma
  • 2023 Kansas State
  • 2023 OK State
  • 2023 Washington
  • 2024 Michigan
  • 2024 Oklahoma
  • 2024 Georgia
  • 2024 Texas A&M
  • 2024 Georgia Pt. 2
  • 2024 Clemson
  • 2024 Arizona State
  • 2024 Ohio State
  • 2025 Ohio State

That is a 14-game grouping of the biggest games Texas has played over the last three years. Completely subjective. But the numbers remain on opening possessions.

  • 14 Drives
  • 5 punts (35.71%)
  • 3 touchdowns (21.43%)
  • 3 interceptions (21.43%)
  • 2 turnover on downs (14.28%)
  • 1 field goal attempts ... missed (7.14%)

In those 14 games, Texas received the opening kickoff nine times and promptly putting up zero points and turning the ball over five times with a missed field goal also in the mix.

In the five possessions seeing the ball 2nd in those games, the Longhorns have converted 60% of those drives into touchdowns.

***

Kick the Ball Off Every Time 

That is the suggestion. If given the choice, put your defense on the field.

The numbers are overwhelmingly favorable for the Texas offense when the defense starts the game on the field. 

We will see how the remainder of the season plays out and what type of identity the Texas Longhorn offense adopts, but the numbers are clearly in favor of the defense getting on the field first if Texas is looking to start their first possession with points. 

 

Edited by MuellerHorn
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Posted

In the Sark era, our defense has improved and is championship quality, our offense has stagnated and is top 25/nice bowl game quality.  hopefully our D can pitch a shutout or give up fewer that 10 points.

we don't have a Blue or Worthy/Golden this year.  gonna be a bit rough going.

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Posted
13 hours ago, JOSEYWALES66 said:

Hopefully if we are in the same situation again we use the exact same formation (even with Arch setting up with the offset legs) and we pass. 

A guy can hope can’t he?

RnsV81.gif

Posted
13 hours ago, Chad said:

image.png.8c8a7edd617a2ad31d626ea024757ee8.png

He needs to think a little harder on his daily walks. 
 

What’s most discouraging to me from a QB guru is repeatedly having QBs with awful mechanics. Seems like something that would a focal point. 

Posted
11 hours ago, MuellerHorn said:

Down a Rabbit Hole | Opening Drive Results + Ball 1st or 2nd? - Vogel

  Hide contents

CJ Vogel

By CJ Vogel

  • 4 minutes ago
 

Interesting Numbers Around Texas' Opening Offensive Possessions

In the preparation for big matchups, you will often hear folks like myself say it is imperative for the Longhorns to get out to a strong start offensively and get ahead to set the tone. I have even pushed for Sarkisian to take the ball first in key rivalry games to silence the crowd as a result of leaning on the reputable opening script that we often hear about with Steve Sarkisian.

But that will no longer be the case.

Nope.

Won't hear that sentiment from me ahead of these top-25 meetings or prime SEC games. In fact, I have shifted my tone, fully supported by the numbers, which leave no room for second-guessing.

***

But to those numbers. I went back to the beginning of 2023, since Sarkisian has been surrounded by "College Football Playoff" talent for the conclusions ahead.

Since week one of 2023, there have been 31 games for the Texas Longhorns. Meaning, there have been 31 first drives of the game for the Texas offense.

Here is the breakdown for how those 31 drives have ended.

  • 31 Drives
  • 12 punts (38.71%)
  • 9 touchdowns (29.03%)
  • 5 interceptions (16.13%)
  • 3 turnover on downs (9.68%)
  • 2 field goal attempts ... both missed (6.45%)

Now there is quite a bit of data here. Plenty to break down and I will try to do just that in as simple terms as possible.

First, there is not a readily available statistic to provide averages of opening drives in college football. But, I did run down some of the more notable teams in 2024 to find both the success rate on touchdowns on opening drives and points in general.

  • Oregon: 64.3% touchdowns ... 78.5% points
  • Notre Dame: 56.3 touchdowns ... 62.5% points
  • Ohio State: 50.0% touchdowns ... 62.5% points
  • Penn State: 31.3% touchdowns ... 50.0% points
  • Texas: 31.3% touchdowns ... 31.3% points
  • Alabama: 30.8% touchdowns ... 46.2% points
  • LSU: 30.8% touchdowns ... 30.8% points
  • Georgia: 28.6% touchdowns... 28.6% points

Again, I don't have nation-wide statistics for opening drive results, but just a small sample size of teams with comparable talent to Texas and how they fared in this part of the game.

But while doing my research here, there was a pretty significant discrepancy in result on opening drives for whether or not the drive itself was the first of the actual game.

***
Opening Drive of Game vs. 2nd Drive of Game

In those 31 games for Texas, the Longhorns received the opening kickoff 19 times and kicked off 12 times. Here are the TD numbers for each.

  • TD on Opening Drive After Receiving Opening Kickoff: 2/19 (10.53%)
  • TD on Opening Drive After Kicking Off First: 7/12 ... (58.33%)

Now that certainly feels like a noteworthy statistic.

*** 
In Big Games

Doing a deeper dive at the Longhorns biggest games of the last three years, I came up with this grouping:

  • 2023 Alabama
  • 2023 Oklahoma
  • 2023 Kansas State
  • 2023 OK State
  • 2023 Washington
  • 2024 Michigan
  • 2024 Oklahoma
  • 2024 Georgia
  • 2024 Texas A&M
  • 2024 Georgia Pt. 2
  • 2024 Clemson
  • 2024 Arizona State
  • 2024 Ohio State
  • 2025 Ohio State

That is a 14-game grouping of the biggest games Texas has played over the last three years. Completely subjective. But the numbers remain on opening possessions.

  • 14 Drives
  • 5 punts (35.71%)
  • 3 touchdowns (21.43%)
  • 3 interceptions (21.43%)
  • 2 turnover on downs (14.28%)
  • 1 field goal attempts ... missed (7.14%)

In those 14 games, Texas received the opening kickoff nine times and promptly putting up zero points and turning the ball over five times with a missed field goal also in the mix.

In the five possessions seeing the ball 2nd in those games, the Longhorns have converted 60% of those drives into touchdowns.

***

Kick the Ball Off Every Time 

That is the suggestion. If given the choice, put your defense on the field.

The numbers are overwhelmingly favorable for the Texas offense when the defense starts the game on the field. 

We will see how the remainder of the season plays out and what type of identity the Texas Longhorn offense adopts, but the numbers are clearly in favor of the defense getting on the field first if Texas is looking to start their first possession with points. 

 

Maybe bc I'm a numbers guy, but this is far more sobering to me over a film rewatch bro showing OSU knew every wr route on every play on week 1.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, BurgleBro said:

Maybe bc I'm a numbers guy, but this is far more sobering to me over a film rewatch bro showing OSU knew every wr route on every play on week 1.

After every major game it seems like we see or hear this. I remember multiple times over the last few years people thought our signals were getting stolen or they knew the plays before snap somehow. But I think it’s more what the film guy has pointed out this week that the book is kind out on Sark and his tendencies.
 

Yes it still works on lesser opponents but when it comes to elite opponents it just doesn’t. 

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Posted
9 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

After every major game it seems like we see or hear this. I remember multiple times over the last few years people thought our signals were getting stolen or they knew the plays before snap somehow. But I think it’s more what the film guy has pointed out this week that the book is kind out on Sark and his tendencies.
 

Yes it still works on lesser opponents but when it comes to elite opponents it just doesn’t. 

On top of all this for whatever reason sark clams up and goes conservative in the red zone against good teams. I for one am sick of the constant praise on Sark about misdirection bla bla. Show us on the scoreboard against top tier opponents. Based on what we saw against Ohio State it seems like Sark mailed it in, rolled out same old play book, no preparation with schemes specific for the opponent.

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Posted
47 minutes ago, chitown bevo said:

On top of all this for whatever reason sark clams up and goes conservative in the red zone against good teams. I for one am sick of the constant praise on Sark about misdirection bla bla. Show us on the scoreboard against top tier opponents. Based on what we saw against Ohio State it seems like Sark mailed it in, rolled out same old play book, no preparation with schemes specific for the opponent.

Sark's script has been photocopied and passed around. Everyone knows it. He doesn't take what the defense gives him, rather he crafts a narrative and attempts to shove it down the opponents throat. Works against shitty teams. When it doesn't work, the script doesn't shift, at all. The script continues on exactly as written and known by our opponents, because Sark is brilliant. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Sark's script has been photocopied and passed around. Everyone knows it. He doesn't take what the defense gives him, rather he crafts a narrative and attempts to shove it down the opponents throat. Works against shitty teams. When it doesn't work, the script doesn't shift, at all. The script continues on exactly as written and known by our opponents, because Sark is brilliant. 

It's no different than another coach we had that recruited very well. Fortunately for him the best QB in the history of college FB fell into his lap. I doubt another VY walks through the door at Belmont in my lifetime.

Sark, just like Mack, is too stubborn to self-analyze and make the chances necessary that will continue to keep him from beating the Day's and the Smart's. The only hope is CDC steps in and shows him what other coaches are seeing and makes him make critical strategic changes, and that's not likely.

Posted
24 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Sark's script has been photocopied and passed around. Everyone knows it. He doesn't take what the defense gives him, rather he crafts a narrative and attempts to shove it down the opponents throat. Works against shitty teams. When it doesn't work, the script doesn't shift, at all. The script continues on exactly as written and known by our opponents, because Sark is brilliant. 

Stubborn guy

Posted

My first time on surly since the tOSU debacle, but I don't think it's debatable Sark called a piss poor game on offense.

Yes, Arch being a bit off and Matt Patricia doing his job well made things difficult, but Sark didn't adjust until it was way too late.

Yes, this has been said many times before but it needs to be said again...your defense holds any team to 14 points on the road there is no excuse for grabbing an L.

Not calling for Sarks head on a stick just yet, (no more decade long G5 coach experiments) but I need to see much better next time we face a team that can fog a mirror.

Posted

With the 5 on 3 lineup in the middle, 10-Wedge is never going to make it. 

I was thinking (especially after the earlier example) that the brilliant play call would have McJaggerson and Endries assault the guys guarding them, and Arch would roll left with Baxter out front and keep or throw it depending on how close the  one or two defender would come.

I appreciate the desire to man up and stuff it down their throats, but 5 on 3 in the middle pretty much says Nope.

Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

With the 5 on 3 lineup in the middle, 10-Wedge is never going to make it. 

I was thinking (especially after the earlier example) that the brilliant play call would have McJaggerson and Endries assault the guys guarding them, and Arch would roll left with Baxter out front and keep or throw it depending on how close the  one or two defender would come.

I appreciate the desire to man up and stuff it down their throats, but 5 on 3 in the middle pretty much says Nope.

Bootleg fake right  rolls left with Baxter or Wisner with a feign engagement then a pitch option. I'll have to look closer but it appeared 7 guys were inside box or to the right. 

Am I obsessed with bootlegs? Yes, blame James Brown. 

Edit- So I went back and double checked. I was wrong. There were 8 guys inside the box or right

Screenshot_20250903_103518_YouTube.thumb.jpg.6c9b026c326b62cc913f9f6378f24705.jpgScreenshot_20250903_103645_YouTube.thumb.jpg.4b15e2a5f83e739aa32c92f51856d364.jpgScreenshot_20250903_103740_YouTube.thumb.jpg.33273ab68ead57655ade4d6e496af199.jpg

Edited by BurntEyes
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Posted

The 4th down fail all comes down to execution. We would’ve been bitching if arch threw it saying he could’ve just ran it in. I don’t think the play call was bad for a qb sneak it was executed as poorly as possible, though . If a RB would’ve tried we would been bitching to keep it in arch’s hands( well maybe not because he sucked lol)

All in all, when we face a good time everything goes sideways on a 4 down call for us. Whether it be the play call, the players, or all the above.

Not mad for him going for it because tOSU just went for it and got it. We were at the freaking 1. But at this point, if we know we are never gonna get in the red zone with the struggles, then I guess kick it.

Posted
2 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Bootleg fake right  rolls left with Baxter or Wisner with a feign engagement with a pitch option. I'll have to look closer but it appeared 7 guys were inside box or to the right. 

Am I obsessed with bootlegs? Yes, blame James Brown. 

It looked to me like there were 5 on or a half-step back in the middle, two more backer-types a step or two back, in the  middle, and two dbacks on each side, also close to the four receivers. Figgered the receivers could delay the guys covering them enough to give Arch and CJ (or Wisner) at least a step or two. 

Of course, if it failed, you were trying too hard to be cute, but if (when) the sneak failed, your team just didn't execute the sneak.

Posted
1 minute ago, TexasExe14 said:

The 4th down fail all comes down to execution. We would’ve been bitching if arch threw it saying he could’ve just ran it in.

 

Welp... There it is.

Posted
3 minutes ago, TexasExe14 said:

The 4th down fail all comes down to execution. We would’ve been bitching if arch threw it saying he could’ve just ran it in. I don’t think the play call was bad for a qb sneak it was executed as poorly as possible, though . If a RB would’ve tried we would been bitching to keep it in arch’s hands( well maybe not because he sucked lol)

All in all, when we face a good time everything goes sideways on a 4 down call for us. Whether it be the play call, the players, or all the above.

Not mad for him going for it because tOSU just went for it and got it. We were at the freaking 1. But at this point, if we know we are never gonna get in the red zone with the struggles, then I guess kick it.

With that formation by OSU not having an audible outside left run is a fucking failure. It was 9 on 6. NINE on six. 

If this was the first time it happened and wasn't a recurring problem we wouldn't be discussing it either.

Posted
9 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

It looked to me like there were 5 on or a half-step back in the middle, two more backer-types a step or two back, in the  middle, and two dbacks on each side, also close to the four receivers. Figgered the receivers could delay the guys covering them enough to give Arch and CJ (or Wisner) at least a step or two. 

Of course, if it failed, you were trying too hard to be cute, but if (when) the sneak failed, your team just didn't execute the sneak.

I'm not an OC, but I am capable of looking at a formation and being aware of specific opponents abilities. 

It's fine to line up in the sneak, it's smart in fact. However, given OSU's abilities and front 7, the performance last game and this one prior to that point I would think some sort of audible, from that formation, into an outside run, with a big, very fast QB would be in the playbook.

It wasn't, because it wasn't in the script and adjustments were not made in game to what the OSU defense was doing. Given OSU had a new DC, I find it, mind bottling that in game adjustments were not made. Hell, the play prior, with CJ, similar call, similar results.

Posted

2023 4th and 1 vs KSU. Game on the line. Instead of running up the middle Maalik Murphy fakes the dive and pitches at 45 degree angle to Baxter who is already running. 
 

he dodges the only tackler, gets the 1st down, and runs untouched 45 yards for a TD

Posted
16 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

I'm not an OC, but I am capable of looking at a formation and being aware of specific opponents abilities. 

It's fine to line up in the sneak, it's smart in fact. However, given OSU's abilities and front 7, the performance last game and this one prior to that point I would think some sort of audible, from that formation, into an outside run, with a big, very fast QB would be in the playbook.

It wasn't, because it wasn't in the script and adjustments were not made in game to what the OSU defense was doing. Given OSU had a new DC, I find it, mind bottling that in game adjustments were not made. Hell, the play prior, with CJ, similar call, similar results.

I actually find it mind boggling. And that's even worse.

Posted

It’s pretty obvious Sark picked up and in his own way brought to Texas stuff from Saban in terms of building culture, talent ID, winning recruiting and portal wars etc. What he unfortunately didn’t and couldn’t bring was Saban in his ear and up his ass “this isn’t fucking working Steve, do something different or let’s do this”

Posted

If you had told me Friday night that tOSU would score only 14 points, I probably would have bet my hat, ass, and suitcase on Texas.

It's a damned good thing, because I'd be a bareheaded, no-cheeks, empty-handed fucker.

At least I still have a hat and a suitcase...

Posted
1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

It’s pretty obvious Sark picked up and in his own way brought to Texas stuff from Saban in terms of building culture, talent ID, winning recruiting and portal wars etc. What he unfortunately didn’t and couldn’t bring was Saban in his ear and up his ass “this isn’t fucking working Steve, do something different or let’s do this”

Said it better than me. Has Saban had a bad coordinator ever?

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